HelloFresh SE (HFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €919.55M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: -8.97%
• EPS Growth: -66.04%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 21,783
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 159,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,732,601
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,336,828
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €9.37
• Price Target Upside: 59.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: €5.50 ▼(-6.46% Downside)

HelloFresh SE's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenue and profitability, high leverage, and strained cash flow. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call provided some positive insights into strategic initiatives and customer satisfaction improvements, but these are overshadowed by ongoing operational and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Efficiency Program Progress

The successful implementation of the efficiency program indicates a focus on cost management and operational improvements, which can enhance profitability and financial stability over the long term.

ReFresh Strategy and Product Innovation

The ReFresh strategy and product innovation enhance customer satisfaction and retention, which are crucial for long-term growth and competitive positioning in the meal kit market.

Free Cash Flow Improvement

Significant improvement in free cash flow indicates better cash management and financial health, providing more flexibility for strategic investments and debt reduction.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline in Ready-to-Eat Segment

The decline in the Ready-to-Eat segment revenue reflects challenges in maintaining customer engagement and market share, which could hinder overall growth prospects.

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in periods of economic downturn or operational challenges, impacting long-term sustainability.

Continued Order Decline

A continued decline in orders suggests weakening demand, which could pressure revenue and profitability, challenging the company's ability to achieve sustainable growth.

HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal boxes. It also sells meal-kits through vending machines. The company has operations in the United States, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It operates under the HelloFresh brand; and owns the Chefs Plate, EveryPlate, Factor75, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

HelloFresh generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based meal kit delivery service. Customers pay a weekly or monthly fee to receive meal kits that are tailored to their preferences. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of meal kits, add-on products, and the provision of flexible subscription plans. Additionally, HelloFresh benefits from partnerships with various suppliers and producers, ensuring a steady supply of fresh ingredients at competitive prices. The company's growth is further supported by its focus on customer retention, upselling additional items, and expanding its market presence in different regions.

HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HelloFresh SE shows strong gross profit margins and improved leverage, but faces challenges in profitability and revenue growth. Cash flow is strengthening, providing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

HelloFresh SE's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.34% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 81.61%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -2.34%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.0 in the TTM period, indicating reduced leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -20.08%, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the overall asset management appears stable.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows positive trends, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 30.52% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.31, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting a reasonable conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.02B	7.66B	7.60B	7.61B	5.99B	3.75B
Gross Profit	5.92B	4.80B	4.92B	4.99B	3.95B	2.47B
EBITDA	339.10M	303.90M	329.40M	393.40M	487.51M	452.80M
Net Income	-187.90M	-136.40M	19.40M	127.00M	242.81M	369.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.20B	2.63B	2.58B	2.54B	2.21B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	321.30M	496.10M	442.70M	511.90M	835.50M	731.40M
Total Debt	178.50M	914.30M	714.20M	666.20M	461.70M	303.10M
Total Liabilities	1.56B	1.74B	1.56B	1.58B	1.31B	869.60M
Stockholders Equity	638.00M	891.70M	1.02B	961.70M	895.70M	656.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	243.80M	73.20M	78.00M	-104.10M	206.80M	517.00M
Operating Cash Flow	350.00M	239.30M	383.80M	313.40M	458.60M	601.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-137.10M	-162.60M	-339.60M	-443.80M	-321.60M	-210.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-238.40M	-26.90M	-110.80M	-204.30M	-62.70M	163.40M

HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 5.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.77, below the 50-day MA of 6.33, and below the 200-day MA of 8.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DE:HFG.

HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ZAL	63 Neutral	€6.59B	27.68	9.04%	―	12.06%	18.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DHER	50 Neutral	€6.46B	-11.27	-32.53%	―	23.23%	76.05%
HFG	49 Neutral	€919.55M	-5.02	-24.37%	―	-8.97%	-66.04%

HelloFresh SE Corporate Events

HelloFresh Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiment and Strategic Focus

The recent earnings call for HelloFresh presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both achievements and challenges. While the company has made strides in efficiency and strategic initiatives, it continues to face hurdles in the Ready-to-Eat segment and a decline in overall orders. Despite these challenges, there are promising signs of recovery, with positive trends in customer satisfaction and innovation, although financial performance remains impacted by past operational issues and market pressures.

HelloFresh Earnings Call: Efficiency Gains Amid Revenue Challenges

The latest earnings call from HelloFresh painted a mixed picture, reflecting both substantial progress in efficiency and profitability metrics and challenges in revenue and the Ready-to-Eat (RTE) segment. While the company has made strides in its strategic path towards future growth with significant product upgrades, current operational setbacks pose notable challenges. Additionally, currency fluctuations have added complexity to the financial landscape.