Vonovia (VNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €23.58B
• Dividend Yield: 5.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 22.80%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 12,306
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 848,258,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,651,215
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,807,606
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €35.72
• Price Target Upside: 26.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €3.52B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: €24.50 ▼(-13.27% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/18/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/18/25

Vonovia's overall stock score reflects a mix of financial caution and potential valuation opportunity. The financial performance is weighed down by high leverage and cash flow concerns, while technical indicators show bearish momentum. However, the stock's low P/E ratio and high dividend yield suggest it may be undervalued, providing a potential opportunity for investors willing to accept the associated risks.

Positive Factors

Stable Margins

Stable gross and EBIT margins indicate operational efficiency, suggesting Vonovia can maintain profitability despite revenue challenges.

Revenue Model

The reliance on long-term leases provides stable and recurring income, ensuring consistent cash flow and financial stability.

Property Modernization

Modernization projects enhance property quality and increase rental income, supporting long-term revenue growth and asset value.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk, as it can lead to financial strain and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Declining Free Cash Flow

The decline in free cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity issues, which could affect the company's ability to fund operations and investments.

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth is concerning as it suggests challenges in maintaining market position and could impact long-term financial performance.

Vonovia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. It operates through five segments: Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, Development, and Deutsche Wohnen. The company offers property management services; apartments and property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, residential environment organization, condominium administration, cable TV, metering, energy supply, and insurances services. It also engages in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 565,334 residential units; 168,015 garages and parking spaces; and 9,289 commercial units, as well as managed 71,173 residential units for other owners in Germany, Austria, and Sweden. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia generates revenue primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties, which comprises over 400,000 units. The company's revenue model is heavily based on long-term leases, providing stable and recurring income. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property management services, which contribute to its earnings. The company also benefits from value-added services such as modernization projects that enhance property quality and increase rental income. Strategic partnerships with construction and renovation firms enable Vonovia to improve its properties efficiently, further boosting its profitability. Moreover, the company may realize gains through the sale of properties and investments in new developments, diversifying its revenue streams.

Vonovia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vonovia's financial statements present a mixed picture. The company shows operational efficiency with stable gross and EBIT margins, but revenue growth has been negative recently. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, typical for the industry, but poses a risk if not managed carefully. Cash flow challenges, particularly the decline in free cash flow growth, highlight potential liquidity issues. Overall, while there are positive aspects, the financials suggest caution due to leverage and cash flow concerns.

Income Statement

Vonovia's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth by 2.07%, which is concerning. However, the company has managed to maintain a positive net profit margin of 5.82% in the TTM, recovering from negative margins in previous years. The gross profit margin is stable at 40.31%, and the EBIT margin is 25.84%, indicating operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, the negative revenue growth and past profitability issues weigh on the overall score.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.76 in the TTM, which is typical for the real estate industry but indicates significant leverage. The return on equity has improved to 1.56% in the TTM, showing a recovery from negative values in previous years. The equity ratio stands at 28.43%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability. While the company is leveraging its equity effectively, the high debt levels pose a risk.

Cash Flow

Vonovia's cash flow statement reveals challenges with a 19.16% decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.91, indicating that cash flows are not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that free cash flow is aligned with net income. Despite these metrics, the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern for future liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.45B	5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B	3.15B
Gross Profit	2.63B	2.25B	2.46B	2.86B	2.23B	2.08B
EBITDA	2.42B	2.10B	-7.96B	1.26B	1.98B	5.56B
Net Income	2.80B	-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B	3.27B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	91.73B	90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	106.32B	62.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.36B	2.02B	1.37B	1.20B	1.32B	453.40M
Total Debt	43.68B	43.21B	43.57B	45.69B	47.69B	24.63B
Total Liabilities	60.17B	62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B	37.59B
Stockholders Equity	26.08B	24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B	24.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.32B	2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B	1.16B
Operating Cash Flow	2.55B	2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B	1.43B
Investing Cash Flow	-530.50M	-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B	-1.73B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.18B	-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B	402.60M

Vonovia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 28.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.14, above the 50-day MA of 25.18, and above the 200-day MA of 26.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VNA.

Vonovia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LEG	70 Outperform	€5.18B	4.34	15.11%	4.45%	6.91%	―
PAT	69 Neutral	€686.76M	21.73	―	4.33%	0.23%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GYC	61 Neutral	€1.85B	3.56	14.70%	―	0.44%	―
AT1	59 Neutral	€3.35B	4.09	10.60%	―	-1.35%	―
VNA	56 Neutral	€23.58B	8.34	10.56%	5.08%	22.80%	―
O5G	53 Neutral	€6.19B	-200.00	-0.56%	―	-9.44%	96.54%