Vonovia (VNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €23.79B
• Dividend Yield: 4.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 28.86%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 12,306
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 835,621,460
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,354,549
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,102,791
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €36.58
• Price Target Upside: 28.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: €29.00 ▲(1.86% Upside)

Vonovia's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance and neutral technical indicators. While revenue growth and cash flow are strong, profitability issues and high leverage are significant concerns. The valuation is impacted by a negative P/E ratio, though the dividend yield offers some appeal.

Positive Factors

Dividend policy

The dividend increased by 35% compared to the prior year, aligning with the new policy of setting the payout ratio at 50% of EBT plus surplus liquidity from free cash flow.

Financial health

The company has improved its loan/value ratio and net debt/EBITDA, indicating better financial health.

Leadership change

The company will see a leadership change with the appointment of Luka Mucic as CEO, potentially bringing new strategic direction.

Negative Factors

Financial performance

Higher financing costs and increased payouts to minorities have led to a 7% decline in EBT per share year on year.

Interest rate volatility

Vonovia's shares have been the epitome of interest rate driven volatility, with nearly all gyrations being a function of bond market expectations.

Market challenges

Vonovia is still hamstrung by a regulated market, rising refinancing rates, and an LTV that is still too elevated.

Vonovia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. It operates through five segments: Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, Development, and Deutsche Wohnen. The company offers property management services; apartments and property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, residential environment organization, condominium administration, cable TV, metering, energy supply, and insurances services. It also engages in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 565,334 residential units; 168,015 garages and parking spaces; and 9,289 commercial units, as well as managed 71,173 residential units for other owners in Germany, Austria, and Sweden. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia generates revenue primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties. The company owns and manages a large number of apartments, which provide a stable and recurring revenue stream. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property development, allowing it to create new residential units and enhance existing properties, thus increasing their value. The company also implements value-add strategies, including renovations and upgrades, to improve rental yields. Significant partnerships with local governments and municipalities for urban development projects further contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, Vonovia benefits from efficient property management practices and operational cost controls, which enhance its profitability.

Vonovia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vonovia shows strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, but struggles with profitability due to negative net income and variable EBIT margins. The balance sheet is robust with a strong equity base, although high leverage is a concern.

Income Statement

Vonovia's revenue has shown a steady growth trajectory with a recent increase in TTM. However, the company is facing negative net income, significantly impacting net profit margins. Gross profit margin is stable, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in previous periods raise concerns about operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity base with an improving equity ratio. However, the high level of debt relative to equity poses a risk, although recent periods show a reduction in total debt. The return on equity is negatively impacted by consecutive net losses.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects solid operating cash flow with positive free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation despite net losses. However, the potential for growth in free cash flow is limited by negative net income and capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.25B	5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B	3.15B
Gross Profit	2.65B	2.25B	2.46B	2.86B	2.23B	2.08B
EBITDA	2.21B	408.00M	2.17B	1.26B	1.98B	5.56B
Net Income	-710.80M	-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B	3.27B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	64.12B	90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	106.32B	62.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.17B	2.02B	1.37B	1.20B	1.32B	453.40M
Total Debt	662.80M	43.21B	43.57B	45.69B	47.69B	24.63B
Total Liabilities	39.11B	62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B	37.59B
Stockholders Equity	24.33B	24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B	24.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.29B	2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B	1.16B
Operating Cash Flow	2.37B	2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B	1.43B
Investing Cash Flow	97.10M	-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B	-1.73B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.80B	-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B	402.60M

Vonovia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 28.47
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.93, below the 50-day MA of 28.73, and above the 200-day MA of 27.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VNA.

Vonovia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VNA	54 Neutral	€23.79B	62.59	1.29%	4.29%	28.86%	―
Sector *	53 Neutral	$1.23B	2.98	-2.60%	5.79%	-2.13%	-151.64%
0QC9	―	€5.44B	9.09	8.02%	3.70%	―	―
0FJC	―	€648.98M	48.84	1.19%	―	―	―
GYC	74 Outperform	€1.89B	8.59	6.27%	―	-1.22%	―
AT1	70 Outperform	€3.63B	16.08	2.91%	―	-3.28%	―
O5G	51 Neutral	€7.29B	―	-3.87%	―	-6.54%	76.78%