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Burford Capital (GB:BUR)
LSE:BUR
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Burford Capital (BUR) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:BUR

Burford Capital

(LSE:BUR)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
760.00p
▲(12.93% Upside)
Burford Capital's overall score is driven by a strong balance sheet and favorable valuation, indicating potential undervaluation. However, operational challenges and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score. The earnings call provides a positive outlook with growth potential, but market concerns and litigation delays present risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Balance Sheet
A strong balance sheet with no debt reduces financial risk and provides Burford Capital with flexibility to invest in growth opportunities.
Portfolio Growth
Significant growth in deployments indicates robust demand for Burford's services, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term revenue growth.
Steady Internal Rate of Return
Consistent IRR reflects effective management and investment strategy, ensuring sustained profitability and investor confidence over the long term.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
A significant drop in revenue suggests potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum, which could impact financial performance and strategic initiatives.
Litigation Delays
Litigation delays can lead to unpredictable cash flows and financial results, complicating planning and potentially affecting investor sentiment.
Operational Challenges
Operational challenges and declining profitability indicate potential inefficiencies, which could hinder Burford's ability to capitalize on growth opportunities.

Burford Capital (BUR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBurford Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides legal finance products and services. The company offers asset management services, including core legal finance, complex strategies, and post-settlement finance. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
How the Company Makes MoneyBurford Capital generates revenue primarily through its litigation finance operations. The company funds legal claims and receives a portion of the proceeds from successful outcomes, typically structured as a percentage of the settlement or judgment amount. Additionally, Burford earns fees from its portfolio investments, where it invests in a diversified range of legal claims across various jurisdictions and sectors. The firm may also engage in providing legal risk management services, which can include advisory fees. Significant partnerships with law firms and corporate clients further enhance Burford's revenue potential by expanding its investment opportunities and accessing a broader array of legal disputes.

Burford Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a business with strong growth in new commitments and a robust, diversified portfolio. However, market concerns over specific cases and litigation delays, along with share price frustrations, pose challenges. Overall, the highlights of business growth and portfolio strength are tempered by these concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Substantial Growth in New Business
Definitive commitments up more than 50%, overall portfolio up 15% year-to-date, with deployments up 61% in the third quarter.
Strong Portfolio Performance
IRRs remain steady at 26% on $3.6 billion of realizations, with a 43% ROIC achieved in 2025 despite a large event ending quickly in Q1.
Diverse and Expanding Portfolio
The portfolio shows significant diversity in geography and case type, contributing to the robustness and growth potential of the business.
Positive Asymmetry in Case Outcomes
No large case losses, with 4 large case wins potentially generating over $100 million each, indicating strong forward momentum.
Negative Updates
Market Overreaction to YPF Case Developments
Concerns over the YPF case being dismissed on Forum non conveniens grounds led to market overreaction, although management remains bullish.
Impact of Litigation Delays on Financials
Delays in case progress have caused accounting noise, negatively affecting unrealized gains due to duration extensions.
Challenges in Predicting Realization Timing
Despite a high number of case realizations, the lack of big chunky cases has affected realized gain numbers, highlighting unpredictability in case outcomes.
Share Price Performance Concerns
Management and shareholders express frustration over share price decline, with calls for buybacks being weighed against prudential management considerations.
Company Guidance
During Burford Capital's Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company highlighted several key metrics indicating strong business performance and growth. Deployments increased by 61% in the third quarter, while definitive commitments rose by over 50%, contributing to a 20% annualized increase in the overall portfolio. Despite a decline in capital provision income due to duration extensions, the firm maintained a steady internal rate of return (IRR) of 26% on $3.6 billion of realizations. Burford also noted that its portfolio's weighted average life remains stable at around 2.5 to 3 years, and the firm is on track to meet its ambitious goal of doubling the business by 2030, with ongoing growth in both new business and realization volumes.

Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Burford Capital shows a mixed financial performance. The balance sheet is strong with no debt, indicating reduced financial risk. However, the income statement reveals operational challenges with declining profitability, and the cash flow has improved, suggesting potential for recovery.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Burford Capital has shown a volatile revenue trajectory with significant fluctuations. The gross profit margin was stable in 2024, but net profit margin decreased due to a drastic decline in revenue and operating losses. The EBIT margin turned negative, indicating operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with no debt in 2024, improving its debt-to-equity position significantly. Equity ratio remains strong, indicating a healthy balance sheet and reduced financial risk.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Burford Capital's free cash flow improved significantly in 2024, turning positive after previous years of negative cash flows. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue193.09M472.25M1.08B270.62M-12.76M316.68M
Gross Profit129.52M341.23M1.06B195.62M-18.05M311.83M
EBITDA125.94M253.59M821.19M113.38M0.00218.93M
Net Income75.33M146.48M610.52M30.51M-56.43M143.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.33B6.18B5.84B4.29B3.52B2.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments372.25M548.95M328.11M107.66M180.25M322.19M
Total Debt1.79B1.78B1.55B1.27B1.03B681.33M
Total Liabilities3.10B2.92B2.63B1.90B1.58B1.03B
Stockholders Equity2.50B2.42B2.29B1.74B1.55B1.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-103.52M216.06M-277.89M-466.51M-585.65M180.31M
Operating Cash Flow-102.89M216.72M-274.68M-466.10M-585.36M180.67M
Investing Cash Flow-625.00K-661.00K-3.21M-407.00K-285.00K-360.00K
Financing Cash Flow-114.79M33.83M389.53M399.13M444.83M-45.21M

Burford Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price673.00
Price Trends
50DMA
862.85
Negative
100DMA
921.53
Negative
200DMA
980.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-46.78
Positive
RSI
21.95
Positive
STOCH
24.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 673 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 778.91, below the 50-day MA of 862.85, and below the 200-day MA of 980.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -46.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.95 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BUR.

Burford Capital Risk Analysis

Burford Capital disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burford Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Burford Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
£3.41B4.6719.58%10.11%11.03%176.31%
79
Outperform
$3.90B13.0640.46%5.52%0.18%-6.74%
78
Outperform
£3.65B11.496.50%7.25%-7.11%0.45%
73
Outperform
£2.35B16.9212.23%6.22%-10.85%-42.02%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
62
Neutral
£1.58B8.743.62%1.21%-37.43%-67.39%
58
Neutral
£2.44B42.236.88%2.81%62.91%-15.13%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BUR
Burford Capital
673.00
-421.58
-38.52%
GB:EMG
Man Group plc
207.80
24.09
13.11%
GB:ABDN
Aberdeen Group
201.40
74.73
59.00%
GB:N91
Ninety One
221.00
71.18
47.51%
GB:BPT
Bridgepoint Group Plc
290.60
-28.82
-9.02%
GB:PHLL
Petershill Partners PLC
312.50
119.89
62.24%

Burford Capital Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Announces Strong Financial Results and Strategic Broker Appointment
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

Burford Capital has reported strong financial results for the third quarter and year-to-date 2025, with significant growth and high levels of cash realization from its active portfolio. The company has also announced the appointment of Merrill Lynch International as a joint corporate broker, which is expected to enhance its market positioning alongside existing brokers. This strategic move, coupled with the positive financial performance, underscores Burford’s robust operational growth and its potential impact on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £779.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital Appoints Merrill Lynch as Joint Broker
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

Burford Capital has appointed Merrill Lynch International as a joint corporate broker, enhancing its brokerage team alongside Deutsche Bank AG, Jefferies International Limited, and Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG. This strategic move is expected to strengthen Burford’s market positioning and potentially impact its operations positively by leveraging the expertise of a leading financial institution.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £779.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Burford Capital Sets Date for Q3 2025 Financial Results Release
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025

Burford Capital announced the release date for its third-quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for November 5, 2025. The company will host a conference call for investors and analysts to discuss these results, emphasizing its commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders. This announcement underscores Burford’s strategic focus on maintaining strong communication with its investors and analysts, potentially influencing its market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £851.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Legal Proceedings
Burford Capital Updates on YPF Appeal Proceedings
Negative
Oct 22, 2025

Burford Capital Limited has provided an update on the status of the YPF matter, detailing the appeal process following a $16 billion judgment against Argentina. The appeal is set for oral argument on October 29, 2025, with potential implications for the company’s operations depending on the outcome. The case involves complex legal proceedings and could significantly impact stakeholders, as Argentina’s efforts to delay proceedings may affect the timeline for resolution.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Announces Share Vesting and New Issuance
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

Burford Capital announced the vesting of restricted share units (RSUs) and performance-based RSUs for its Chief Financial Officer, Jordan Licht, under its 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan. The company issued 76,909 new shares to satisfy firm-wide vesting awards, which will be listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. This issuance increases Burford’s total voting rights to 218,888,500, impacting shareholder calculations under UK Financial Conduct Authority rules. Additionally, the Chief Strategy Officer, Elizabeth O’Connell, transferred shares to the CEO, Christopher P. Bogart, as part of estate planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Burford Capital Declares Interim Dividend for 2025
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

Burford Capital announced an interim dividend of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share for the year ending December 31, 2025, with payment expected on December 4, 2025. The board plans to maintain an annual dividend of 12.50 US cents per share, payable semi-annually, without regular increases, which reflects a stable financial strategy aimed at providing consistent returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Burford Capital Executives Invest in Shares Amid Estate Planning Moves
Neutral
Aug 26, 2025

Burford Capital announced that its top executives, including the CEO, CFO, CIO, and General Counsel, have invested in the company’s shares through its deferred compensation plan. Additionally, the Chief Investment Officer, Jonathan Molot, made several estate planning transactions involving interests in a company he controls, which holds a significant number of Burford shares. These transactions are part of routine estate planning and do not alter the beneficial ownership of the shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £1102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth
Aug 13, 2025

Burford Capital’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust performance and strategic growth, despite some challenges. The company reported a strong quarter, marked by significant increases in new business commitments and net income. Successful debt issuance and diversification efforts have positively influenced the company’s outlook. However, uncertainties surrounding the YPF case resolution and challenges in the Asset Management segment were noted as areas of concern.

Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Burford Capital Reports Strong Financial Growth and Capital Raise
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Burford Capital reported significant increases in revenue and profitability for the second quarter and year-to-date 2025, driven by strong demand and a robust business pipeline. The company successfully raised half a billion dollars in new capital, reflecting market confidence and reinforcing its competitive position in the legal finance industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025