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Tritax Big Box REIT PLC (GB:BBOX)
LSE:BBOX
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Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX) AI Stock Analysis

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Tritax Big Box REIT

(LSE:BBOX)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
166.00p
▲(14.96%Upside)
Tritax Big Box REIT's overall strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in data centers and logistics, are major strengths. The low P/E ratio and solid dividend yield add to its attractiveness, although increased debt and market uncertainties pose potential risks.
Positive Factors
Development Projects
The Company reports strong interest in its recently announced data centre development and planning is ongoing with receipt of consent targeted.
Financial Performance
Progress on asset management continues, with £2.3m of incremental rental revenue added YTD; this represents an 8.3% absolute increase in rent, with open market rent reviews delivering +37%.
Market Environment
BBOX reports a positive start to the year, with the market environment remaining supportive of ongoing rental growth.
Negative Factors
Business Confidence
The discount to NTA reflects continued concern over depressed business confidence feeding into lower net absorption and rising vacancy.
Market Concerns
There are nevertheless still some broader market concerns over vacancy having risen to 6.3% across the market compared to 5.6% at the end of last year.
Real Estate Sector
The real estate sector as a whole suffered a predictable sell-off, with the EPRA UK Index now down 15% since the end of Q3 last year.

Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Tritax Big Box REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTritax Big Box REIT plc is the only listed vehicle dedicated to investing in very large logistics warehouse assets (Big Boxes) in the UK and is committed to delivering attractive and sustainable returns for shareholders. Investing in and actively managing existing built investments, land suitable for Big Box development and developments predominantly delivered through pre-let forward funded basis, the Company focuses on large, well-located, modern Big Box logistics assets, let to institutional-grade tenants on long-term leases (typically at least 12 years in length) with upward-only rent reviews and geographic and tenant diversification throughout the UK. The Company seeks to exploit the significant opportunity in this sub-sector of the UK logistics market owing to strong tenant demand and limited supply of Big Boxes. The Company is a real estate investment trust to which Part 12 of the UK Corporation Tax Act 2010 applies (REIT), is listed on the premium segment of the Official List of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a constituent of the FTSE 250, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT and MSCI indices.
How the Company Makes MoneyTritax Big Box REIT makes money primarily through the acquisition and leasing of large logistics facilities to a variety of tenants, including major retailers, e-commerce companies, and third-party logistics providers. The company generates revenue through long-term lease agreements, which provide stable and predictable income streams. Additionally, Tritax Big Box REIT benefits from appreciation in property values and can enhance returns through strategic asset management and development projects. Partnerships with key stakeholders, such as property developers and corporate tenants, also play a significant role in enhancing the company's revenue potential.

Tritax Big Box REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 28, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 3.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Tritax Big Box experienced a transformative year with strong financial and operational performance, strategic acquisitions, and promising future growth opportunities, particularly in data center development. Despite some market uncertainties and increased vacancy rates, the company's strategic positioning and strong balance sheet provide a positive outlook.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial and Operational Performance
Tritax Big Box reported excellent financial and operational results for 2024, with significant strategic transformation and increased rental income. The adjusted EPS rose by 15% to 8.91p, and dividends increased by 4.9% to 7.66p per share.
Strategic Acquisition and Integration
The acquisition of UKCM's £1.2 billion portfolio was a major milestone, contributing to increased net rental income and successful integration. The disposal program for non-strategic UKCM assets is ahead of schedule.
Data Center Development Opportunities
The launch of the Power First approach to data centers presents significant future growth opportunities, with a targeted yield on cost of 9.3% for the Manor Farm data center development.
Record Rental Reversion
The company achieved a record 28% rental reversion, expected to capture nearly 80% of this within the next three years, providing strong near-term growth visibility.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Tritax Big Box maintained a strong balance sheet with a loan-to-value ratio of 28.8% and available liquidity exceeding £550 million. The company plans to deploy significant capital into logistics development and data centers.
Negative Updates
Increased Vacancy Rates
The company reported a rise in vacancy rates to 3.3%, partly due to the acquisition of the UKCM portfolio and the completion of new development assets.
Market Uncertainty and Challenges
Macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainties have caused some businesses to delay long-term commitments, impacting market dynamics.
Company Guidance
The guidance provided in the call for Tritax Big Box's fiscal year 2024 emphasized several key financial and operational metrics. The company reported an adjusted EPS of 8.91p, with a 15% increase, and a dividend of 7.66p per share, marking a 4.9% rise. Their EPRA NTA grew by 4.7% to 185.6p per share. Net rental income increased to over £275 million, largely due to the £1.2 billion UKCM acquisition. The company successfully executed £30 million in asset sales and reduced its EPRA cost ratio to 12.6%. Their loan-to-value ratio fell to 28.8%, while maintaining a strong balance sheet with £550 million in liquidity. The company looks forward to capital deployment in logistics and data centers, with expected capital allocation of £200 million to £250 million in logistics development and up to £100 million in data center development for 2025. Tritax Big Box is optimistic about capturing a 33% ERV growth potential and delivering a 9.3% yield on cost for their Manor Farm data center project.

Tritax Big Box REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tritax Big Box REIT demonstrates strong financial growth and profitability with a notable turnaround in revenue and high gross profit margins. While financial stability is supported by a solid equity base, increased leverage and past revenue volatility present potential risks.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The income statement shows impressive revenue growth with a significant turnaround from negative to positive revenue in 2024. Gross profit margins are high, and there is a notable improvement in net income from 2023 to 2024. The EBIT margin is exceptionally strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the volatility in revenue from 2022 to 2023, due to the negative figures, poses potential stability concerns.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet displays a solid equity ratio, indicating strong financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, reflecting manageable leverage. The company has increased its stockholders' equity significantly over the years. However, the increase in total debt from 2023 to 2024 requires attention, as it may impact future financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals consistent free cash flow generation with a positive operating cash flow trend, supporting the company's operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, the fluctuations in capital expenditures and investing cash flow suggest potential volatility in investment activities.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue294.30M228.80M-573.50M996.10M487.30M
Gross Profit276.10M222.50M-607.70M964.80M464.70M
EBITDA266.00M179.10M0.000.000.00
Net Income445.50M70.00M-599.40M972.60M449.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.70B5.10B5.16B5.59B4.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments80.60M36.40M47.40M70.90M57.60M
Total Debt1.95B1.62B1.61B1.35B1.34B
Total Liabilities2.13B1.77B1.81B1.52B1.49B
Stockholders Equity4.57B3.33B3.35B4.08B2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow195.40M185.30M177.40M191.90M7.60M
Operating Cash Flow195.40M185.30M177.40M196.10M137.60M
Investing Cash Flow-82.30M-67.20M-302.10M-327.30M-150.20M
Financing Cash Flow-68.70M-81.30M101.20M144.50M49.00M

Tritax Big Box REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price144.40
Price Trends
50DMA
144.88
Negative
100DMA
141.23
Positive
200DMA
139.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.97
Positive
RSI
42.76
Neutral
STOCH
28.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BBOX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 144.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145.28, below the 50-day MA of 144.88, and above the 200-day MA of 139.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BBOX.

Tritax Big Box REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
£3.58B7.3411.28%5.30%38.97%417.46%
54
Neutral
$1.19B3.610.13%6.37%-2.13%-128.06%
$2.47B9.608.06%5.13%
GBLMP
77
Outperform
£4.49B11.278.66%6.87%122.74%60.58%
73
Outperform
$725.54M40.632.39%5.58%4.41%
68
Neutral
£8.99B14.885.18%6.08%-9.88%
66
Neutral
£4.30B10.856.13%8.50%0.97%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BBOX
Tritax Big Box REIT
144.40
-10.07
-6.52%
BYLOF
Big Yellow Group
12.64
-2.69
-17.55%
GB:LAND
Land Securities Group plc REIT
578.50
-21.58
-3.60%
GB:LMP
LondonMetric Property
192.30
3.04
1.61%
GB:SHED
Urban Logistics REIT plc
156.00
36.90
30.98%
GB:SGRO
Segro plc (REIT)
665.00
-221.84
-25.01%

Tritax Big Box REIT Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Evaluates Strategic Options Amid Increased Offer for Warehouse REIT
Neutral
Jul 10, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc is evaluating its strategic options following an increased cash offer for Warehouse REIT plc by Wapping Bidco Ltd. The board of Tritax Big Box believes that its proposed cash and share acquisition of Warehouse REIT offers a more attractive proposition for Warehouse shareholders, allowing them to benefit from the combined portfolios of both companies. Tritax Big Box has advised Warehouse shareholders to refrain from taking any action regarding the Blackstone Offer until further announcements are made.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Buy with a £1.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tritax Big Box REIT Targets 50% Earnings Growth by 2030
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT has announced its potential to grow adjusted earnings by 50% by 2030, driven by record rental reversion, a significant logistics development pipeline, and high returns from pre-let data centre opportunities. The company is leveraging its efficient cost structure and strong balance sheet to capitalize on these growth drivers, aiming to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns to shareholders. The investor seminar will provide insights into ongoing asset management initiatives and the strategic focus on logistics and data centres, highlighting the company’s unique position in the UK real estate market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Hold with a £165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Announces Strategic Acquisition of Warehouse REIT
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has announced a recommended cash and share acquisition of Warehouse REIT plc, which will be executed through a scheme of arrangement. The acquisition offers Warehouse shareholders a combination of new BBOX shares and cash, with a total value of approximately £485.2 million, representing a significant premium over Warehouse’s recent share prices. This strategic move is expected to enhance Tritax’s position as a leading logistics platform in the UK, providing increased liquidity and lower capital costs. The acquisition is anticipated to be earnings enhancing in the first full financial year post-completion, with expected cost synergies and improved financing terms benefiting the combined group.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Buy with a £1.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Announces New External Directorship for Wu Gang
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc announced that Wu Gang, a Non-Executive Director of the company, will join Coats Group plc as a Non-Executive Director, effective July 1, 2025. This appointment could enhance Tritax’s strategic positioning by potentially fostering new insights and collaborations within the logistics and supply chain sectors, benefiting stakeholders through expanded expertise and industry connections.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Buy with a £1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Secures £400 Million Refinancing to Boost Strategic Investments
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has successfully secured a new £400 million unsecured revolving credit facility, replacing its existing £300 million facility and supporting its strategic investment and development activities. This refinancing, which includes an additional £150 million in bilateral bank facilities, enhances the company’s financial flexibility and aligns with its sustainability and ESG goals, while maintaining a diversified debt maturity profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Buy with a £2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tritax Big Box REIT Confirms Compliance Post-UKCM Acquisition
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT has confirmed compliance with its post-offer intention statements following its all-share acquisition of UK Commercial Property REIT Limited. This confirmation, required by the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers, marks the completion of the acquisition process, potentially strengthening Tritax’s position in the UK commercial property market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BBOX) stock is a Buy with a £185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tritax Big Box REIT stock, see the GB:BBOX Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tritax Big Box REIT Declares Interim Dividend for Q1 2025
Positive
May 8, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has announced an interim dividend of 1.915 pence per ordinary share for the first quarter of 2025, payable on 13 June 2025. This decision aligns with the company’s policy to distribute dividends representing 25% of the previous year’s annual dividend, aiming for a payout ratio exceeding 90% of adjusted earnings. This announcement underscores Tritax Big Box’s commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders while maintaining its position as a leader in the UK logistics real estate sector.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tritax Big Box REIT Successfully Passes All AGM Resolutions
Positive
May 7, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc announced that all resolutions were passed at its Annual General Meeting held on 7 May 2025. The resolutions included the adoption of financial statements, election and re-election of directors, appointment of auditors, and authorizations related to share allotment and market purchases. This successful AGM reflects shareholder confidence and supports the company’s strategic operations and growth in the logistics real estate sector.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tritax Big Box REIT Reports Strong Progress in Logistics and Data Centre Operations
Positive
May 7, 2025

Tritax Big Box REIT plc has provided a trading update indicating strong progress in its logistics and data centre operations. The company has successfully sold £634 million of assets, reflecting the quality of its portfolio, and is experiencing strong interest in its data centre opportunity at Manor Farm, West London. With a focus on organic growth, Tritax aims to more than double its rental income in the medium term, supported by a stable market environment and ongoing rental growth. The company is also planning an investor seminar to discuss its growth drivers further.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025