Global Blue Group Holding (GB) AI Stock Analysis

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Global Blue Group Holding

(NYSE:GB)

75Outperform

Global Blue Group Holding presents a robust financial performance with significant revenue and profitability improvements, despite high leverage. The technical indicators suggest a positive momentum, although caution is warranted due to potential overbought conditions. Valuation is fair, but the absence of a dividend yield may deter income investors. The earnings call reflects optimism with growth and guidance, although certain risks like client loss and increased costs are present.

Global Blue Group Holding (GB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.48B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)393.45K

Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6

Beta (1Y)0.27

Revenue Growth20.47%

EPS Growth185.00%

CountryUS

Employees1,939

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength51

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.34

Shares Outstanding199,871,320

10 Day Avg. Volume498,515

30 Day Avg. Volume393,453

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.12

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)3.19

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6.00

Price Target Upside-18.70% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Global Blue Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal Blue Group Holding (GB) is a leading provider of Tax-Free Shopping and payment solutions, primarily servicing the international traveler market. The company operates across various sectors, including retail, tourism, and financial services, offering innovative products and services that enhance the shopping experience for international tourists. Its core offerings include VAT refund services, dynamic currency conversion, and various payment technology solutions, helping travelers save money and retailers increase sales.

How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Blue Group Holding makes money predominantly through its VAT refund services, where it earns a commission from either the retailer or the traveler for processing tax refunds on purchases made by international tourists. The company also generates revenue through dynamic currency conversion services, which allow travelers to pay in their home currency at the point of sale, with Global Blue earning a margin on the exchange rate applied. Additionally, the company leverages its payment solutions and technology services to receive fees from retail partners and financial institutions. Key partnerships with retailers, airports, and financial service providers are critical to maximizing its market reach and efficiency in processing transactions.

Global Blue Group Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Global Blue Group Holding shows impressive revenue growth and profitability improvements, with strong gross and net profit margins. However, the balance sheet indicates high leverage, which poses potential risks. The cash flow position is robust, with significant growth in free cash flow and strong cash conversion ratios. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with improved financial performance, but the high debt levels need careful management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

The company demonstrated strong revenue growth, with TTM revenue increasing by 15.2% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is robust at 73.3%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly to 13.1% TTM from 3.3% in the previous period, reflecting enhanced profitability. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 23.7% and 47.2%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 4.17, indicating significant leverage, although it has improved from prior periods. The equity ratio is relatively low at 11.0%, suggesting limited equity financing. However, the return on equity has improved dramatically to 49.8%, reflecting better utilization of equity despite the high leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company has experienced a strong free cash flow growth of 29.4% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is solid at 2.40, reflecting good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at 1.64, showing that the company is generating ample free cash flow relative to its net income.

TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
486.34M	422.30M	311.49M	125.95M	44.70M	420.40M
	Gross Profit
356.59M	310.51M	219.04M	90.02M	30.13M	323.12M
	EBIT
115.14M	97.88M	14.14M	-102.81M	-430.54M	41.20M
	EBITDA
229.69M	145.16M	60.06M	-16.60M	-55.77M	149.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
63.51M	13.97M	-23.50M	-94.69M	-423.53M	1.67M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.67M	87.46M	240.55M	51.69M	182.78M	226.14M
	Total Assets
291.89M	1.09B	1.16B	853.43M	961.15M	1.12B
	Total Debt
154.34M	612.44M	788.84M	733.77M	733.43M	644.57M
	Net Debt
141.67M	524.98M	548.29M	682.08M	550.65M	418.43M
	Total Liabilities
269.49M	1.02B	1.15B	1.04B	1.03B	1.05B
	Stockholders Equity
22.40M	61.92M	373.00K	-191.53M	-76.39M	63.12M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
104.39M	80.64M	-34.96M	-108.10M	-124.37M	151.53M
	Operating Cash Flow
152.48M	120.07M	-1.08M	-87.00M	-103.15M	189.26M
	Investing Cash Flow
-45.49M	-39.63M	-70.65M	-31.04M	-72.60M	-42.72M
	Financing Cash Flow
-87.00M	-233.80M	258.19M	-14.37M	134.11M	-22.21M

Global Blue Group Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price7.38

Price Trends

50DMA

7.16

Positive

100DMA

6.89

Positive

200DMA

6.03

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.06

Positive

RSI

57.25

Neutral

STOCH

19.96

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.35, above the 50-day MA of 7.16, and above the 200-day MA of 6.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB.

Global Blue Group Holding Risk Analysis

Global Blue Group Holding disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Blue Group Holding reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global Blue Group Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAGS	76 Outperform	$2.77B	6.76	15.39%	―	8.26%	20.41%
GB	75 Outperform	$1.48B	21.58	67.32%	―	20.47%	185.00%
PAYO	72 Outperform	$2.28B	19.68	17.45%	―	17.64%	30.75%
TUYA	65 Neutral	$1.33B	237.65	0.51%	3.01%	29.84%	―
STNE	63 Neutral	$3.16B	8.73	-9.48%	―	-8.52%	-180.71%
AVDX	60 Neutral	$1.57B	197.18	1.23%	―	15.29%	―
Sector *	57 Neutral	$19.95B	9.66	-12.05%	2.76%	5.40%	-24.89%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Global Blue Group Holding

7.38

2.51

51.54%

PAGS

Pagseguro Digital

8.39

-3.85

-31.45%

STNE

Stoneco

11.53

-4.14

-26.42%

PAYO

Payoneer

6.33

1.53

31.88%

TUYA

Tuya

2.02

0.47

30.32%

AVDX

AvidXchange Holdings

7.69

-3.45

-30.97%

Global Blue Group Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.82% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong revenue and EBITDA growth across all divisions, significant improvements in financial health indicators, and confidence in achieving the higher end of the annual financial guidance. However, these positives were somewhat offset by the loss of a significant client in Japan, increased finance costs, and lower contribution growth in the Payments segment.

Highlights

Acquisition by Shift4

Global Blue was acquired by Shift4 for $7.50 per common share, a 15% premium over the closing share price, valuing the company at an enterprise value of $2.5 billion.

Strong Revenue Growth

The Group delivered revenue of 131 million Euros in Q3, a 20% year-on-year increase, with significant progress across all divisions.

Impressive EBITDA Increase

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 31% year-on-year to 52 million Euros, resulting in an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.4 points to 39.7%.

Tax Free Shopping Solutions Growth

Tax Free Shopping Solutions accounted for 74% of Group revenue, with a revenue growth of 22% to 98 million Euros and completed Sales-in-Stores growth of 21%.

Improvement in Net Income

Group adjusted net income increased by 58% to 14 million Euros compared to 9 million Euros last year.

Reduction in Net Leverage Ratio

Net leverage ratio improved to 2.6 times from 3.6 times last year, showing a significant improvement in financial health.

Lowlights

Loss of Significant Client in Japan

FX Solutions lost a significant client in Japan earlier in the year, negatively impacting revenue growth comparison versus last year.

Increased Net Finance Costs

Net finance costs increased by 7 million Euros due to higher interest rates on senior debt.

Lower Contribution Growth in Payments

Despite revenue growth, contribution growth in the Payments segment was lower due to the mix effect, with acquiring business growing faster than FX Solutions but with lower margins.

Company Guidance

During the call, Global Blue provided guidance for the fiscal year 2024-2025, reiterating their expectation to achieve an adjusted EBITDA in the range of €185 million to €205 million. The company anticipates reaching the upper half of this range, based on the improvement observed in the last 12 months' adjusted EBITDA over the recent three quarters. Jacques Stern, CEO, emphasized the company's strong performance over the nine-month period, highlighting significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, margins, and drop-through rates. The guidance comes amid the recent announcement of Global Blue’s acquisition by Shift4, expected to close in Q3 2025, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.