Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $871.55M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.54
• Revenue Growth: 0.21%
• EPS Growth: -430.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,620
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -2.63
• Shares Outstanding: 86,207,115
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,461,981
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,387,110
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.26
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -80.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $20.20
• Price Target Upside: 124.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Calumet Specialty Products is currently facing substantial financial challenges, evident in its poor financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While recent strategic moves and corporate events provide some positive outlook, the company's high leverage, negative equity, and lack of profitability weigh heavily on its overall stock score.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

Cash flow benefits from roughly $80M in annual debt service cost savings.

Debt Management

The asset sale of the industrial portion of its Royal Purple® business for $110M will help with lowering leverage.

Negative Factors

Cost Competitiveness

Calumet Specialty Products has higher production costs for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel compared to its competitors.

Earnings Risk

The current stock price better reflects the downside earnings risk as well as weaker organic FCF generation ability.

Interest Coverage

EBITDA will fall short of covering interest expenses in 1H 2025 as was the case for 2H.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory uncertainty is a primary concern affecting the company's outlook.

Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel. This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Calumet Specialty Products generates revenue primarily from the sale of its specialty hydrocarbon products. The company's key revenue streams include the production and distribution of finished lubricants, solvents, and waxes, which are sold to a broad customer base comprising industrial, automotive, and consumer markets. Calumet's revenue model is supported by its extensive manufacturing capabilities and refining expertise, allowing it to produce customized solutions tailored to specific customer needs. In addition, strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements with key customers and suppliers play a significant role in ensuring stable demand and supply chain efficiency, contributing positively to the company's earnings.

Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Calumet Specialty Products is facing significant financial challenges across all aspects of its financial statements. The company struggles with declining revenues, profitability issues, high leverage, negative equity, and deteriorating cash flow, indicating a need for operational and financial restructuring.

Income Statement

The company has experienced inconsistent revenue trends, with a decline from 2022 to 2023 and a slight increase in 2024. The gross profit margin has significantly reduced over the years, and net profit margin is negative, indicating profitability issues. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased sharply, and the company reported a net loss in 2024, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

Calumet Specialty Products displays a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability and leverage risk. The equity ratio is concerning as liabilities exceed assets, and the return on equity (ROE) is not meaningful due to negative equity. These factors suggest potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

The company struggles with negative free cash flow, and free cash flow has shown volatility over the years. Operating cash flow is negative in 2024, reflecting operational challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues despite reported losses. These metrics highlight liquidity concerns.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.19B	4.18B	4.69B	3.15B	2.27B
	Gross Profit
230.80M	451.70M	350.80M	142.90M	210.10M
	EBIT
8.10M	267.20M	133.40M	-81.90M	-68.60M
	EBITDA
164.50M	418.20M	127.40M	15.60M	98.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-222.00M	48.10M	-171.80M	-260.10M	-149.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
38.10M	7.90M	35.20M	38.10M	109.40M
	Total Assets
2.76B	2.75B	2.74B	2.13B	1.81B
	Total Debt
276.50M	2.19B	1.67B	1.58B	1.41B
	Net Debt
238.40M	1.99B	1.63B	1.55B	1.30B
	Total Liabilities
3.22B	3.00B	3.03B	2.51B	1.94B
	Stockholders Equity
-711.90M	-491.60M	-287.70M	-10.10M	-12.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-123.10M	-286.70M	-435.60M	-126.90M	18.80M
	Operating Cash Flow
-46.40M	-14.90M	100.60M	-44.00M	62.80M
	Investing Cash Flow
-76.70M	-271.80M	-536.00M	-82.80M	-46.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
154.30M	266.20M	348.70M	139.30M	73.80M

Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.08, below the 50-day MA of 13.88, and below the 200-day MA of 17.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLMT.

Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INR	77 Outperform	$907.67M	―		―	―	―
VTS	71 Outperform	$822.88M	33.33	3.90%	10.86%	3.46%	―
KOS	69 Neutral	$884.12M	4.69	17.01%	―	-2.25%	-13.08%
SBR	66 Neutral	$887.01M	11.14	922.55%	8.92%	-11.35%	-11.76%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.68B	4.29	-3.52%	6.80%	-0.14%	-64.60%
CLMT	39 Underperform	$871.55M	―	31.18%	―	0.21%	-430.18%

Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events

Calumet Specialty Products Announces Leadership Change

On March 31, 2025, Calumet, Inc. announced the immediate termination of its Equity Distribution Agreement with BMO Capital Markets Corp., which had allowed the company to sell up to $65 million of its common stock through an ‘at-the-market’ equity offering program. The company did not incur any penalties from this termination and had not sold any shares through the program. Additionally, on April 1, 2025, Vincent Donargo resigned as the Chief Accounting Officer, effective April 15, 2025, with David Lunin set to take over the role while maintaining his current positions within the company.

Calumet Announces Retirement of Key Board Members

On March 17, 2025, James S. Carter and Daniel L. Sheets informed the Board of Directors of Calumet, Inc. of their decisions to retire and not seek re-election at the end of their terms, which conclude at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Their retirements are not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.

Calumet Specialty Products Streamlines Finances with Loan Guarantee

On February 18, 2025, Montana Renewables, LLC, a subsidiary of Calumet, Inc., terminated several financing agreements following the funding of the first tranche of a $1.44 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy. The termination of these agreements allowed MRL to repurchase key assets and repay outstanding loans, thereby streamlining its financial structure and potentially enhancing its operational efficiency.