Copa Holdings (CPA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.48B
• Dividend Yield: 5.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 475.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 1.36%
• EPS Growth: 6.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,909
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 4.18
• Shares Outstanding: 30,200,428
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 638,984
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 475,390
• PEG Ratio: 0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.40
• 1Y Price Target: $168.25
• Price Target Upside: 54.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 17.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.07B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $126.00 ▲(15.62% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (high margins, solid liquidity, and favorable 2026 margin guidance), reinforced by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some fundamental risks around moderating revenue growth and uneven free-cash-flow conversion.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained industry-leading margins give Copa structural resilience. High operating and net margins provide recurring cash generation to fund fleet investment, cover cyclical downturns, and sustain shareholder returns, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Strong Liquidity & Low Adjusted Leverage

Robust liquidity and low adjusted leverage materially improve financial flexibility. Large cash reserves and unencumbered airframes lower refinancing and operational risk, enabling measured fleet growth, dividend/buyback programs and buffering currency or demand shocks common in the region.

Hub Model & Fleet Modernization

A dense Hub of the Americas plus MAX fleet additions create structural unit-cost advantages and network economies. Modern, higher‑utilization aircraft and route densification support durable load factors and operational efficiency, underpinning longer‑term margin sustainability.

Negative Factors

Weakening Unit Revenues (RASM)

Declining or flat RASM amid planned double-digit capacity growth risks eroding margins if demand or yields soften. Structural pressure on unit revenue can offset cost efficiencies, making margin targets reliant on sustained demand and execution of densification and distribution savings.

Higher Absolute Debt Load

While leverage is industry‑reasonable, higher absolute debt increases exposure to interest‑rate moves and cyclical revenue swings. In a capital‑intensive airline model, elevated debt constrains optionality for opportunistic investment or aggressive buybacks if macro or regional volatility intensifies.

Modest and Uneven Free Cash Flow Conversion

Relatively low FCF conversion limits the firm's ability to fully self‑fund growth and shareholder returns without tapping liquidity or debt. Persistent working‑capital volatility and higher reinvestment needs can pressure cash available for dividends, buybacks, or unexpected operational shocks.

Copa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services. The company offers approximately 204 daily scheduled flights to 69 destinations in 29 countries in North, Central, and South America, as well as the Caribbean from its Panama City hub. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 91 aircraft comprising 77 Boeing 737-Next Generation aircraft and 14 Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft. Copa Holdings, S.A. was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama.

How the Company Makes Money

Copa Holdings primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related services through its airline subsidiaries. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue, generated from ticket sales across its route network; this includes fares sold directly and via third-party channels, and commonly includes associated passenger-related fees and charges (e.g., for itinerary changes or other optional services) as part of the overall passenger business. The company also generates revenue from cargo and mail transportation by carrying freight and mail on its flights. In addition, Copa earns ancillary and other operating revenues tied to its airline operations (such as services associated with travel and loyalty-related activities), though the specific breakdown of these sub-items is not provided here. Key factors influencing earnings include passenger demand and yields (pricing), route network performance centered on its Panama hub, capacity and load factors, competitive dynamics in Latin American aviation, and operating costs—especially fuel and labor—as well as foreign exchange movements given multi-currency revenues and costs. If information on specific named partnerships, detailed loyalty-program monetization terms, or customer-level revenue splits is required, it is null.

Copa Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability with high margins (2025 net margin ~18.6%) and solid operating cash flow (~$1.12B). Offsetting factors include moderating revenue growth, higher absolute debt (~$2.56B; debt-to-equity ~0.92), and weaker/uneven free-cash-flow conversion (FCF declined in 2025 and was modest vs. earnings).

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and improving post-2020: 2025 revenue rose to ~$3.62B (up ~2.4% YoY) with solid margins (gross ~31.7%, EBIT ~22.6%, net ~18.6%) and net income of ~$672M. Results show a clear multi-year rebound from 2020’s steep losses, though top-line growth has moderated recently (flat in 2024 and low-single-digit in 2025), which caps upside if demand or pricing softens.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is healthier than earlier years with equity expanding to ~$2.78B in 2025 (from ~$1.30B in 2021) and leverage improving versus 2021–2022, but debt has climbed to ~$2.56B in 2025. Debt sits just under equity (debt-to-equity ~0.92 in 2025), which is reasonable for the industry but still leaves sensitivity to rate/credit conditions and cyclical earnings.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid at the operating line (operating cash flow ~ $1.12B in 2025), supporting the business through cycles. However, free cash flow is relatively modest versus earnings (about 27% of net income in 2025) and declined in 2025 (free cash flow down vs. 2024), indicating higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital volatility typical of airlines.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.62B	3.45B	3.46B	2.97B	1.51B
Gross Profit	1.15B	1.10B	1.16B	800.27M	363.82M
EBITDA	1.24B	1.12B	1.08B	741.68M	370.51M
Net Income	671.65M	608.11M	514.10M	348.05M	43.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.58B	5.74B	5.20B	4.69B	4.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.34B	1.20B	915.18M	934.75M	1.02B
Total Debt	2.56B	2.00B	1.75B	1.68B	1.60B
Total Liabilities	3.81B	3.37B	3.07B	3.20B	2.95B
Stockholders Equity	2.78B	2.37B	2.12B	1.49B	1.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	308.05M	340.51M	214.91M	126.31M	23.55M
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	996.85M	1.04B	758.54M	507.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.32B	-343.14M	-543.00M	-552.15M	-459.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-36.06M	-219.65M	-394.03M	-273.69M	88.54M

Copa Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 108.98
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 108.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 125.88, below the 50-day MA of 133.12, and below the 200-day MA of 118.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.58 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CPA.

Copa Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPA	74 Outperform	$4.48B	7.41	25.62%	5.28%	1.36%	6.84%
SKYW	74 Outperform	$3.55B	11.02	16.35%	―	19.27%	78.26%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALK	50 Neutral	$4.23B	69.18	2.47%	―	31.50%	-49.15%
ALGT	48 Neutral	$1.42B	-34.43	-4.22%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
JBLU	46 Neutral	$1.49B	-2.79	-26.05%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	45 Neutral	$730.16M	-7.87	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Copa Holdings Corporate Events

Copa Holdings Files 2025 Form 20-F with U.S. SEC

On February 26, 2026, Copa Holdings announced that it had filed its Form 20-F annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing makes the company’s latest audited financial statements and accompanying disclosures available to investors through its website, with hard copies offered to shareholders on request, reinforcing transparency and regulatory compliance for its U.S.-listed shares.

The report’s availability provides analysts and investors with detailed insight into Copa’s 2025 performance, capital structure and risk profile, which can inform valuation and governance assessments for this key Latin American airline. The move underscores Copa’s ongoing adherence to U.S. reporting standards, a factor that supports its credibility in global capital markets and offers stakeholders a standardized basis for comparing the carrier with international peers.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPA) stock is a Buy with a $168.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Copa Holdings stock, see the CPA Stock Forecast page.

Copa Holdings Posts Record 2025 Profit, Lifts Dividend and Targets Double-Digit Capacity Growth for 2026

On February 11, 2026, Copa Holdings reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing another year of strong profitability and operational execution, with 2025 net profit reaching US$671.6 million and earnings per share up 11.9%. The carrier delivered an operating margin of 22.6% and net margin of 18.6% for the year, expanded capacity by 7.8%, trimmed unit costs, and closed 4Q25 with US$1.6 billion in liquidity and low leverage, while growing its Boeing 737 MAX 8 fleet to support continued network expansion.

Fourth-quarter 2025 profit rose to US$172.6 million, or US$4.18 per share, as a near-10% capacity increase and high load factors offset slightly softer unit revenue and higher fuel and maintenance costs. Subsequent to year-end, the board approved a 2026 quarterly dividend of US$1.71 per share and the airline secured its eleventh Cirium award as Latin America’s most on-time carrier for 2025, while management guided for 2026 capacity growth of 11–13% and operating margins of 22–24%, underscoring confidence in sustained demand and its cost-advantaged hub model.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPA) stock is a Hold with a $151.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Copa Holdings stock, see the CPA Stock Forecast page.

Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit January Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor

On February 9, 2026, Copa Holdings reported preliminary traffic figures for January 2026 showing solid year-on-year growth in its airline operations. The company’s capacity, measured in available seat miles, rose 11.9% versus January 2025, while revenue passenger miles climbed 13.3%, pushing its system load factor up 1.1 percentage points to a robust 87.5%, signaling strong demand and improved utilization that support its competitive position in Latin American aviation.

The stronger growth in traffic than in capacity indicates that Copa is filling a higher share of its expanded network, which may underpin revenue performance if yields hold. The improved load factor also suggests efficient deployment of its fleet and sustained demand across its North, Central and South American and Caribbean routes, developments likely to be closely watched by investors tracking regional air travel recovery and profitability trends.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPA) stock is a Buy with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Copa Holdings stock, see the CPA Stock Forecast page.

Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor in December 2025

On January 13, 2026, Copa Holdings reported its preliminary operating performance for December 2025, showing solid year-on-year growth in traffic and capacity. Available seat miles rose 10.0% and revenue passenger miles increased 10.9% versus December 2024, pushing the system load factor up 0.7 percentage points to 86.0%. The stronger demand relative to capacity in the month underscores sustained traffic momentum for the carrier in its core Latin American markets, supporting its operational scale-up and potentially reinforcing its competitive position heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPA) stock is a Buy with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Copa Holdings stock, see the CPA Stock Forecast page.

Copa Holdings Sets February Dates for Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Call

On January 8, 2026, Panama-based Copa Holdings announced the schedule for releasing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, underscoring the company’s ongoing transparency with investors and the market. The airline plans to publish its fourth-quarter earnings after the U.S. market close on February 11, 2026, followed by an earnings conference call and webcast on February 12, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time, with a replay to be made available online, providing analysts and shareholders structured opportunities to assess the carrier’s recent performance and outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPA) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Copa Holdings stock, see the CPA Stock Forecast page.

Copa Holdings Reports Strong Traffic Growth for November 2025

In November 2025, Copa Holdings reported a 10.0% increase in available seat miles (ASMs) and a 10.2% rise in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) compared to November 2024. This growth resulted in a system load factor of 86.2%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a robust performance in passenger traffic and capacity utilization.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPA) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Copa Holdings stock, see the CPA Stock Forecast page.