Burford Capital (GB:BUR)
LSE:BUR
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Burford Capital
(LSE:BUR)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
342.00 p
▲(9.40% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/28/26
Overall score reflects uneven fundamentals led by volatile cash flow and higher leverage, reinforced by very weak technicals (deeply below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include constructive earnings-call operational momentum and liquidity, while valuation is difficult to anchor due to a negative P/E and only modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Consistently high underwriting returns (ROIC)
Sustained ROIC near 80% demonstrates durable underwriting skill and pricing power in litigation finance. This repeatable return profile underpins long‑term investment economics, allowing the firm to generate attractive realized returns over multiple cycle years despite timing variability.
Negative Factors
Lumpy cash generation and recent negative operating cash flow
Frequent swings to negative operating and free cash flow show realizations are timing dependent and unpredictable. This lumpy cash profile raises funding and execution risk, constrains reinvestment or distributions, and makes multi‑period planning and durable earnings conversion harder.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistently high underwriting returns (ROIC)
Sustained ROIC near 80% demonstrates durable underwriting skill and pricing power in litigation finance. This repeatable return profile underpins long‑term investment economics, allowing the firm to generate attractive realized returns over multiple cycle years despite timing variability.
Read all positive factors
Burford Capital (BUR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£682.79M
Dividend Yield1.22%
Average Volume (3M)167.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.7
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth-37.43%
EPS Growth-67.39%
CountryUK
Employees160
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.13
Shares Outstanding218,422,440
10 Day Avg. Volume218,918
30 Day Avg. Volume167,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.54
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)5.78
P/FCF Ratio-65.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£719.19Price Target Upside130.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)£620.46M
Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burford Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides legal finance products and services. The company offers asset management services, including core legal finance, complex strategies, and post-settlement finance. The company was incorpora...
How the Company Makes Money
Burford primarily makes money by deploying its own balance sheet (and, where applicable, third-party capital) into legal finance assets and earning returns that are typically contingent on successful case outcomes. Its core revenue stream is inves...
Burford Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely constructive operational picture: robust new business (39% increase in definitive commitments) and meaningful portfolio growth (modeled realizations up ~$700 million to >$5.2 billion), with stable returns and healthy liquidity ($621 million cash). The primary negatives were timing and throughput-driven softness in near-term realizations versus a strong 2024 (fewer very large outcomes), several accounting-driven unrealized marks (including a $22 million proteins-related charge), and elevated professional fees. Management emphasized the distinction between cash performance and GAAP accounting marks and remains confident in long-term economics (target ROE ~20%). Overall, strong underwriting and growth outweigh 2025 timing and accounting headwinds, but short-term cash/earnings remain uneven due to court timing and specific counterparties.Positive Updates
Strong New Business Growth
New definitive commitments increased 39% year-over-year, driving a 20% growth rate in the portfolio base and adding a net $700 million of modeled realizations, taking modeled realizations to north of $5.2 billion (up from $4.5 billion).
Negative Updates
Realizations Below Prior-Year Peak
Despite similar counts of realization events (69 vs 71), total dollar realizations were lower than fiscal 2024 because the year lacked the 'big chunky' outcomes that drove 2024’s record, which reduced near-term income and cash receipts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong New Business Growth
New definitive commitments increased 39% year-over-year, driving a 20% growth rate in the portfolio base and adding a net $700 million of modeled realizations, taking modeled realizations to north of $5.2 billion (up from $4.5 billion).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management explicitly declined to provide forward guidance on 2026 realizations, but gave a quantitative update: FY‑25 added a net $700M of modeled realizations taking modeled realizations to $5.2B; the Principal Finance portfolio is $3.9B (YPF ~ $1.7B), with deployed cost ≈ $1.7B and unrealized fair value just under $500M (~27–28% of deployed cost); new definitive commitments rose 39% and the base‑portfolio metric grew ~20%; deployments were ~$457M; 69 assets produced realizations in FY‑25 vs 71 in FY‑24, gains were $579M (vs $508M prior year) with somewhat higher losses, rolling 3‑year average realizations hit a high, historical ROIC ≈82–83% (two‑year ROIC ~81%) and modeled ROIC ~110%, long‑term ROE target ~20%; liquidity finished at $621M, asset‑management cash receipts were $32M (income $36M), the firm issued $500M at 7.5% to refinance bonds (weighted average debt life 5.7 years vs asset conclusion <3 years, active capital just over 3 years), and the dividend remains $0.125 per share (~$25M annually).Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
36
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 339.85M | 472.25M | 1.08B | 270.62M | -12.76M |
| Gross Profit | 193.77M | 341.23M | 1.06B | 195.62M | -18.05M |
| EBITDA | 239.98M | 253.59M | 821.19M | 113.38M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 63.88M | 146.48M | 610.52M | 30.51M | -56.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.64B | 6.18B | 5.84B | 4.29B | 3.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 656.16M | 548.95M | 328.11M | 107.66M | 180.25M |
| Total Debt | 2.15B | 1.78B | 1.55B | 1.27B | 1.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.51B | 2.92B | 2.63B | 1.90B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.45B | 2.42B | 2.29B | 1.74B | 1.55B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.91M | 216.06M | -277.89M | -466.51M | -585.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.62M | 216.72M | -274.68M | -466.10M | -585.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.98M | -661.00K | -3.21M | -407.00K | -285.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 135.19M | 33.83M | 389.53M | 399.13M | 444.83M |
Burford Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
312.60
Price Trends
619.74
Negative
653.64
Negative
786.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-82.07
Positive
19.25
Positive
12.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 312.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 529.06, below the 50-day MA of 619.74, and below the 200-day MA of 786.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -82.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.25 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BUR.
Burford Capital Risk Analysis
Burford Capital disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burford Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burford Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | £27.35B | 3.00 | 23.76% | 2.44% | 62.80% | 48.86% | |
76 Outperform | £1.70B | ― | 2.22% | 2.40% | 64.34% | 77.61% | |
71 Outperform | £478.21M | 10.05 | 9.58% | 5.79% | 82.69% | 21.07% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | £4.47B | 5.37 | 23.35% | 4.13% | 28.34% | 44.04% | |
54 Neutral | £2.05B | 56.55 | 4.25% | 2.85% | 62.91% | -15.13% | |
52 Neutral | £682.79M | 30.74 | 2.49% | 1.22% | -37.43% | -67.39% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:BUR
Burford Capital
312.60
-573.34
-64.72%
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Burford Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Burford Capital Awaits Impact of Second Circuit Ruling in YPF Case
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
Burford Capital said the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has issued its decision in the Petersen and Eton Park claims against the Republic of Argentina and YPF, a high-profile matter for the legal financier. The company will issue a f...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Completes $3.9 Million Share Buyback for Deferred Compensation Plan
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Burford Capital has completed a board-authorized share repurchase program tied to future obligations under its deferred compensation plan, buying 475,000 ordinary shares in U.S. open-market transactions for about $3.9 million. The repurchased shar...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Burford Executives Boost Stakes as Firm Launches $5m Share Buyback and New RSU Grants
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Burford Capital’s top executives have ploughed more than $4.3 million of their cash compensation into over 500,000 of the firm’s ordinary shares via its Deferred Compensation Plan, lifting CEO Christopher Bogart and CIO Jonathan Molot&...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Posts Strong 2025 Commitments Amid Case Delays, Raises Modeled Realizations
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Burford Capital reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting strong business origination with new definitive commitments rising 39% and portfolio modeled realizations increasing by $700 million to $5.2 billion. Despite robu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Sets February 26 Date for 2025 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
Burford Capital has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for February 26, 2026, with publication set for 8:00 a.m. EST. The disclosure will be accompanied by a same-day investor and analyst conference ca...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Burford Capital Upsizes and Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering to Refinance 2026 Debt
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
Burford Capital has priced and upsized a private offering of $500 million in 8.500% senior notes due 2034, issued by its wholly owned subsidiary Burford Capital Global Finance LLC and guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent company. T...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Burford Capital to Raise $450 Million via Private Issue of 2034 Senior Notes
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
Burford Capital has launched a planned private offering of $450 million in senior unsecured notes due 2034 through its wholly owned subsidiary, Burford Capital Global Finance LLC, with the notes guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Issues New Shares to Satisfy Long-Term Incentive Plan Awards
Neutral
Jan 5, 2026
Burford Capital has issued 8,940 new ordinary shares to satisfy the vesting of restricted share units under its 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan, following the realization of awards at the end of December 2025. The new shares will be admitted to trad...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.