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HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
€8.50
▲(6.65%Upside)
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
Management's strategy to reduce costs is intended to help fund an improvement in the core product, which in turn is expected to help the group return to growth from 2027 onwards.
Customer Base Stability
The detail around loyal customers suggests that volatility in orders and recent revenue declines have come from newer and less loyal customers, indicating a stable core customer base.
Negative Factors
Growth Uncertainty
The pronounced deceleration in revenue growth further increases the uncertainty on HFG's future and will likely trigger yet another multiple contraction from already low levels.
Revenue Decline
The negative impact on the group's top-line development hit by surprise, particularly the extent of it.
Revenue Outlook
HelloFresh expects revenue to be materially lower than previously anticipated, with organic revenue expected to decline by between 3% and 8% this year.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)767.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth-1.77%
EPS Growth-361.24%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength56
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.77
Shares Outstanding173,190,570
10 Day Avg. Volume826,390
30 Day Avg. Volume767,962
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)2.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio9.18
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€12.77Price Target Upside60.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHelloFresh SE (HFG) is a global meal-kit delivery service company, headquartered in Berlin, Germany. It operates in the food and meal kit delivery sector, offering a variety of meal plans and recipes that cater to diverse dietary preferences and needs. The company's core products include fresh ingredients and recipes that are delivered to customers, enabling them to cook meals at home. With operations in multiple countries, HelloFresh aims to provide convenient, healthy, and sustainable meal solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyHelloFresh SE makes money primarily through the sale of meal kits to consumers. Customers subscribe to weekly meal plans, choosing from a range of recipes and meal options that are delivered directly to their homes. The revenue model is subscription-based, with customers paying a recurring fee for the meal kits they receive. Key revenue streams include direct consumer sales through their website and mobile applications, as well as partnerships with grocery retailers and other distribution channels. HelloFresh also benefits from economies of scale, optimizing their supply chain and logistics to enhance profitability. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with suppliers and brands to enhance their product offerings and customer experience.
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -5.68%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted successful scaling of the RTE market and strong AEBITDA margins, along with a successful marketing strategy and share buyback program. However, there are significant challenges, including a decline in meal kit revenue, expected revenue growth challenges, and asset impairment charges. The sentiment is mixed with both positive achievements and notable challenges.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Establishment in Ready-to-Eat (RTE) Market
The company has scaled its Ready-to-Eat meals product group by about 20x over the last 4 years, achieving AEBITDA profitability and improving unit economics.
Efficiency Program and Profitability
The efficiency program has led to a strong margin trajectory in the second half of 2024, with meal kits achieving a 9.8% AEBITDA margin and RTE achieving a 1.6% AEBITDA margin for the full year.
Strong Q4 AEBITDA Margins
Q4 results showed near-record AEBITDA margins, with meal kits at over 14% and RTE over 5%, marking a year-on-year increase of 3 points in meal kits and 10 points in RTE.
Marketing Strategy Success
The implementation of a new marketing strategy led to a decrease in marketing expenses by 310 basis points in Q4, focusing on acquiring fewer but higher-value customers.
Completion of Share Buyback Program
The company completed a EUR 150 million share buyback program and launched a new EUR 75 million buyback program, reducing the fully diluted share count over a 5-year timeframe.
Negative Updates
Decline in Meal Kit Revenue
Meal kits saw a negative revenue growth of 9% in 2024, with a more pronounced decline in North America (10%) compared to international (5%).
Revenue Growth Challenges
Revenue growth for 2025 is expected to decrease by 3% to 8% as the efficiency program prioritizes profitability over volume growth.
Asset Impairment Charges
The company took noncash one-off asset impairment charges of EUR 182 million in 2024, with EUR 133 million in Q4, related to site closures.
Limited RTE Growth in 2025
RTE growth is expected to be low to mid-teens in 2025 as the company focuses on building a sustainable growth formula.
Consumer Softening in the U.S.
There is softening in the U.S. consumer market, affecting the company's outlook, particularly in meal kits.
Company Guidance
During the call, HelloFresh outlined its strategic priorities and financial performance metrics for the upcoming year and beyond. The company emphasized its focus on achieving profitability over volume growth, with a strategy to improve margins and free cash flow. For 2025, HelloFresh targets an adjusted EBIT of EUR 200 million to EUR 250 million, a significant increase from the previous year, and aims to boost AEBITDA to EUR 450 million to EUR 500 million. The efficiency program is expected to expand contribution margins by 100 basis points and reduce marketing expenses by 50 to 100 basis points. The company achieved a 9.8% full-year AEBITDA margin for meal kits in 2024, nearing its 10% goal, while the Ready-to-Eat (RTE) segment saw a 1.6% margin. The Q4 results were strong, with meal kits showing a 14% AEBITDA margin and RTE at over 5%. Revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be between negative 3% to negative 8% in constant currency, reflecting a strategic focus on higher-value customers. Additionally, HelloFresh plans to maintain a tight CapEx discipline, targeting EUR 166 million for 2025, and has launched a EUR 75 million share buyback program.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HelloFresh SE shows mixed financial performance. Revenue growth is stagnant with a slight decline in gross profit margin. The company reported a net loss in 2024, reflecting profitability challenges. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage but declining equity ratios. Cash flow remains positive, providing some stability despite negative net income.Income Statement
HelloFresh SE has shown fluctuating revenue with a slight decline in gross profit margin over recent years. The company experienced a revenue growth of only 0.85% from 2023 to 2024. Net income has turned negative in 2024, reflecting a net loss margin of -1.78%. This is a significant decline from a positive net income in previous years, indicating profitability challenges. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 3.97% in 2024, the negative EBIT margin of -2.31% highlights operational inefficiencies.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of HelloFresh SE shows a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.03, suggesting moderate leverage. There is a decline in stockholders' equity, reflecting in a lower equity ratio of 33.86% in 2024. This indicates a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks amidst profitability challenges. The Return on Equity has turned negative, at -15.29% in 2024, highlighting declining returns for shareholders.65
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a decrease in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, yet the company maintains positive free cash flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is challenging to interpret due to negative net income, but the company has managed to generate cash flow through operations, which is critical for sustaining business activities in the short term.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.52B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B | 3.75B |
| Gross Profit | 6.14B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 198.28M | 303.90M | 339.90M | 395.60M | 506.00M | 465.90M |
| Net Income | -176.20M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M | 369.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.63B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 496.10M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M | 731.40M |
| Total Debt | 914.30M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M | 362.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.74B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B | 869.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 891.70M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M | 656.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 174.00M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M | 517.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 333.30M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M | 601.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -155.80M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M | -210.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.30M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M | 163.40M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
7.97
Price Trends
9.42
Negative
9.63
Negative
10.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.52
Positive
28.71
Positive
13.99
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.93, below the 50-day MA of 9.42, and below the 200-day MA of 10.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.71 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
DE:HFG
HelloFresh SE
7.97
3.16
65.70%
DE:ZAL
Zalando
27.11
4.26
18.64%
DE:DHER
Delivery Hero SE
22.42
-0.05
-0.22%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.