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Tritax Big Box REIT PLC (GB:BBOX)
LSE:BBOX

Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX) AI Stock Analysis

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Tritax Big Box REIT

(LSE:BBOX)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
166.00p
▲(14.33%Upside)
Tritax Big Box REIT receives a high score driven by strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings guidance. The company's strategic acquisitions and future growth potential in logistics and data centers further enhance its position. While technical indicators and increased leverage pose some risks, the overall outlook remains positive.
Positive Factors
Development Interest
The Company reports strong interest in its recently announced data centre development and planning is ongoing with receipt of consent targeted.
Market Environment
BBOX reports a positive start to the year, with the market environment remaining supportive of ongoing rental growth.
Rental Growth
Tritax Big Box produced like-for-like rental growth of just under 4%, showing resilience despite concerns in the logistics sector.
Negative Factors
Business Confidence
The discount to NTA reflects continued concern over depressed business confidence feeding into lower net absorption and rising vacancy.
Vacancy Concerns
There are nevertheless still some broader market concerns over vacancy having risen to 6.3% across the market compared to 5.6% at the end of last year.

Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Tritax Big Box REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTritax Big Box REIT plc is the only listed vehicle dedicated to investing in very large logistics warehouse assets (Big Boxes) in the UK and is committed to delivering attractive and sustainable returns for shareholders. Investing in and actively managing existing built investments, land suitable for Big Box development and developments predominantly delivered through pre-let forward funded basis, the Company focuses on large, well-located, modern Big Box logistics assets, let to institutional-grade tenants on long-term leases (typically at least 12 years in length) with upward-only rent reviews and geographic and tenant diversification throughout the UK. The Company seeks to exploit the significant opportunity in this sub-sector of the UK logistics market owing to strong tenant demand and limited supply of Big Boxes. The Company is a real estate investment trust to which Part 12 of the UK Corporation Tax Act 2010 applies (REIT), is listed on the premium segment of the Official List of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a constituent of the FTSE 250, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT and MSCI indices.
How the Company Makes MoneyTritax Big Box REIT generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its logistics properties to tenants under long-term rental agreements. The company's key revenue streams include rental income, which is typically subject to upward-only rent reviews, providing stable and growing cash flows. Additionally, Tritax Big Box may realize gains through the appreciation of property values in its portfolio, which can be monetized through property sales or revaluation. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with developers and investors to expand its portfolio, thereby enhancing its income-generating capabilities. The demand for logistics and distribution space, driven by the growth of e-commerce and the need for efficient supply chain solutions, is a significant factor contributing to Tritax Big Box's earnings.

Tritax Big Box REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 28, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 4.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Tritax Big Box experienced a transformative year with strong financial and operational performance, strategic acquisitions, and promising future growth opportunities, particularly in data center development. Despite some market uncertainties and increased vacancy rates, the company's strategic positioning and strong balance sheet provide a positive outlook.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial and Operational Performance
Tritax Big Box reported excellent financial and operational results for 2024, with significant strategic transformation and increased rental income. The adjusted EPS rose by 15% to 8.91p, and dividends increased by 4.9% to 7.66p per share.
Strategic Acquisition and Integration
The acquisition of UKCM's £1.2 billion portfolio was a major milestone, contributing to increased net rental income and successful integration. The disposal program for non-strategic UKCM assets is ahead of schedule.
Data Center Development Opportunities
The launch of the Power First approach to data centers presents significant future growth opportunities, with a targeted yield on cost of 9.3% for the Manor Farm data center development.
Record Rental Reversion
The company achieved a record 28% rental reversion, expected to capture nearly 80% of this within the next three years, providing strong near-term growth visibility.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Tritax Big Box maintained a strong balance sheet with a loan-to-value ratio of 28.8% and available liquidity exceeding £550 million. The company plans to deploy significant capital into logistics development and data centers.
Negative Updates
Increased Vacancy Rates
The company reported a rise in vacancy rates to 3.3%, partly due to the acquisition of the UKCM portfolio and the completion of new development assets.
Market Uncertainty and Challenges
Macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainties have caused some businesses to delay long-term commitments, impacting market dynamics.
Company Guidance
The guidance provided in the call for Tritax Big Box's fiscal year 2024 emphasized several key financial and operational metrics. The company reported an adjusted EPS of 8.91p, with a 15% increase, and a dividend of 7.66p per share, marking a 4.9% rise. Their EPRA NTA grew by 4.7% to 185.6p per share. Net rental income increased to over £275 million, largely due to the £1.2 billion UKCM acquisition. The company successfully executed £30 million in asset sales and reduced its EPRA cost ratio to 12.6%. Their loan-to-value ratio fell to 28.8%, while maintaining a strong balance sheet with £550 million in liquidity. The company looks forward to capital deployment in logistics and data centers, with expected capital allocation of £200 million to £250 million in logistics development and up to £100 million in data center development for 2025. Tritax Big Box is optimistic about capturing a 33% ERV growth potential and delivering a 9.3% yield on cost for their Manor Farm data center project.

Tritax Big Box REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
258.70M228.80M-573.50M996.10M487.30M160.60M
Gross Profit
229.20M222.50M-607.70M964.80M464.70M138.90M
EBIT
205.00M190.70M-561.80M971.10M449.50M141.20M
EBITDA
204.30M179.10M0.000.000.0083.80M
Net Income Common Stockholders
156.40M70.00M-599.40M972.60M449.40M141.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
47.37M36.40M47.40M70.90M57.60M21.20M
Total Assets
3.13B5.10B5.16B5.59B4.41B3.86B
Total Debt
820.45M1.62B1.61B1.35B1.34B1.15B
Net Debt
773.08M1.58B1.57B1.27B1.29B1.13B
Total Liabilities
893.18M1.77B1.81B1.52B1.49B1.30B
Stockholders Equity
2.24B3.33B3.35B4.08B2.92B2.56B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
149.10M185.30M177.40M191.90M7.60M93.30M
Operating Cash Flow
149.10M185.30M177.40M196.10M137.60M93.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-207.60M-67.20M-302.10M-327.30M-150.20M-474.60M
Financing Cash Flow
89.60M-81.30M101.20M144.50M49.00M383.40M

Tritax Big Box REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price145.20
Price Trends
50DMA
138.92
Positive
100DMA
139.16
Positive
200DMA
140.46
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.88
Negative
RSI
59.19
Neutral
STOCH
70.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BBOX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 142.87, above the 50-day MA of 138.92, and above the 200-day MA of 140.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BBOX.

Tritax Big Box REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
£3.62B7.3811.28%5.25%38.97%417.46%
61
Neutral
$2.82B10.890.42%8438.96%5.74%-20.95%
$2.62B10.298.06%4.27%
GBLMP
82
Outperform
£4.15B11.608.66%6.00%95.26%
74
Outperform
£9.32B15.425.18%4.22%-9.88%
73
Outperform
£742.28M41.562.39%4.76%4.41%
47
Neutral
£4.68B11.856.13%6.42%-1.73%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BBOX
Tritax Big Box REIT
145.20
-4.52
-3.02%
BYLOF
Big Yellow Group
13.55
-1.63
-10.74%
GB:LAND
Land Securities Group plc REIT
622.00
15.90
2.62%
GB:LMP
LondonMetric Property
197.90
13.58
7.37%
GB:SHED
Urban Logistics REIT plc
153.00
44.10
40.50%
GB:SGRO
Segro plc (REIT)
685.60
-184.51
-21.21%

Tritax Big Box REIT Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tritax Big Box REIT Confirms Compliance Post-UKCM Acquisition
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT has confirmed compliance with its post-offer intention statements following its all-share acquisition of UK Commercial Property REIT Limited. This confirmation, required by the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers, marks the completion of the acquisition process, potentially strengthening Tritax’s position in the UK commercial property market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tritax Big Box REIT Declares Interim Dividend for Q1 2025
Positive
May 8, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has announced an interim dividend of 1.915 pence per ordinary share for the first quarter of 2025, payable on 13 June 2025. This decision aligns with the company’s policy to distribute dividends representing 25% of the previous year’s annual dividend, aiming for a payout ratio exceeding 90% of adjusted earnings. This announcement underscores Tritax Big Box’s commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders while maintaining its position as a leader in the UK logistics real estate sector.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Successfully Passes All AGM Resolutions
Positive
May 7, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc announced that all resolutions were passed at its Annual General Meeting held on 7 May 2025. The resolutions included the adoption of financial statements, election and re-election of directors, appointment of auditors, and authorizations related to share allotment and market purchases. This successful AGM reflects shareholder confidence and supports the company’s strategic operations and growth in the logistics real estate sector.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tritax Big Box REIT Reports Strong Progress in Logistics and Data Centre Operations
Positive
May 7, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has provided a trading update indicating strong progress in its logistics and data centre operations. The company has successfully sold £634 million of assets, reflecting the quality of its portfolio, and is experiencing strong interest in its data centre opportunity at Manor Farm, West London. With a focus on organic growth, Tritax aims to more than double its rental income in the medium term, supported by a stable market environment and ongoing rental growth. The company is also planning an investor seminar to discuss its growth drivers further.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Advances Strategic Asset Disposal and Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT has successfully sold 50% of its UKCM non-strategic assets at a 2.9% premium to the December 2023 book value, with an additional 20% under offer. This strategic disposal is part of their capital recycling strategy to enhance income growth and invest in higher-yielding logistics and data center opportunities. The company has made significant progress in its disposal program, aiming to exit non-strategic assets within 24 months of acquisition. The proceeds from these sales are being reinvested into logistics and data centers, targeting yields of 7-10%, which is expected to more than double rental income, reinforcing Tritax Big Box’s strong market position.

Shareholder Meetings
Tritax Big Box REIT Announces 2025 AGM Details
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has announced its Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for May 7, 2025, at Ashurst LLP in London. The company has released several documents related to the AGM, including the Notice of Meeting and the 2024 Annual Report, which are available on their website and the National Storage Mechanism. With 2,480,677,459 ordinary shares in issue, all carrying voting rights, the AGM will be a significant event for stakeholders, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.