HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
€4.00
▼(-12.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score reflects weakening revenue and loss-making profitability despite resilient operating/free cash flow and an adequate balance sheet. Technicals are a notable drag with the share price below major moving averages. The earnings call was balanced: operational improvements and cash generation are encouraging, but guidance still points to declining revenue and near-term margin trade-offs.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive free cash flow across quarters indicates the core business can generate liquidity to fund operations and investments without relying exclusively on external financing. That durability supports sustained product investment and working-capital flexibility during a multi-quarter turnaround.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue
Persistent top-line contraction and management guidance for FY constant-currency revenue decline imply that regaining growth will take multiple quarters. A shrinking revenue base reduces operational leverage and slows the pace at which efficiency gains translate into durable profit improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive free cash flow across quarters indicates the core business can generate liquidity to fund operations and investments without relying exclusively on external financing. That durability supports sustained product investment and working-capital flexibility during a multi-quarter turnaround.
Read all positive factors
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€632.01M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth-13.48%
EPS Growth85.30%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.17
Shares Outstanding159,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,601
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio4.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.52Price Target Upside21.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)€6.33B
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seas...
How the Company Makes Money
HelloFresh primarily makes money by selling meal solutions directly to consumers through recurring subscription plans and non-subscription (on-demand) orders placed via its digital platforms. The core revenue stream is product revenue from meal ki...
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: the company is undertaking a deliberate transformation with clear early signs of operational and product-led improvement (AOV growth, better retention, fulfillment cost reduction, RTE loss reduction and positive free cash flow). However, meaningful near-term headwinds remain — revenue is still declining, contribution margin is under pressure due to front-loaded product investments and a EUR 25 million weather hit, and the active customer base and new-customer conversions need time to recover. Guidance was reconfirmed but delivery is H2-weighted, reflecting the trade-off between near-term results and long-term value creation.Positive Updates
Revenue in line with expectations
Group net revenue of EUR 1.68 billion in Q1, a 7.7% decline in constant currency but reported as in line with company expectations for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Ongoing top-line decline
Group revenue declined 7.7% CC in Q1; both meal kits (-8.5% CC) and RTE (-6.9% CC) remain lower year-over-year as new customer volume has not yet recovered sufficiently to offset earlier losses.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue in line with expectations
Group net revenue of EUR 1.68 billion in Q1, a 7.7% decline in constant currency but reported as in line with company expectations for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HelloFresh reconfirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of a constant‑currency revenue decline of -3% to -6% and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 375–425m, with delivery second‑half weighted. In Q1 the group reported revenue of ~EUR 1.68bn (‑7.7% cc), adjusted EBITDA around EUR 23.6m (a EUR 25m weather hit; underlying run‑rate ~EUR 49m), contribution margin 25.6% (‑1.4pp y/y), and positive free cash flow of EUR 49m (fourth consecutive quarter); Q1 CapEx was EUR 44m (vs EUR 34m a year ago). By product, Meal Kits generated ~EUR 1.2bn (‑8.5% cc) with adjusted EBITDA of EUR 105m (9% margin; weather‑adjusted ~10.3% vs 11.4% LY), while Ready‑to‑Eat was EUR 466m (‑6.9% cc) with an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 27.6m (improved EUR 18m or 40% y/y); group AOV rose EUR 4.2 cc (meal kits +4.5% cc, RTE +1.4% cc). Management said fulfillment costs improved 0.8pp y/y, marketing was reduced by EUR 62m to 21.8% of revenue (‑30bps y/y; ~EUR 200m reduction in 2025 noted), product investments will weigh ~150bps of gross margin in 2026, Q2 topline is expected roughly in line with Q1 (and Q2 EBITDA ~EUR 30–40m below Q2 2025), and they expect clearer evidence of a return to growth and stronger P&L flow‑through in H2.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.51B | 6.76B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B |
| Gross Profit | 3.17B | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B |
| EBITDA | 297.30M | 236.90M | 303.90M | 329.40M | 393.40M | 487.51M |
| Net Income | -24.30M | -92.60M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.20B | 2.18B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 245.50M | 218.40M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M |
| Total Debt | 178.70M | 708.50M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.58B | 1.51B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 620.50M | 672.70M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 198.90M | 223.90M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 294.00M | 298.80M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -138.10M | -130.50M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -423.60M | -430.10M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
4.56
Price Trends
4.22
Positive
4.83
Negative
5.89
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
49.28
Neutral
63.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.33, above the 50-day MA of 4.22, and below the 200-day MA of 5.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | €280.90M | 591.63 | 36.00% | ― | 4.11% | ― | |
57 Neutral | €5.41B | -15.14 | 4.22% | ― | 20.20% | -56.58% | |
52 Neutral | €632.01M | -2.54 | -3.67% | ― | -13.48% | 85.30% | |
49 Neutral | €10.20B | -8.67 | -40.83% | ― | 14.35% | 16.07% | |
44 Neutral | €1.88B | -5.55 | -9.61% | ― | 1.69% | -24.49% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:HFG
HelloFresh SE
4.28
-6.60
-60.66%
DE:CEC
CECONOMY AG
3.88
1.15
42.12%
DE:ZAL
Zalando
20.84
-10.18
-32.82%
DE:ZO1
zooplus
230.00
-38.00
-14.18%
DE:DHER
Delivery Hero SE
33.59
8.75
35.23%
DE:WEW
Westwing Group AG
14.70
6.74
84.67%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.