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Burford Capital (GB:BUR)
LSE:BUR

Burford Capital (BUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Burford Capital

(LSE:BUR)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
1,115.00p
▲(14.18%Upside)
Burford Capital's overall score reflects a solid balance sheet with no debt and improved cash flow management. The positive earnings call and supportive corporate events provide an optimistic outlook. However, operational challenges and declining profitability weigh against the stock, keeping the score moderate.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Burford reported a better than expected quarter as capital provision income and total revenue were above consensus estimates.
Market Position
Burford is the market leader in litigation finance, an industry undergoing structural transition as more corporations opt to outsource their litigation.
Negative Factors
New Business Metrics
New Burford-only capital provision direct commitments decreased in 3Q compared to 2Q, indicating a slight decline in new business metrics year to date.

Burford Capital (BUR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBurford Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides legal finance products and services. The company offers asset management services, including core legal finance, complex strategies, and post-settlement finance. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
How the Company Makes MoneyBurford Capital makes money primarily through its litigation finance activities. The company provides capital to clients engaged in legal disputes, and in return, it receives a portion of the proceeds from successful claims. This financial arrangement allows clients to mitigate the financial risks of litigation while enabling Burford to earn substantial returns on its investments. The company also generates revenue through asset management, managing third-party funds and earning management and performance fees. Additionally, Burford engages in judgment enforcement and monetization, where it assists in the collection of awarded judgments, further diversifying its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with law firms and corporations enhance Burford's ability to identify and fund high-value legal opportunities, contributing significantly to its earnings.

Burford Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong new business commitments and significant cash realizations, indicating robust financial health. However, increased expenses and unresolved litigation present challenges. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a strong performance in key areas.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record New Business Commitments
The company experienced a robust volume of new business, tripling definitive commitments and doubling deployments compared to previous periods.
Significant Increase in Realizations and Cash Generation
Realizations were up significantly compared to the first quarters in the last two years, reaching $163 million. This indicates a strong cash generation capability.
Substantial Revenue Growth
Revenue increased significantly year over year, with a 5x increase in capital provision income compared to the first quarter of last year.
High IRR Achievement
A $100 million investment concluded with a 40% IRR despite a lower ROIC, demonstrating efficient capital recycling.
Successful Asset Management Income Growth
Asset management income rose to $14 million from $7 million year over year, with $7 million in realized cash.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Gains Were Fewer
The quarter experienced somewhat fewer unrealized gains, though the company does not view this as a negative trend.
Increased Expenses
Expenses rose to $40 million in the quarter, partly due to higher long-term incentive compensation and increased G&A expenses.
Unresolved YPF Litigation
The YPF-related litigation is pending appeal, and while the IMF package requires Argentina to address debts, the resolution timing remains uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Burford Capital First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company reported significant growth in various metrics. New business volume was robust, with definitive commitments tripling and deployments doubling compared to previous quarters. The company achieved $163 million in realizations, marking a substantial increase from the first quarters of the last two years. This activity contributed to a 5x year-over-year increase in capital provision income. Liquidity was strong, with the company holding $548 million in cash at the end of the quarter. The realization of gains and cash generation played a critical role in positioning Burford Capital well for future business. The firm also highlighted the initiation of a new U.S. claim family, which contributed to the quarter's success. Despite fewer unrealized gains, the focus remained on long-term business performance rather than short-term fluctuations. The company's strategic efforts continue to diversify its portfolio across jurisdiction, subject matter, duration, risk profile, and size.

Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Burford Capital shows a mixed financial performance with a robust balance sheet free of debt, improved cash flow management, and strong equity ratios. However, it faces challenges with declining profitability and operational losses as indicated by its income statement.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Burford Capital has shown a volatile revenue trajectory with significant fluctuations. The gross profit margin was stable in 2024, but net profit margin decreased due to a drastic decline in revenue and operating losses. The EBIT margin turned negative, indicating operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with no debt in 2024, improving its debt-to-equity position significantly. Equity ratio remains strong, indicating a healthy balance sheet and reduced financial risk.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Burford Capital's free cash flow improved significantly in 2024, turning positive after previous years of negative cash flows. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
84.65M341.23M1.08B158.09M-12.76M316.68M
Gross Profit
78.22M341.23M1.06B149.85M-18.05M311.83M
EBIT
17.53M-769.22M815.67M186.41M-75.08M208.63M
EBITDA
73.77M0.00821.19M0.000.00218.93M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-69.70M146.48M610.52M97.46M-56.43M143.28M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
469.93M469.93M328.11M107.66M180.25M322.19M
Total Assets
6.18B6.18B5.84B4.29B3.52B2.73B
Total Debt
0.000.001.55B1.27B1.03B681.33M
Net Debt
-469.93M-469.93M-220.55M1.16B854.20M359.14M
Total Liabilities
2.92B2.92B2.63B1.90B1.58B1.03B
Stockholders Equity
2.42B2.42B2.29B1.74B1.55B1.70B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-27.75M216.06M-277.89M-466.51M-585.65M180.31M
Operating Cash Flow
-27.65M216.72M-274.68M-466.10M-585.36M180.67M
Investing Cash Flow
-108.00K-661.00K-3.21M-407.00K-285.00K-360.00K
Financing Cash Flow
215.43M33.83M389.53M399.13M444.83M-45.21M

Burford Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price976.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1001.39
Negative
100DMA
1061.21
Negative
200DMA
1043.48
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-16.58
Negative
RSI
47.45
Neutral
STOCH
67.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 976.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 988.86, below the 50-day MA of 1001.39, and below the 200-day MA of 1043.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -16.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BUR.

Burford Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
£2.30B3.5916.46%5.46%1.20%161.62%
GBEMG
74
Outperform
£2.01B8.8017.94%7.32%18.85%26.14%
GBBPT
71
Outperform
£2.49B37.497.60%3.05%33.12%-7.67%
GBBUR
68
Neutral
£2.18B13.728.78%1.01%-18.31%-36.88%
64
Neutral
$12.86B9.797.78%16985.65%12.28%-7.82%
63
Neutral
£3.27B13.904.88%7.96%-5.51%1596.15%
$4.12B8.2240.46%8.30%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BUR
Burford Capital
976.50
-89.47
-8.39%
GB:EMG
Man Group plc
178.30
-57.50
-24.39%
GB:ABDN
Aberdeen Group
195.70
60.58
44.83%
NINTF
Ninety One
1.80
-0.20
-10.00%
GB:BPT
Bridgepoint Group Plc
300.80
97.61
48.04%
GB:PHLL
Petershill Partners PLC
215.00
41.41
23.86%

Burford Capital Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Burford Capital Completes Share Purchases for Director Compensation
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

Burford Capital Limited announced the completion of purchases of its ordinary shares to satisfy non-employee directors’ awards under its 2021 Non-Employee Directors’ Share Plan. The transaction involved acquiring 29,227 shares on the London Stock Exchange at a blended price of 943.7355p per share. This move reflects Burford’s commitment to compensating its non-employee directors through share grants, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder structure and aligning directors’ interests with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital to Acquire Shares for Director Awards
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

Burford Capital has announced its intention to purchase its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange to fulfill awards granted to its non-employee directors under the 2021 Non-Employee Directors’ Share Plan. This strategic move, involving the acquisition of 29,227 shares valued at approximately £274,000, is expected to reinforce Burford’s commitment to its directors and could potentially impact its market positioning by demonstrating confidence in its financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Burford Capital Announces 2024 Final Dividend Conversion Rate
Neutral
May 30, 2025

Burford Capital has announced the pound sterling conversion rate for its final dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024. Shareholders who opt to receive their dividend in pound sterling will receive 4.625498 pence per ordinary share, based on the exchange rate set on May 29, 2025. This announcement is part of Burford’s ongoing financial operations and reflects its commitment to providing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital Announces Executive Compensation Plan and Share Investment
Positive
May 16, 2025

Burford Capital announced the grant of restricted share units (RSUs) and performance-based RSUs (PSUs) to its executive officers as part of its 2025 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan, following shareholder approval. This move, part of Burford’s annual compensation cycle, is designed to align management incentives with the company’s performance goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder interests. Additionally, Chief Financial Officer Jordan Licht invested in company shares through the Burford Capital Deferred Compensation Plan, reflecting confidence in the firm’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital’s 2025 AGM Resolutions Approved, Strengthening Strategic Position
Positive
May 15, 2025

Burford Capital announced that all resolutions proposed at its 2025 annual general meeting were approved by shareholders. Key outcomes include the approval of a final dividend of 6.25¢ per ordinary share, re-election of directors, reappointment of KPMG as the external auditor, and authorization for the board to issue shares and make market acquisitions. These decisions reflect strong shareholder support and are likely to enhance Burford’s operational capabilities and strategic positioning in the legal finance industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing Changes
Burford Capital’s MSCI Classification Shift to USA
Neutral
May 14, 2025

Burford Capital announced that its country classification by MSCI will change from the United Kingdom to the USA, effective June 2, 2025. This reclassification will result in Burford being added to the MSCI USA Indexes and removed from the MSCI United Kingdom Indexes, potentially leading to a shift in passive holdings from London to New York, impacting its stock lines.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Reports Strong First Quarter 2025 Results
Positive
May 7, 2025

Burford Capital announced robust financial results for the first quarter of 2025, indicating strong momentum in their portfolio despite the typically lighter seasonal period. The company’s performance highlights the uncorrelated nature of legal finance, which positions it well in the current volatile market environment. Burford is focused on growing its platform, converting its portfolio into cash realizations, and generating attractive returns on capital, which are key drivers of shareholder value.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Announces Shareholder Webcast to Discuss Financial Results
Positive
May 6, 2025

Burford Capital announced it will host an audio webcast for retail shareholders on June 5, 2025, where CEO Christopher Bogart and CFO Jordan Licht will discuss the company’s financial results and other disclosures. This initiative reflects Burford’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its shareholders, potentially enhancing investor relations and providing insights into its operational strategies.

Financial Disclosures
Burford Capital to Announce 1Q25 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

Burford Capital announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 7, 2025, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic positioning in the legal finance industry.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Burford Capital Defends Directors Amid ISS Recommendation
Neutral
Apr 28, 2025

Burford Capital Limited is urging shareholders to disregard the recommendation by Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) to vote against the re-election of directors Christopher Halmy and Robert Gillespie. The company argues that ISS’s recommendation is based on a misunderstanding of facts and emphasizes the directors’ significant contributions, including overseeing Burford’s successful transition to a US domestic public company. Glass Lewis supports the re-election of both directors, highlighting their qualifications and the successful engagement with the SEC that solidified Burford’s industry leadership.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Issues New Shares Following LTIP Vesting
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Burford Capital announced the vesting of restricted share units and performance-based restricted share units for its managerial staff under the 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan. The company issued 340,685 new shares to satisfy these awards, which will be listed on both the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. This issuance increases Burford’s total voting rights, impacting shareholder calculations under UK financial regulations.

Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Enhances Shareholder Engagement with Digital Proxy Access
Positive
Apr 4, 2025

Burford Capital has filed its definitive proxy statement, additional proxy soliciting materials, and the 2024 annual report with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The company has opted to provide shareholders with internet access to these materials, facilitating online voting for its upcoming annual general meeting on May 14, 2025. This move reflects Burford’s commitment to leveraging digital solutions for shareholder engagement, potentially enhancing transparency and accessibility for its stakeholders.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital Hosts 2025 Investor Day, Strengthening Market Position
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

Burford Capital hosted its 2025 Investor Day in New York City and via webcast, providing a strategic update to investors. This event underscores Burford’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially strengthening its market position and investor relations in the legal finance industry.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital Launches $20 Million Share Repurchase Program
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025

Burford Capital announced a share repurchase program authorized by its board of directors to buy back up to $20 million of its ordinary shares. This initiative is linked to Burford’s Deferred Compensation Plan and aims to manage future obligations, with shares potentially being used for compensation plans. The program will be executed in the U.S. under specific regulatory guidelines and can be adjusted by Burford based on market conditions, reflecting the company’s strategic approach to managing its equity and compensation structures.

Other
Burford Capital Executives Invest Heavily in Company Shares
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

Burford Capital announced significant investments by its executive officers and a non-executive director in the company’s ordinary shares, totaling over $17.5 million. This move reflects strong confidence in the company’s performance and future prospects, as highlighted by CEO Christopher Bogart, who emphasized alignment with shareholders and the potential for generating shareholder value.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.