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HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
€3.50
▼(-3.05% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is primarily held back by weakened financial performance (recent losses, slowing revenue, and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative momentum). This is partially offset by improved cash generation and a moderately positive earnings-call tone around efficiency execution and a path toward profitable growth in 2026.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and a strong free cash flow rebound provide durable internal funding to support working capital, pay down debt, and fund efficiency investments. Reliable cash conversion reduces dependence on external financing and cushions the business through seasonality and cyclical demand shifts.
Material efficiency program
Execution of a sizable EUR 300m efficiency program that is largely implemented indicates structural cost base improvements. Sustained savings can improve unit economics, raise margins, and support a path to sustained profitability, increasing resilience to customer or volume fluctuations over the medium term.
Product breadth and customer metrics
A wider menu, higher Net Promoter Score and rising average order value reflect stronger product-market fit and improved retention. These durable improvements lift lifetime value per customer, reduce acquisition pressure, and support higher recurring revenue per user versus relying solely on customer volume growth.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and profitability
Sustained revenue declines and multi-year moves into net losses weaken core earnings power and ROE, limiting reinvestment capacity. Without a durable reversal, persistent negative margins impair cash flow quality, constrain strategic flexibility, and increase sensitivity to competitive and macro dislocation.
Elevated leverage
Debt levels near equity reduce financial flexibility for a consumer-facing business subject to demand swings. Elevated leverage raises interest and refinancing risks, limits ability to fund growth or absorb setbacks, and makes margin recovery plans more sensitive to interest costs and cash flow variability.
Ready-to-eat (RTE) operational weakness and recall impact
Operational issues and product safety incidents in the RTE segment signal execution and third-party control risks that can erode retention and margins long-term. Weakness in RTE reduces product diversification benefits and increases costs for quality control, remediation, and regaining customer trust, pressuring sustainable growth.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€559.65M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth-8.97%
EPS Growth-66.04%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding159,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,601
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio4.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.96Price Target Upside65.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)€6.46B
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal boxes. It also sells meal-kits through vending machines. The company has operations in the United States, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It operates under the HelloFresh brand; and owns the Chefs Plate, EveryPlate, Factor75, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyHelloFresh primarily makes money by selling meal solutions directly to consumers through recurring subscription plans and non-subscription (on-demand) orders placed via its digital platforms. The core revenue stream is product revenue from meal kit boxes, priced per serving and per number of meals selected for a given delivery week; customers typically pay a weekly charge that reflects chosen recipes, serving counts, and any delivery and packaging fees (where applicable). A second key stream is revenue from ready-to-eat/prepared meal offerings (often positioned for convenience versus cooking), which are also sold direct-to-consumer under the company’s brand portfolio and fulfilled through its production and distribution network. Additional revenue is generated through add-ons and upsells within the ordering flow—such as premium recipes, extra proteins, sides, desserts, snacks, and beverages—which increase average order value beyond the base meal plan. The company’s earnings are influenced by customer retention and order frequency (which drive recurring revenue), acquisition efficiency (marketing spend versus customer lifetime value), and supply-chain and fulfillment execution (procurement of ingredients, portioning/production, packaging, and distribution). Partnerships or specific counterparties are not reliably detailed at the requested level in widely available summaries; null.
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with notable achievements in efficiency and strategic initiatives, yet faced ongoing challenges in the Ready-to-Eat segment and overall order declines. While there are signs of recovery and positive trends in customer satisfaction and innovation, the financial performance is still impacted by past operational issues and market pressures.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Revenue Trend
Observed a stable revenue trend in Q3 with a decline of about 9% in constant currency, driven by a double-digit decline in orders, somewhat offset by a 4% increase in Average Order Value (AOV).
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Improvements
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at EUR 40.3 million. Despite headwinds, maintained a double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin in meal kits with North America and International improving year-over-year.
Efficiency Program Progress
On track with the EUR 300 million efficiency program, with about 70% of initiatives implemented. Free cash flow before leases improved by over EUR 140 million year-to-date.
ReFresh Strategy and Product Innovation
Expanded meal kit weekly options to over 100, improving customer satisfaction and retention. Positive response to menu expansion and packaging upgrades among loyal and lapsed customers.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Free cash flow year-to-date is up 4x year-over-year, and free cash flow per share is up over 5x year-over-year due to share buyback program.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Ready-to-Eat Segment
RTE segment saw revenue decline by about 5% year-over-year due to lower order rates from customers acquired in the first half of the year.
Continued Order Decline
Group orders down by about 13% year-over-year, with meal kits improving but RTE worsening sequentially.
Challenges in Ready-to-Eat Operations
Faced temporary operational setbacks in RTE earlier in the year, impacting customer satisfaction and retention, leading to additional costs.
USDA Recall Impact
Incurred a EUR 1.7 million inventory write-off due to a Listeria issue from a third-party manufacturer.
Company Guidance
During the HelloFresh Q3 2025 Results Call, Dominik Richter detailed the company's strategic focus on improving unit economics and customer experience over short-term revenue growth. The call highlighted a slight revenue decline of about 9% in constant currency, with a notable 4% increase in average order value (AOV). Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at EUR 40.3 million, maintaining a double-digit margin despite FX headwinds and a mix of factors. The company implemented 70% of its EUR 300 million efficiency program, which is expected to reach 80% by year-end, and achieved significant improvements in free cash flow, which increased by over EUR 140 million year-to-date. The call also introduced the "ReFresh" strategy, with investments in expanding menu options and enhancing product quality, which positively impacted customer satisfaction metrics, including a sharp 18-point increase in Net Promoter Score since April. Despite challenges in the ready-to-eat (RTE) segment, HelloFresh has seen improvements in leading indicators and anticipates a recovery, aiming for profitable growth in 2026.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are pressured: revenue declined in 2025 and profitability deteriorated into losses in 2024–2025. Leverage is elevated (debt roughly in line with equity) and ROE turned negative, though total debt decreased in 2025. Cash flow is a relative positive with improved operating cash flow and a strong free cash flow rebound in 2025, but earnings-to-cash conversion has been inconsistent.Income Statement
Profitability has weakened materially versus prior years. Revenue declined in 2025 (-3.7%) after roughly flat performance in 2024, and the business moved from modest profits (2022–2023) to losses in 2024–2025 (negative net margins). Gross margin remains comparatively strong but has compressed from the 2020–2022 peak, while operating profitability has deteriorated to near-breakeven/negative EBIT in the last two years—suggesting cost pressure and/or higher fulfillment/marketing intensity.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated for a consumer/food-service model: debt is roughly on par with equity in 2024–2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.0x), up from more conservative levels in 2020–2023 (~0.46–0.70x). Equity has also stepped down from 2023 to 2025, and returns on equity turned negative in 2024–2025, reflecting the earnings losses. Offsetting this, the company still maintains a meaningful equity base and has reduced total debt in 2025 versus 2024, which is directionally supportive.48
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot. Operating cash flow stayed positive across all periods and improved in 2025 versus 2024, and free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 (223.9m) from 2024 (73.2m). However, free cash flow growth in 2025 was negative versus the prior year in percentage terms (as reported), and the conversion of accounting earnings into cash is inconsistent—most notably, 2024 and 2025 show losses despite positive free cash flow, while 2022 had negative free cash flow despite positive net income—indicating working-capital swings and/or timing effects.57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.76B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B |
| Gross Profit | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B |
| EBITDA | 236.90M | 303.90M | 329.40M | 393.40M | 487.51M |
| Net Income | -92.60M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.18B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.40M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M |
| Total Debt | 708.50M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 672.70M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 223.90M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 298.80M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -130.50M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -430.10M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
3.61
Price Trends
5.21
Negative
5.56
Negative
6.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Positive
24.57
Positive
8.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.64, below the 50-day MA of 5.21, and below the 200-day MA of 6.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.57 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | €5.51B | 30.68 | 7.72% | ― | 12.06% | 18.20% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | €304.78M | -15.05 | 3.79% | ― | -0.32% | ― | |
52 Neutral | €2.13B | 2.96 | -0.35% | ― | 2.81% | -146.04% | |
50 Neutral | €4.95B | -4.29 | -23.41% | ― | 23.23% | 76.05% | |
47 Neutral | €559.65M | -10.40 | -24.37% | ― | -8.97% | -66.04% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.