Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 393.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 26.34%
• EPS Growth: -32.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 2.04
• Shares Outstanding: 31,753,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 390,082
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 393,760
• PEG Ratio: -3.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.24
• 1Y Price Target: $57.00
• Price Target Upside: 42.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $810.33M

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $48.00 ▲(20.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by improving revenue scale and strong cash generation, supported by a constructive earnings update (reaffirmed guidance and strong 2025 performance). These positives are tempered by balance-sheet risk from leverage, a neutral-to-soft technical picture, and a relatively high P/E with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth and Scale

Sustained, broad-based revenue growth (24% YoY in 2025) reflects portfolio diversification across ADHD and pain medicines. Durable scale supports reinvestment, commercial leverage, and resilience vs single-product risk, improving the company's ability to fund R&D and marketing over the medium term.

Strong Cash Generation & Liquidity

Robust operating cash flow and a sizable cash balance materially improve financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. Combined with a new $980M syndicated facility and reduced net leverage, this cash generation supports continued commercialization, potential buybacks, and strategic M&A or licensing opportunities.

Jornay PM Market Momentum

Rapid uptake of Jornay PM, growing prescriber base and real‑world evidence underpin sustainable market penetration. Strong commercial execution (expanded sales force, digital reach) suggests Jornay can remain a durable growth engine and partially diversify revenue away from legacy pain brands.

Negative Factors

Balance‑Sheet Leverage Risk

High historical leverage increases financial vulnerability if revenue or margins weaken. Even with recent refinancing, meaningful debt levels reduce capital flexibility, elevate interest and covenant risk, and could constrain R&D or marketing spend if cash flow coverage deteriorates or market conditions worsen.

Elevated Gross‑to‑Net and Seasonality

Persistent mid‑60% gross‑to‑net on Jornay meaningfully reduces realized revenue per prescription and compresses margins. Combined with predictable deductible resets causing Q1 seasonality, this structural headwind limits revenue visibility and makes sustained margin improvement harder without pricing or access changes.

Rising Commercial Cost Base

Large increases in operating expenses from commercialization raise the company's fixed cost base. If growth slows or gross‑to‑net pressure persists, elevated marketing and sales spend could compress GAAP profits and free cash flow, reducing optionality for capital allocation and raising execution risk.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines for pain management. Its portfolio includes Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release formulations of tapentadol; and Xtampza ER for the management of pain severe enough to require daily, around-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment. The company was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Collegium Pharmaceutical generates revenue primarily through the sales of its prescription medications, particularly Xtampza ER, which is marketed to healthcare providers and pharmacies. The company benefits from a robust revenue model that includes direct sales to pharmacies, as well as potential partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for distribution and marketing support. Key revenue streams also include potential royalties and milestone payments from collaborations with other firms in the pharmaceutical industry. Additionally, Collegium has focused on expanding its product line and developing new formulations, which can further enhance its market presence and revenue potential.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue growth and solid operating profitability with improving free cash flow. However, the balance sheet score is weak due to meaningful leverage, which raises risk if margins or demand soften; cash flow coverage of obligations is also noted as below 1 in the provided data.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly versus the prior year and profitability remains solid, supported by healthy gross profit and operating margins. However, net profit margin has compressed versus 2024, and results have shown some historical volatility (including a loss in 2022), which keeps the score below top-tier.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is meaningfully leveraged, with debt running several times equity in both TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and recent annual periods. While returns on equity are strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the high leverage level increases financial risk and reduces flexibility if earnings soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are strong and have improved versus 2024, with free cash flow tracking closely to reported earnings. The main watch-out is that cash flow coverage of obligations remains below 1 in the provided data, and there is a history of volatility (notably negative free cash flow in 2020).

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	780.57M	631.45M	566.77M	463.93M	276.87M
Gross Profit	463.26M	377.34M	326.17M	209.49M	150.62M
EBITDA	401.00M	341.70M	308.33M	173.31M	86.56M
Net Income	62.87M	69.19M	48.16M	-25.00M	71.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.66B	1.66B	1.14B	1.17B	692.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	406.53M	162.76M	310.55M	173.69M	186.43M
Total Debt	940.56M	859.30M	674.28M	709.17M	258.75M
Total Liabilities	1.36B	1.43B	947.88M	979.29M	489.15M
Stockholders Equity	301.68M	228.84M	195.43M	194.84M	202.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	327.58M	203.33M	274.29M	122.61M	101.61M
Operating Cash Flow	329.32M	204.98M	274.75M	124.23M	103.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.53M	-287.76M	-70.81M	-573.69M	-1.94M
Financing Cash Flow	-110.25M	-60.60M	-140.18M	436.72M	-89.30M

Collegium Pharmaceutical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COLL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.21, below the 50-day MA of 46.35, and above the 200-day MA of 38.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.27 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COLL.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PCRX	67 Neutral	$894.83M	140.67	0.96%	―	3.14%	―
ANIP	67 Neutral	$1.71B	22.70	15.11%	―	48.87%	―
COLL	62 Neutral	$1.27B	23.29	23.70%	―	26.34%	-32.79%
SUPN	60 Neutral	$3.14B	-79.78	-3.68%	―	4.54%	-130.59%
AMPH	60 Neutral	$899.69M	9.75	12.90%	―	-0.03%	-27.66%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Collegium Pharmaceutical Corporate Events

Collegium Reports Record 2025 Results and Reaffirms Outlook

On February 26, 2026, Collegium reported fourth-quarter 2025 net product revenues of $205.4 million, up 13% year over year, and record full-year 2025 revenues of $780.6 million, up 24%, driven by strong growth in ADHD drug Jornay PM and its pain portfolio. Jornay PM net revenue rose 57% in the quarter and 48% for 2025 to $148.9 million, prescriptions and prescribers hit all-time highs, and overall adjusted EBITDA reached record levels, supported by robust operating cash flow of $123 million in the quarter and cash and securities of $386.7 million at year-end.

The company’s pain franchise generated $159.6 million in quarterly revenue and a record $631.7 million for 2025, with Belbuca and the Nucynta franchise offsetting softer Xtampza ER sales, while a new authorized generic partnership with Hikma is expected to provide profit-sharing from Nucynta generics. Collegium also refinanced its debt with a $980 million syndicated credit facility, repurchased $25 million of shares and reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, signaling confidence in continued growth, balance-sheet strength and long-term value creation for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLL) stock is a Buy with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, see the COLL Stock Forecast page.

Collegium Issues 2026 Guidance Emphasizing Jornay PM Growth

On January 8, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical issued 2026 financial guidance, projecting net product revenue between $805 million and $825 million, including $190 million to $200 million from ADHD drug Jornay PM, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $455 million to $475 million, signaling continued reliance on Jornay PM as its primary growth driver. Management highlighted that 2025 delivered record growth and reiterated that they are on track to meet the increased 2025 guidance provided in November—$775 million to $785 million in net revenue and $460 million to $470 million in adjusted EBITDA—while recent moves such as refinancing via a $980 million syndicated credit facility and an authorized generic partnership with Hikma for Nucynta and Nucynta ER are expected to strengthen the balance sheet, lower interest costs, and create new revenue streams, albeit amid ongoing regulatory, competitive, and market-access risks outlined by the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLL) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, see the COLL Stock Forecast page.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Closes New $980 Million Credit Facility

On December 30, 2025, Collegium Pharmaceutical announced the closing of its inaugural $980 million syndicated credit facility, a five-year financing maturing in 2030 that includes a $580 million initial term loan, a $300 million delayed draw term loan and a $100 million revolving credit facility. The company used the initial term loan to fully repay approximately $581 million of principal outstanding under its prior $646 million term loan from funds managed by Pharmakon Advisors and expects the new SOFR-based facility, priced at a spread tied to its first lien net leverage ratio, to significantly lower its interest costs and generate meaningful annualized savings. With the delayed draw term loan and revolver undrawn at closing and earmarked for general corporate purposes and potential business development, the transaction strengthens Collegium’s capital structure, enhances financial flexibility and supports its strategy to drive long-term value through portfolio expansion and diversification.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLL) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, see the COLL Stock Forecast page.