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Global Fashion Group (DE:GFG)
XETRA:GFG
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Global Fashion Group
(XETRA:GFG)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
€0.30
▲(21.20% Upside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, declining revenue, negative operating cash flow) and a broader bearish technical trend versus longer-term averages. The main offset is improving profitability signals from the latest earnings call (positive adjusted EBITDA margin, better gross margin, solid liquidity), but customer declines and regional/FX headwinds keep overall risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Gross margin improvement
Rising gross margin to ~46% meaningfully improves unit economics across orders, reducing reliance on promotional pricing to hit contribution targets. This structural margin expansion enhances the company's ability to convert revenue into profit, cushions FX or input cost swings, and supports durable progress toward sustained profitability.
Adjusted EBITDA turned positive
Achieving a positive adjusted EBITDA margin on an LTM basis demonstrates operational leverage from cost discipline and efficiency initiatives. Sustained positive adjusted EBITDA reduces dependence on external financing, allows reinvestment in growth or fulfilment, and is a durable indicator of improving core profitability.
Solid liquidity runway
Pro forma cash and net cash provide a meaningful runway to fund operations, working capital swings, and targeted turnaround efforts without imminent refinancing. This balance sheet buffer gives management time to execute restructuring or regional investments and materially lowers short-term solvency risk.
Negative Factors
Declining active customers
A shrinking active customer base reduces long-term revenue potential and indicates weakening customer retention or acquisition effectiveness. Restoring or growing the buyer base typically requires sustained marketing investment and product/experience improvements, pressuring margins and making durable top-line recovery harder.
Persistent losses and cash-flow weakness
Continued negative net margins and operating cash flow point to structural cash consumption despite margin gains. Ongoing burn limits ability to self-fund growth or SEA turnarounds, raises reliance on liquidity reserves, and elevates refinancing risk if profitability momentum stalls over the medium term.
Structural weakness in Southeast Asia
Prolonged double-digit declines in SEA signal persistent competitive or market-structure issues in a key region. Extended underperformance reduces group NMV growth potential, forces allocation of management attention and capital to turnarounds, and diminishes geographic diversification benefits over the medium term.
Global Fashion Group (GFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€69.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-11.28%
EPS Growth54.27%
CountryDE
Employees3,558
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding228,642,910
10 Day Avg. Volume28,339
30 Day Avg. Volume24,014
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-1.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Global Fashion Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGlobal Fashion Group (GFG) is a leading online fashion and lifestyle destination in the global e-commerce market, primarily focusing on emerging markets. The company operates various online platforms that feature a wide range of products, including clothing, footwear, accessories, and beauty items from both local and international brands. GFG's portfolio includes several regional fashion e-commerce platforms, enabling it to cater to diverse customer preferences and trends across different markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Fashion Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of fashion and lifestyle products on its e-commerce platforms. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales of merchandise, marketplace commissions from third-party sellers, and advertising revenue from brand partnerships. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded apparel and accessories, while the marketplace component allows GFG to expand its product offerings without holding inventory. Significant partnerships with both established and emerging fashion brands enhance its product range and attract a wider customer base, contributing to increased sales and customer loyalty.
Global Fashion Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with significant improvements in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, positive trends in ANZ and LatAm regions, and a solid liquidity position. However, challenges such as a decline in active customers, FX headwinds, and ongoing difficulties in Southeast Asia were highlighted. The narrowed NMV expectation indicates a more stable outlook, but revenue and working capital issues remain concerns.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-over-year to reach 46.1%.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Growth
Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 4.4 percentage points year-over-year to a positive 1.6%, marking the first positive adjusted EBITDA on a last 12-month basis for GFG's current footprint.
Positive Trends in ANZ and LatAm
ANZ NMV grew by 4.9% and LatAm by 3.8% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. LatAm also returned to active customer growth.
Improvement in Free Cash Flow
Normalized free cash flow improved to EUR 11 million year-on-year, benefiting from a EUR 7 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA and EUR 6 million CapEx reduction.
Liquidity Position
Solid liquidity position with EUR 136 million pro forma cash and EUR 85 million pro forma net cash at the end of Q3.
Narrowed NMV Expectation
NMV expectation narrowed to negative 2% to positive 2% on a constant currency basis, indicating a more stable outlook.
Negative Updates
Decline in Active Customers
Active customers declined 2.3% year-over-year to 7.4 million, despite a slower rate of decline.
FX Headwinds Impact
Significant impact of the Australian dollar remaining weak, down 8% year-on-year against the euro, affecting NMV and average order value earned in Australia.
Challenges in Southeast Asia (SEA)
SEA remains challenged with a focus on stabilizing and turning around the business, with a decline in double-digit top-line performance.
Revenue Decrease
Revenue decreased by 1.5% on a constant currency basis year-on-year.
Working Capital Outflow
EUR 6 million working capital outflow, elevated versus last year due to payables timing differences.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2025 results call, Global Fashion Group (GFG) provided guidance for the full fiscal year, highlighting several key metrics. They reported a 0.4% year-over-year decrease in Net Merchandise Value (NMV) on a constant currency basis, while gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 46.1%. Adjusted EBITDA margin saw a 4.4 percentage point improvement, reaching a positive 1.6%, marking the first positive adjusted EBITDA on a last 12-month basis. Active customers declined by 2.3% to 7.4 million, although order frequency increased by 0.4% to 2.3 times. The company's revenue decreased by 1.5% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, yet adjusted EBITDA improved by EUR 20 million compared to the previous year, resulting in a loss of EUR 7 million. Regionally, ANZ and LatAm showed positive NMV growth, while SEA faced challenges. GFG's liquidity position remained solid with EUR 136 million in pro forma cash. Looking ahead, GFG narrowed their NMV growth expectation to between negative 2% and positive 2% and anticipates achieving breakeven or single-digit million euro adjusted EBITDA for the full year.Global Fashion Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Persistent losses and weakening top-line trends (TTM net margin -11.17%, revenue down 1.93%) outweigh a stable gross margin (~45.94%). Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.56) but returns are poor (ROE -42.24%). Cash flow shows some improvement in free cash flow growth, yet operating cash flow remains negative, pressuring liquidity quality.Income Statement
Global Fashion Group's income statement reveals challenges in profitability and growth. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a negative net profit margin of -11.17%, indicating ongoing losses. Revenue has declined by 1.93% compared to the previous period, reflecting a downward trend. Gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 45.94%, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 in the TTM period. However, the return on equity is negative at -42.24%, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on its equity. The equity ratio stands at 31.98%, indicating a reasonable level of equity financing relative to total assets.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows improvement in free cash flow growth at 20.09% in the TTM period, but operating cash flow remains negative, impacting liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.12, suggesting that free cash flow exceeds net income, which is a positive sign. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 715.30M | 743.50M | 838.00M | 1.07B | 1.04B | 1.36B |
| Gross Profit | 328.60M | 333.80M | 352.90M | 452.70M | 448.30M | 586.20M |
| EBITDA | -22.01M | -18.60M | -86.20M | -68.20M | -38.00M | -27.50M |
| Net Income | -79.90M | -82.50M | -178.40M | -196.30M | -124.80M | -107.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 514.60M | 637.50M | 862.00M | 1.17B | 1.54B | 1.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 159.70M | 210.60M | 387.00M | 550.00M | 634.50M | 366.10M |
| Total Debt | 92.50M | 103.00M | 239.40M | 343.00M | 497.20M | 123.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 353.40M | 426.30M | 566.30M | 695.10M | 971.40M | 553.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 164.60M | 213.70M | 272.30M | 475.50M | 569.70M | 615.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -28.40M | -44.60M | -76.40M | 25.00M | -107.80M | -19.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -25.40M | -15.00M | -47.50M | 92.60M | -51.20M | 30.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.20M | 130.10M | 48.90M | -38.00M | -293.10M | -33.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -118.90M | -130.60M | -99.50M | -121.90M | 370.10M | 106.50M |
Global Fashion Group Technical Analysis
Positive
0.25
Price Trends
0.28
Positive
0.29
Positive
0.31
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
54.35
Neutral
16.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:GFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.29, below the 50-day MA of 0.28, and below the 200-day MA of 0.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:GFG.
Global Fashion Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | €6.32B | 26.19 | 9.04% | ― | 12.06% | 18.20% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | €292.21M | 117.43 | 3.63% | ― | -0.32% | ― | |
56 Neutral | €59.86M | -14.72 | -6.65% | ― | 1.39% | -1422.54% | |
48 Neutral | €69.68M | -0.83 | ― | ― | -11.28% | 54.27% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:GFG
Global Fashion Group
0.31
0.05
22.00%
DE:ECK
Ludwig Beck am Rathauseck Textilhaus Feldmeier
16.20
2.80
20.90%
DE:ZAL
Zalando
24.34
-11.45
-31.99%
DE:WEW
Westwing Group AG
14.35
6.81
90.32%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.