Burford Capital (GB:BUR)
LSE:BUR
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Burford Capital
(LSE:BUR)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
352.00 p
â–¼(-2.44% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/01/26
The score is driven primarily by uneven financial quality (notably volatile and recently negative cash flow, plus rising leverage) and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages. These are partially offset by a reasonable valuation and an earnings call that emphasized strong liquidity and a sizeable pipeline of modeled future cash realizations despite notable noncash and accounting-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Diversified Portfolio & Scale
A large, diversified asset base reduces single-case concentration and idiosyncratic risk, improving the predictability of multi-year cash realizations. Scale supports better origination, pricing and portfolio management, making portfolio-level cash generation less dependent on any single outcome.
Negative Factors
Large Noncash YPF Write-Down
Significant noncash write-downs create recurring reported earnings volatility and can reduce transparency on economic performance. Even with cash profits, such accounting hits can pressure reported returns, complicate comparisons across periods and increase stakeholder scrutiny of valuation assumptions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified Portfolio & Scale
A large, diversified asset base reduces single-case concentration and idiosyncratic risk, improving the predictability of multi-year cash realizations. Scale supports better origination, pricing and portfolio management, making portfolio-level cash generation less dependent on any single outcome.
Read all positive factors
Burford Capital (BUR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£749.87M
Dividend Yield1.22%
Average Volume (3M)167.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth-323.47%
EPS Growth-837.46%
CountryUK
Employees160
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding219,069,320
10 Day Avg. Volume218,918
30 Day Avg. Volume167,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.54
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)5.78
P/FCF Ratio-65.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£425.49Price Target Upside17.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)-£1.30B
Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burford Capital Limited, which operates through its various subsidiaries, delivers financial products and services specifically designed for the legal industry. Its comprehensive asset management portfolio includes core litigation finance, intrica...
How the Company Makes Money
Burford primarily makes money by deploying its own balance sheet (and, where applicable, third-party capital) into legal finance assets and earning returns that are typically contingent on successful case outcomes. Its core revenue stream is inves...
Burford Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong, large and diversified core litigation finance business with healthy liquidity, robust new business momentum and substantial modeled future cash realizations. Key metrics included $740 million in cash and marketable securities, $133 million of Q1 new commitments (up 25% vs. recent Q1 average), $1.3 billion of unfunded definitive commitments, and more than $3.8 billion of cumulative realizations. Major negatives centered on the significant noncash YPF appellate loss and related accounting write-down, several one-off charges (including a $19 million case-related expense recognition and FX impact tied to redemption), and fair-value accounting and discount-rate headwinds that compressed reported capital provision income. Management presented a clear plan to focus the narrative on the core portfolio, harvest cash, manage expenses and delever over time while remaining comfortable with current leverage. Given the breadth and strength of operational highlights and cash-related metrics relative to the primarily noncash and manageable lowlights, the overall tone is constructive.Positive Updates
Large, Diversified Portfolio and Scale
237 active assets (around 900 cases when multicase matters counted), widely diversified across geographies and case types, producing accelerating realizations and substantial runway for future cash generation.
Negative Updates
YPF Adverse Appellate Decision and Large Noncash Write-Down
Unfavorable divided appellate panel ruling on the YPF matter led to a substantial noncash valuation write-down of the YPF asset; while management stresses this is noncash and that the investment generated a cash profit of more than $100 million, the accounting impact materially affected reported results and increased near-term volatility.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large, Diversified Portfolio and Scale
237 active assets (around 900 cases when multicase matters counted), widely diversified across geographies and case types, producing accelerating realizations and substantial runway for future cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized strong liquidity and a cash-first view: visibility to >$280M of cash so far in 2026 and $740M of cash & marketable securities at quarter end (after a $500M debt raise in January). Q1 new definitive commitments were $133M with $108M deployed, $1.3B of unfunded definitive commitments and $600M+ of discretionary capacity; the firm reports 237 active assets (≈900 cases) and models >$5B of realizations with a modeled ROIC of ~110% (historical ROIC ~82%), cumulative realizations of $3.8B (>$6B group-wide), and Q1 realizations of $97M from 25 assets. Portfolio metrics: 35% vintage 2015–2019, concluded weighted‑average life 2.6 years (up from 2.3), active deployed capital life 3.4 years, 36 trials/merit hearings scheduled in 2026, and ~23 assets with potential to generate $10M+ in 2026. Balance‑sheet and leverage: net debt ~$1.7B, debt/equity ~1.35x (incurrence covenant 2.0x), debt WAL 5.5 years vs concluded assets WAL 2.6 years; ratings Ba1 (Moody’s) and BB (S&P). They reiterated intent to delever over time, noted a noncash YPF write‑down despite >$100M cash profit, a $19M case‑cost charge, and a ~50bp discount‑rate headwind to capital provision income.Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
36
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 339.85M | 472.25M | 1.08B | 270.62M | -12.76M |
| Gross Profit | 193.77M | 341.23M | 1.06B | 195.62M | -18.05M |
| EBITDA | 239.98M | 406.18M | 821.19M | 113.38M | 5.98M |
| Net Income | 62.57M | 146.48M | 610.52M | 30.51M | -56.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.64B | 6.18B | 5.84B | 4.29B | 3.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 656.16M | 548.95M | 328.11M | 107.66M | 180.25M |
| Total Debt | 2.15B | 1.78B | 1.55B | 1.27B | 1.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.51B | 2.92B | 2.63B | 1.90B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.45B | 2.42B | 2.29B | 1.74B | 1.55B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.91M | 216.06M | -277.89M | -466.51M | -585.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.62M | 216.72M | -274.68M | -466.10M | -585.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.98M | -661.00K | -3.21M | -407.00K | -285.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 135.19M | 33.83M | 389.53M | 399.13M | 444.83M |
Burford Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
360.80
Price Trends
340.61
Negative
468.40
Negative
611.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.73
Negative
47.34
Neutral
75.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 360.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 332.70, above the 50-day MA of 340.61, and below the 200-day MA of 611.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BUR.
Burford Capital Risk Analysis
Burford Capital disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burford Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burford Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | £1.84B | 13.82 | 4.51% | 2.40% | 68.95% | 109.67% | |
72 Outperform | £22.67B | 4.32 | 17.91% | 2.44% | -25.49% | 3.34% | |
71 Outperform | £508.04M | 9.07 | 9.58% | 5.79% | 5.52% | 18.92% | |
68 Neutral | £4.92B | 10.34 | 18.00% | 4.13% | 6.46% | 6.47% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
55 Neutral | £749.87M | 15.85 | 2.53% | 1.22% | -323.47% | -837.46% | |
54 Neutral | £2.14B | 49.53 | 4.25% | 2.85% | 47.14% | -37.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:BUR
Burford Capital
331.20
-470.46
-58.69%
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Burford Capital Corporate Events
Dividends
Burford Capital Sets Sterling Rate for 2025 Final Dividend
Positive
May 29, 2026
Burford Capital has set the pound sterling conversion rate for its 2025 final dividend of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share, which will be paid on June 12, 2026 to shareholders of record on May 22, 2026. Investors choosing payment in sterling will ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Burford Capital Schedules Retail Investor Webcast to Discuss Financial Results
Positive
May 21, 2026
Burford Capital plans to host an audio webcast for retail shareholders on June 18, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. EDT / 3:00 p.m. BST, where CEO Christopher Bogart and CFO Jordan Licht will discuss the firm’s financial results and other disclosures. Re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Burford Capital Shareholders Back All AGM Resolutions, Approve Dividend and Capital Powers
Positive
May 14, 2026
Burford Capital said shareholders approved all resolutions at its 2026 annual general meeting, endorsing the election of new director Rick Noel and re-election of the existing board, with about 70% of outstanding shares represented. Investors also...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Burford Capital Highlights Strong Liquidity Despite YPF-Related Charge in 1Q26
Neutral
May 8, 2026
Burford Capital reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results, highlighting a multi-billion-dollar portfolio of litigation assets that continues to generate substantial cash returns. Management stressed the robustness of the business, noting more ...
Financial Disclosures
Burford Capital Sets May 8 Date for First-Quarter 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Burford Capital plans to release its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 on May 8, 2026, with a detailed results presentation to be posted on its investor website ahead of the announcement. The firm will host a same-day co...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Burford Capital Files Proxy Materials and Sets May Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Apr 2, 2026
Burford Capital has filed its definitive proxy statement, additional proxy soliciting materials and its 2025 annual report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, making them available both on the regulator’s website and via its ow...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Burford Capital Taps Veteran Credit Investor Rick Noel for Board Role
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Burford Capital has proposed the election of Rick Noel as an independent non-executive director, with shareholders set to vote on his appointment at the annual general meeting on May 13, 2026. Subject to approval, Noel will join the board immediat...
Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Issues New Shares as Executive Awards Vest
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Burford Capital has reported the vesting of restricted share units and performance-based restricted share units awarded to senior executives under its 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan and 2025 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan. The company noted th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Burford Faces YPF Setback After U.S. Appeal Court Overturns Key Judgment
Negative
Mar 30, 2026
Burford Capital has been hit by a setback in the long‑running YPF litigation after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit overturned a lower court judgment that had favored claimants Petersen and Eton Park over Argentina’s fa...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Burford Downplays YPF Court Setback, Stresses Strong Liquidity and Growth Plan
Negative
Mar 30, 2026
Burford Capital moved to reassure investors after a U.S. appeals court ruling in the YPF litigation delayed expected cash proceeds and triggered a likely substantial non-cash write-down of the case’s carrying value. Management emphasized tha...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Burford Capital Awaits Impact of Second Circuit Ruling in YPF Case
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
Burford Capital said the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has issued its decision in the Petersen and Eton Park claims against the Republic of Argentina and YPF, a high-profile matter for the legal financier. The company will issue a f...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Burford Capital Completes $3.9 Million Share Buyback for Deferred Compensation Plan
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Burford Capital has completed a board-authorized share repurchase program tied to future obligations under its deferred compensation plan, buying 475,000 ordinary shares in U.S. open-market transactions for about $3.9 million. The repurchased shar...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Burford Executives Boost Stakes as Firm Launches $5m Share Buyback and New RSU Grants
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Burford Capital’s top executives have ploughed more than $4.3 million of their cash compensation into over 500,000 of the firm’s ordinary shares via its Deferred Compensation Plan, lifting CEO Christopher Bogart and CIO Jonathan Molot&...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.