Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.42B
• Dividend Yield: 1.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.25
• Revenue Growth: -0.65%
• EPS Growth: -10.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.97
• Shares Outstanding: 64,383,460
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,952,891
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,452,104
• PEG Ratio: -2.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.20
• 1Y Price Target: $57.50
• Price Target Upside: 13.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.31B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $53.00 ▲(4.43% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

ASO scores as a balanced/neutral setup: fundamentals are supported by revenue growth and a healthier balance sheet, but pressured by softer profitability and weaker cash conversion. Technicals are the biggest near-term drag due to a pronounced downtrend. Valuation is a notable positive with a low P/E, while earnings call guidance and initiatives support the outlook despite meaningful consumer, inventory, and tariff risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue and market-share momentum

Returning full-year top-line growth and reported market-share gains reflect durable demand and scale benefits. A growing revenue base plus new-store cohorts and footprint expansion create comp tailwinds and higher operating leverage potential over the next several quarters.

Omni-channel & digital investments

Accelerating e-commerce and AI-led merchandising/search improvements drive sustainable conversion and lower reliance on traffic recovery alone. Scalable digital investments and planned semantic search increase lifetime value and omni-channel resiliency across economic cycles.

Improving cash generation and capital flexibility

Strong absolute cash flow and a larger cash balance support growth investments, a measured buyback/dividend program, and planned store expansion. Improved liquidity and manageable leverage increase strategic optionality and buffer the business through retail cyclicality.

Negative Factors

Weaker cash-to-earnings conversion

A step-down in cash conversion reduces confidence in earnings quality and limits internal funding for growth or volatility. If operating cash flow lags earnings, the company is more exposed to working-capital swings and may need to moderate buybacks or raise liquidity during downturns.

Elevated inventory build

A sizable inventory build ties up working capital and raises markdown risk if demand softens. In specialty retail, excess inventory can compress margins and free cash flow for multiple quarters as the company clears assortments or discounts to restore turns.

Traffic decline and customer mix shift

Sustained traffic weakness, especially among lower-income cohorts, signals vulnerability in Academy’s value-oriented base. A durable shift to higher-income customers raising AUR may not fully offset lost volume, making comps and margin sustainability sensitive to consumer stress.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational products retailer in the United States. The company sells coolers and drinkware, camping accessories, camping equipment, sunglasses, backpacks, and sports bags; marine equipment and fishing rods, reels, baits, and equipment; firearms, ammunition, archery and archery equipment, camouflage apparel, waders, shooting accessories, optics, airguns, and hunting equipment; team sports equipment, including baseball, football, basketball, soccer, golf, racket sports, and volleyball; fitness equipment and accessories, and nutrition supplies; and patio furniture, outdoor cooking, wheeled goods, trampolines, playsets, watersports, and pet equipment, as well as electronics products, watches, consumables, batteries, etc. It also offers outdoor apparel, seasonal apparel, denim, work apparel, graphic t-shirts, and accessories; boys and girls outdoor and athletic apparel; sporting apparel and apparel for fitness; professional and collegiate team licensed apparel and accessories; casual shoes and slippers, work and western boots, youth footwear, socks, and hunting and seasonal footwear; and boys and girls athletic footwear, running shoes, athletic lifestyle and training shoes, team and specialty sports footwear, and slides. The company sells its products under the Academy Sports + Outdoors, Magellan Outdoors, BCG, O'rageous, Outdoor Gourmet, and Freely brand names. As of June 14, 2022, it operated 260 retail locations in 16 contiguous states. The company also sells merchandise to customers through the academy.com website. Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Katy, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Academy Sports and Outdoors primarily makes money by purchasing sporting goods and outdoor-related merchandise from brands and suppliers and reselling it to consumers at retail prices through its stores and online channels; revenue is recognized largely from product sales. Key revenue streams include: (1) in-store retail sales across major merchandise categories (apparel/footwear, sports & recreation equipment, outdoor/camping, and hunting/fishing), where profitability is driven by unit volume, merchandising mix, and gross margin; (2) e-commerce sales fulfilled via direct-to-consumer shipping and, where available, store-based fulfillment/pickup options, which expand geographic reach beyond the physical store base; and (3) sales of Academy-owned/private-label brands, which typically support higher gross margins than third-party brands and help differentiate assortment. Earnings are influenced by product mix (e.g., discretionary apparel vs. equipment, seasonal outdoor categories), promotional cadence, inventory management, and store productivity. Material external factors that can impact results include consumer demand for discretionary goods, seasonality (back-to-school, holiday, and outdoor seasons), commodity and freight costs affecting merchandise cost, and regulatory constraints for restricted categories (e.g., firearms/ammunition). Specific details on any revenue-sharing partnerships (e.g., credit card programs, services, or warranties) are null.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue momentum and an improving balance sheet are positives, but profitability has softened (lower net income/operating profit and compressed margins) and cash conversion has weakened versus prior years, making near-term earnings quality a key watch item.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly versus the prior year, but profitability has softened: net income and operating profit are down from the last several annual periods, and margins have compressed from 2022–2023 highs. Gross margin has stayed relatively steady, suggesting the bigger pressure is coming from operating costs and/or pricing/traffic mix rather than product economics. Overall: solid top-line momentum, but declining earnings power is a key watch item.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for retail with debt under 1.0x equity in the most recent periods, and equity has improved versus earlier years when leverage was notably higher. Returns on equity remain healthy, though they have come down from peak levels as profitability normalized. Overall: improving capital structure and still-strong returns, with moderate leverage risk that remains relevant in a cyclical consumer category.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, but quality has weakened in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow and free cash flow are lower than prior annual results and cover a smaller portion of earnings than in earlier years. Free cash flow growth is strong in the latest period, but it is coming off a weaker base and cash conversion still trails historical levels. Overall: cash flow remains a support, but the recent cash-to-earnings conversion step-down reduces confidence versus prior years.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.05B	5.93B	6.16B	6.40B	6.77B
Gross Profit	2.11B	2.01B	2.11B	2.21B	2.35B
EBITDA	635.05M	693.17M	820.14M	971.51M	1.00B
Net Income	376.77M	418.45M	519.19M	628.00M	671.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.28B	4.90B	4.68B	4.60B	4.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	330.32M	288.93M	347.92M	337.14M	486.00M
Total Debt	1.89B	1.79B	1.70B	1.77B	1.93B
Total Liabilities	3.11B	2.90B	2.72B	2.97B	3.12B
Stockholders Equity	2.17B	2.00B	1.95B	1.63B	1.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	222.13M	328.49M	327.49M	443.20M	597.25M
Operating Cash Flow	434.80M	528.08M	535.78M	552.00M	673.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-172.04M	-186.12M	-206.14M	-108.81M	-76.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-221.37M	-400.95M	-318.87M	-592.05M	-488.85M

Academy Sports and Outdoors Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.09, below the 50-day MA of 57.57, and below the 200-day MA of 51.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASO.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	67 Neutral	$21.80B	23.88	51.45%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
DKS	64 Neutral	$17.37B	35.01	19.45%	2.33%	10.86%	-11.63%
ASO	62 Neutral	$3.42B	9.73	18.07%	1.04%	-0.65%	-10.35%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BBY	51 Neutral	$13.42B	12.85	38.54%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%
SPWH	44 Neutral	$52.33M	2,968.40	-17.05%	―	-1.05%	-10.28%

Academy Sports and Outdoors Corporate Events

Academy Sports Reports Q4 Growth, Expands Store Footprint

Academy Sports and Outdoors reported that for the fourth quarter ended Jan. 31, 2026, net sales rose 2.5% to $1.72 billion while comparable sales fell 1.6%, and diluted EPS increased 4.8% to $1.98, as the retailer opened five new stores in the quarter and 24 for fiscal 2025. For the full year, sales grew 2.0% to $6.05 billion despite a 1.5% comp decline and lower earnings, while the company expanded its footprint to 322 stores, raised its quarterly dividend by 15%, moderated share repurchases and issued 2026 guidance calling for 2%–5% sales growth amid ongoing consumer and macroeconomic pressures.

Academy ended fiscal 2025 with higher cash and inventory levels, largely stable long-term debt and a larger store base totaling 21.9 million gross square feet, positioning it for continued brick-and-mortar expansion. Management highlighted an inflection point back to topline growth, emphasizing accelerated digital transformation, omni-channel initiatives and external tailwinds such as higher tax refunds and major sporting events in 2026, while warning that persistent financial strain on U.S. consumers could weigh on comparable sales momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASO) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Academy Sports and Outdoors stock, see the ASO Stock Forecast page.