Exasol AG (EXL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €72.29M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 39.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: DE
• Employees: 176
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 26,882,757
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,688
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,145
• PEG Ratio: -2.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 39.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €6.30
• Price Target Upside: 136.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: €3.00 ▲(12.78% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profit and cash flow turning positive with low leverage), but it is held back by a still-weak longer-term technical trend and a high P/E multiple with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Return to profitability and positive free cash flow

Exasol's 2024 shift to a small net profit and positive operating and free cash flow signals the company can generate internal funding for operations and investment. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external capital and supports incremental product and go-to-market spending.

Very low leverage / conservative balance sheet

Near-zero debt materially lowers financial risk and gives Exasol flexibility to invest in R&D, sales, or M&A without heavy interest burdens. A conservative capital structure improves resilience through downturns and supports multi-quarter execution on strategic initiatives.

Improving revenue and margins

Steady revenue growth coupled with rising gross and EBITDA margins indicate improving unit economics and operational discipline. If sustained, this trend supports scalable profitability as recurring-license and support revenues expand and services mix becomes more efficient.

Negative Factors

Core profitability remains fragile (EBIT negative)

EBIT negative despite a small net profit implies core operations haven't fully covered operating leverage; a 0.6% net margin offers little buffer versus revenue pressure. This fragility means adverse customer or competitive moves could quickly reverse progress.

Prior multi-year losses and uneven cash history

A recent cash-flow turnaround is encouraging, but a multi-year preceding cash-burn record raises doubts about sustainability across cycles. Long-term investors must consider whether current improvements persist under slower growth or higher investment demands.

Eroded equity and modest returns on capital

Sharp equity erosion reduces the capital buffer against shocks and limits organic funding capacity. A modest ROE (~5%) after several years of negative returns indicates capital efficiency remains weak and the company must improve returns to rebuild investor capital over time.

Exasol AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exasol AG develops database for analytics and data warehousing in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Great Britain, North America, and internationally. It provides solutions to retail and e-commerce, finance analytics, and healthcare sectors. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Nuremberg, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Exasol AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials improved in 2024 with a return to a small profit and positive operating/free cash flow, supported by near-zero leverage. However, profitability remains fragile (EBIT still negative and net margin ~0.6%) and the prior multi-year loss/cash-burn track record makes durability unproven.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a notable turnaround: the company moved from large losses in 2021–2023 to a small profit in 2024, alongside improved profitability (gross margin rose to ~22% and EBITDA margin to ~5.9%). Revenue growth was positive and steadier in 2024 (~7.7%) after modest growth in 2023. Offsetting this, underlying profitability is still fragile—EBIT remains negative in 2024 and net margin is very thin (~0.6%), indicating the earnings recovery is early-stage and could be volatile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed, with essentially no debt in recent years (debt-to-equity at 0.0 in 2022–2024), which reduces financial risk. However, equity has declined sharply versus 2020–2021 levels, and returns on equity were deeply negative from 2021–2023 before turning modestly positive in 2024 (~5%), signaling that the capital base has been pressured by prior losses and the recovery is still developing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow has improved materially: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive in 2024 (about €1.7m and €1.6m, respectively), with strong free-cash-flow growth versus 2023. Cash generation is close to reported earnings (free cash flow is ~0.90x net income in 2024), suggesting reasonable earnings quality in the latest year. The key weakness is the track record—cash flow was meaningfully negative in 2020–2023, so consistency through a full cycle remains unproven.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	41.66M	39.63M	35.14M	33.19M	27.46M	23.60M
Gross Profit	11.28M	8.61M	2.88M	-1.54M	-15.61M	-19.16M
EBITDA	3.49M	2.33M	-5.56M	-12.17M	-25.63M	-29.96M
Net Income	1.87M	229.34K	-8.22M	-15.01M	-29.30M	-34.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.03M	19.20M	20.00M	23.20M	41.50M	82.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.16M	14.95M	13.34M	12.73M	27.21M	69.48M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	29.30K	71.14K
Total Liabilities	19.99M	14.63M	15.60M	17.73M	22.47M	33.81M
Stockholders Equity	6.05M	4.57M	4.40M	5.47M	19.03M	48.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.28M	1.56M	-6.28M	-14.64M	-40.48M	-15.75M
Operating Cash Flow	2.88M	1.74M	-6.18M	-14.36M	-36.03M	-12.95M
Investing Cash Flow	2.40M	1.19M	-1.10M	-281.00K	31.07M	-39.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.00K	-4.00K	6.90M	139.00K	-1.82M	85.95M

Exasol AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OBS	75 Outperform	€57.29M	16.50	10.88%	1.77%	2.84%	21.48%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
EXL	55 Neutral	€72.29M	39.17	36.86%	―	―	―