Carrefour (CA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €10.65B
• Dividend Yield: 6.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 4.39%
• EPS Growth: -59.47%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 324,750
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.27
• Shares Outstanding: 736,314,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,404,499
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,785,540
• PEG Ratio: -0.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €16.03
• Price Target Upside: 4.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: €16.00 ▲(4.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker 2025 profitability and higher leverage despite solid operating and free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is mixed due to a high dividend yield offset by a relatively high P/E.

Positive Factors

Scale & Market Position

Carrefour’s broad store footprint and multi-format presence create durable competitive advantages in grocery retail: scale supports purchasing power, supplier access and category breadth, helping sustain margins and market share across regions even amid cyclical pressures.

Strong Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating cash flow and solid free cash flow provide financial flexibility to fund investments, service debt, and support dividends. This cash generation cushions leverage volatility and underpins medium-term strategic initiatives like digital and store upgrades.

Resilient Operating Profitability

Stable gross margins and steady operating performance indicate structural cost controls and assortment effectiveness. Even with net profit pressure, underlying operating resilience supports recovery potential and long-term earnings power as price/mix and cost initiatives take hold.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

A marked increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Higher debt levels constrain capacity for opportunistic investments or sustained shareholder returns and increase downside risk if cash flow weakens further.

Compressed Net Margins

Very thin net margins limit the firm’s buffer against cost shocks and intensify reliance on volume and efficiency gains to deliver returns. Persistent margin compression would impair return on equity and the ability to reduce leverage or maintain dividend policies sustainably.

Revenue Downtrend

A reversal to revenue decline undermines operating leverage and puts pressure on margins and cash flow growth. If the top-line trend persists, it will make deleveraging harder, reduce reinvestment capacity, and lengthen the timeline for restoring prior profitability levels.

Carrefour Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrefour SA operates stores in various formats and channels in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, and Taiwan. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, cash and carry stores, and hypercash stores; e-commerce sites; and service stations. Its stores offer fresh produce; local products; consumer goods; and non-food products, including electronic and household appliances, textiles, and childcare products. The company is also involved in banking, insurance, property development, and franchise activities; the provision of travel agency services; and the rental of shopping malls. As of December 31. 2021, it operated 253 hypermarkets, 1,043 supermarkets, 4,330 convenience stores, 147 cash and carry outlets, and 26 soft discount stores in France; 457 hypermarkets, 1,926 supermarkets, 3,430 convenience stores, 12 cash and carry outlets, and 81 soft discount stores in rest of Europe; 184 hypermarkets, 151 supermarkets, 558 convenience stores, 259 cash and carry outlets, and one soft discount store in Argentina and Brazil; and 70 hypermarkets, four supermarkets, and 274 convenience stores in Taiwan, as well as 688 stores through local franchisee partners in Middle East, Africa, etc. Carrefour SA was founded in 1959 and is based in Massy, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrefour generates revenue primarily through the sale of consumer goods across its various store formats, including hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores. The company's revenue model is structured around high-volume sales of groceries and non-food items, complemented by private label products that often yield higher margins. Additional revenue streams include e-commerce sales, loyalty programs, and promotional partnerships with brands. Carrefour's strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers also play a significant role in securing favorable pricing and promotional opportunities, enhancing profitability. Furthermore, the company has been investing in digital transformation, expanding its online shopping platform, which has become increasingly important for revenue generation, especially in the wake of changing consumer behaviors.

Carrefour Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured: 2025 revenue declined (~5% vs. 2024) and net margin compressed to ~0.4% (vs. ~0.8% in 2024), while leverage rose meaningfully (debt-to-equity ~2.31 vs. ~1.47). Offsetting this, operating cash flow stayed positive (~€3.6B) and free cash flow remained solid (~€2.0B) despite declining versus 2023.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable over time but turned down in 2025 (down ~5% vs. 2024), following modest growth in 2023–2024. Profitability is thin for the sector profile: operating profitability is steady but low, and net profit fell sharply in 2025 (net margin ~0.4% vs. ~0.8% in 2024 and ~2.0% in 2023), suggesting higher costs and/or weaker pricing mix. Strengths include resilient gross profitability over multiple years and relatively consistent operating performance; weaknesses are the very small net profit buffer and the recent earnings compression.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased meaningfully in 2025, with debt rising and debt-to-equity moving up to ~2.31 from ~1.47 in 2024, reducing financial flexibility. Equity is relatively stable, but returns to shareholders weakened materially as profits dropped (return on equity ~2.9% in 2025 vs. ~6.7% in 2024 and ~14.4% in 2023). The balance sheet benefits from a sizeable asset base and historically moderate leverage, but the latest step-up in debt and lower profitability raise balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative bright spot: operating cash flow stayed positive in 2025 (~€3.6B) and free cash flow remained solid (~€2.0B), though free cash flow declined (down ~14% in 2025 after being roughly flat in 2024). Cash conversion is steady versus the company’s own history, and free cash flow continues to cover reported earnings at a similar pace across years. The key weakness is the downward trend in free cash flow since 2023, which—if it persists—could limit capacity for debt reduction or shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	84.03B	87.27B	84.91B	83.09B	71.76B
Gross Profit	13.96B	16.97B	15.85B	14.34B	13.03B
EBITDA	4.22B	4.18B	4.23B	4.69B	3.95B
Net Income	319.00M	723.00M	1.66B	1.35B	1.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	55.21B	57.36B	56.17B	56.55B	47.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.42B	6.89B	6.68B	5.43B	3.82B
Total Debt	25.34B	15.89B	20.09B	19.23B	15.87B
Total Liabilities	43.55B	44.88B	42.78B	43.37B	35.84B
Stockholders Equity	10.98B	10.82B	11.54B	11.14B	10.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.03B	2.43B	2.80B	2.34B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	3.55B	4.20B	4.65B	4.22B	3.66B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.16B	-2.37B	-739.00M	-2.13B	-1.33B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.59B	-1.08B	-2.72B	-326.00M	-3.06B

Carrefour Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:CA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.74, above the 50-day MA of 14.36, and above the 200-day MA of 13.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:CA.

Carrefour Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FNAC	70 Outperform	€1.05B	46.68	1.54%	3.47%	17.97%	-81.24%
CA	56 Neutral	€10.65B	31.35	3.14%	6.51%	4.39%	-59.47%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
CO	40 Underperform	€93.31M	-0.17	-46.40%	―	―	―