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HelloFresh (DE:HFG)
:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
€10.00
▲(14.81% Upside)
Positive Factors
Cost Savings
Management expects EUR300m of gross cost savings by 2026 from sources including increased labour productivity and lower marketing expenses.
Financial Performance
HelloFresh generated impressive profitability in Q4 2024, despite a further slowdown in organic revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Market Uncertainty
The pronounced deceleration in revenue growth further increases the uncertainty on HFG's future and will likely trigger yet another multiple contraction from already low levels.
Revenue Decline
HelloFresh expects revenue to be materially lower than previously anticipated, with organic revenue expected to decline by between 3% and 8% this year.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)645.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth-1.77%
EPS Growth-361.24%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength71
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding166,940,570
10 Day Avg. Volume470,632
30 Day Avg. Volume645,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€11.81Price Target Upside35.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal boxes. It also sells meal-kits through vending machines. The company has operations in the United States, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It operates under the HelloFresh brand; and owns the Chefs Plate, EveryPlate, Factor75, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyHelloFresh generates revenue primarily through the sale of meal kits to its subscribers. The company operates on a subscription model where customers choose from various meal plans and receive weekly deliveries of pre-measured ingredients and recipes. Key revenue streams include the subscription fees paid by customers, which can vary depending on the selected meal plan and the number of servings per week. Additionally, HelloFresh benefits from partnerships with food producers and retailers, which can provide promotional opportunities and enhance brand visibility. Seasonal promotions, special meal offerings, and the expansion into new markets also contribute to revenue growth, alongside targeted marketing strategies aimed at customer acquisition and retention.
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: 3.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted successful scaling of the RTE market and strong AEBITDA margins, along with a successful marketing strategy and share buyback program. However, there are significant challenges, including a decline in meal kit revenue, expected revenue growth challenges, and asset impairment charges. The sentiment is mixed with both positive achievements and notable challenges.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Establishment in Ready-to-Eat (RTE) Market
The company has scaled its Ready-to-Eat meals product group by about 20x over the last 4 years, achieving AEBITDA profitability and improving unit economics.
Efficiency Program and Profitability
The efficiency program has led to a strong margin trajectory in the second half of 2024, with meal kits achieving a 9.8% AEBITDA margin and RTE achieving a 1.6% AEBITDA margin for the full year.
Strong Q4 AEBITDA Margins
Q4 results showed near-record AEBITDA margins, with meal kits at over 14% and RTE over 5%, marking a year-on-year increase of 3 points in meal kits and 10 points in RTE.
Marketing Strategy Success
The implementation of a new marketing strategy led to a decrease in marketing expenses by 310 basis points in Q4, focusing on acquiring fewer but higher-value customers.
Completion of Share Buyback Program
The company completed a EUR 150 million share buyback program and launched a new EUR 75 million buyback program, reducing the fully diluted share count over a 5-year timeframe.
Negative Updates
Decline in Meal Kit Revenue
Meal kits saw a negative revenue growth of 9% in 2024, with a more pronounced decline in North America (10%) compared to international (5%).
Revenue Growth Challenges
Revenue growth for 2025 is expected to decrease by 3% to 8% as the efficiency program prioritizes profitability over volume growth.
Asset Impairment Charges
The company took noncash one-off asset impairment charges of EUR 182 million in 2024, with EUR 133 million in Q4, related to site closures.
Limited RTE Growth in 2025
RTE growth is expected to be low to mid-teens in 2025 as the company focuses on building a sustainable growth formula.
Consumer Softening in the U.S.
There is softening in the U.S. consumer market, affecting the company's outlook, particularly in meal kits.
Company Guidance
During the call, HelloFresh outlined its strategic priorities and financial performance metrics for the upcoming year and beyond. The company emphasized its focus on achieving profitability over volume growth, with a strategy to improve margins and free cash flow. For 2025, HelloFresh targets an adjusted EBIT of EUR 200 million to EUR 250 million, a significant increase from the previous year, and aims to boost AEBITDA to EUR 450 million to EUR 500 million. The efficiency program is expected to expand contribution margins by 100 basis points and reduce marketing expenses by 50 to 100 basis points. The company achieved a 9.8% full-year AEBITDA margin for meal kits in 2024, nearing its 10% goal, while the Ready-to-Eat (RTE) segment saw a 1.6% margin. The Q4 results were strong, with meal kits showing a 14% AEBITDA margin and RTE at over 5%. Revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be between negative 3% to negative 8% in constant currency, reflecting a strategic focus on higher-value customers. Additionally, HelloFresh plans to maintain a tight CapEx discipline, targeting EUR 166 million for 2025, and has launched a EUR 75 million share buyback program.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HelloFresh SE exhibits a mixed financial performance. While revenue levels are sustained, profitability has declined, as shown by negative net income and EBIT. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage but declining equity ratios, posing financial risks. Positive cash flow provides some stability, but operational inefficiencies need addressing to improve financial health.Income Statement
HelloFresh SE has shown fluctuating revenue with a slight decline in gross profit margin over recent years. The company experienced a revenue growth of only 0.85% from 2023 to 2024. Net income has turned negative in 2024, reflecting a net loss margin of -1.78%. This is a significant decline from a positive net income in previous years, indicating profitability challenges. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 3.97% in 2024, the negative EBIT margin of -2.31% highlights operational inefficiencies.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of HelloFresh SE shows a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.03, suggesting moderate leverage. There is a decline in stockholders' equity, reflecting in a lower equity ratio of 33.86% in 2024. This indicates a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks amidst profitability challenges. The Return on Equity has turned negative, at -15.29% in 2024, highlighting declining returns for shareholders.65
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a decrease in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, yet the company maintains positive free cash flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is challenging to interpret due to negative net income, but the company has managed to generate cash flow through operations, which is critical for sustaining business activities in the short term.75
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B | 3.75B |
| Gross Profit | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 303.90M | 339.90M | 395.60M | 506.00M | 465.90M |
| Net Income | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M | 369.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M | 731.40M |
| Total Debt | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M | 362.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B | 869.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M | 656.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M | 517.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M | 601.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M | -210.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M | 163.40M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
8.71
Price Trends
8.79
Negative
8.96
Negative
10.18
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
43.22
Neutral
16.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.06, below the 50-day MA of 8.79, and below the 200-day MA of 10.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
DE:HFG
HelloFresh SE
8.71
1.80
26.05%
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0.98
4.34%
DE:DHER
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23.41
1.86
8.63%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.