Equinor ASA (EQNR) AI Stock Analysis

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Equinor ASA

(NYSE:EQNR)

79Outperform

Equinor ASA's stock score is bolstered by strong financial performance and attractive valuation metrics, despite challenges in revenue growth and renewables. Positive technical indicators and strategic guidance from the earnings call further support the stock's outlook, though geopolitical risks should be considered.

Positive Factors

Global Gas Prices

EQNR has held up against peers, which could be due to global gas prices holding up better than expected and timing of gas oversupply getting pushed in prior years.

Project Developments

Near-term catalysts include Castberg startup and Empire Wind.

Negative Factors

Buyback Strategy

We estimate EQNR will reduce its buyback from $5B in 2025 to $1.6B in 2026.

Cash Distribution

The cash distribution outlook was disappointing.

Equinor ASA (EQNR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$62.92B

Dividend Yield4.98%

Average Volume (3M)4.14M

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4

Beta (1Y)0.24

Revenue Growth-4.07%

EPS Growth-20.34%

CountryUS

Employees24,126

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength46

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.63

Shares Outstanding2,792,781,300

10 Day Avg. Volume4,764,422

30 Day Avg. Volume4,144,873

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.71

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$26.40

Price Target Upside13.21% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Equinor ASA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEquinor ASA, an energy company, engages in the exploration, production, transportation, refining, and marketing of petroleum and petroleum-derived products, and other forms of energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Exploration & Production Norway; Exploration & Production International; Exploration & Production USA; Marketing, Midstream & Processing; Renewables; and Other segments. The company also transports, processes, manufactures, markets, and trades in oil and gas commodities, such as crude and condensate products, gas liquids, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas; markets and trades in electricity and emission rights; operates refineries, terminals and processing, and power plants; and develops low carbon solutions for oil and gas. In addition, it develops wind, and carbon capture and storage projects, as well as offers other renewable energy. As of December 31, 2021, the company had proved oil and gas reserves of 5,356 million barrels of oil equivalent. Equinor ASA has collaboration agreements with Vårgrønn; and RWE Renewables and Hydro REIN. The company was formerly known as Statoil ASA and changed its name to Equinor ASA in May 2018. Equinor ASA was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Stavanger, Norway.

How the Company Makes MoneyEquinor ASA generates revenue through various streams, primarily centered around its oil and gas operations. The company makes money by exploring and extracting crude oil and natural gas, which are then processed, refined, and sold to markets around the world. Additionally, Equinor operates midstream and downstream activities that include the transportation, refining, and marketing of oil and gas products. Moreover, Equinor is increasingly investing in renewable energy projects, such as offshore wind farms, which contribute to its revenue. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its capabilities and expand its market reach. These efforts, combined with its focus on operational efficiency and cost management, help drive Equinor's profitability.

Equinor ASA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Equinor ASA's financial performance shows strong profitability margins and efficient cash flow management, with a solid balance sheet. However, there are challenges in revenue growth and a decrease in stockholders' equity that need monitoring.

Income Statement

Positive

Equinor ASA shows a consistent revenue base despite some fluctuations. Gross and net profit margins indicate strong profitability, though there is a noticeable decline from previous years. Revenue growth has faced challenges recently, highlighting potential industry risks. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Equinor ASA is solid, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio indicating a balanced leverage position. Return on equity demonstrates reasonable profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting sound asset utilization. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity presents a potential concern.

Cash Flow

Positive

Equinor ASA's cash flow is strong with healthy operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating efficient cash generation. Free cash flow has declined, but remains positive, pointing to effective capital management. The company's ability to generate cash supports its financial flexibility.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
102.50B	106.85B	149.00B	88.74B	45.75B
	Gross Profit
41.93B	48.04B	88.81B	41.87B	9.53B
	EBIT
30.93B	35.77B	78.81B	33.66B	-2.87B
	EBITDA
39.56B	50.18B	85.75B	42.98B	6.60B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.81B	11.88B	28.75B	8.56B	-5.50B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
23.45B	38.87B	45.45B	33.28B	18.62B
	Total Assets
131.14B	143.58B	158.02B	147.12B	121.97B
	Total Debt
30.09B	31.80B	32.17B	36.24B	38.12B
	Net Debt
21.97B	22.16B	16.59B	24.21B	31.36B
	Total Liabilities
88.76B	95.08B	104.03B	108.10B	88.08B
	Stockholders Equity
42.34B	48.49B	53.99B	39.01B	33.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
7.93B	14.13B	26.38B	20.78B	1.91B
	Operating Cash Flow
20.11B	24.70B	35.14B	28.82B	10.39B
	Investing Cash Flow
-3.53B	-12.41B	-15.86B	-16.21B	-12.09B
	Financing Cash Flow
-17.74B	-18.14B	-15.41B	-4.84B	2.99B

Equinor ASA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price23.32

Price Trends

50DMA

23.89

Negative

100DMA

23.64

Negative

200DMA

23.94

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.35

Positive

RSI

44.90

Neutral

STOCH

62.40

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EQNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.57, below the 50-day MA of 23.89, and below the 200-day MA of 23.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EQNR.

Equinor ASA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EQNR	79 Outperform	$62.92B	7.45	19.39%	4.98%	-4.07%	-20.34%
SHEL	79 Outperform	$180.57B	12.15	8.82%	4.43%	-5.74%	-11.09%
TTE	78 Outperform	$115.97B	8.20	13.43%	4.79%	-10.66%	-23.19%
E	77 Outperform	$41.37B	15.72	5.58%	5.44%	-5.16%	-41.74%
PBR	66 Neutral	$70.37B	10.70	10.52%	23.43%	-10.81%	-70.65%
BP	61 Neutral	$68.32B	186.20	0.59%	6.71%	-9.97%	-98.08%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$7.08B	3.69	-5.71%	6.15%	-1.38%	-53.90%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

EQNR

Equinor ASA

23.32

-1.53

-6.16%

28.32

-7.56

-21.07%

Eni SPA

27.87

-2.81

-9.16%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

11.62

-1.36

-10.48%

SHEL

Shell

64.03

-4.21

-6.17%

TTE

TotalEnergies

58.46

-9.29

-13.71%

Equinor ASA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -3.48% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a strong financial performance and increased production outlook, highlighting Equinor's achievements in safety, financial returns, and shareholder distribution. However, challenges in the renewables and low-carbon sectors, alongside geopolitical risks, present notable concerns.

Highlights

Record Safety Performance

Equinor achieved its best safety results ever with a serious incident frequency reduced to 0.3, a 73% reduction since 2011.

Strong Financial Performance

Equinor reported a 21% return on capital employed for the year and generated $18 billion in cash flow from operations after tax, surpassing initial guidance.

Increased Production Outlook

Oil and gas production is expected to grow by more than 10% from 2024 to 2027, with a target of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 2 million in the previous outlook.

Competitive Capital Distribution

For 2025, Equinor is planning a total capital distribution of $9 billion, including a $0.02 increase in quarterly cash dividend and $5 billion for share buybacks.

Lowlights

Challenges in Renewables and Low-Carbon Solutions

Equinor reduced its investments in renewables and low-carbon solutions by 50% compared to last year's outlook, citing market challenges and delays in customer commitments.

Empire Wind Project Risks

The Empire Wind project faces challenges with returns under pressure and uncertainty related to tax credits and political risks, although it is progressing with significant derisking.

Geopolitical and Market Uncertainty

Equinor acknowledged high market and political uncertainty, affecting energy markets and projects like Rosebank, which faces regulatory and political risks.

Company Guidance

During Equinor's Capital Market Update for 2024, several key metrics and strategic directions were highlighted. The company aims to achieve industry-leading returns with a projected return on capital employed of over 15% through 2030. Equinor plans to double its production growth, with a target of more than 10% increase in oil and gas production from 2024 to 2027, and expects to deliver a free cash flow of $23 billion over the next three years. In 2025, the Board has proposed a total capital distribution of $9 billion, including a $0.02 increase in the quarterly cash dividend and a $5 billion share buyback. Operational performance improvements were noted, with the Johan Sverdrup and Troll fields achieving a combined production efficiency close to 95% in 2024. Additionally, Equinor is adjusting its investment strategy in renewables, reducing spending by 50% compared to last year's outlook, and targeting 10-12 gigawatts of installed renewable capacity by 2030. The company's focus remains on delivering strong shareholder value through strategic adaptation to market conditions and leveraging operational efficiencies.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.