Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $30.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.94
• Revenue Growth: 15.87%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Hotels, Lodging & Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 1.39
• Shares Outstanding: 1,164,202,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,889,240
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,075,514
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.26
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 8.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $29.94
• Price Target Upside: 36.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

Carnival Corporation's stock is moderately rated due to its financial recovery and strong earnings guidance, counterbalanced by high debt levels and technical indicators suggesting short-term weakness. The positive sentiment from recent earnings and strategic debt management measures provide a supportive backdrop, but risks from leverage and market momentum must be considered.

Positive Factors

Booking Trends

Carnival's bookings for 2025 and 2026 are at high levels, indicating strong demand and higher prices.

Demand and Pricing

Demand remains robust with no signs of slowdown in Europe, and pricing is tracking up mid-to-high single digits.

Negative Factors

Operational Costs

Operational costs are expected to rise due to increased drydock days, Celebration Key expenses, and higher advertising spend.

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is a global cruise company and one of the largest leisure travel companies in the world. The company operates a portfolio of cruise lines, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and several others, offering a wide range of cruise experiences to various destinations worldwide. Carnival's sectors include travel and tourism, hospitality, and entertainment, providing customers with accommodations, dining, entertainment, and recreational activities onboard its ships.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnival Corporation & plc generates revenue primarily from its cruise operations, with ticket sales being the primary revenue stream. This includes the sale of cabin accommodations for various cruises offered by its different cruise lines. Additionally, the company earns significant income from onboard spending, which encompasses dining, beverages, casino gaming, retail purchases, excursions at ports of call, and other entertainment options provided during the voyage. Carnival also benefits from partnerships and collaborations with travel agencies, tour operators, and local businesses at port destinations, which enhance their service offerings and can drive further revenue. Key factors contributing to its earnings include fleet capacity utilization, pricing strategies, and the ability to attract and retain customers through marketing and loyalty programs.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carnival's financials reflect a recovery trajectory from the pandemic's impact, with notable improvements in revenue and operational margins. However, the company still faces challenges with high leverage and capital expenditure demands impacting free cash flow. Stronger profitability and balance sheet de-risking could enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Carnival's income statement shows a recovery trend post-pandemic with revenues increasing from $5.59 billion in 2020 to $21.59 billion in 2023. The gross profit margin is strong, reflecting cost management improvements. However, the net profit margin was negative in 2023 due to past losses impacting overall profitability. Recent EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating operational recovery.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of around 3.5 in 2023, posing a risk. Stockholders' equity has decreased from 2019, though it shows signs of recovery. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting reliance on debt financing, which could be a concern if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Carnival's cash flow has improved, with operating cash flow turning positive in recent years. However, free cash flow is still constrained due to significant capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has improved, indicating better cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B	5.59B
	Gross Profit
15.86B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B	-2.65B
	EBIT
3.57B	1.96B	-4.38B	-7.09B	-8.87B
	EBITDA
6.23B	4.35B	-2.04B	-5.55B	-6.94B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B	-10.24B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B	9.51B
	Total Assets
48.28B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B	53.59B
	Total Debt
28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B	28.38B
	Net Debt
27.67B	29.48B	31.85B	25.67B	18.87B
	Total Liabilities
39.03B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B	33.04B
	Stockholders Equity
9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B	20.55B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B	-9.92B
	Operating Cash Flow
5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B	-6.30B
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B	-3.24B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B	18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.09, below the 50-day MA of 25.35, and above the 200-day MA of 20.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RCL	77 Outperform	$64.89B	22.04	38.04%	0.39%	18.60%	65.95%
EXPE	72 Outperform	$24.32B	20.86	79.25%	―	6.64%	69.85%
TRIP	62 Neutral	$1.94B	835.76	0.53%	―	2.63%	-58.77%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$13.01B	10.45	0.79%	3.53%	1.60%	-22.47%
CCL	59 Neutral	$30.97B	16.71	20.71%	―	15.87%	―
NCLH	57 Neutral	$9.66B	11.92	63.86%	―	10.87%	433.82%
LIND	47 Neutral	$588.44M	―	21.42%	―	13.20%	28.95%

Carnival Corporate Events

Carnival Reduces Debt with $1 Billion Note Offering

On February 28, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes with a 5.750% interest rate due in 2030. The proceeds, along with cash on hand, were used to redeem $1.0 billion of higher-interest notes, reducing the company’s interest expense by over 4.5% and saving approximately $45 million annually. This strategic move is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to manage its debt and reduce financial costs, potentially strengthening its financial position and operational flexibility.

Carnival Reduces Interest Costs with New Debt Offering

On February 28, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes with a 5.750% interest rate, maturing in 2030. The proceeds were used to redeem existing 10.500% senior unsecured notes, reducing the company’s interest expense by over 4.5%, which is expected to lower annual interest costs by approximately $45 million. This strategic financial maneuver is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to manage debt and reduce interest expenses, potentially improving its financial health and operational flexibility.

Carnival’s $2 Billion Offering to Refinance Debt

On February 7, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $2.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2033, aimed at refinancing existing debt and reducing interest expenses. This move is part of Carnival’s broader strategy to lower interest costs, simplify its capital structure, and manage future debt maturities, resulting in an annual interest expense reduction of over $80 million.

Carnival’s $2 Billion Note Offering to Reduce Costs

On February 7, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $2.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2033, using the proceeds to redeem $2.03 billion in higher-interest senior priority notes due 2028. This financial maneuver is part of Carnival’s strategy to reduce interest expenses, which is expected to lower net annual interest costs by over $80 million, simplify its capital structure, and manage future debt maturities, thereby impacting its financial health positively.

Carnival Corporation Reprices Loans to Enhance Stability

Carnival Corporation has announced the repricing of approximately $700 million in term loans maturing in 2027 and $1.75 billion in loans maturing in 2028, as part of their ongoing efforts to reduce interest expenses. This repricing is anticipated to save the company around $18 million annually, potentially enhancing their financial stability and competitiveness within the leisure travel industry.

Carnival Enhances Financial Health with Loan Repricing

Carnival Corporation announced the repricing of approximately $700 million in term loans maturing in 2027 and $1.75 billion in term loans maturing in 2028 as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce interest expenses. This repricing is expected to save the company around $18 million annually in interest expenses, enhancing its financial efficiency and potentially benefiting stakeholders by improving overall financial health.

Carnival Announces Leadership Change with Board Member Departure

Sara Mathew has decided not to stand for re-election at Carnival Corporation’s 2025 Annual Meetings, choosing to focus on other business ventures. Her departure from the Board of Directors may influence the company’s strategic direction as new leadership steps in, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests.

Sara Mathew to Step Down from Carnival Board

Sara Mathew has decided not to seek re-election to Carnival’s Board of Directors to focus on other business ventures, and will step down following the 2025 Annual Meetings of Shareholders, expected in April. This decision marks a change in the board’s composition, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction and governance.