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HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
€6.50
▲(14.44% Upside)
HelloFresh SE's overall score reflects strong strategic initiatives and cash flow improvements, but is weighed down by technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. The company's focus on efficiency and innovation is promising, yet profitability and order declines remain significant challenges.
Positive Factors
Efficiency Program
The efficiency program aims to reduce costs and improve operational performance, enhancing long-term profitability and competitiveness.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Significant free cash flow improvement strengthens financial flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and debt reduction.
Product Innovation
Product innovation through menu expansion enhances customer satisfaction and retention, supporting long-term growth and market position.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Revenue decline indicates challenges in maintaining growth momentum, potentially impacting long-term financial performance.
Order Decline
A decline in orders suggests weakening demand, which could affect future revenue streams and necessitate strategic adjustments.
Ready-to-Eat Segment Challenges
Challenges in the Ready-to-Eat segment highlight operational inefficiencies and customer retention issues, impacting overall growth prospects.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth-8.97%
EPS Growth-66.04%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding159,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,601
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio26.68
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€10.29Price Target Upside81.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHelloFresh SE (HFG) is a leading global meal kit delivery service company headquartered in Berlin, Germany. Founded in 2011, the company operates in the food delivery sector and specializes in providing customers with pre-portioned ingredients and recipes for home-cooked meals. HelloFresh offers a variety of meal plans catering to different dietary preferences and lifestyles, including family-friendly options, vegetarian dishes, and quick-prep meals. The company's services are designed to simplify the cooking process, making it accessible and convenient for home cooks of all levels.
How the Company Makes MoneyHelloFresh generates revenue primarily through the sale of meal kits to its subscribers. The company operates on a subscription model where customers choose from various meal plans and receive weekly deliveries of pre-measured ingredients and recipes. Key revenue streams include the subscription fees paid by customers, which can vary depending on the selected meal plan and the number of servings per week. Additionally, HelloFresh benefits from partnerships with food producers and retailers, which can provide promotional opportunities and enhance brand visibility. Seasonal promotions, special meal offerings, and the expansion into new markets also contribute to revenue growth, alongside targeted marketing strategies aimed at customer acquisition and retention.
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with notable achievements in efficiency and strategic initiatives, yet faced ongoing challenges in the Ready-to-Eat segment and overall order declines. While there are signs of recovery and positive trends in customer satisfaction and innovation, the financial performance is still impacted by past operational issues and market pressures.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Revenue Trend
Observed a stable revenue trend in Q3 with a decline of about 9% in constant currency, driven by a double-digit decline in orders, somewhat offset by a 4% increase in Average Order Value (AOV).
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Improvements
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at EUR 40.3 million. Despite headwinds, maintained a double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin in meal kits with North America and International improving year-over-year.
Efficiency Program Progress
On track with the EUR 300 million efficiency program, with about 70% of initiatives implemented. Free cash flow before leases improved by over EUR 140 million year-to-date.
ReFresh Strategy and Product Innovation
Expanded meal kit weekly options to over 100, improving customer satisfaction and retention. Positive response to menu expansion and packaging upgrades among loyal and lapsed customers.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Free cash flow year-to-date is up 4x year-over-year, and free cash flow per share is up over 5x year-over-year due to share buyback program.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Ready-to-Eat Segment
RTE segment saw revenue decline by about 5% year-over-year due to lower order rates from customers acquired in the first half of the year.
Continued Order Decline
Group orders down by about 13% year-over-year, with meal kits improving but RTE worsening sequentially.
Challenges in Ready-to-Eat Operations
Faced temporary operational setbacks in RTE earlier in the year, impacting customer satisfaction and retention, leading to additional costs.
USDA Recall Impact
Incurred a EUR 1.7 million inventory write-off due to a Listeria issue from a third-party manufacturer.
Company Guidance
During the HelloFresh Q3 2025 Results Call, Dominik Richter detailed the company's strategic focus on improving unit economics and customer experience over short-term revenue growth. The call highlighted a slight revenue decline of about 9% in constant currency, with a notable 4% increase in average order value (AOV). Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at EUR 40.3 million, maintaining a double-digit margin despite FX headwinds and a mix of factors. The company implemented 70% of its EUR 300 million efficiency program, which is expected to reach 80% by year-end, and achieved significant improvements in free cash flow, which increased by over EUR 140 million year-to-date. The call also introduced the "ReFresh" strategy, with investments in expanding menu options and enhancing product quality, which positively impacted customer satisfaction metrics, including a sharp 18-point increase in Net Promoter Score since April. Despite challenges in the ready-to-eat (RTE) segment, HelloFresh has seen improvements in leading indicators and anticipates a recovery, aiming for profitable growth in 2026.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HelloFresh SE shows strong gross profit margins and improved leverage, but faces challenges in profitability and revenue growth. The cash flow position is strengthening, providing some financial flexibility.Income Statement
HelloFresh SE's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.34% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 81.61%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -2.34%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.0 in the TTM period, indicating reduced leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -20.08%, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the overall asset management appears stable.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows positive trends, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 30.52% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.31, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting a reasonable conversion of earnings into cash.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.27B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B | 3.75B |
| Gross Profit | 6.08B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 339.80M | 303.90M | 339.90M | 395.60M | 506.00M | 465.90M |
| Net Income | -172.00M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M | 369.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.33B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 446.20M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M | 731.40M |
| Total Debt | 742.10M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M | 362.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B | 869.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 720.20M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M | 656.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 244.60M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M | 517.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 366.50M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M | 601.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -135.40M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M | -210.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -172.20M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M | 163.40M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
5.68
Price Trends
7.39
Negative
7.94
Negative
8.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Positive
25.84
Positive
12.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.12, below the 50-day MA of 7.39, and below the 200-day MA of 8.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.84 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
DE:HFG
HelloFresh SE
5.68
-5.11
-47.35%
DE:ZAL
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22.24
-4.96
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DE:DHER
Delivery Hero SE
17.93
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-51.74%
HelloFresh SE Corporate Events
HelloFresh Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiment and Strategic Focus
Oct 31, 2025
The recent earnings call for HelloFresh presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both achievements and challenges. While the company has made strides in efficiency and strategic initiatives, it continues to face hurdles in the Ready-to-Eat segment and a decline in overall orders. Despite these challenges, there are promising signs of recovery, with positive trends in customer satisfaction and innovation, although financial performance remains impacted by past operational issues and market pressures.
HelloFresh Earnings Call: Efficiency Gains Amid Revenue Challenges
Sep 1, 2025
The latest earnings call from HelloFresh painted a mixed picture, reflecting both substantial progress in efficiency and profitability metrics and challenges in revenue and the Ready-to-Eat (RTE) segment. While the company has made strides in its strategic path towards future growth with significant product upgrades, current operational setbacks pose notable challenges. Additionally, currency fluctuations have added complexity to the financial landscape.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.