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EDreams ODIGEO S.A. (ES:EDR)
BME:EDR

EDreams ODIGEO (EDR) AI Stock Analysis

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ES:EDR

EDreams ODIGEO

(BME:EDR)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
€3.50
▲(3.24% Upside)
EDreams ODIGEO's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are offset by technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum. The stock's undervaluation presents an opportunity, but high leverage and immediate operational challenges pose risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Profitability
Sustained high revenue growth with strong gross and EBITDA margins indicates a scalable OTA model and disciplined cost control. Durable unit economics support reinvestment in product, marketing, and geographic expansion, increasing resilience through travel cycles.
Free Cash Flow & Cash Conversion
Robust cash generation and healthy conversion of earnings into free cash flow provide lasting financial flexibility. This strengthens the company’s ability to fund growth initiatives, service debt, and execute capital allocation without heavy reliance on external financing.
Subscription (Prime) Growth & Monetization
Rapid Prime membership expansion and tests showing higher lifetime value from monthly payments signal durable subscription monetization. A growing, sticky membership base enhances recurring revenue, customer retention, and cross-sell potential across flights, rail and ancillaries.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk. In a cyclical travel industry, elevated debt limits the company's ability to absorb prolonged demand shocks or accelerate strategic investments without compromising balance sheet stability.
Distribution / Supplier Risk (Ryanair)
Heavy reliance on airline distribution exposes the business to abrupt supplier actions. A >80% hit to daily bookings from one carrier is a structural risk to customer acquisition, conversion and margins, and may force higher marketing spend or product changes to replace lost volume.
Capital Allocation vs Near-Term Cash Impact
Executing a sizable buyback while facing near-term cash EBITDA headwinds and elevated leverage can constrain liquidity and limit options to deleverage or invest. This capital-return choice raises execution risk if travel demand or cash generation underperforms expectations.

EDreams ODIGEO (EDR) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)

EDreams ODIGEO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptioneDreams ODIGEO S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online travel company in Europe. The company offers its online travel agency services under the eDreams, Go Voyages, Opodo, Travellink, and Liligo brands. It also provides marketing, admin and IT consulting, and metasearch services, as well as offers online advertising campaigns. Its customers access the deals in regular flights, low-cost airlines, hotels, car rental, dynamic packages, holiday packages, and travel insurance. eDreams ODIGEO S.A. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
How the Company Makes MoneyEDreams ODIGEO generates revenue primarily through its online travel agency model, which includes a commission-based structure from airlines, hotels, and other travel service providers. Key revenue streams include booking fees charged to customers, commissions on airline ticket sales, and revenue from ancillary services such as travel insurance and car rentals. The company also benefits from partnerships with various airlines and hotel chains, which provide access to exclusive deals and promotions, enhancing the attractiveness of its offerings. Additionally, EDR invests in digital marketing and technology to drive customer acquisition and retention, further contributing to its overall revenue growth.

EDreams ODIGEO Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong growth in Prime membership and profitability, alongside strategic shifts to monthly payments and geographic expansion, which are expected to drive future growth. However, challenges such as Ryanair's blocking efforts and short-term impacts on cash EBITDA due to strategic investments present immediate concerns.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Prime Membership Growth
Prime members grew by 18% to 7.7 million, with 457,000 added in the first half of FY '26.
Increased Profitability
Cash EBITDA reached EUR 94 million, growing 16% year-on-year, with an improvement in cash EBITDA margin by 5 percentage points from 22% to 28%.
Strategic Shift to Monthly Payments
Test results show a preference for monthly payments, leading to higher lifetime value and conversion rates, with a 13% increase in lifetime value.
Geographic Expansion and Product Diversification
Expansion into 14 new markets with positive results, and entry into the European rail market with promising growth potential.
AI Adoption and Technological Advancements
Massive scale adoption of Generative AI, with over 400 billion tokens processed annually, enhancing various business operations.
Negative Updates
Ryanair OTA Blocking
Ryanair's intensified OTA blocking efforts have reduced average daily bookings by over 80%, impacting new customer acquisition.
Revenue Margin Changes
Overall revenue margin increased by 5%, but cash revenue margin saw a 6% decrease due to a planned 22% reduction in non-Prime revenue margin.
Short-Term Cash EBITDA Impact
Investment and changes to monthly payments will cause cash EBITDA to decrease to EUR 155 million in FY '26 and EUR 115 million in FY '27.
Company Guidance
During the call, eDreams ODIGEO provided comprehensive guidance for the next four years, highlighting several key metrics. The company reported a strong first half of fiscal year 2026, with Prime membership growing by 18% to 7.7 million and Cash EBITDA increasing by 16% year-on-year to EUR 94 million. The new strategic plan aims for substantial growth, with Prime members projected to rise by 600,000 annually in fiscal '26 and '27, and a 15-20% annual growth from fiscal '28, reaching over 13 million by fiscal '30. The plan includes transitioning to monthly and quarterly payment models, which has shown a 13% higher lifetime value and a 10% increase in Net Promoter Score compared to annual payments. Despite immediate headwinds from Ryanair's intensified OTA blocking efforts, eDO maintains a strong financial outlook, with cash EBITDA expected to reach over EUR 270 million by fiscal year '30, growing more than 33% annually from fiscal '27 to '30. The company also commits to a EUR 100 million share buyback over the next two years, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy and shareholder value creation.

EDreams ODIGEO Financial Statement Overview

Summary
EDreams ODIGEO shows strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability. The company effectively utilizes its equity to generate returns, but high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
EDreams ODIGEO has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 48.2%. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a gross profit margin of 68.2% and a net profit margin of 8.7% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 13.9% and 20.6%, respectively. These figures indicate a solid financial performance and effective cost management.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.47, indicating significant leverage. However, the return on equity is strong at 23.9%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 22.6%, reflecting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory, with a free cash flow growth rate of 30.8% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.26, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.60 suggests a healthy conversion of earnings into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue687.11M671.18M650.51M587.76M398.28M107.17M
Gross Profit496.26M671.18M558.29M569.59M382.58M63.31M
EBITDA162.77M116.24M77.58M23.61M-6.26M-73.81M
Net Income75.25M45.07M32.36M-43.34M-65.87M-124.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.12B1.16B1.15B1.07B1.08B986.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments45.16M78.64M93.90M35.93M45.93M12.14M
Total Debt384.96M379.33M380.64M385.70M424.26M513.23M
Total Liabilities869.01M911.83M880.44M837.63M802.61M727.77M
Stockholders Equity253.35M250.25M274.53M236.30M272.52M258.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow111.53M91.03M89.73M64.37M92.22M-21.28M
Operating Cash Flow170.57M146.41M138.88M102.53M119.15M428.00K
Investing Cash Flow-59.13M-55.55M-48.80M-38.15M-26.92M-21.66M
Financing Cash Flow-116.03M-105.61M-31.05M-67.74M-50.93M-69.45M

EDreams ODIGEO Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.39
Price Trends
50DMA
4.04
Negative
100DMA
5.90
Negative
200DMA
6.98
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Negative
RSI
29.42
Positive
STOCH
29.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:EDR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.72, below the 50-day MA of 4.04, and below the 200-day MA of 6.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.42 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ES:EDR.

EDreams ODIGEO Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
€391.87M5.1829.98%6.79%130.31%
66
Neutral
€9.64B25.2228.47%0.52%6.92%57.04%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
€25.27B19.1527.50%2.24%8.08%11.80%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ES:EDR
EDreams ODIGEO
3.39
-5.45
-61.65%
ES:AMS
Amadeus IT Group S.A
58.00
-8.19
-12.37%
ES:IDR
Indra Sistemas
54.75
36.47
199.52%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025