Equinor ASA (EQNR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $94.97B
• Dividend Yield: 7.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.04
• Revenue Growth: 1.53%
• EPS Growth: -35.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,126
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.81
• Shares Outstanding: 2,556,807,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,331,877
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,922,849
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.49
• 1Y Price Target: $29.75
• Price Target Upside: -22.79% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $99.18B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(3.82% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score reflects solid but cooling financial performance (profitability and balance-sheet resilience, tempered by lower revenue/margins and weaker FCF conversion), supported by constructive earnings-call guidance on cost/capital discipline and shareholder returns. Technicals show a strong trend but overbought momentum raises near-term risk, while valuation and a ~4% dividend are moderately supportive.

Positive Factors

Strong production & reserve replacement

Record production (2.14m bbl/d) combined with a three-year reserve replacement ratio of 100% supports a durable volume base. Consistent replacement reduces reliance on large acquisitions, helps sustain future operating cash flow and underpins long-term capital allocation planning.

Robust cash generation & returns

Sustained operating cash flow (~$18bn) and healthy ROACE (14.5%) provide durable funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. Strong cash generation improves resilience through commodity cycles and allows the company to maintain shareholder distributions while funding organic projects.

Manageable leverage and sizeable equity

Improved leverage metrics and a large equity base give balance-sheet flexibility to absorb project financing draws, tax‑timing effects and strategic investment. This financial headroom supports multi-year project execution and reduces refinancing risk across cycles.

Negative Factors

Weaker free-cash-flow conversion

Lower free-cash-flow and reduced conversion of earnings into discretionary cash constrains the company’s ability to fund growth, dividends and buybacks without leaning on the balance sheet. In a capital-intensive industry this raises sensitivity to prolonged weak prices or tax timing shifts.

Empire Wind legal and tariff risk

Ongoing legal and tariff uncertainty for Empire Wind creates above-ground political and execution risk. Delays, higher CapEx or tariff outcomes can materially shift project economics and postpone expected ITC and cashflow timing, affecting long-term returns on the project.

Scaling back renewables & low-carbon investment

A deliberate $4bn CapEx reduction in power and low‑carbon weakens near-term build-out of renewable capacity and CCS/hydrogen projects. This delays diversification of revenue streams and may slow structural decarbonization progress versus peers during a multi-year energy transition.

Equinor ASA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Equinor ASA, an energy company, engages in the exploration, production, transportation, refining, and marketing of petroleum and petroleum-derived products, and other forms of energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Exploration & Production Norway; Exploration & Production International; Exploration & Production USA; Marketing, Midstream & Processing; Renewables; and Other segments. The company also transports, processes, manufactures, markets, and trades in oil and gas commodities, such as crude and condensate products, gas liquids, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas; markets and trades in electricity and emission rights; operates refineries, terminals and processing, and power plants; and develops low carbon solutions for oil and gas. In addition, it develops wind, and carbon capture and storage projects, as well as offers other renewable energy. As of December 31, 2021, the company had proved oil and gas reserves of 5,356 million barrels of oil equivalent. Equinor ASA has collaboration agreements with Vårgrønn; and RWE Renewables and Hydro REIN. The company was formerly known as Statoil ASA and changed its name to Equinor ASA in May 2018. Equinor ASA was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Stavanger, Norway.

How the Company Makes Money

Equinor makes money primarily by selling energy and energy-related products and services. The company’s largest revenue stream historically comes from upstream oil and natural gas production: it generates revenue by producing hydrocarbons from operated and non-operated fields and selling volumes into regional and global markets, with realized prices influenced by benchmark oil prices, regional gas pricing (including long-term contracts and spot exposure), and production volumes. A second major contributor is marketing, midstream, and processing: Equinor earns revenue and margin from buying, selling, transporting, storing, and processing crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, power, and related commodities, including trading and optimization activities where earnings depend on merchandising margins, logistics access (pipelines, terminals, shipping), and risk management. Equinor also earns revenue from downstream and product-related activities where applicable, including the sale of refined products or other energy products through its commercial channels, to the extent these activities are part of its portfolio. In addition, Equinor is expanding earnings sources from renewables and low-carbon solutions: it can generate revenue by developing, owning, and operating power-generation assets (notably offshore wind) and selling electricity under merchant pricing or contracted arrangements, and by developing decarbonization projects such as carbon capture and storage where revenue may come from service fees or contracted payments when applicable. Across the portfolio, cash flow is materially affected by commodity prices, production uptime, project execution, fiscal regimes (including taxes and royalties), and the company’s ability to secure market access and long-term sales agreements; if specific partnership terms or contract structures for individual projects are not publicly specified in a given source, they are null.

Equinor ASA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals remain sound with manageable leverage and continued profitability/cash generation, but results have clearly cooled from peak-cycle levels. 2025 showed sharp revenue decline, margin compression, and weaker free-cash-flow conversion versus prior years, underscoring commodity-cycle sensitivity.

Income Statement

Profitability remains positive in 2025, but the earnings profile has clearly cooled from the 2021–2022 peak. Revenue declined sharply in 2025 (down ~85% year over year), and margins compressed materially versus 2022–2024 (net margin ~4.8% in 2025 vs ~8.6% in 2024 and ~19.3% in 2022). The business still posts healthy operating profitability (EBIT margin ~25% in 2025), but results show high commodity-cycle sensitivity and weaker momentum versus prior years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for an integrated oil & gas company, with debt-to-equity improving from 2020 (~1.13x) to 2023–2025 (~0.66–0.83x). Equity remains sizable (~$40B in 2025), supporting balance-sheet resilience. That said, returns on equity have come down meaningfully from the extraordinary 2022 level (~53%) to ~12.5% in 2025, reflecting a less favorable earnings environment and reducing the balance sheet’s profitability profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid but weakening versus prior years. Operating cash flow was ~$20.0B in 2025 (roughly stable vs 2024), yet free cash flow fell to ~$6.0B (down ~12% year over year) and is well below 2021–2022 levels. Free cash flow is also relatively low compared with net income in 2025 (about 30%), suggesting less efficient conversion of earnings into discretionary cash—an important watch item in a capital-intensive business.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	106.16B	102.50B	106.85B	149.00B	88.74B
Gross Profit	28.50B	42.63B	48.04B	88.81B	41.87B
EBITDA	36.46B	41.95B	49.59B	86.27B	44.07B
Net Income	5.06B	8.81B	11.88B	28.75B	8.56B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	131.73B	131.14B	143.58B	158.02B	147.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.33B	23.45B	38.87B	39.31B	33.28B
Total Debt	33.44B	30.09B	31.80B	32.17B	36.24B
Total Liabilities	91.23B	88.76B	95.08B	104.03B	108.10B
Stockholders Equity	40.42B	42.34B	48.49B	53.99B	39.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.00B	7.93B	14.13B	26.38B	20.78B
Operating Cash Flow	20.03B	20.11B	24.70B	35.14B	28.82B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.63B	-3.53B	-12.41B	-15.86B	-16.21B
Financing Cash Flow	-11.56B	-17.74B	-18.14B	-15.41B	-4.84B

Equinor ASA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EQNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.16, above the 50-day MA of 28.28, and above the 200-day MA of 25.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EQNR.

Equinor ASA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PBR	77 Outperform	$120.42B	3.80	27.02%	14.10%	-11.63%	-15.67%
SHEL	71 Outperform	$258.84B	12.10	10.06%	3.92%	-6.96%	0.03%
EQNR	67 Neutral	$94.97B	12.11	3.33%	7.43%	1.53%	-35.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
E	62 Neutral	$77.43B	19.50	5.20%	5.41%	-3.84%	15.75%
BP	60 Neutral	$113.45B	1,640.39	0.10%	5.62%	-4.11%	-37.59%

Equinor ASA Corporate Events

Equinor ramps up 2026 buy-back, now holds 2.42% of own shares

Between 16 and 20 February 2026, Equinor ASA repurchased 645,764 of its own shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange at an average price of NOK 268.88, as part of the first tranche of its 2026 share buy-back programme that began on 5 February. Including previously disclosed repurchases in this tranche, the company has bought back a total of 1,417,208 shares for NOK 377.27 million, lifting its treasury holdings to 61,943,420 shares, or 2.42% of share capital, a move that underscores its ongoing capital-return strategy and may support earnings per share and shareholder value.

The buy-backs, carried out exclusively on the Oslo venue in this period, leave Equinor holding 52,319,961 shares, or 2.05% of capital, when excluding stock reserved for employee share savings. The disclosure, made on 24 February 2026 under EU Market Abuse Regulation and Norwegian securities law, provides investors with granular detail on execution prices and volumes, reinforcing transparency around Equinor’s active balance-sheet management and capital allocation framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (EQNR) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Equinor ASA stock, see the EQNR Stock Forecast page.

Equinor Expands Fourth Tranche of 2025 Share Buy-Back with January Purchases

Between 5 and 9 January 2026, Equinor ASA repurchased 1,489,502 of its own shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange at an average price of NOK 236.92 per share, as part of the fourth tranche of its 2025 share buy-back programme, which was announced on 29 October 2025 and runs until no later than 2 February 2026. These latest purchases bring total buy-backs under the fourth tranche to 13,963,741 shares for a cumulative consideration of about NOK 3.31 billion, and increase Equinor’s treasury holdings to 58,321,934 shares, or 2.28% of its share capital (1.85% excluding shares held for its share savings programme), underscoring the company’s ongoing strategy of returning capital to investors and actively managing its equity base.

The most recent analyst rating on (EQNR) stock is a Buy with a $260.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Equinor ASA stock, see the EQNR Stock Forecast page.