Vonovia (VNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €21.65B
• Dividend Yield: 4.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 28.86%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 12,306
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 835,767,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,188,714
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,252,391
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €37.33
• Price Target Upside: 42.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: €29.00 ▲(11.07% Upside)

Vonovia's overall stock score reflects a company with strong revenue growth and cash flow management but facing challenges with profitability and high leverage. The technical analysis indicates a lack of strong momentum, and the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The dividend yield provides some support, but overall, the stock presents a balanced risk-reward profile.

Positive Factors

Analyst Recommendation

Analyst's recommendation for Vonovia remains a 'Buy' with a price target of EUR 41.00.

Financial Performance

Vonovia's portfolio value has stabilized, supported by higher rental income.

Operational Performance

The low vacancy rates and high rent collection rate indicate strong operational performance.

Negative Factors

Financial Challenges

Vonovia is still hamstrung by a regulated market, rising refinancing rates, and an LTV that is still too elevated.

Interest Rate Volatility

Vonovia's shares have been the epitome of interest rate driven volatility, with nearly all gyrations being a function of bond market expectations.

Leadership Change

The CEO, Rolf Buch, will step down at the end of the year, and the company will see a leadership change with the appointment of Luka Mucic.

Vonovia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. It operates through five segments: Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, Development, and Deutsche Wohnen. The company offers property management services; apartments and property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, residential environment organization, condominium administration, cable TV, metering, energy supply, and insurances services. It also engages in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 565,334 residential units; 168,015 garages and parking spaces; and 9,289 commercial units, as well as managed 71,173 residential units for other owners in Germany, Austria, and Sweden. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia generates revenue primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties. The company owns and manages a large number of apartments, which provide a stable and recurring revenue stream. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property development, allowing it to create new residential units and enhance existing properties, thus increasing their value. The company also implements value-add strategies, including renovations and upgrades, to improve rental yields. Significant partnerships with local governments and municipalities for urban development projects further contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, Vonovia benefits from efficient property management practices and operational cost controls, which enhance its profitability.

Vonovia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vonovia demonstrates robust revenue growth and strong cash flow management, which are positive indicators for future performance. However, challenges with profitability and high leverage pose risks if not addressed.

Income Statement

Vonovia's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced significant revenue growth in the TTM period, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, profitability metrics such as net profit margin and EBIT margin have been volatile, with recent improvements but still below optimal levels. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, suggesting potential cost pressures. Overall, the income statement reflects growth potential but also highlights areas for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. While the equity ratio is stable, the return on equity has been inconsistent, with recent improvements but still low. The company's high leverage could be a concern if not managed carefully, although the stable equity ratio provides some reassurance.

Cash Flow

Vonovia's cash flow statement shows positive trends, with strong free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is consistently strong, suggesting good cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow position is a strength for the company, providing a buffer against financial volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.30B	5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B	3.15B
Gross Profit	2.41B	2.25B	2.46B	2.86B	2.23B	2.08B
EBITDA	2.68B	2.10B	2.17B	1.26B	1.98B	5.56B
Net Income	379.10M	-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B	3.27B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	90.14B	90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	106.32B	62.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.18B	2.02B	1.37B	1.20B	1.32B	453.40M
Total Debt	42.67B	43.21B	43.57B	45.69B	47.69B	24.63B
Total Liabilities	61.80B	62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B	37.59B
Stockholders Equity	24.19B	24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B	24.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.86B	2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B	1.16B
Operating Cash Flow	2.86B	2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B	1.43B
Investing Cash Flow	-221.20M	-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B	-1.73B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.51B	-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B	402.60M

Vonovia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 26.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.02, below the 50-day MA of 28.25, and below the 200-day MA of 27.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.46 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:VNA.

Vonovia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.95B	13.72	-0.50%	6.99%	4.08%	-25.24%
VNA	56 Neutral	€21.65B	56.96	1.29%	4.67%	28.86%	―
0QC9	―	€5.40B	8.52	8.02%	3.95%	―	―
0FJC	―	€626.66M	28.97	2.00%	―	―	―
GYC	68 Neutral	€1.79B	4.44	11.68%	―	0.19%	―
AT1	66 Neutral	€3.51B	4.89	9.56%	―	-1.82%	―
O5G	51 Neutral	€7.29B	―	-0.39%	―	-9.69%	97.58%