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Volkswagen Ag (UK)(GB) (DE:VOW)
:VOW

Volkswagen (VOW) AI Stock Analysis

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DE

Volkswagen

(LSE:VOW)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
Volkswagen's stock score reflects its strong valuation with an attractive P/E ratio and high dividend yield, signaling potential undervaluation. Financial performance is stable with solid revenue growth, though profitability and free cash flow challenges persist. Technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, with some short-term strength but caution in the longer term. Overall, the stock is appealing for value and income investors, but attention to profitability and cash flow trends is warranted.
Positive Factors
Regulatory Changes
Major regulatory changes are a sigh of relief for VW, with the European Commission proposing greater flexibility in EU's 2025 CO2 regulations, likely benefiting VW due to its lower BEV mix compared to other legacy EU automakers.
Valuation
Analyst recommends upgrading the HOLD call to BUY, with VW trading at undemanding valuations and offering attractive risk-reward relative to other EU OEMs.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Concerns
Demand risks related to sales in the key markets of Europe and China, and the mass-market customer segment amid concerns of a macroeconomic slowdown.
Market Demand
Key risks include demand risks related to sales in the key markets of Europe and China, and headwinds in the execution of its BEV transition/strategy and rising competition.

Volkswagen (VOW) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Volkswagen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVolkswagen AG manufactures and sells automobiles primarily in Europe, North America, South America, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates in four segments: Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles, Commercial Vehicles, Power Engineering, and Financial Services. The Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles segment develops vehicles, engines, and vehicle software; and light commercial vehicles; and produces and sells passenger cars and related parts. The Commercial Vehicles segment develops, produces, and sells trucks and buses; and offers parts and related services. The Power Engineering segment offers large-bore diesel engines, turbomachinery, and propulsion components. The Financial Services segment provides dealer and customer financing, leasing, banking and insurance, fleet management, and mobility services. The company also offers motorcycles. It provides its products under the Volkswagen Passenger Cars, Audi, ŠKODA, SEAT, Bentley, Porsche, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania, MAN, Lamborghini, Ducati, and Bugatti brands. Volkswagen AG was founded in 1937 and is based in Wolfsburg, Germany. Volkswagen AG operates as a subsidiary of Porsche Automobil Holding SE.
How the Company Makes MoneyVolkswagen makes money primarily through the sale of its vehicles, which include cars, trucks, and motorcycles under its multiple brand portfolio. A substantial portion of its revenue comes from the production and sale of passenger cars, complemented by sales of light commercial vehicles and heavy trucks. Additionally, Volkswagen generates income from its financial services division, which offers leasing, financing, and insurance services to both individual and corporate customers. The company's revenue model is bolstered by strategic partnerships and investments in electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, enhancing its product offerings and paving the way for future growth in these emerging markets.

Volkswagen Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Volkswagen shows solid revenue growth and a stable gross profit margin, highlighting efficient operations. However, profitability metrics like net profit and EBIT margins have faced pressure. The balance sheet reflects disciplined leverage but relies heavily on liabilities. Cash flow from operations remains strong, but negative free cash flow due to significant capital investments could pose risks. Overall, Volkswagen is financially stable but faces challenges in profitability and free cash flow.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Volkswagen has demonstrated solid revenue growth with a notable increase from €222.89 billion in 2020 to €324.66 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has been stable around 18-19%, indicating efficient cost management. However, net profit margin decreased from 5.15% in 2023 to 3.50% in 2024, suggesting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins show a slight decline, reflecting some operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.08, showing disciplined leverage. Stockholders' equity has grown consistently, reflecting a robust equity position. However, the equity ratio is around 28.8%, indicating a relatively high reliance on liabilities. Return on equity has declined slightly, which may be a concern for investors.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong, although it has decreased from €28.50 billion in 2022 to €17.15 billion in 2024. Free cash flow turned negative in recent years, indicating heavy capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative free cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
326.75B324.65B322.28B279.05B250.20B222.88B
Gross Profit
59.74B59.47B60.98B52.18B47.24B38.95B
EBIT
17.34B19.06B22.58B22.11B19.27B9.68B
EBITDA
50.93B51.60B49.84B50.01B46.69B36.35B
Net Income Common Stockholders
9.90B11.35B16.53B15.46B15.38B8.87B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
70.77B73.45B74.91B70.77B66.88B59.27B
Total Assets
564.01B632.90B600.34B564.01B528.61B497.11B
Total Debt
178.44B196.52B193.97B178.44B183.37B174.31B
Net Debt
149.26B156.22B150.52B149.26B143.65B140.40B
Total Liabilities
385.69B436.17B410.43B385.69B382.45B368.33B
Stockholders Equity
165.38B182.29B175.69B165.38B144.45B127.05B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-8.55B-10.29B-6.44B5.83B20.14B7.16B
Operating Cash Flow
18.36B17.15B19.36B28.50B38.63B24.90B
Investing Cash Flow
-31.23B-31.57B-19.81B-41.82B-26.13B-22.69B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.20B11.14B16.01B4.22B-7.75B7.64B

Volkswagen Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price94.70
Price Trends
50DMA
92.86
Positive
100DMA
94.78
Negative
200DMA
91.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.41
Positive
RSI
46.46
Neutral
STOCH
25.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VOW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 94.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.53, above the 50-day MA of 92.86, and above the 200-day MA of 91.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DE:VOW.

Volkswagen Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DEVOW
74
Outperform
€47.17B5.115.52%6.66%1.62%-38.38%
66
Neutral
$4.48B12.265.32%248.53%4.10%-12.36%
$56.62B6.129.32%7.83%
$54.33B7.827.02%5.22%
€10.51B2.07
5.57%
74
Outperform
€15.01B5.8314.10%5.79%-2.53%-4.91%
DEDTG
73
Outperform
€29.65B10.2612.77%5.07%-4.81%-22.95%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DE:VOW
Volkswagen
93.20
-23.90
-20.41%
MBGAF
Mercedes-Benz Group
58.71
-11.62
-16.52%
BAMXF
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft
85.99
-7.37
-7.89%
GB:0JHU
Porsche Automobil Holding
34.06
-10.68
-23.87%
DE:8TRA
TRATON SE
29.20
0.14
0.48%
DE:DTG
Daimler Truck Holding AG
37.63
1.09
2.98%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.