Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $764.11M
• Dividend Yield: 11.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 438.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 6.23%
• EPS Growth: -64.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 39,776,726
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 503,734
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 438,809
• PEG Ratio: -6.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.11
• 1Y Price Target: $21.67
• Price Target Upside: 12.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $261.27M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $22.00 ▲(14.52% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/14/26

The score is led by strong cash-flow generation and a conservative balance sheet, reinforced by a generally constructive (but cautious) earnings outlook with hedging and an accretive acquisition. Offsetting factors are weak technical trend signals and a higher P/E that tempers valuation support despite the very high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Vitesse’s operating cash flow and free cash flow improved materially into 2025, with operating cash flow covering net income by >3x. Durable cash generation improves the company's ability to fund maintenance capex, repurchase or acquire assets, support dividends and absorb commodity shocks.

Conservative balance sheet

A low leverage profile and a strong equity base give Vitesse financial flexibility through cycles. Conservative debt metrics reduce refinancing risk, support disciplined M&A, enable continued capital returns, and raise resilience to commodity-driven cashflow swings over the medium term.

Accretive M&A and reserve growth

The accretive Powder River deal and prior Lucero contribution expanded acreage, added ~1,400 net BOE/d and lifted proved reserves ~19%, improving PDP and optionality. Quality operators (EOG, Continental) on the assets increase the long-term value and development potential of the non-operated portfolio.

Negative Factors

Earnings cyclicality

Vitesse’s results show material year-to-year swings driven by commodity prices and timing of capital activity. Intermittent losses and modest ROE indicate that returns are sensitive to commodity cycles, which limits predictability of long-term shareholder returns and makes sustained payout policies harder to guarantee.

Partial hedge coverage

While hedging reduces near-term cashflow volatility, coverage remains partial so the company retains meaningful oil price exposure. That residual exposure can materially affect operating cash flow, dividends treated as return of capital, and the economics of future development or acquisition plans if prices move sharply.

Operator dependence

Vitesse’s reliance on third‑party operators constrains control over drilling cadence, capital timing and operating costs. Limited visibility into operator activity increases production and cashflow uncertainty, restricting the company’s ability to reliably grow volumes or execute time-sensitive development strategies.

Vitesse Energy, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vitesse Energy, Inc. focuses on acquisition, ownership, exploration, development, management, production, exploitation, and dispose of oil and gas properties. The company acquires non-operated working interest and royalty interest ownership primarily in the core of the Bakken Field in North Dakota and Montana. It also owns non-operated interests in oil and gas properties in Colorado and Wyoming. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is based in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Vitesse makes money primarily by earning its proportional share of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production revenues from wells in which it owns non-operated working interests. Under this model, the well operator markets the produced hydrocarbons (often through purchasers/midstream counterparties) and remits to Vitesse its net share of proceeds after applying customary items such as production-related taxes, post-production charges (e.g., gathering/transportation/processing, depending on contract terms), and any operator-managed deductions reflected in owner statements. Vitesse’s net cash flow is then reduced by its share of ongoing operating expenses and capital expenditures (e.g., drilling and completion costs for new wells and workovers) billed by the operator, as well as corporate-level costs (e.g., G&A, interest expense if applicable). Key revenue drivers include commodity prices (oil and gas benchmarks and regional differentials), production volumes from its existing well interests, the pace and success of operator-led drilling programs on acreage where it owns interests, and its ability to acquire additional producing and/or undeveloped non-operated interests. Significant factors that contribute to earnings therefore include the performance and capital allocation decisions of third-party operators, the company’s hedging activities (if used) and realized pricing, and acquisition activity that expands its portfolio of producing wells or future drilling inventory. Specific named partnerships or counterparties: null.

Vitesse Energy, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving operating cash flow with a notable 2025 step-up in free cash flow supports earnings quality, and leverage appears conservative with improved flexibility. Offsetting this is meaningful earnings cyclicality/volatility across years and only modest ROE recently, which reduces confidence in durability.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded sharply in 2025 (annual growth ~99%) following modest growth in 2024 and a decline in 2023, signaling improving top-line momentum but with notable cyclicality. Profitability is positive in 2024–2025 (net margins ~8–9%), but results are volatile across the cycle (large profit in 2022, loss in 2023, losses also in 2020), which lowers confidence in earnings durability. EBITDA margins remain strong (mid‑40% to mid‑60% range historically), supporting the core economics, though the 2025 gross profit/EBIT margin data appears inconsistent (gross profit shown as 0), limiting margin-based read-through for that year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears conservative, with debt-to-equity low in most years (generally ~0.09–0.24) and reported total debt dropping to zero in 2025, which meaningfully improves financial flexibility. The company maintains a solid equity base (equity ~$629M in 2025 vs. assets ~$893M), suggesting a balance sheet that can better withstand commodity-driven volatility. Returns on equity are modest in 2024–2025 (~4%) and were negative in 2023, indicating that while the capital structure is healthy, the company’s ability to consistently generate attractive shareholder returns is still uneven.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently strong and improving (about $87M in 2021 to ~$170M in 2025), reflecting good cash generation through the cycle. Cash conversion strengthened materially in 2025, with free cash flow matching operating cash flow and operating cash flow covering net income by more than 3x, implying high earnings quality and/or meaningful non-cash charges. Free cash flow has been volatile in prior years (notably low relative to net income in 2023–2024), but the step-change improvement in 2025 and very strong free cash flow growth support a higher score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	273.99M	242.00M	233.91M	281.89M	185.18M
Gross Profit	34.79M	72.59M	91.02M	162.93M	126.73M
EBITDA	174.69M	139.02M	129.22M	186.79M	82.17M
Net Income	25.28M	21.06M	-21.58M	118.90M	18.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	893.35M	810.89M	765.97M	660.48M	611.53M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.33M	2.97M	552.00K	10.01M	5.36M
Total Debt	129.30M	121.22M	84.26M	50.74M	68.00M
Total Liabilities	264.03M	310.56M	219.56M	91.50M	125.66M
Stockholders Equity	629.32M	500.33M	546.41M	568.98M	485.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	170.35M	39.68M	21.28M	62.46M	43.65M
Operating Cash Flow	170.35M	155.00M	141.94M	147.04M	86.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-127.66M	-115.32M	-120.67M	-84.58M	-43.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-44.33M	-37.27M	-30.73M	-57.81M	-42.59M

Vitesse Energy, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.21
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.03, below the 50-day MA of 19.94, and below the 200-day MA of 21.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VTS.

Vitesse Energy, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTS	70 Outperform	$764.11M	28.68	3.86%	11.72%	6.23%	-64.88%
SBR	66 Neutral	$1.10B	13.61	4.32%	7.51%	-14.84%	-16.23%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
INR	63 Neutral	$1.15B	―	60.84%	―	―	―
HPK	57 Neutral	$846.60M	31.31	1.17%	3.71%	-22.39%	-71.57%
KOS	48 Neutral	$1.39B	-0.62	-79.00%	―	-22.11%	-248.33%

Vitesse Energy, Inc. Corporate Events

Vitesse Energy Expands 2026 Hedging to Enhance Stability

On March 11, 2026, Vitesse Energy director M. Bruce Chernoff resigned from the company’s board effective March 13, 2026, with the company stating his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices. The board publicly thanked Chernoff for his service, signaling an orderly governance transition rather than a sign of internal dispute.

Also on March 13, 2026, Vitesse announced a major hedging update, revealing that, based on the midpoint of its 2026 guidance, about 67% of its 2026 oil production was hedged, alongside extensive natural gas, basis, and NGL contracts extending into 2027. These opportunistic additional hedges at defined price levels are designed to increase cash flow certainty, support the dividend, and bolster the company’s financial resilience amid recent commodity price volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTS) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vitesse Energy, Inc. stock, see the VTS Stock Forecast page.

Vitesse Energy Expands Non-Operated Footprint with Wyoming Acquisition

Vitesse Energy, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 2, 2026, posting 2025 net income of $25.3 million, adjusted EBITDA of $179.3 million and average production of 17,444 Boe per day, driven in part by the March 2025 Lucero Energy acquisition and a 19% increase in proved reserves to 47.8 million Boe despite lower SEC pricing. The company also detailed a modest fourth-quarter 2025 net loss, maintained disciplined capital spending and dividends, and strengthened its reserve base and leverage metrics, positioning itself for continued non-operated growth while managing commodity price volatility.

Vitesse signed a definitive all-stock deal on March 1, 2026 to acquire non-operated assets in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin for $35 million, adding over 6,000 net acres, expected 2026 production of about 1,400 Boe per day and 29 net undeveloped locations operated primarily by EOG and Continental. The acquisition, effective January 1, 2026 and expected to close early in the second quarter, is projected to be accretive to earnings, cash flow and net asset value per share, while the board’s recent dividend actions underscore a strategy of balancing shareholder returns with accretive, hedge-supported expansion of its non-operated asset footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTS) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vitesse Energy, Inc. stock, see the VTS Stock Forecast page.