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Five Below (FIVE)
NASDAQ:FIVE

Five Below (FIVE) AI Stock Analysis

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Five Below

(NASDAQ:FIVE)

67Neutral
Five Below's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and a robust financial position, tempered by challenges in operating margins and sales comparability. The stock's technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, while valuation remains fair. Earnings call insights highlight strategic growth amid margin pressures.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Five Below reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, as comps landed toward the high end of its prior guide.
Expansion
Five plans to open 150 new stores (+8.5% growth) in F25.
Negative Factors
Margin Pressure
The tariff landscape presents a significant margin headwind which will build through '25e and into '26e, complicating FIVE's value strategy.
Tariffs
Tariff pressure will result in a decline in earnings in F25 and flat earnings in F26.

Five Below (FIVE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Five Below Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFive Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. The company offers range of accessories, which includes novelty socks, sunglasses, jewelry, scarves, gloves, hair accessories, athletic tops and bottoms, and t-shirts, as well as nail polish, lip gloss, fragrance, and branded cosmetics; and personalized living space products, such as lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, plush items, pillows, candles, incense, lighting, novelty décor, accent furniture, and related items, as well as provides storage options. It provides assortment of sports balls, team sports merchandise, and fitness accessories comprising hand weights, jump ropes, and gym balls; various games, such as board games, puzzles, collectibles, and toys, including remote control; and summer season sports, which includes pool, beach, and outdoor toys, as well as games and accessories. In addition, the company offers accessories for cell phones, tablets, audio, and computers, as well as cases, chargers, headphones, and other related items; and media products including books, video games, and DVDs. It also provides assortment of craft activity kits, and arts and crafts supplies, such as crayons, markers, and stickers; and school products comprising backpacks, fashion notebooks and journals, novelty pens and pencils, and locker accessories. Further, the company offers party products, which includes party goods, decorations, gag gifts, and greeting cards, as well as every day and special occasion merchandise; assortment of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-size box candy, seasonal-related candy, and gum and snack food products, as well as sells chilled drinks through coolers; and provides seasonally specific items used to celebrate and decorate for events. The company was formerly known as Cheap Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Five Below, Inc. in August 2002. Five Below, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyFive Below generates revenue primarily through the direct sale of merchandise in its physical retail stores across the United States. The company's revenue model is centered around its unique value proposition of offering high-quality, trend-forward products at affordable, fixed price points. This pricing strategy encourages impulse buying and attracts a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include sales from various product categories, such as leisure, fashion, home, and seasonal items. Five Below's growth strategy involves expanding its store footprint across the country, increasing brand awareness, and enhancing product offerings. Additionally, the company leverages its supply chain efficiencies and strong relationships with vendors to maintain low costs and competitive pricing, which are crucial factors contributing to its profitability.

Five Below Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Five Below shows strong revenue growth and an increase in equity, reflecting financial health. However, operating efficiency volatility and cash flow management issues suggest potential risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Five Below has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, with a notable increase in total revenue from $1.96 billion in 2021 to $3.56 billion in 2024. The company also maintains healthy gross profit and net profit margins, suggesting operational efficiency and profitability. However, fluctuations in EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate potential volatility in operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust, with a significant increase in stockholders' equity from $0.76 billion in 2020 to $577.85 billion in 2025, indicating strong investor confidence. The absence of total debt in 2025 reflects a conservative financial strategy, reducing leverage-related risks. Equity ratio improvement enhances financial stability, though historical debt-to-equity ratios suggest past leverage.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flows have been positive, supporting the company's ability to fund operations internally. However, inconsistent free cash flow growth and variations in free cash flow to net income ratios highlight challenges in capital expenditure management and cash generation efficiency. The recent lack of reported operating and free cash flow data requires attention.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.88B3.56B3.08B2.85B1.96B
Gross Profit
1.35B1.27B1.10B1.03B652.33M
EBIT
323.82M385.57M345.04M379.88M154.80M
EBITDA
517.38M516.32M450.66M464.71M224.15M
Net Income Common Stockholders
253.61M301.11M261.53M278.81M123.36M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
528.79M460.09M399.17M342.11M409.71M
Total Assets
4.34B3.87B3.32B2.88B2.31B
Total Debt
1.98B1.74B1.50B1.30B1.11B
Net Debt
1.65B1.56B1.16B1.23B841.55M
Total Liabilities
2.53B2.29B1.96B1.76B1.43B
Stockholders Equity
577.85B1.58B1.36B1.12B881.89M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
106.65M164.57M62.97M39.74M165.78M
Operating Cash Flow
430.65M499.62M314.93M327.91M365.97M
Investing Cash Flow
-232.94M-556.34M-3.94M-465.60M-286.89M
Financing Cash Flow
-45.74M-95.86M-43.63M-66.13M-12.78M

Five Below Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price55.75
Price Trends
50DMA
82.31
Negative
100DMA
90.47
Negative
200DMA
89.24
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.77
Negative
RSI
43.81
Neutral
STOCH
32.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIVE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.34, below the 50-day MA of 82.31, and below the 200-day MA of 89.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FIVE.

Five Below Risk Analysis

Five Below disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Five Below reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Five Below Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
BBBBW
75
Outperform
$486.52M9.5338.54%2.27%2.76%6.81%
SBSBH
70
Neutral
$875.79M5.0929.39%0.57%6.28%
ASASO
69
Neutral
$2.52B6.5621.14%1.22%-3.67%-14.66%
67
Neutral
$3.13B13.2514.95%8.91%-15.31%
63
Neutral
$4.76B18.40-39.97%2.18%5.77%
59
Neutral
$10.97B9.83-1.56%4.06%1.31%-16.49%
AAAAP
45
Neutral
$2.09B59.62-23.45%2.86%-9.34%-852.37%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FIVE
Five Below
55.75
-103.83
-65.06%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
30.31
-46.64
-60.61%
BBW
BuildABear Workshop
34.31
6.40
22.93%
SBH
Sally Beauty
7.95
-3.14
-28.31%
ETSY
Etsy
40.80
-27.87
-40.59%
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors
34.10
-26.50
-43.73%

Five Below Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -26.25% | Next Earnings Date: May 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed performance for Five Below. While there was significant growth in store openings and total sales, comparable sales and earnings per share saw declines. The company is also facing challenges due to tariffs impacting margins. However, improvements in inventory management and a strong cash position provide positive aspects. The overall sentiment leans towards being balanced, with notable achievements offset by significant challenges.
Highlights
Record Store Openings
Five Below opened a record 228 new stores in 2024, ending the year with 1,771 stores across the US, marking an increase of 227 net new stores or 14.7% over last year.
Sales Growth
Total sales for fiscal 2024 increased by 10.4% to approximately $3.88 billion from $3.51 billion last year.
Improved Inventory Management
Average inventory per store decreased by approximately 2%, and shrink rates improved in almost every cohort of stores.
Strong Cash Position
Five Below ended the year with approximately $529 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investment securities and no debt.
Lowlights
Comparable Sales Decline
Comparable sales for the year decreased by 2.7%, driven entirely by a decrease in comp transactions.
Negative Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs are expected to impact margins significantly, with a net margin headwind anticipated for 2025, affecting operating margins by about 100 basis points.
Earnings Per Share Decline
Adjusted diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2024 were $5.04, a decline from last year's $5.26.
SG&A Expense Increase
Adjusted SG&A for fiscal 2024 increased by 140 basis points to 26.4% of sales, driven by fixed cost deleverage and investment in store hours and wages.
Company Guidance
During the Five Below Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the management team provided guidance for fiscal 2025, highlighting several key financial metrics and strategic initiatives. For the full year 2025, the company anticipates total sales to range between $4.21 billion and $4.33 billion, reflecting a 10.1% increase at the midpoint. Comparable sales are projected to be flat to a 3% increase. Adjusted operating margin is expected to be approximately 7.3%, down 180 basis points year-over-year, with tariffs contributing a significant portion of this deleverage. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to fall between $4.10 and $4.72. Capital expenditures are estimated to be between $210 million and $230 million, with plans to open approximately 150 new stores. The company is actively mitigating the impact of tariffs through vendor collaboration and selective price adjustments. Additionally, Five Below intends to enhance its assortment by focusing on trend-right and value-driven products, while leveraging its global sourcing capabilities.

Five Below Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Five Below Reports Holiday Sales Growth Amid Challenges
Positive
Jan 13, 2025

Five Below announced an 8.7% increase in net sales during the holiday season, totaling $1.19 billion. Despite a 3.2% decrease in comparable sales, the company expects to meet its guidance for the fourth quarter, reflecting strong customer engagement and strategic investments in product and store experience.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.