Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $34.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: 6.39%
• EPS Growth: 39.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 1,239,000,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 33,748,191
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,437,619
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.76
• 1Y Price Target: $36.47
• Price Target Upside: 47.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.52
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $27.86B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(5.18% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

CCL’s score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a strong earnings-call outlook (record 2025 performance, guidance strength, and capital return actions) alongside supportive technical momentum. Offsetting factors are the still-leveraged balance sheet, weaker 2025 free-cash-flow conversion, and margin/cost pressures noted in both the financial statements and 2026 cost guidance.

Positive Factors

Profitability Recovery

Carnival's 2025 scale and profitability rebound—higher revenue and net income with improved operating and EBITDA margins—reflects durable demand recovery and operating leverage. Greater scale supports sustained cash generation, pricing power and reinvestment capacity over the next several quarters.

Deleveraging and Cash Generation

The firm has materially reduced absolute debt since peak levels and increased equity, improving debt-to-equity. Coupled with solid operating cash flow (~$6.2B) and resumed dividend/share repurchases, the trend strengthens refinancing flexibility and the ability to fund strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Corporate Simplification

The agreed unification and planned redomicile simplify a long-standing dual structure into a single NYSE-listed entity, which can reduce governance complexity, streamline capital access, clarify shareholder rights, and improve operational coordination if regulatory and shareholder approvals are obtained.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Despite declines from peak levels, absolute debt and a multi-turn leverage profile leave Carnival sensitive to rising rates or demand shocks. High leverage limits balance sheet optionality, increases interest expense risk, and constrains sustained capital returns or large strategic investments during tougher cycles.

Weak FCF Conversion

Free cash flow covered only ~42% of reported net income in 2025, signaling weaker cash conversion and volatility versus earnings. Structural variability in FCF reduces reliability of internally generated funds for debt reduction, dividends, and buybacks without sustained margin or revenue upside.

Margin and Cost Pressure

A meaningful drop in gross margin year-over-year, plus management guidance for rising non-fuel cruise costs (~3.25% per ALBD) and expected regulatory/tax increases, represent sustained headwinds. Ongoing margin pressure can erode operating leverage and constrain cash flow resilience over coming quarters.

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnival primarily makes money by selling cruise vacations and then monetizing guest spending before and during the voyage. The company’s revenue model is commonly grouped into two main streams: (1) Passenger ticket revenues—fares paid by guests for cruise itineraries, which vary based on ship, itinerary, cabin type, seasonality, and pricing/occupancy management; and (2) Onboard and other revenues—guest purchases tied to the cruise experience, such as beverage packages and bar sales, specialty dining, shore excursions (tours and activities sold for ports of call), spa and fitness services, retail and casino activity, internet and communication services, gratuities/service charges where applicable, and other ancillary offerings. Additional sources can include revenue from air/ground transportation sold in connection with cruises, destination and port-related services, and advertising or concession-type arrangements onboard (specific partnership terms: null). Profitability is influenced by factors such as fleet capacity and utilization (occupancy), onboard spend per passenger, itinerary and pricing mix, fuel and other operating costs, foreign exchange movements, regulatory and port cost changes, and the company’s ability to manage demand through promotions and advance bookings.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recovery in profitability and scale (2025 revenue $26.6B; net income $2.76B; improved operating/EBITDA margins), supported by solid operating cash flow (~$6.2B). The score is constrained by still-elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.28x with ~$28B debt), weaker cash conversion (FCF ~$2.6B; ~42% of net income), and notable 2025 gross margin pressure versus 2024.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale have rebounded sharply: revenue rose to $26.6B in 2025 (up from $25.0B in 2024 and $21.6B in 2023) and net income improved to $2.76B (from $1.92B in 2024 and a small loss in 2023). Operating performance strengthened with solid 2025 operating and EBITDA margins (~15.5% and ~26.0%). Key watchout: gross margin fell meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024 (~29.6% vs ~37.5%), suggesting cost pressure even as overall profits improved.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is improving but still leveraged. Total debt declined to ~$28.0B in 2025 from ~$31.9B in 2023, and equity increased to ~$12.3B, bringing debt-to-equity down to ~2.28x (better than ~3.12x in 2024 and ~4.63x in 2023). Returns on equity are strong in 2024–2025 (~21%–22%), reflecting the earnings recovery. Main risk remains elevated absolute debt levels and continued reliance on a sizable capital structure versus equity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid with operating cash flow of ~$6.2B in 2025 (up from ~$5.9B in 2024 and ~$4.3B in 2023) and free cash flow of ~$2.6B. However, free cash flow declined in 2025 versus 2024 (negative growth), and free cash flow covered less than half of net income in 2025 (~42%), indicating weaker cash conversion than earnings would suggest. Cash flow metrics are clearly healthier than the negative period in 2020–2022, but year-to-year volatility remains a consideration.

Breakdown	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.62B	25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B
Gross Profit	7.88B	9.38B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B
EBITDA	6.91B	6.23B	4.37B	-2.20B	-5.69B
Net Income	2.76B	1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.69B	49.06B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.93B	1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B
Total Debt	27.99B	28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B
Total Liabilities	39.40B	39.81B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B
Stockholders Equity	12.28B	9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.61B	1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B
Operating Cash Flow	6.22B	5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.32B	-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.19B	-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B

Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 24.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.83, below the 50-day MA of 30.01, and below the 200-day MA of 28.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RCL	73 Outperform	$75.97B	17.69	45.87%	1.09%	8.61%	49.58%
OSW	72 Outperform	$2.11B	29.88	13.18%	0.79%	7.27%	45.12%
CCL	70 Outperform	$34.20B	12.33	25.45%	―	6.39%	39.66%
VIK	63 Neutral	$31.75B	27.60	9999.00%	―	20.04%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LIND	54 Neutral	$1.10B	-26.67	13.32%	―	18.50%	7.78%
NCLH	53 Neutral	$8.60B	24.01	22.91%	―	3.59%	19.09%

Carnival Corporate Events

Carnival to Unify Dual Structure and Redomicile to Bermuda

On February 20, 2026, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc signed a unification agreement to collapse their long-standing dual-listed company structure into a single entity under Carnival Corporation, with Carnival plc becoming a wholly owned U.K. subsidiary. The plan also includes redomiciling Carnival Corporation from Panama to Bermuda under the name Carnival Corporation Ltd., subject to multiple shareholder, court, regulatory, and listing approvals.

Key conditions for the deal include U.K. court sanction of a scheme of arrangement, NYSE approval for new Carnival Corporation shares, effectiveness of a U.S. securities registration, and competition and foreign investment clearances. Several regulatory milestones have already been achieved in 2026, including early U.S. antitrust clearance on January 29, German foreign investment approval on February 4, and German cartel clearance on February 18.

The companies have committed to use reasonable efforts to secure all remaining approvals and to coordinate regulatory filings and communications, with an outside deadline of December 31, 2026, after which the agreement may be terminated if conditions remain unmet. The unification will also entail listing the new Bermuda-domiciled Carnival Corporation Ltd. on the NYSE, delisting Carnival plc ADSs, terminating the ADS facility, and addressing outstanding awards under Carnival plc’s employee share schemes, signaling a significant simplification of the group’s capital and listing structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival to Unify Dual-Listed Structure, Redomicile to Bermuda

On February 20, 2026, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc signed a unification agreement to collapse their dual-listed company structure into a single entity under Carnival Corporation, with Carnival plc becoming a wholly owned UK subsidiary and Carnival Corporation migrating its domicile from Panama to Bermuda as Carnival Corporation Ltd. The move, which has already secured key antitrust and foreign investment clearances in the U.S., Germany and Germany’s foreign investment authority as of January and February 2026, remains subject to shareholder, court, listing and regulatory approvals by December 31, 2026, and will result in NYSE listing of the unified Bermuda-based company and the delisting of Carnival plc ADSs, simplifying the corporate structure and potentially streamlining capital market access and governance for investors.

If the required conditions, including UK court sanctioning of a scheme of arrangement and NYSE approval for new Carnival shares, are not met or waived by the end of 2026, the unification and redomiciliation will be abandoned under the agreement. Carnival and Carnival plc have committed to cooperate closely on regulatory filings, treatment of employee share awards and implementation logistics, aiming to reduce structural complexity and align the group under a single primary listing if the transaction proceeds.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Updates ADR Agreement Amid Planned Corporate Unification

On February 12, 2026, Carnival plc amended its Amended and Restated Deposit Agreement with JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., revising the termination provisions governing its American Depositary Receipts program. The changes define new triggers for ending the agreement, including 30 days’ notice by the company, automatic termination upon completion of the proposed unification of Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc’s dual-listed structure along with Carnival Corporation’s migration from Panama to Bermuda, and various events such as delistings, insolvency, or the absence of a successor depositary.

Following a termination tied to the planned unification and migration, the depositary will use reasonable efforts to distribute New Carnival Shares to ADR holders in exchange for the ordinary shares underlying their receipts, or otherwise sell the remaining deposited securities and hold the net cash proceeds in trust for them. The amendment also introduces technical and conforming changes to the deposit agreement and the form of ADR, clarifying the treatment of investors’ interests during any future corporate restructuring and potential end of the ADR program.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Updates ADR Agreement Amid Planned Corporate Unification

On February 12, 2026, Carnival plc amended its Amended and Restated Deposit Agreement with JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., revising the termination provisions governing its American Depositary Receipts program. The changes specify new triggers for ending the agreement, including 30 days’ notice by either the company or the depositary in various scenarios such as delistings, insolvency, lack of a successor depositary, or corporate transactions involving the underlying securities.

The agreement will also terminate automatically upon completion of the planned unification of Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc’s dual listed company arrangement and the migration of Carnival Corporation from Panama to Bermuda. Following such a termination, the depositary will seek to distribute new common shares of Carnival Corporation Ltd. to ADR holders or, if that is not possible, sell remaining deposited securities and distribute net proceeds, clarifying how ADR investors would be treated in the group’s proposed restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.