Heidelberger Druckmaschinen (HDD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €439.46M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 700.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 5.97%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 9,398
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 304,479,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 723,390
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 700,714
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €2.00
• Price Target Upside: 38.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: €1.50 ▲(4.17% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial health (turnaround to profitability and better leverage) but held back by thin margins and uneven cash-flow conversion/consistency. Technically, the stock is in a clear downtrend and very oversold, which weighs on the near-term setup. Valuation is a relative positive due to the low P/E.

Positive Factors

Profitability Turnaround

Heidelberger achieved a clear earnings turnaround with TTM ROE around 11.9% and materially lower leverage (D/E ~0.23). This stronger operating profitability and modest leverage enhance financial resilience, lower refinancing risk and provide durable capacity to reinvest or absorb cyclical dips if margins hold.

Recurring revenue mix

A diversified revenue base—equipment sales plus consumables and long-term service/maintenance contracts—creates repeatable after-sales income. That recurring component supports customer retention, steadier cash flow and higher lifetime value per customer, providing a durable buffer versus pure capital goods cyclicality.

Recent revenue rebound

The pronounced TTM revenue increase signals renewed demand for presses and solutions, which can expand installed base and serviceable revenue. Sustained higher volumes improve capacity utilization and provide scope to scale service, spare-parts and software attach rates, supporting longer-term margin recovery if demand remains stable.

Negative Factors

Thin margins

Operating in a low-margin environment leaves limited cushion against input-cost inflation, pricing pressure or demand volatility. Small adverse moves in raw material, logistics or pricing can erode profits quickly, making sustained margin improvement critical for durable cash generation and debt service capacity.

Inconsistent cash conversion

Earnings have not consistently converted to spendable cash—FCF is down materially and only ~41% of net income—reflecting working-capital swings or capex needs. This inconsistency can constrain funding for capex, dividends or debt paydown and elevates refinancing and operational risk over the coming months.

Historic leverage swings

The company’s balance sheet has shown large swings in leverage historically, implying prior stress and reliance on favorable earnings cycles. Recurrence of weak demand or cash conversion could quickly reverse recent improvements, so the stability of leverage depends on maintaining profitability and cash generation.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and deals in printing press and other print media industry products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia/Pacific, Eastern Europe, North America, and South America. The company operates through Print Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Technology Solutions segments. It offers printing machines, including digital, offset, narrow web, screen, and inline-flexo printing, as well as remarketed equipment; and finishing equipment comprising cutting, die-cutting and embossing, folding, inspection, folding carton gluing, hot foil stamping, and shingled folding. The company also provides technical services, such as installation and relocation, maintenance and cleaning, remote support, repair, and overhauling services, as well as service parts; and performance services consisting of performance evaluation, color management, training, upgrades and retrofits, monitoring, output optimization, print shop optimization, and investment planning. In addition, it offers financial services; and consumables, such as plates, films, chemicals, proofing, glues, digital and analog engraving, blankets, inks, dampening rollers, coatings, varnishes, blankets, rollers, pressroom chemicals, cutting knives, banderoles, ink duct foils, wash-up cloths and spray powders, dispersion glues, binding glues, stitching wires and sealing threads, and folding carton gluing supplies. Further, the company provides software solutions. The company was formerly known as Schnellpressenfabrik AG Heidelberg and changed its name to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft in 1967. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1850 and is based in Heidelberg, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of printing presses, digital printing systems, and consumables such as inks and plates. The company also earns money from service contracts, maintenance agreements, and the sale of spare parts which create recurring revenue. Significant partnerships with suppliers and technology firms enhance its product offerings and market reach. Additionally, HDD benefits from its global distribution network and after-sales services, which contribute to customer retention and sustained income over time.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals show a turnaround to positive profitability and improved leverage, supported by healthy TTM ROE (~11.9%) and manageable debt-to-equity (~0.23). However, margins are thin (~2.7% net; ~5.1% EBIT) and cash-flow quality is mixed, with free cash flow down (~-28%) and only ~41% of net income, reflecting inconsistent cash conversion and historical volatility.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show modest profitability with ~2.7% net margin and ~5.1% EBIT margin, indicating the business is operating in a thin-margin environment but is currently solidly profitable. Revenue growth is strong in TTM (about +98% vs the prior period shown), but the annual history is uneven: revenue declined in 2024 and 2025 (annual) after a strong 2023 rebound, highlighting volatility. Profitability has improved materially from 2021–2022 losses to positive net income in recent periods, but margins remain relatively low for a machinery company, leaving less cushion if demand softens or costs rise.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable in the latest periods, with TTM debt-to-equity around 0.23 and equity of ~€563m, a notable improvement versus 2021–2022 when leverage was very high (debt-to-equity >2x) and returns were negative. Return on equity in TTM is healthy (~11.9%), suggesting improved earnings power on the current capital base. The main weakness is the sharp historical swing in leverage and returns, which signals past balance-sheet stress and raises the importance of maintaining the current profitability cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in TTM with ~€144m operating cash flow and ~€59m free cash flow, but free cash flow is down sharply (about -28% growth). Cash conversion also looks mixed: free cash flow is only ~41% of net income in TTM, implying earnings are not fully translating into spendable cash (potentially due to working capital or capital spending needs). The annual track record shows volatility, including negative free cash flow in 2023 and 2021, so while the latest period is constructive, consistency is still a key watch item.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2021	Mar 2020	Mar 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.37B	2.28B	2.47B	2.18B	1.91B	2.35B
Gross Profit	944.00M	1.13B	1.17B	1.04B	988.25M	1.09B
EBITDA	197.00M	141.00M	202.00M	146.30M	96.72M	-182.87M
Net Income	64.00M	5.00M	91.00M	33.00M	-42.89M	-343.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.15B	2.17B	2.22B	2.18B	2.17B	2.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.00M	116.00M	116.00M	140.24M	197.88M	414.69M
Total Debt	127.00M	76.00M	96.00M	128.29M	263.52M	464.36M
Total Liabilities	1.59B	1.63B	1.71B	1.94B	2.06B	2.40B
Stockholders Equity	563.00M	545.00M	513.00M	242.01M	109.04M	202.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.00M	25.00M	-45.00M	-4.20M	-59.75M	-149.48M
Operating Cash Flow	144.00M	113.00M	33.00M	51.22M	55.00K	-53.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.00M	-62.00M	39.00M	36.33M	39.77M	278.94M
Financing Cash Flow	-66.00M	-31.00M	-60.00M	-152.36M	-208.02M	-65.51M

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HDD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.65, below the 50-day MA of 1.85, and below the 200-day MA of 1.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HDD.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRN	75 Outperform	€4.21B	14.48	14.99%	1.95%	8.15%	16.17%
WSU	75 Outperform	€669.12M	19.23	47.28%	5.13%	7.24%	22.00%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HDD	59 Neutral	€439.46M	6.81	8.07%	―	5.97%	―
DUE	54 Neutral	€1.71B	-53.47	-7.86%	3.12%	-18.21%	-137.62%
SKB	52 Neutral	€150.38M	-9.76	-4.67%	―	4.81%	75.36%