Exasol AG (EXL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €55.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 176
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 26,882,757
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,688
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,145
• PEG Ratio: -2.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 39.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €40.70M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: €2.50 ▼(-6.02% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is primarily supported by improving 2024 fundamentals (return to profit and positive free cash flow) and a low-leverage balance sheet. Offsetting this, technicals are weak with the stock trading below major moving averages, and valuation (P/E ~22 with no dividend) looks only middling given still-fragile profitability.

Positive Factors

Return to profitability & positive FCF

The shift to positive net income and free cash flow in 2024 indicates the business can generate real cash from operations. Sustained cash generation supports reinvestment in product, reduces need for external financing, and provides a foundation for durable growth if maintained across future periods.

Low-leverage balance sheet

Essentially zero debt materially reduces financial risk and interest burden, giving management flexibility to fund R&D, sales expansion or weather downturns without strained covenants. A low-leverage profile is a durable defensive advantage for a software infrastructure vendor.

Recurring software and services revenue model

A revenue mix anchored in subscriptions, maintenance and services creates predictable recurring cash flows and customer stickiness. This business model supports long-term margin improvement as scale increases and helps sustain customer relationships through integrations and ongoing services.

Negative Factors

Fragile underlying profitability

Despite a small net profit, negative EBIT and very thin net margins leave earnings vulnerable to small revenue shortfalls or higher costs. Fragile profitability constrains the company’s ability to scale R&D and sales sustainably and raises execution risk over the medium term.

Weakened capital base from prior losses

Historic losses that eroded equity reduce the financial cushion for operational volatility and slow the pace at which the firm can invest. A pressured capital base increases the likelihood of future external financing needs, which could dilute shareholders or raise costs of capital.

Small scale and modest growth

Modest organic growth and a small headcount limit go-to-market reach and platform development versus well-capitalized cloud database competitors. Scale disadvantages can slow partner adoption, increase per-customer acquisition costs, and make long-term share gains harder to sustain.

Exasol AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exasol AG develops database for analytics and data warehousing in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Great Britain, North America, and internationally. It provides solutions to retail and e-commerce, finance analytics, and healthcare sectors. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Nuremberg, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Exasol AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a meaningful 2024 inflection: revenue grew (~7.7%), net income turned slightly positive, and operating/free cash flow became positive. The balance sheet is low-risk with essentially no debt. However, profitability remains fragile (EBIT still negative and net margin ~0.6%), and the prior multi-year loss/cash-burn period makes consistency unproven.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a notable turnaround: the company moved from large losses in 2021–2023 to a small profit in 2024, alongside improved profitability (gross margin rose to ~22% and EBITDA margin to ~5.9%). Revenue growth was positive and steadier in 2024 (~7.7%) after modest growth in 2023. Offsetting this, underlying profitability is still fragile—EBIT remains negative in 2024 and net margin is very thin (~0.6%), indicating the earnings recovery is early-stage and could be volatile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed, with essentially no debt in recent years (debt-to-equity at 0.0 in 2022–2024), which reduces financial risk. However, equity has declined sharply versus 2020–2021 levels, and returns on equity were deeply negative from 2021–2023 before turning modestly positive in 2024 (~5%), signaling that the capital base has been pressured by prior losses and the recovery is still developing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow has improved materially: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive in 2024 (about €1.7m and €1.6m, respectively), with strong free-cash-flow growth versus 2023. Cash generation is close to reported earnings (free cash flow is ~0.90x net income in 2024), suggesting reasonable earnings quality in the latest year. The key weakness is the track record—cash flow was meaningfully negative in 2020–2023, so consistency through a full cycle remains unproven.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	41.66M	39.63M	35.14M	33.19M	27.46M	23.60M
Gross Profit	11.28M	8.61M	2.88M	-1.54M	-15.61M	-19.16M
EBITDA	3.49M	2.33M	-5.56M	-12.17M	-25.63M	-29.96M
Net Income	1.87M	229.34K	-8.22M	-15.01M	-29.30M	-34.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.03M	19.20M	20.00M	23.20M	41.50M	82.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.16M	14.95M	13.34M	12.73M	27.21M	69.48M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	29.30K	71.14K
Total Liabilities	19.99M	14.63M	15.60M	17.73M	22.47M	33.81M
Stockholders Equity	6.05M	4.57M	4.40M	5.47M	19.03M	48.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.28M	1.56M	-6.28M	-14.64M	-40.48M	-15.75M
Operating Cash Flow	2.88M	1.74M	-6.18M	-14.36M	-36.03M	-12.95M
Investing Cash Flow	2.40M	1.19M	-1.10M	-281.00K	31.07M	-39.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.00K	-4.00K	6.90M	139.00K	-1.82M	85.95M

Exasol AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OBS	75 Outperform	€51.61M	14.74	10.88%	1.77%	2.84%	21.48%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
EXL	56 Neutral	€55.20M	18.99	36.86%	―	―	―