Vonovia (VNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €17.81B
• Dividend Yield: 5.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 22.80%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 12,306
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 848,261,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,651,215
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,807,606
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €32.73
• Price Target Upside: 52.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €3.51B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: €21.50 ▲(0.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is held back mainly by weak technicals (price below key moving averages, negative MACD, oversold momentum) and only moderate financial quality due to high leverage and volatile profitability. This is partially offset by attractive valuation metrics (very low P/E and high dividend yield).

Positive Factors

Scale & recurring rental income

Vonovia's large, diversified residential portfolio and long-term lease model generate stable, recurring rental cash flows. That scale reduces per-unit operating cost, supports predictable revenue over months, and underpins resilience versus short-term market swings in demand.

Consistent operating cash generation

Steady positive operating cash flow and historically positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance, modernization and debt service. Even with earnings volatility, reliable cash generation supports near-term liquidity and operational continuity.

Value‑add modernization capability

Active modernization and strategic construction partnerships raise asset quality and allow rent uplifts over time. This operational capability creates a repeatable value‑add engine that supports revenue growth and portfolio appreciation beyond passive market rent moves.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated absolute debt and high debt/equity reduce financial flexibility and increase exposure to rising interest rates or refinancing stress. A heavily leveraged capital structure limits capacity to absorb asset-value or earnings shocks over the medium term.

Volatile profitability & revenue

Wide swings in revenue and reported earnings signal sensitivity to cyclical and non‑operating factors. Such volatility undermines predictability of cash flow and complicates capital planning, making performance and dividend sustainability harder to rely on over coming quarters.

Free cash flow deterioration in 2025

A steep drop in free cash flow reduces headroom for reinvestment, debt servicing and discretionary returns. If the decline persists, it would strain liquidity and force tougher tradeoffs between capex, maintenance and deleveraging over the medium term.

Vonovia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. It operates through five segments: Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, Development, and Deutsche Wohnen. The company offers property management services; apartments and property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, residential environment organization, condominium administration, cable TV, metering, energy supply, and insurances services. It also engages in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 565,334 residential units; 168,015 garages and parking spaces; and 9,289 commercial units, as well as managed 71,173 residential units for other owners in Germany, Austria, and Sweden. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia generates revenue primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties, which comprises over 400,000 units. The company's revenue model is heavily based on long-term leases, providing stable and recurring income. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property management services, which contribute to its earnings. The company also benefits from value-added services such as modernization projects that enhance property quality and increase rental income. Strategic partnerships with construction and renovation firms enable Vonovia to improve its properties efficiently, further boosting its profitability. Moreover, the company may realize gains through the sale of properties and investments in new developments, diversifying its revenue streams.

Vonovia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is moderate: operating cash flow and free cash flow have stayed positive, but reported profitability and revenue are volatile (sharp revenue decline in 2025 after 2024 growth, large losses in 2023–2024 followed by a big 2025 profit). The balance sheet remains highly leveraged with ~€43B debt, limiting flexibility if asset values or earnings weaken.

Income Statement

Profitability is volatile. Revenue declined sharply in 2025 (-22.8%) after growth in 2024 (+13.6%). Earnings swung from a large loss in 2023 (-€6.3B) and a loss in 2024 (-€0.9B) to a strong profit in 2025 (€3.7B). Margins also moved materially across years (negative in 2022–2024 vs. very strong in 2020–2021), suggesting results are sensitive to cyclical and/or non-operating drivers rather than steady operating expansion.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint. Total debt remains very high and largely flat (~€43B in 2023–2025) while equity is sizeable but not growing consistently (down in 2024, up in 2025). Debt levels versus equity are elevated (about 1.7–1.8x in 2023–2024), leaving less flexibility if asset values or earnings weaken. Returns on equity also swung widely (negative in 2022–2024, positive again in 2025), reinforcing balance-sheet sensitivity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is comparatively steadier than earnings. Operating cash flow stayed positive each year (roughly €1.4B–€2.4B) and free cash flow was consistently positive. However, free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (-43.5%) after improving in 2024, and cash flow coverage metrics shown for 2022–2024 are modest, indicating debt servicing and reinvestment capacity should be watched closely.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.98B	5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B
Gross Profit	2.49B	2.25B	2.46B	2.86B	2.23B
EBITDA	3.08B	2.10B	-7.96B	1.26B	1.98B
Net Income	3.72B	-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	93.26B	90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	106.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.26B	2.02B	1.37B	1.20B	1.32B
Total Debt	43.31B	43.21B	43.57B	45.69B	47.69B
Total Liabilities	61.09B	62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B
Stockholders Equity	27.47B	24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.31B	2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B
Operating Cash Flow	1.66B	2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B
Investing Cash Flow	-403.30M	-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B
Financing Cash Flow	190.20M	-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B

Vonovia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.65, below the 50-day MA of 25.39, and below the 200-day MA of 26.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.15 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:VNA.

Vonovia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GYC	70 Outperform	€1.51B	3.69	11.82%	―	0.44%	―
PAT	69 Neutral	€585.46M	45.83	―	4.33%	0.23%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
LEG	63 Neutral	€4.13B	3.20	18.02%	4.45%	6.91%	―
AT1	58 Neutral	€2.50B	3.33	7.69%	―	-1.35%	―
O5G	53 Neutral	€5.94B	75.97	-0.36%	―	-9.44%	96.54%
VNA	52 Neutral	€17.81B	5.49	11.30%	5.08%	22.80%	―