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HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
€8.50
▲(4.94% Upside)
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Management's strategy to reduce costs is intended to help fund an improvement in the core product, which in turn is expected to help the group return to growth from 2027 onwards.
Customer Base Stability
The detail around loyal customers suggests that volatility in orders and recent revenue declines have come from newer and less loyal customers, indicating a stable core customer base.
Negative Factors
Growth Uncertainty
The pronounced deceleration in revenue growth further increases the uncertainty on HFG's future and will likely trigger yet another multiple contraction from already low levels.
Revenue Decline
The negative impact on the group's top-line development hit by surprise, particularly the extent of it.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.33B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth-5.46%
EPS Growth-86.35%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength83
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding166,940,570
10 Day Avg. Volume910,991
30 Day Avg. Volume1,177,687
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€10.32Price Target Upside27.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal boxes. It also sells meal-kits through vending machines. The company has operations in the United States, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It operates under the HelloFresh brand; and owns the Chefs Plate, EveryPlate, Factor75, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyHelloFresh generates revenue primarily through the sale of meal kits to its subscribers. The company operates on a subscription model where customers choose from various meal plans and receive weekly deliveries of pre-measured ingredients and recipes. Key revenue streams include the subscription fees paid by customers, which can vary depending on the selected meal plan and the number of servings per week. Additionally, HelloFresh benefits from partnerships with food producers and retailers, which can provide promotional opportunities and enhance brand visibility. Seasonal promotions, special meal offerings, and the expansion into new markets also contribute to revenue growth, alongside targeted marketing strategies aimed at customer acquisition and retention.
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with substantial progress in efficiency and profitability metrics. However, these gains were counterbalanced by revenue declines and challenges in the RTE segment. The impact of currency fluctuations also added a layer of complexity. While the company is set on a strategic path towards future growth with major product upgrades, the current operational setbacks pose significant challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Efficiency Program Success
HelloFresh has made strong progress in its efficiency program, leading to a significant expansion of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was EUR 158 million, with a 15.8% margin for meal kits, and EBIT grew by 20% year-over-year to over EUR 100 million.
Contribution Margin Improvement
The contribution margin increased by 1.4 points to 27.3%, reaching a multiyear high, with North America seeing a 380 basis point improvement.
Share Buyback Program
The share buyback program has been upsized from EUR 75 million to EUR 175 million.
Free Cash Flow Growth
Free cash flow was up 4x in H1 2025 compared to the same period last year, with free cash flow per share increasing from EUR 0.30 to EUR 1.24.
Product Launch Initiatives
Major product upgrades for HelloFresh U.S. and Factor US have been launched, aimed at improving customer experience and paving the way for future growth.
Operational Improvements
Direct labor productivity improved in DCs and cooking operations, with a 19% year-over-year improvement in RTE and a 5% improvement in meal kits.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue reduced by 9% year-over-year to EUR 1.7 billion, with orders declining by 12% in Q2, including a 16% decline in North America.
RTE Segment Challenges
The RTE segment experienced operational setbacks, leading to a temporary disruption in customer satisfaction and growth momentum.
Impact of Currency Fluctuations
The weakening of the U.S. dollar and other currencies against the euro resulted in a negative impact of EUR 38 million on EBITDA and EUR 28 million on adjusted EBIT.
Operational Complexity
Product upgrades led to increased operational complexity, resulting in higher meal repetition, reduced menu novelty, and temporarily adverse effects on customer satisfaction.
Company Guidance
During the HelloFresh SE H1 2025 Results Call, Dominik Richter highlighted significant progress in the company's efficiency program, which led to a notable expansion of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, and free cash flow. In Q2 2025 alone, the adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 158 million, with a 15.8% margin for the meal kits product group. EBIT grew by 20% year-over-year to over EUR 100 million, and free cash flow increased fourfold in H1 2025 compared to the previous year. Despite a 9% year-over-year revenue decline to EUR 1.7 billion, the contribution margin rose by 1.4 points to 27.3%, a multiyear high. The company announced an upsize in its share buyback program to EUR 175 million, reflecting strong cash generation. HelloFresh also narrowed its top-line guidance for 2025 to a decline of 6% to 8%, driven by temporary setbacks in its RTE business. Despite currency fluctuations, adjustments in the euro-denominated EBITDA guidance maintain the previously implied margins. Looking ahead, HelloFresh is embarking on a major product reinvestment strategy, dubbed The ReFresh, aiming to enhance the customer experience and return to growth.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HelloFresh SE demonstrates strong gross profit margins and improved leverage, but faces challenges in achieving profitability and consistent revenue growth. The cash flow position is strengthening, providing some financial flexibility.Income Statement
HelloFresh SE's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.34% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 81.61%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -2.34%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.0 in the TTM period, indicating reduced leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -20.08%, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the overall asset management appears stable.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows positive trends, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 30.52% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.31, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting a reasonable conversion of earnings into cash.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.27B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B | 3.75B |
| Gross Profit | 6.08B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 339.80M | 303.90M | 339.90M | 395.60M | 506.00M | 465.90M |
| Net Income | -172.00M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M | 369.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.33B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 446.20M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M | 731.40M |
| Total Debt | 742.10M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M | 362.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B | 869.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 720.20M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M | 656.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 244.60M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M | 517.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 366.50M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M | 601.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -135.40M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M | -210.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -172.20M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M | 163.40M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.10
Price Trends
8.48
Negative
8.95
Negative
9.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
48.00
Neutral
47.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.03, below the 50-day MA of 8.48, and below the 200-day MA of 9.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.