Vonovia (VNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €24.05B
• Dividend Yield: 4.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 23.19%
• EPS Growth: 82.41%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 12,306
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 822,852,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,548,876
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,726,365
• PEG Ratio: -1.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €34.20
• Price Target Upside: 17.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: €30.00 ▲(2.92%Upside)

Vonovia's stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong revenue and cash flow but significant profitability challenges due to negative net income. Technical indicators show moderate bullish momentum, offering some positive outlook. Valuation is strained by a negative P/E ratio, though the dividend yield is a positive aspect for income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Financial Health

The company has improved its loan/value ratio and net debt/EBITDA, indicating better financial health.

Operational Performance

The low vacancy rates and high rent collection rate indicate strong operational performance.

Negative Factors

Interest Rates

Vonovia's shares have been the epitome of interest rate driven volatility this year, with nearly all gyrations being a function of bond market expectations.

Leadership Change

The CEO, Rolf Buch, will step down at the end of the year, and the company will see a leadership change with the appointment of Luka Mucic.

Refinancing Costs

Vonovia is still hamstrung by a regulated market, rising refinancing rates, and an LTV that is still too elevated.

Vonovia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE is a leading residential real estate company in Germany, focusing on managing, developing, and optimizing residential properties. The company operates in sectors such as property management, property development, and real estate services. Vonovia's core services include renting out residential units, maintaining properties, and providing energy-efficient housing solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia makes money primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties. The company generates revenue by leasing apartments, managing rental agreements, and maintaining the properties. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property development, where it constructs new residential buildings or renovates existing ones, ultimately adding them to its rental portfolio. Another revenue stream comes from providing real estate-related services, such as energy services, modernization, and maintenance, which enhance the value and sustainability of its properties. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships also play a role in expanding its asset base and increasing rental income.

Vonovia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vonovia shows strong cash flow generation and revenue growth, yet struggles with profitability due to negative net income and fluctuating EBIT margins. The balance sheet is robust with a high equity base, though high leverage is a concern.

Income Statement

Vonovia's revenue has shown a steady growth trajectory with a recent increase in TTM. However, the company is facing negative net income, significantly impacting net profit margins. Gross profit margin is stable, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in previous periods raise concerns about operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity base with an improving equity ratio. However, the high level of debt relative to equity poses a risk, although recent periods show a reduction in total debt. The return on equity is negatively impacted by consecutive net losses.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects solid operating cash flow with positive free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation despite net losses. However, the potential for growth in free cash flow is limited by negative net income and capital expenditures.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.25B	5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B	3.15B
	Gross Profit
2.65B	2.25B	2.46B	2.86B	2.23B	2.08B
	EBIT
1.48B	1.00B	1.76B	-363.70M	6.03B	5.46B
	EBITDA
2.21B	408.00M	2.17B	1.26B	1.98B	5.56B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-710.80M	-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B	3.27B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.85B	2.02B	1.37B	1.20B	1.32B	453.40M
	Total Assets
90.63B	90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	106.32B	62.42B
	Total Debt
831.60M	43.21B	43.57B	45.69B	47.69B	24.63B
	Net Debt
-1.35B	41.51B	42.20B	44.49B	46.38B	24.17B
	Total Liabilities
61.70B	62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B	37.59B
	Stockholders Equity
24.77B	24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B	24.15B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.29B	2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B	1.16B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.37B	2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B	1.43B
	Investing Cash Flow
97.10M	-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B	-1.73B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.80B	-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B	402.60M

Vonovia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.16, above the 50-day MA of 26.82, and above the 200-day MA of 28.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VNA.

Vonovia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GYC	71 Outperform	€1.89B	8.60	6.27%	―	-1.22%	―
LEG	65 Neutral	€5.52B	21.92	3.32%	3.64%	3.25%	―
AT1	63 Neutral	€3.18B	14.01	2.91%	―	-3.28%	―
PAT	61 Neutral	€694.48M	52.13	1.19%	4.19%	-7.62%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.82B	10.89	0.42%	8438.96%	5.74%	-20.95%
O5G	56 Neutral	€7.60B	―	-3.87%	―	-6.54%	76.78%
VNA	56 Neutral	€24.05B	―	-2.91%	4.19%	23.19%	82.41%