Casey's General (CASY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.74B
• Dividend Yield: 0.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 463.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 43.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: 13.33%
• EPS Growth: 13.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,935
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 3.49
• Shares Outstanding: 36,959,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 540,723
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 463,141
• PEG Ratio: 3.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.05
• 1Y Price Target: $714.73
• Price Target Upside: 6.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 17.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $17.14B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $738.00 ▲(10.23% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/10/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (consistent revenue growth and stable profitability) and a constructive technical trend (above key longer-term moving averages). The latest earnings call adds support via strong results and upbeat guidance, while valuation is tempered by a modest dividend yield and moderate P/E, and financial quality is held back by volatile free cash flow and less-reliable recent balance-sheet datapoints.

Positive Factors

Steady Revenue Growth

Consistent ~7% revenue growth across FY2025 and TTM indicates durable demand for Casey’s multi-channel convenience model. Steady top-line expansion supports unit economics, funds reinvestment in stores and product mix, and provides a stable base for margin improvement over the next several quarters.

Higher‑margin Prepared Food Mix

Growth in prepared food and dispensed beverage sales reflects successful execution of higher-margin in-store offerings. Because prepared food typically carries meaningfully higher gross margins than fuel, expanding this mix improves per-store profitability and customer frequency, offering a durable lever to lift corporate margins.

Fuel Volume and Margin Strength

Sustained fuel gallon growth and above-regional margins demonstrate market-share gains in a core revenue stream. Reliable fuel volumes drive store traffic and cross-sell to higher-margin food categories, creating a stable, persistent cash-flow engine that supports network economics and expansion plans over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Thin Retail Margins

Casey’s operates in a low-margin retail model; even with improvements, operating and net margins stay modest. That structural thinness makes earnings and cash flow sensitive to commodity cost swings, wage or utility inflation, and execution missteps, limiting buffer against adverse shocks over months.

Volatile Free Cash Flow

Material volatility in free cash flow and FCF covering only about half of TTM net income reduces financial flexibility. This pattern implies heavier reinvestment or working-capital swings and can constrain capital allocation for store growth, acquisitions, or shareholder returns during unfavorable periods.

Lower‑margin Cefco Integration

Integrating a lower-margin banner dilutes consolidated profitability and raises execution risk as Casey’s assimilates locations. Coupled with noted rising operating and interest expenses tied to recent transactions, this structural margin pressure could persist and slow margin recovery even as revenues expand.

Casey's General Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names. Its stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; beverages; tobacco and nicotine products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. The company's stores also provide motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; and gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition, its stores offer various products, include soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, electronic accessories, housewares, and pet supplies; and lotto/lottery and prepaid cards. Further, the company operates two stores that sells tobacco and nicotine products; one liquor store; and one grocery store. As of April 30, 2022, it operated 2,452 convenience stores. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

How the Company Makes Money

Casey’s primarily makes money through three main revenue streams: (1) Motor fuel sales: Casey’s sells gasoline and, in some locations, diesel. Fuel typically drives a large portion of total revenue due to high sales volumes, with profitability influenced by per-gallon fuel margins and volumes rather than only pump price levels. (2) In-store convenience and grocery merchandise: Stores sell packaged beverages, snacks, tobacco and nicotine products, beer and other alcohol where permitted, and various grocery and general merchandise items. This segment generally relies on retail gross margins and customer traffic, often benefiting from fuel-driven store visits and loyalty promotions. (3) Prepared food and dispensed beverages: Casey’s generates revenue from made-to-order and prepared foods (including pizza and other hot foods) and dispensed beverages. Prepared food often carries higher gross margins than fuel and is a key contributor to store-level profitability and customer frequency. Additional earnings drivers can include retailer fees or commissions from services offered in-store (e.g., lottery in states where available, money services, or similar programs) and other ancillary income where offered; if any of these services are not offered in a given market or period, related revenue would not apply. The company’s results are also affected by factors such as store count and same-store sales performance, fuel supply and pricing dynamics, product mix (especially higher-margin prepared food), and operating efficiency.

Casey's General Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is steady (~7% in FY2025 and TTM) with stable-to-improving operating and net margins for specialty retail. Offsets include thin margins overall, volatile free cash flow (TTM FCF growth sharply negative and ~54% of net income), and reduced confidence in the latest balance-sheet snapshot due to missing/zero TTM fields.

Income Statement

CASY shows solid top-line momentum, with revenue up ~7% in both FY2025 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) after a brief dip in FY2024. Profitability is steady-to-improving: TTM operating profitability (~5.3%) and net margin (~3.6%) are healthy for specialty retail and slightly better than FY2025, while gross margin remains stable in the low‑to‑mid 20% range. The main weakness is that margins remain relatively thin overall (typical for the model), making earnings more sensitive to cost inflation and execution.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate, with debt-to-equity around ~0.54–0.84 across FY2022–FY2025, and equity growing over time alongside expanding assets. Returns on equity are attractive (mid‑teens in the annual periods and ~24% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), supporting the view that capital is being used productively. Key caution: the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) balance-sheet fields show missing/zero values for debt, equity, and assets despite a provided leverage ratio, which reduces confidence in the most recent balance-sheet snapshot.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~$1.31B and free cash flow of ~$0.67B. However, free cash flow has been volatile: FY2025 improved versus FY2024, but TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth is sharply negative, and free cash flow covers only ~54% of TTM net income—suggesting heavier reinvestment and/or working-capital swings. Operating cash flow relative to net income is around ~1.1x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which is supportive, but not consistently strong year-to-year.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.98B	15.94B	14.86B	15.09B	12.95B	8.71B
Gross Profit	4.06B	3.75B	3.35B	3.07B	2.76B	2.36B
EBITDA	1.51B	1.20B	1.06B	952.46M	801.24M	719.24M
Net Income	650.07M	546.52M	501.97M	446.69M	339.79M	312.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.59B	8.44B	6.35B	5.94B	5.51B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	465.02M	326.66M	206.48M	378.87M	158.88M	336.55M
Total Debt	2.90B	2.96B	1.64B	1.67B	1.69B	1.36B
Total Liabilities	4.73B	4.93B	3.33B	3.28B	3.26B	2.53B
Stockholders Equity	3.85B	3.51B	3.02B	2.66B	2.24B	1.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	667.33M	584.63M	370.95M	405.38M	462.27M	362.84M
Operating Cash Flow	1.31B	1.09B	892.95M	881.95M	788.74M	804.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-717.07M	-1.73B	-825.36M	-545.03M	-1.16B	-444.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-525.61M	755.99M	-239.98M	-116.93M	191.59M	-101.48M

Casey's General Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 669.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CASY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 669.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 676.03, above the 50-day MA of 646.85, and above the 200-day MA of 558.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 8.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CASY.

Casey's General Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	72 Outperform	$24.74B	43.17	17.55%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
TSCO	67 Neutral	$24.19B	24.85	44.36%	1.80%	4.26%	0.73%
DKS	64 Neutral	$17.11B	35.01	19.45%	2.33%	10.86%	-11.63%
GPC	63 Neutral	$13.86B	259.07	1.44%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MUSA	57 Neutral	$8.56B	16.55	74.25%	0.53%	-6.08%	-2.40%
BBY	51 Neutral	$13.17B	12.85	38.54%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%