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Burford Capital
(LSE:BUR)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
352.00 p
â–²(7.71% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/01/26
The score is driven primarily by uneven financial quality (notably volatile and recently negative cash flow, plus rising leverage) and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages. These are partially offset by a reasonable valuation and an earnings call that emphasized strong liquidity and a sizeable pipeline of modeled future cash realizations despite notable noncash and accounting-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Diversified Litigation Finance Portfolio
The broad portfolio reduces dependence on any single dispute and provides multiple paths to monetization. Geographic and case-type diversification can support more resilient long-term returns as individual matters resolve at different times.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Cash Generation
Cash conversion is unreliable because income recognition and case proceeds do not consistently occur together. Repeated operating and free-cash-flow reversals increase funding needs and make balance-sheet management more dependent on successful realizations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified Litigation Finance Portfolio
The broad portfolio reduces dependence on any single dispute and provides multiple paths to monetization. Geographic and case-type diversification can support more resilient long-term returns as individual matters resolve at different times.
Read all positive factors
Burford Capital (BUR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£693.39M
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)167.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.7
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth-328.60%
EPS Growth-777.95%
CountryUK
Employees172
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.25
Shares Outstanding219,584,500
10 Day Avg. Volume218,918
30 Day Avg. Volume167,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.54
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)5.75
P/FCF Ratio-66.72
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£450.00Price Target Upside37.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)-£1.30B
Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services. The Principal Finance segment provides capital against the underlying...
How the Company Makes Money
Burford makes money primarily by investing capital into legal matters and earning returns that are typically contingent on case outcomes. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Litigation/arbitration finance (principal business): Burford funds some...
Burford Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong, large and diversified core litigation finance business with healthy liquidity, robust new business momentum and substantial modeled future cash realizations. Key metrics included $740 million in cash and marketable securities, $133 million of Q1 new commitments (up 25% vs. recent Q1 average), $1.3 billion of unfunded definitive commitments, and more than $3.8 billion of cumulative realizations. Major negatives centered on the significant noncash YPF appellate loss and related accounting write-down, several one-off charges (including a $19 million case-related expense recognition and FX impact tied to redemption), and fair-value accounting and discount-rate headwinds that compressed reported capital provision income. Management presented a clear plan to focus the narrative on the core portfolio, harvest cash, manage expenses and delever over time while remaining comfortable with current leverage. Given the breadth and strength of operational highlights and cash-related metrics relative to the primarily noncash and manageable lowlights, the overall tone is constructive.Positive Updates
Large, Diversified Portfolio and Scale
237 active assets (around 900 cases when multicase matters counted), widely diversified across geographies and case types, producing accelerating realizations and substantial runway for future cash generation.
Negative Updates
YPF Adverse Appellate Decision and Large Noncash Write-Down
Unfavorable divided appellate panel ruling on the YPF matter led to a substantial noncash valuation write-down of the YPF asset; while management stresses this is noncash and that the investment generated a cash profit of more than $100 million, the accounting impact materially affected reported results and increased near-term volatility.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large, Diversified Portfolio and Scale
237 active assets (around 900 cases when multicase matters counted), widely diversified across geographies and case types, producing accelerating realizations and substantial runway for future cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized strong liquidity and a cash-first view: visibility to >$280M of cash so far in 2026 and $740M of cash & marketable securities at quarter end (after a $500M debt raise in January). Q1 new definitive commitments were $133M with $108M deployed, $1.3B of unfunded definitive commitments and $600M+ of discretionary capacity; the firm reports 237 active assets (≈900 cases) and models >$5B of realizations with a modeled ROIC of ~110% (historical ROIC ~82%), cumulative realizations of $3.8B (>$6B group-wide), and Q1 realizations of $97M from 25 assets. Portfolio metrics: 35% vintage 2015–2019, concluded weighted‑average life 2.6 years (up from 2.3), active deployed capital life 3.4 years, 36 trials/merit hearings scheduled in 2026, and ~23 assets with potential to generate $10M+ in 2026. Balance‑sheet and leverage: net debt ~$1.7B, debt/equity ~1.35x (incurrence covenant 2.0x), debt WAL 5.5 years vs concluded assets WAL 2.6 years; ratings Ba1 (Moody’s) and BB (S&P). They reiterated intent to delever over time, noted a noncash YPF write‑down despite >$100M cash profit, a $19M case‑cost charge, and a ~50bp discount‑rate headwind to capital provision income.Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | -1.54B | 339.85M | 472.25M | 1.08B | 270.62M | 108.12M |
| Gross Profit | 71.31M | 193.77M | 341.23M | 1.06B | 195.62M | 51.67M |
| EBITDA | -56.23M | 84.03M | 253.59M | 821.19M | 113.38M | 5.98M |
| Net Income | -1.69B | 62.57M | 146.48M | 610.52M | 30.51M | -28.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.27B | 6.64B | 6.18B | 5.84B | 4.29B | 3.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 747.26M | 655.92M | 469.93M | 220.55M | 107.66M | 180.25M |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 2.15B | 1.78B | 1.55B | 1.27B | 1.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.80B | 3.51B | 2.92B | 2.63B | 1.90B | 1.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 819.06M | 2.45B | 2.42B | 2.29B | 1.74B | 1.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -241.53M | -29.30M | 216.06M | -277.89M | -466.51M | -585.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -241.34M | -29.01M | 216.72M | -274.68M | -466.10M | -585.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.28M | -8.80M | -661.00K | -3.21M | -407.00K | -285.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 828.64M | 132.41M | 33.83M | 389.53M | 399.13M | 444.83M |
Burford Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
326.80
Price Trends
316.62
Positive
328.09
Negative
491.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.56
Negative
50.59
Neutral
37.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 326.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 315.55, above the 50-day MA of 316.62, and below the 200-day MA of 491.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BUR.
Burford Capital Risk Analysis
Burford Capital disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burford Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burford Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | £28.90B | 5.38 | 17.91% | 3.06% | -25.49% | 3.34% | |
75 Outperform | £1.97B | 15.09 | 4.51% | 2.02% | 68.95% | 109.67% | |
73 Outperform | £503.74M | 9.01 | 9.58% | 6.88% | 5.52% | 18.92% | |
70 Outperform | £5.73B | 12.07 | 18.00% | 4.66% | 6.46% | 6.47% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | £2.86B | 99.07 | 2.71% | 2.99% | 36.24% | -53.64% | |
55 Neutral | £693.39M | 28.73 | 2.53% | 2.89% | -328.60% | -777.95% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:BUR
Burford Capital
316.80
-698.86
-68.81%
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Burford Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital sets August 6 release and investor call for 2Q26 results
Neutral
Jul 28, 2026
Burford Capital has scheduled the release of its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, for August 6, 2026, with the figures to be published before US markets open. The company will host a follow-up conference call and...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Burford Capital Highlights High-Risk Windfall Potential in Cameroon Mining Arbitration
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Burford Capital has disclosed that an ICC arbitration tribunal has issued an award exceeding US$600 million in favor of one of its counterparties in a Cameroon mining dispute. If fully paid today, Burford estimates its entitlement would be more th...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital COO Reports Small Share Acquisition via Dividend Reinvestment
Neutral
Jul 13, 2026
Burford Capital disclosed that Chief Operating Officer Travis Lenkner acquired 376 ordinary shares on June 12, 2026, via an automatic dividend reinvestment feature in his personal brokerage account, which has since been disabled. The routine notif...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Issues New Shares to Satisfy LTIP Awards
Neutral
Jul 2, 2026
Burford Capital has issued 1,823 new ordinary shares to satisfy the vesting of restricted share units under its 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan, following the realization of awards at the end of June. The new shares are expected to be admitted to tr...
Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Issues New Shares for Director Compensation, Updates Voting Rights
Neutral
Jun 25, 2026
Burford Capital has issued 95,212 new ordinary shares to compensate its non-employee directors for their board services in 2026 under its 2021 Non-Employee Directors’ Share Plan. These new shares will be admitted to trading on AIM in London ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Burford Capital issues new shares for director and deferred compensation awards
Neutral
Jun 17, 2026
Burford Capital has granted ordinary shares to its non-employee directors for their 2026 board service under its directors’ share plan, increasing individual potential shareholdings and further aligning board compensation with shareholder in...
Dividends
Burford Capital Sets Sterling Rate for 2025 Final Dividend
Positive
May 29, 2026
Burford Capital has set the pound sterling conversion rate for its 2025 final dividend of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share, which will be paid on June 12, 2026 to shareholders of record on May 22, 2026. Investors choosing payment in sterling will ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Schedules Retail Investor Webcast to Discuss Financial Results
Positive
May 21, 2026
Burford Capital plans to host an audio webcast for retail shareholders on June 18, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. EDT / 3:00 p.m. BST, where CEO Christopher Bogart and CFO Jordan Licht will discuss the firm’s financial results and other disclosures. Re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Burford Capital Shareholders Back All AGM Resolutions, Approve Dividend and Capital Powers
Positive
May 14, 2026
Burford Capital said shareholders approved all resolutions at its 2026 annual general meeting, endorsing the election of new director Rick Noel and re-election of the existing board, with about 70% of outstanding shares represented. Investors also...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Burford Capital Highlights Strong Liquidity Despite YPF-Related Charge in 1Q26
Neutral
May 8, 2026
Burford Capital reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results, highlighting a multi-billion-dollar portfolio of litigation assets that continues to generate substantial cash returns. Management stressed the robustness of the business, noting more ...
Financial Disclosures
Burford Capital Sets May 8 Date for First-Quarter 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Burford Capital plans to release its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 on May 8, 2026, with a detailed results presentation to be posted on its investor website ahead of the announcement. The firm will host a same-day co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.