Fair Isaac (FICO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $26.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 346.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 63.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: 15.91%
• EPS Growth: 29.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,718
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 7.33
• Shares Outstanding: 23,722,134
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 396,428
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 346,891
• PEG Ratio: 1.89
• Price to Book (P/B): -20.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 18.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 47.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.44
• 1Y Price Target: $2,068.70
• Price Target Upside: 82.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 41.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.49B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $1,253.00 ▲(10.77% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and cash generation, supported by a positive earnings call showing continued growth, platform momentum, and margin expansion. These strengths are materially offset by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high/rising debt), weak technicals (price well below key moving averages with negative MACD), and a demanding valuation (P/E ~63) that increases sensitivity to any slowdown or regulatory timing setbacks.

Positive Factors

High Profitability and Margins

Sustained high gross and operating margins indicate a scalable, software-driven business with strong pricing power and operating leverage. These margins support durable cash generation, allow reinvestment in product development, and provide resilience through modest top-line slowdowns over 2–6 months.

Robust Free Cash Flow Generation

Consistently strong operating and free cash flow funds debt service, R&D, and capital returns without relying on equity raises. This cash conversion supports long-term strategic flexibility, deleveraging initiatives, and potential share repurchases even if near-term revenue growth moderates.

Platform ARR Growth and High Retention

Rapid platform ARR growth and >100% dollar-based retention reflect expanding sticky, subscription-like revenue. Platform momentum and record ACV bookings strengthen recurring revenue mix, improve visibility, and enable higher lifetime value per customer over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak Balance Sheet / High Leverage

Negative equity and a rising debt load materially reduce financial flexibility and elevate refinancing and covenant risk. In stressed scenarios this capital structure can constrain investment, force prioritization of debt service over growth, and increase sensitivity to interest-rate changes over the medium term.

Geographic Revenue Concentration

Heavy reliance on the Americas concentrates macro, regulatory, and credit-cycle exposure. Regional concentration limits diversification benefits, so adverse U.S./Latin American lending trends or policy shifts could disproportionately affect score volumes and software uptake across multiple quarters.

Regulatory and Adoption Timing Risk for Score 10T

Uncertain agency approvals and adoption timing can delay direct-licensing scale and lender migration, slowing anticipated score-driven revenue and long-term contract transitions. Prolonged regulatory lag risks lost market share to incumbents or alternatives and complicates multi-quarter revenue planning.

Fair Isaac Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data management products and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Software segment offers pre-configured decision management solution designed for various business problems or processes, such as marketing, account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, collection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also provides FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to analytics to be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Fair Isaac Corporation markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

FICO primarily makes money through two major revenue streams: (1) Scores and (2) Software. 1) Scores (credit scoring royalties/fees): FICO licenses its credit scoring algorithms (including versions of the FICO Score) and earns revenue when scores are purchased or used by participants in the credit ecosystem. This includes fees associated with score usage by lenders and other businesses that pull consumer credit scores in underwriting and account management, as well as through channels that distribute scores (e.g., credit bureaus and other intermediaries that deliver scores as part of credit reports or related services). Revenue in this stream is generally tied to the volume of score pulls/uses and contractual pricing/royalty arrangements. 2) Software (platform and applications): FICO sells decision-management software that helps organizations automate and optimize high-stakes decisions. This includes revenue from software licenses and/or subscriptions (depending on the product and contract structure), ongoing maintenance and support, and professional services associated with implementation, configuration, and customer success. These solutions are used for use cases such as credit decisioning, fraud detection, financial crime, collections, customer communications, and broader optimization/analytics. Key factors influencing earnings include: adoption of newer FICO score versions and related pricing/contract renewals; the overall level of lending/credit activity that drives score volumes; enterprise customer demand for risk, fraud, and decisioning platforms; and long-term customer contracts that can provide recurring software and support revenue. If specific partnership terms, customer names, or detailed contract pricing are not publicly available in a given source, they are null.

Fair Isaac Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Excellent profitability and cash generation (TTM gross margin ~82%, net margin ~33%, EBIT margin ~47%; TTM operating cash flow ~$759M and free cash flow ~$735M). However, the balance sheet is a major risk with negative equity (TTM about -$1.81B) and rising total debt (~$3.21B TTM) that reduces financial flexibility, especially if growth continues to slow.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin is ~82% and net margin is ~33%, with operating profitability also very strong (EBIT margin ~47%). Revenue has grown consistently across the annual periods shown (from ~$1.32B in 2021 to ~$1.99B in 2025), and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth remains positive. The main watch-out is the evident slowdown in growth more recently (2025 annual growth is modest versus prior years), which can pressure valuation and future operating leverage if it persists.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the weak link. Stockholders’ equity is negative across all periods shown (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) about -$1.81B), which makes leverage look structurally high and indicates the capital structure is heavily debt/obligation-supported rather than equity-supported. Total debt is sizable and rising (about $1.33B in 2021 to ~$3.21B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)) while total assets are materially lower (~$1.85B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), limiting balance-sheet flexibility. While the business is highly profitable, the negative equity profile elevates financial risk and reduces cushion in a downturn.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and high-quality. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$759M) and free cash flow (~$735M) are robust relative to net income, with free cash flow running at roughly the same level as earnings (TTM free cash flow to net income ~0.96). Free cash flow growth is slightly negative TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), suggesting some recent normalization, but multi-year cash flow generation remains solid overall. One caution: cash flow covers accounting profits well, but it is not consistently above them, so there is limited extra cushion if working capital or cash taxes swing.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.06B	1.99B	1.72B	1.51B	1.38B	1.32B
Gross Profit	1.71B	1.64B	1.37B	1.20B	1.08B	984.07M
EBITDA	1.01B	951.19M	761.49M	663.81M	560.74M	538.83M
Net Income	657.79M	651.95M	512.81M	429.38M	373.54M	392.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.85B	1.87B	1.72B	1.58B	1.44B	1.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	162.03M	134.14M	150.67M	136.78M	133.20M	195.35M
Total Debt	3.23B	3.07B	2.24B	1.90B	1.91B	1.33B
Total Liabilities	3.66B	3.61B	2.68B	2.26B	2.24B	1.68B
Stockholders Equity	-1.81B	-1.75B	-962.68M	-687.99M	-801.95M	-110.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	735.08M	769.88M	607.41M	464.68M	503.42M	416.25M
Operating Cash Flow	758.89M	778.81M	632.96M	468.92M	509.45M	423.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-47.51M	-43.72M	-27.99M	-15.95M	-5.67M	137.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-739.59M	-750.33M	-592.92M	-455.00M	-547.16M	-523.57M

Fair Isaac Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1131.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FICO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1131.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1338.08, below the 50-day MA of 1445.73, and below the 200-day MA of 1590.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -63.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FICO.

Fair Isaac Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTD	73 Outperform	$13.01B	41.10	16.89%	―	20.82%	41.82%
DT	72 Outperform	$11.45B	81.46	6.81%	―	18.50%	207.45%
WDAY	69 Neutral	$34.20B	66.22	7.97%	―	13.35%	-60.76%
FICO	65 Neutral	$26.83B	63.31	-43.31%	―	15.91%	29.42%
DDOG	65 Neutral	$43.93B	438.37	3.24%	―	26.63%	-46.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
TEAM	56 Neutral	$19.91B	-250.38	-13.32%	―	19.51%	53.35%

Fair Isaac Corporate Events

Fair Isaac Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On March 11, 2026, Fair Isaac Corp. priced a $1.0 billion private offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034, sold at par to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to certain non‑U.S. investors under Regulation S. The company expects to close the transaction on March 20, 2026, subject to customary conditions.

FICO plans to use the proceeds to repay borrowings under its unsecured revolving credit facility, fully redeem $400 million of 5.25% senior notes due 2026 issued in 2018, and cover related fees and general corporate purposes, including potential share repurchases. The move effectively extends the firm’s debt maturity profile and may provide added balance sheet flexibility while retiring higher‑coupon legacy debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (FICO) stock is a Hold with a $1401.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fair Isaac stock, see the FICO Stock Forecast page.

Fair Isaac Launches $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On March 11, 2026, FICO announced it had begun a $1.0 billion private offering of senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers in the U.S. and to non-U.S. investors under applicable securities exemptions. The company plans to use the proceeds to repay borrowings under its unsecured revolving credit facility, fund the full redemption of $400 million of 5.25% senior notes due 2026 issued in 2018, and cover related fees, expenses and general corporate purposes, including potential share repurchases.

Also on March 11, 2026, FICO said it intended to issue a conditional notice to redeem the 2018 senior notes on March 26, 2026, contingent on successfully completing the new notes issuance on terms satisfactory to the company. The transaction is poised to extend FICO’s debt maturity profile and may lower refinancing risk while providing flexibility for capital allocation, which could affect leverage, interest costs and potential returns to shareholders through buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (FICO) stock is a Hold with a $1350.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fair Isaac stock, see the FICO Stock Forecast page.

Fair Isaac Shareholders Approve Governance Changes and Directors

At its annual meeting held on March 4, 2026, Fair Isaac shareholders elected all eight board nominees, confirming the existing slate of directors with strong majorities and solid turnout from the 23.8 million shares eligible to vote. Investors also approved, on a non-binding basis, the company’s executive compensation program, signaling continued support for current leadership and pay practices.

Shareholders ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as independent auditor for fiscal 2026, maintaining continuity in the company’s financial oversight. They further approved amendments to the certificate of incorporation to permit officer exculpation under Delaware law and to eliminate a supermajority voting requirement, changes that streamline governance and modestly enhance shareholder influence over future bylaw amendments.

The most recent analyst rating on (FICO) stock is a Buy with a $1350.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fair Isaac stock, see the FICO Stock Forecast page.