Burford Capital (BUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.38B
• Dividend Yield: 1.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 167.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.72
• Revenue Growth: -37.43%
• EPS Growth: -67.39%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 160
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): -0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 218,897,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 218,918
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 167,588
• PEG Ratio: -0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.91
• P/FCF Ratio: -65.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £1,174.24
• Price Target Upside: 85.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £685.19M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: 646.00p ▲(2.13% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held back primarily by uneven financial quality—especially negative and volatile cash flow and rising leverage—despite solid reported margins. Technicals also detract due to a clear downtrend and bearish momentum signals. Valuation is not particularly supportive at ~29.8x earnings with a modest ~1.29% yield, while the earnings call adds some support through strong commitments/deployments growth and steady IRRs, offset by litigation timing and sentiment concerns.

Positive Factors

Sustained High Portfolio Returns

A 26% realized IRR (and 43% ROIC noted in results) indicates durable underwriting skill and attractive economics on closed matters. High realized returns support long-term cash-on-cash performance and justify continued capital deployment into litigation finance despite resolution timing variability.

Strong Origination Momentum

Meaningful growth in commitments and deployments demonstrates scalable origination and a growing pipeline of claim investments. Durable deal flow and higher deployment capacity underpin future revenue and potential realizations, supporting the firm's stated ambition to expand materially through 2030.

Diversified Portfolio Profile

Geographic and case-type diversification, with a weighted average life around 2.5–3 years, reduces idiosyncratic risk and smooths return profiles. A balanced book mitigates dependence on single large outcomes and supports more predictable aggregate IRRs over multi-year horizons.

Negative Factors

Negative and Volatile Cash Flow

Recurrent negative operating and free cash flow increases funding risk for a balance-sheet-led business. Lumpy realizations make cash conversion unpredictable, pressuring liquidity during outflows and limiting the company's ability to steadily fund new investments or return capital without external financing.

Rising Leverage

Material increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and covenant risk. With higher debt on a business whose cash generation is timing-dependent, elevated leverage amplifies vulnerability to prolonged case delays and could constrain strategic options like opportunistic buybacks or accelerated deployments.

Realization Timing Uncertainty

Frequent duration extensions and unpredictable realization timing create accounting volatility and unrealized fair-value swings. This structural timing risk undermines forecastability of earnings and cash, complicates capital planning, and can force suboptimal financing or hasty dispositions when liquidity is required.

Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Burford Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides legal finance products and services. The company offers asset management services, including core legal finance, complex strategies, and post-settlement finance. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

How the Company Makes Money

Burford Capital generates revenue primarily through its litigation finance model. The company funds a variety of legal claims, covering the costs associated with litigation or arbitration, and in return, it receives a portion of the proceeds if the case is successful. This revenue model allows Burford to earn returns that are typically higher than traditional financing options, as the company charges a premium for the risk it undertakes. Key revenue streams include returns from resolved legal cases, interest on capital deployed, and fees for advisory services related to legal asset management. Additionally, Burford has established significant partnerships with law firms and corporations, which help to bolster its deal flow and enhance its market presence, further contributing to its earnings.

Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Reported profitability remains solid (2025 net margin ~16% with strong EBIT/EBITDA margins), but earnings have cooled materially versus 2023 and revenue dipped in 2024. Balance-sheet risk has increased with higher leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~0.88), and the biggest drag is highly inconsistent cash generation, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability remains strong on the margin profile (2025 net margin ~16% with ~60% EBIT/EBITDA margins), but earnings power has clearly cooled versus 2023 (net margin ~57%) and revenue declined in 2024 before a modest rebound in 2025. Results also show historical volatility, including a loss year in 2021, which lowers confidence in the durability of reported profits.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is reasonably capitalized with equity of ~2.45bn versus assets of ~6.64bn (2025), but leverage has been trending higher: debt-to-equity rose from ~0.40 (2020) to ~0.88 (2025) as total debt increased. Returns on equity have also come down sharply from 2023 (~26.7%) to 2025 (~2.6%), suggesting weaker efficiency in converting the equity base into profits.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the main weak spot: operating and free cash flow were negative in 2025 (about -29.6m and -29.9m), following another negative operating cash flow year in 2023, highlighting lumpy cash realization. While 2024 showed strong cash conversion (operating cash flow ~216.7m and free cash flow ~216.1m, roughly in line with net income), the swing back to negative cash flow in 2025 increases funding and execution risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Mar 2023	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	371.23M	399.76M	472.25M	1.08B	270.62M	-12.76M
Gross Profit	262.56M	399.76M	341.23M	1.06B	195.62M	-18.05M
EBITDA	153.92M	239.98M	253.59M	821.19M	113.38M	0.00
Net Income	85.99M	63.88M	146.48M	610.52M	30.51M	-56.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.69B	6.64B	6.18B	5.84B	4.29B	3.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	756.74M	656.16M	548.95M	328.11M	107.66M	180.25M
Total Debt	0.00	2.15B	1.78B	1.55B	1.27B	1.03B
Total Liabilities	3.50B	3.51B	2.92B	2.63B	1.90B	1.58B
Stockholders Equity	2.50B	2.45B	2.42B	2.29B	1.74B	1.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	205.85M	-29.91M	216.06M	-277.89M	-466.51M	-585.65M
Operating Cash Flow	206.06M	-29.62M	216.72M	-274.68M	-466.10M	-585.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.47M	-8.98M	-661.00K	-3.21M	-407.00K	-285.00K
Financing Cash Flow	24.45M	135.19M	33.83M	389.53M	399.13M	444.83M

Burford Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 632.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 632.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 676.30, below the 50-day MA of 688.99, and below the 200-day MA of 829.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BUR.

Burford Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POLN	82 Outperform	£463.90M	8.85	9.23%	5.79%	82.69%	21.07%
III	78 Outperform	£31.76B	4.80	25.05%	2.44%	62.80%	48.86%
CLDN	76 Outperform	£1.72B	9.47	6.14%	2.40%	64.34%	77.61%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ICG	67 Neutral	£4.48B	7.64	24.36%	4.13%	28.34%	44.04%
BPT	54 Neutral	£2.05B	33.27	6.88%	2.85%	62.91%	-15.13%
BUR	53 Neutral	£1.38B	29.92	3.62%	1.22%	-37.43%	-67.39%

Burford Capital Corporate Events

Burford Capital Posts Strong 2025 Commitments Amid Case Delays, Raises Modeled Realizations

Burford Capital reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting strong business origination with new definitive commitments rising 39% and portfolio modeled realizations increasing by $700 million to $5.2 billion. Despite robust cash inflows, earnings were tempered by longer case durations and unrealized fair value movements, though management emphasized the portfolio’s quality, declared a modest final dividend and signaled confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and value potential for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital Sets February 26 Date for 2025 Results and Investor Call

Burford Capital has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for February 26, 2026, with publication set for 8:00 a.m. EST. The disclosure will be accompanied by a same-day investor and analyst conference call, a live webcast with replay, and an online presentation, underscoring the firm’s ongoing efforts to maintain active engagement and transparency with capital markets.

The company is providing multiple access options for stakeholders, including pre-registration links and a detailed results presentation on its investor relations website. This coordinated communications push highlights the importance of the 2025 figures for investors monitoring Burford’s performance in the growing legal finance market and its dual listings in New York and London.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital Upsizes and Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering to Refinance 2026 Debt

Burford Capital has priced and upsized a private offering of $500 million in 8.500% senior notes due 2034, issued by its wholly owned subsidiary Burford Capital Global Finance LLC and guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent company. The proceeds will be used primarily to redeem Burford’s existing 5.000% bonds maturing in 2026 and for general corporate purposes, including potential repayment of other indebtedness, signaling an active refinancing strategy to extend its debt maturity profile and potentially strengthen its capital structure while limiting the offer to qualified institutional and non-retail investors in key markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital to Raise $450 Million via Private Issue of 2034 Senior Notes

Burford Capital has launched a planned private offering of $450 million in senior unsecured notes due 2034 through its wholly owned subsidiary, Burford Capital Global Finance LLC, with the notes guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent company. The proceeds are earmarked primarily to redeem Burford’s 5.000% bonds maturing in 2026 and to support general corporate purposes, including potential repayment of other existing debt, a move that is set to extend the company’s debt maturity profile and streamline its capital structure by releasing certain legacy entities from guarantees on outstanding indebtedness; the securities will be sold only to qualified institutional and non-US professional investors under US and international securities regulations, underscoring Burford’s continued reliance on sophisticated capital markets financing to support its growth in legal finance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital Issues New Shares to Satisfy Long-Term Incentive Plan Awards

Burford Capital has issued 8,940 new ordinary shares to satisfy the vesting of restricted share units under its 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan, following the realization of awards at the end of December 2025. The new shares will be admitted to trading on AIM in London and listed on the New York Stock Exchange, bringing Burford’s total issued share capital to 220,667,387 shares, of which 1,769,947 are held in treasury and excluded from voting. As a result, the company’s total voting rights will stand at 218,897,440, a key reference figure for investors monitoring disclosure thresholds under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital Vice Chair Increases Stake Through Deferred Compensation Share Purchase

Burford Capital has disclosed that Vice Chair and non-executive director Chris Halmy has used his cash compensation to acquire 5,076 ordinary shares in the company via its Deferred Compensation Plan. The purchase, executed on 18 December 2025 as fully vested notional shares outside a trading venue, signals additional board-level alignment with shareholders at a time when governance and insider dealings remain closely watched by investors in the legal finance sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital President Acquires Shares Through Deferred Compensation Plan

Burford Capital has disclosed a managerial share transaction involving its President, Aviva Will, who used her deferred cash compensation to acquire 1,045 fully vested ordinary shares through the company’s deferred compensation plan on December 16, 2025. In addition, she was granted 349 unvested notional ordinary shares under the same plan, scheduled to vest in 2027, underscoring ongoing alignment between senior executive incentives and shareholder interests through equity-based compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital’s Vice Chair Acquires Shares Through Deferred Compensation Plan

Burford Capital announced that its Vice Chair, David Perla, has used his deferred cash compensation to purchase 9,706 ordinary shares of the company. This transaction, conducted through Burford’s Deferred Compensation Plan, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning managerial interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Hold with a £718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.

Burford Capital Announces Routine Estate Planning Transactions

Burford Capital announced transactions involving its Chief Investment Officer, Jonathan Molot, who transferred interests in Jonathan Molot LLC among various trusts as part of routine estate planning. These transactions do not alter the beneficial ownership of shares held by Mr. Molot and his family, indicating no impact on the company’s operations or market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BUR) stock is a Buy with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burford Capital stock, see the GB:BUR Stock Forecast page.