ARYZTA AG (CH:ARYN)
:ARYN
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ARYZTA AG
(ARYN)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
CHF66.00
▲(3.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability and positive free cash flow) alongside constructive, though not fully long-term, technical momentum. The earnings call supports the outlook via execution and reiterated targets, but leverage and margin pressure remain key constraints. Valuation is reasonable on earnings (P/E ~12.1), with no dividend data to further support returns.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow and conversion
Consistent, improving free cash flow and near-40% EBITDA cash conversion provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, targeted capex and digital investment. This cash-generation profile materially increases financial flexibility and supports midterm deleveraging and execution of strategic programs.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage above targets
Leverage materially above target limits strategic optionality and raises financing vulnerability to shocks. Until net debt falls into the stated 1.5–2x range, cash flow must prioritize deleveraging over growth or shareholder returns, constraining long-term capital allocation flexibility and increasing refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow and conversion
Consistent, improving free cash flow and near-40% EBITDA cash conversion provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, targeted capex and digital investment. This cash-generation profile materially increases financial flexibility and supports midterm deleveraging and execution of strategic programs.
Read all positive factors
ARYZTA AG (ARYN) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)
Market Cap
CHF1.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)101.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth0.90%
EPS Growth30.62%
CountryCH
Employees7,654
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.25
Shares Outstanding24,827,644
10 Day Avg. Volume191,388
30 Day Avg. Volume101,008
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio7.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
CHF70.33Price Target Upside10.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)CHF2.28B
ARYZTA AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ARYZTA AG provides frozen B2B baking solutions in Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and South America. It offers bread rolls and artisan loaves, sweet baked and morning goods, and savory and other products. The company also provides asset mana...
How the Company Makes Money
ARYZTA generates revenue primarily through the sale of its baked goods to various sectors, including retail and food service. The company's revenue model is based on both direct sales and long-term contracts with customers, ensuring a steady strea...
ARYZTA AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a resilient operational and financial performance: organic growth (+1.5%), EBITDA above guidance (EUR 306.9m), strong free cash flow (EUR 120m) and improved ROIC (12.1%) and working capital metrics. Management outlined a clear midterm plan with targeted savings (EUR 20–30m net) and digital reinvestment while progressing on hybrid buyback and balance sheet repair. However, margin pressure from input inflation (‑290bps impact on gross margin), FX headwinds, a still-elevated leverage (2.6x), flat retail performance and one‑off restructuring costs in 2026 temper the outlook. Overall, the positives around cash generation, execution on savings and balance sheet improvement outweigh the near-term challenges, but investors should note the H1 cash flow phasing and pending details on restructuring and capital allocation.Positive Updates
Revenue and Organic Growth
Reported revenue of EUR 2.223 billion for FY2025 with organic growth of 1.5%, driven by volume (0.5%) and pricing (1.0%).
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure from Input Costs
Input cost inflation (notably labour, butter, protein, chocolate) negatively impacted gross margin by ~290 basis points; FX and other elements subtracted ~50bps, leaving FY EBITDA margin 80bps below prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Organic Growth
Reported revenue of EUR 2.223 billion for FY2025 with organic growth of 1.5%, driven by volume (0.5%) and pricing (1.0%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ARYZTA confirmed it will deliver on the mid‑term plan, targeting low‑ to mid‑single‑digit organic growth after reporting FY25 revenues of EUR 2.223 billion with 1.5% organic growth, EBITDA of EUR 306.9m (13.8% margin), free cash flow of EUR 120m (~40% cash conversion), EPS EUR 4.25 (+5.7%) and ROIC 12.1% (vs WACC ~8%). Management reiterated targets of EBITDA margin ≥15% and EBIT margin ≥9%, capex of 3.5–4.5% of revenue, total net debt leverage of 1.5–2x (currently 2.6x), core equity of 21.1% moving toward ~30%, expected financing costs EUR 40–43m in 2026, and net savings of EUR 20–30m (within EUR 40–60m gross savings) from the excellence program, noting some restructuring costs in 2026 with fuller benefits in 2027.ARYZTA AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.24B | 2.19B | 2.22B | 1.76B | 1.53B |
| Gross Profit | 707.49M | 469.20M | 711.34M | 318.50M | 252.50M |
| EBITDA | 307.90M | 341.00M | 304.76M | 170.30M | 182.90M |
| Net Income | 113.03M | 129.60M | 70.00M | 900.00K | -235.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 1.91B | 1.97B | 2.08B | 2.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 68.55M | 77.10M | 130.80M | 245.80M | 170.90M |
| Total Debt | 713.94M | 816.40M | 524.90M | 535.80M | 373.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.17B | 1.15B | 961.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 552.67M | 452.10M | 793.30M | 932.40M | 1.10B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 173.22M | 216.40M | 197.30M | 116.80M | 300.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 259.38M | 298.90M | 251.40M | 200.10M | 84.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -96.93M | -93.40M | -60.10M | 8.90M | 633.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -166.58M | -230.60M | -299.10M | -143.40M | -976.00M |
ARYZTA AG Technical Analysis
Positive
63.70
Price Trends
58.13
Positive
54.58
Positive
62.05
Positive
Market Momentum
1.41
Negative
70.56
Negative
77.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:ARYN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.94, above the 50-day MA of 58.13, and above the 200-day MA of 62.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.56 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:ARYN.
ARYZTA AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | CHF4.43B | 7.18 | 22.25% | 2.26% | 10.78% | 10.53% | |
69 Neutral | CHF1.58B | 12.13 | 21.15% | ― | 0.90% | 30.62% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
53 Neutral | CHF1.26B | 14.64 | 7.93% | 3.18% | 4.59% | -3.22% | |
47 Neutral | CHF74.94M | 9.48 | ― | ― | -1.86% | -303.03% |
* General Sector Average
CH:ARYN
ARYZTA AG
63.70
-11.86
-15.70%
CH:EMMN
Emmi AG
828.00
64.50
8.45%
CH:BELL
Bell Food Group
201.00
-54.50
-21.33%
CH:ORON
Orior AG
11.48
-4.62
-28.70%
ARYZTA AG Corporate Events
ARYZTA lifts EPS on solid 2025 results and plans capital returns, governance shift
Mar 2, 2026
ARYZTA AG reported a solid operational performance and cash generation for its 2025 financial year, translating into a 5.7% increase in earnings per share and underlining the strength of its convenience bakery franchise. The company plans further ...
ARYZTA Hits 2025 Targets Early and Invests €40m in New Portuguese Bakery
Jan 22, 2026
ARYZTA AG announced that it has already achieved its full-year 2025 financial targets and expects further revenue growth and improved operational performance in 2026. As part of its expansion and capacity strategy, the company is investing in a ne...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.