HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
Want to see DE:HFG full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
€4.00
▼(-12.28% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/17/26
The score is driven primarily by weakened profitability (losses in 2024–2025 and declining 2025 revenue) and elevated leverage, partially offset by improved operating cash flow and a strong 2025 free cash flow rebound. Technically, the stock’s broader downtrend (below key moving averages with negative MACD) adds downside risk, while valuation is difficult to assess given a negative P/E and no dividend data.
Positive Factors
Recurring direct-to-consumer subscription model
HelloFresh’s core subscription model creates recurring revenue and higher customer lifetime value versus pure retail. Paid weekly plans and in-flow upsells (premium recipes, proteins, sides) support predictable order frequency and AOV, underpinning durable topline visibility and marketing efficiency over months.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and recent net losses
A sustained revenue decline combined with consecutive-year net losses erodes return on invested capital and limits the company’s ability to self-fund growth or margin restoration. Weakening top-line makes unit economics and marketing ROI more critical and increases the need for structural fixes to restore profitable growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring direct-to-consumer subscription model
HelloFresh’s core subscription model creates recurring revenue and higher customer lifetime value versus pure retail. Paid weekly plans and in-flow upsells (premium recipes, proteins, sides) support predictable order frequency and AOV, underpinning durable topline visibility and marketing efficiency over months.
Read all positive factors
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€682.51M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth-11.75%
EPS Growth33.29%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.55
Shares Outstanding159,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,601
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio4.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.71Price Target Upside25.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)€6.38B
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seas...
How the Company Makes Money
HelloFresh primarily makes money by selling meal solutions directly to consumers through recurring subscription plans and non-subscription (on-demand) orders placed via its digital platforms. The core revenue stream is product revenue from meal ki...
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with notable achievements in efficiency and strategic initiatives, yet faced ongoing challenges in the Ready-to-Eat segment and overall order declines. While there are signs of recovery and positive trends in customer satisfaction and innovation, the financial performance is still impacted by past operational issues and market pressures.Positive Updates
Stable Revenue Trend
Observed a stable revenue trend in Q3 with a decline of about 9% in constant currency, driven by a double-digit decline in orders, somewhat offset by a 4% increase in Average Order Value (AOV).
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Ready-to-Eat Segment
RTE segment saw revenue decline by about 5% year-over-year due to lower order rates from customers acquired in the first half of the year.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Revenue Trend
Observed a stable revenue trend in Q3 with a decline of about 9% in constant currency, driven by a double-digit decline in orders, somewhat offset by a 4% increase in Average Order Value (AOV).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the HelloFresh Q3 2025 Results Call, Dominik Richter detailed the company's strategic focus on improving unit economics and customer experience over short-term revenue growth. The call highlighted a slight revenue decline of about 9% in constant currency, with a notable 4% increase in average order value (AOV). Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at EUR 40.3 million, maintaining a double-digit margin despite FX headwinds and a mix of factors. The company implemented 70% of its EUR 300 million efficiency program, which is expected to reach 80% by year-end, and achieved significant improvements in free cash flow, which increased by over EUR 140 million year-to-date. The call also introduced the "ReFresh" strategy, with investments in expanding menu options and enhancing product quality, which positively impacted customer satisfaction metrics, including a sharp 18-point increase in Net Promoter Score since April. Despite challenges in the ready-to-eat (RTE) segment, HelloFresh has seen improvements in leading indicators and anticipates a recovery, aiming for profitable growth in 2026.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.76B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B |
| Gross Profit | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B |
| EBITDA | 236.90M | 303.90M | 329.40M | 393.40M | 487.51M |
| Net Income | -92.60M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.18B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.40M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M |
| Total Debt | 708.50M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 672.70M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 223.90M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 298.80M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -130.50M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -430.10M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Neutral
4.56
Price Trends
4.59
Negative
5.18
Negative
6.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
61.02
Neutral
84.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.95, below the 50-day MA of 4.59, and below the 200-day MA of 6.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | €5.46B | 30.68 | 7.72% | ― | 16.78% | -14.34% | |
63 Neutral | €253.19M | 7.43 | 42.70% | ― | 1.10% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | €2.01B | 2.96 | -0.35% | ― | 0.35% | -102.58% | |
44 Neutral | €682.51M | -10.40 | -13.29% | ― | -11.75% | 33.29% | |
44 Neutral | €6.22B | -8.67 | -40.83% | ― | 14.35% | 16.07% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:HFG
HelloFresh SE
4.61
-4.78
-50.94%
DE:CEC
CECONOMY AG
4.29
1.14
36.03%
DE:ZAL
Zalando
20.92
-11.29
-35.05%
DE:ZO1
zooplus
222.00
-58.00
-20.71%
DE:DHER
Delivery Hero SE
20.83
-5.23
-20.07%
DE:WEW
Westwing Group AG
12.90
5.32
70.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.