Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.63B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 654.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: -3.99%
• EPS Growth: 83.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,620
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 86,776,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 741,469
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 654,856
• PEG Ratio: 0.60
• Price to Book (P/B): -2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 30.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.86
• 1Y Price Target: $28.20
• Price Target Upside: -3.82% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.25B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▼(-7.91% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (negative equity, recent net losses, thin margins) and limited valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend yield provided). These are partly offset by improving 2025 cash flow/operating performance, a strong uptrend in the share price (though overbought signals raise pullback risk), and constructive earnings-call updates and recent debt refinancing that extend maturities.

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation

Calumet moved to positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 after prior years of burn. Durable improvement in cash generation supports reinvestment, debt paydown and funding of capex (including SAF expansion), increasing financial flexibility versus earlier cycles.

Deleveraging and extended maturities

Material debt reduction and refinancing extended maturities to 2031, markedly improving the company’s runway. Lower near-term maturities and reduced restricted debt lessen rollover risk and give management time to convert operational gains into sustained balance sheet repair.

High‑margin specialty segment strength

Specialty Products delivered record volumes and materially higher margins, producing a stable, higher‑margin cash engine. Persistent specialty volumes and margin discipline make revenues less commodity‑sensitive and create a structural source of resilient cash flow for the firm.

Negative Factors

Negative shareholders' equity

Negative equity is a structural weakness that constrains borrowing options, can trigger covenant or counterparty pressure, and limits the company’s ability to absorb shocks or fund growth without dilutive or costly financing, leaving a lasting overhang on capital flexibility.

Net losses and thin margins

Despite operational improvement, persistent net losses and single‑digit margins leave profitability exposed to commodity cost swings and volume volatility. Thin structural margins reduce the cushion for downturns and slow durable earnings conversion into free cash flow.

Regulatory and renewable margin uncertainty

Industry‑level regulatory unpredictability and trough renewable diesel margins create persistent demand and price risks for Montana Renewables. Even with contracts, shifting RVO/45Z rules can compress returns and prolong earnings volatility for the renewables business.

Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel. This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Calumet Specialty Products generates revenue through the production and sale of specialty hydrocarbon products across its various segments. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the sale of its specialty products, which include lubricants, waxes, solvents, and asphalt. Key revenue streams come from both direct sales to customers and long-term contracts with industrial clients. Additionally, Calumet benefits from partnerships with other companies for the distribution and marketing of its products, enhancing its market reach. The company's ability to leverage its refining capabilities and technology to produce high-value specialty products contributes significantly to its earnings, especially in a market that increasingly favors customized solutions.

Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operations improved in 2025 (positive EBIT and positive free cash flow), but overall financial strength remains constrained by recent net losses, thin margins, and a structurally weak balance sheet with negative equity (a major flexibility and risk overhang).

Income Statement

Revenue has been relatively flat in recent years (2025 up modestly vs. 2024, after a decline in 2023). Profitability is mixed: 2025 shows improved operating performance (higher EBITDA and positive EBIT), but the company remains net-loss making in 2025 and 2024 after being profitable in 2023. Margins are thin overall (2025 gross margin ~5.9% and EBITDA margin ~6.1%), leaving earnings sensitive to cost and pricing swings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the primary weakness: stockholders’ equity is negative across all periods provided (including 2025), which materially reduces financial flexibility and raises risk. Debt has come down sharply in 2025 versus 2024, but leverage remains hard to evaluate cleanly with negative equity and still represents a meaningful claim on the capital structure. Overall asset size is stable, yet the negative equity position continues to be a key overhang.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is improving but inconsistent. In 2025 the company produced positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, a notable turnaround from negative operating and free cash flow in 2024 and 2023. However, the cash flow track record is volatile, with several years of meaningful cash burn and large swings in free cash flow, indicating execution and cycle sensitivity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.14B	4.19B	4.18B	4.69B	3.15B
Gross Profit	245.70M	230.80M	451.70M	351.70M	142.90M
EBITDA	238.40M	164.50M	418.20M	104.30M	15.60M
Net Income	-33.80M	-222.00M	48.10M	-169.80M	-254.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.69B	2.76B	2.75B	2.74B	2.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	125.10M	38.10M	7.90M	35.20M	38.10M
Total Debt	381.80M	2.37B	2.19B	1.89B	1.76B
Total Liabilities	3.18B	3.22B	3.00B	3.03B	2.51B
Stockholders Equity	-732.70M	-712.80M	-491.60M	-533.60M	-388.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.60M	-123.10M	-286.70M	-435.60M	-126.90M
Operating Cash Flow	108.90M	-46.40M	-14.90M	100.60M	-44.00M
Investing Cash Flow	44.10M	-76.70M	-271.80M	-286.00M	-82.80M
Financing Cash Flow	6.20M	154.30M	266.20M	98.70M	139.30M

Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.54, above the 50-day MA of 23.38, and above the 200-day MA of 18.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.

Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNR	81 Outperform	$2.25B	-11.69	6.68%	17.48%	9.33%	―
KRP	73 Outperform	$1.78B	11.74	12.36%	13.84%	-2.71%	-113.80%
VTS	68 Neutral	$766.10M	28.68	4.41%	11.72%	6.23%	-64.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TALO	61 Neutral	$2.23B	-3.89	-20.06%	―	-0.02%	-473.61%
BKV	61 Neutral	$3.00B	14.44	9.58%	―	31.67%	―
CLMT	49 Neutral	$2.63B	-51.00	―	―	-3.99%	83.80%

Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events

Calumet Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Maturity to 2031

On January 23, 2026, Calumet, Inc. entered into a Ninth Amendment to its Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, originally dated February 23, 2018, with its general partner, affiliates, lenders and Bank of America, N.A. as administrative agent, extending the facility’s maturity to January 23, 2031 and setting commitments at $500 million, subject to borrowing base limits. The amendment revises covenants, representations, events of default and other terms to allow Calumet or its subsidiaries to undertake new inventory financing transactions, with commitments under the facility to be reduced from $500 million to $425 million if any such inventory financing is completed, signaling a shift in the company’s capital structure and liquidity management strategy that could affect its future borrowing capacity and funding mix.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Calumet Specialty Products Completes Upsized Senior Notes Offering

On January 12, 2026, Calumet’s subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. completed an upsized private placement of $405 million in 9.75% senior notes due 2031, issued at 98.996% of par for net proceeds of about $393 million. The offering, increased from an originally planned $350 million and described as oversubscribed, will be used alongside cash on hand and borrowings under Calumet’s revolving credit facility to redeem the company’s outstanding 11.00% senior notes due 2026 and 8.125% senior notes due 2027, effectively eliminating near-term senior note maturities. Management linked the strong investor demand to more than $220 million of restricted group debt reduction in 2025 and over $120 million of cash generation in the second half of 2025, positioning Calumet with a longer debt maturity runway to support continued cash flow from its specialties segment and the expansion of its Montana Renewables MaxSAF 150 project.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Calumet Specialty Products Prices New Senior Notes Offering

On January 7, 2026, Calumet and its subsidiaries priced an upsized $405 million private placement of 9.75% senior notes due 2031, issued at 98.996% of par in a Rule 144A/Reg S offering, with closing expected on January 12, 2026. The company plans to use the approximately $393 million in net proceeds, together with cash on hand and borrowings under its revolving credit facility, to redeem all of its outstanding 11.00% senior notes due 2026 and 8.125% senior notes due 2027, a move that restructures its debt maturity profile and consolidates funding through a higher-coupon but longer-dated instrument, with several initial purchasers and their affiliates also positioned as creditors, agents under its revolver, and derivatives counterparties.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Calumet Specialty Products Announces New Senior Notes Offering

On January 6, 2026, Calumet, Inc. said its subsidiaries plan, subject to market conditions, to privately place $350 million of senior unsecured notes due 2031, with proceeds, together with cash and revolver borrowings, earmarked to redeem all of their 11.00% senior notes due 2026 around January 21, 2026 and $275 million of 8.125% senior notes due 2027 around January 16, 2026, effectively extending the company’s debt maturities and continuing a multi‑year balance‑sheet de‑leveraging drive. The transaction comes as Calumet highlights cost reductions of $60 million over the first three quarters of 2025, record production in its Specialty Products and Solutions segment, ongoing infrastructure upgrades at key facilities such as Shreveport, and the expansion of its Montana Renewables operations—including the MaxSAF 150 project that targets 120–150 million gallons of annual sustainable aviation fuel production by the second quarter of 2026—underscoring its strategic push toward higher‑margin specialty and renewable products and more resilient cash flows.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.