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Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSE:BURL
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Burlington Stores
(NYSE:BURL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$319.00
▲(2.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven mainly by improving operating performance but constrained by high balance-sheet leverage and inconsistent free cash flow. Guidance and earnings-call sentiment are supportive with solid growth targets and liquidity, while technical signals are mixed and valuation is relatively expensive (P/E ~41.8).
Positive Factors
Off-price business model
Burlington's off-price, opportunistic purchasing and 'treasure-hunt' assortment produces high inventory turnover and repeat shopping behavior. This durable model captures value-seeking shoppers, supports gross-margin spread economics, and provides resilience across consumer cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Improving margins and profitability
Reported margin expansion (TTM operating margin ~7.2%; gross margin ~42.8%) reflects supply-chain productivity, markdown discipline and SG&A leverage. Sustained margin improvement boosts durable earnings power, supports reinvestment and buybacks, and underpins multi-quarter EPS growth if execution continues.
Strong liquidity and scale investments
Robust liquidity and undrawn ABL provide financial flexibility to fund store growth (~110 net new stores planned), a large new Savannah DC and opportunistic buybacks. This balance of cash and credit supports strategic investments and operational scaling over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage (~3.9x debt/equity) constrains financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to an economic slowdown. High debt levels limit capacity for capital returns and raise refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks, making multi-month planning more exposed to macro shocks.
Free cash flow volatility
Sharp FCF decline and historical volatility reduce the reliability of internally funded growth, buybacks or debt reduction. Even with positive operating cash, inconsistent FCF (including a negative year in 2025) raises the risk that management must choose between competing uses of cash in coming quarters.
Tariff & assortment risks
Tariff-driven assortment gaps and continued tariff uncertainty can persistently constrain category availability and sales. Combined with deliberate inventory build (comps inventories +12%), this elevates markdown and stockout risk and can pressure sales and margins over the next several quarters.
Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)864.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.1
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth6.80%
EPS Growth20.46%
CountryUS
Employees17,057
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.89
Shares Outstanding62,927,006
10 Day Avg. Volume1,158,340
30 Day Avg. Volume864,237
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.54
Price to Book (P/B)10.50
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio110.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$369.20Price Target Upside18.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)11.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.70B
Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBurlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby, home, and beauty products. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name, 2 stores under the Cohoes Fashions name, and 1 store under the MJM Designer Shoes name in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Burlington Stores, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyBurlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores and online platforms. The company's revenue model is based on offering high-quality products at lower prices than traditional retailers, attracting a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include sales from clothing, footwear, home goods, and seasonal merchandise. Additionally, Burlington benefits from strong supplier relationships, enabling it to acquire products at lower costs, which enhances its profit margins. The company's focus on off-price retailing allows it to remain competitive, especially during economic downturns when consumers prioritize value. Seasonal promotions and sales events also contribute to its revenue, drawing in customers looking for bargains.
Burlington Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBurlington Stores Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call is positive: management reported strong Q4 and full-year profitability (operating margin expansion and double-digit EPS growth), robust liquidity, successful execution of elevation and cost actions in response to tariffs, and raised 2026 sales guidance with a bullish tone. Headwinds include tariff-driven assortment trade-offs that constrained sales growth in 2025, near-term margin pressure in Q1 2026 due to DC start-up and timing shifts, inventory build and weather disruption risks, and lingering tariff uncertainty. On balance the company demonstrated effective trade-offs to protect earnings and positioned for growth in 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Fourth Quarter Sales Growth
Total sales increased 11% in Q4 2025 (vs. 10% prior year) and comparable store sales grew 4% (well above guidance of 0%–2%), delivering a two-year comp stack of +10% for the quarter.
Q4 Margin and EPS Expansion
Q4 adjusted EBIT margin expanded by 100 basis points and adjusted EPS was $4.99, a 21% increase versus prior year, both above the high end of guidance.
Full Year 2025 Profitability Results
Fiscal 2025 delivered total sales growth of 9%, comparable store sales +2%, operating margin expansion of 80 basis points year-over-year, and EPS growth of 22%.
Gross Margin and Supply Chain Productivity
Q4 gross margin rate was 43.7%, up 80 basis points versus prior year (merchandise margin +60 bps; freight -20 bps). Product sourcing costs were $232M (vs. $217M in 2024) and levered ~30 bps as a percentage of sales due to supply chain productivity initiatives.
SG&A and Expense Leverage
Q4 adjusted SG&A costs were 40 basis points lower than prior year, driven primarily by store payroll and occupancy leverage on higher sales; full-year adjusted SG&A leveraged ~30 bps.
Strong Liquidity and Share Repurchases
Exited Q4 with approximately $2.2 billion in total liquidity (about $1.2B cash + $926M ABL availability, no borrowings). Repurchased $59M in Q4 and $251M for the full year, with $385M remaining authorization.
Store Growth and Real Estate Optimization
Opened 131 new stores in FY2025 (104 net new stores after relocations/closures), ended year with 1,212 stores; plan ~110 net new stores in 2026. Relocation/downsizing initiatives delivering occupancy cost savings and sales lifts.
Raised 2026 Sales Guidance and Bullish Commentary
Company raised full-year fiscal 2026 comp guidance to +1% to +3% and expects total sales growth of 8%–10% (assuming ~110 net new stores). Management characterized the outlook as 'bullish' and sees potential upside to guidance.
Strategic Execution: Elevation and Merchandising 2.0
Elevation strategy is driving higher-priced bucket growth and a mid-single-digit increase in average unit retail in Q4; rollout of Merchandising 2.0 and Store Experience 2.0 expected to enable localization and further sales/margin gains.
Supply Availability and New Distribution Center Opportunity
Management reports ample off-price merchandise availability to support growth. New Savannah DC (more than twice current largest DC) to go live in Q2 2026; expected to drive multi-year processing and freight efficiencies despite near-term start-up costs.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Assortment Gaps and Sales Trade-Offs
Introduction of tariffs in 2025 forced the company to pull receipts in tariff-impacted categories (notably home and holiday categories), creating assortment gaps that reduced sales upside in H2 2025 and constrained full-year comp performance.
Moderation in Comparable Sales vs. Prior Year
Full-year comps slowed to +2% in 2025 (from +4% in 2024) and total sales growth decelerated to +9% (from +11% in 2024), reflecting the deliberate mix shift to protect margins.
Near-Term Margin Pressure in Q1 2026
Q1 2026 adjusted EBIT margin is guided down 60–100 basis points versus prior year (EPS $1.60–$1.75 vs $1.67), due to markdown timing shifts, gross margin pressure from cycling tariff benefits, start-up costs for new DC, and lapping some one-time prior-year expense savings.
Inventory and Weather Disruption Risks
Comparable store inventories were up 12% at quarter end (deliberate stocking for anticipated demand), which could increase risk if sales momentum slows. A significant winter storm in January caused several hundred store closures and cost the quarter ~1 point of comp and several points for January.
Higher Product Sourcing and Depreciation Costs
Product sourcing costs rose to $232M (from $217M in 2024) and depreciation/amortization drove ~20 basis points of deleverage for the year; new DC start-up contributes near-term cost pressure.
Tariff Uncertainty Remains
Management noted ongoing uncertainty about tariffs; while the supply base has adjusted, tariffs could reintroduce margin or assortment challenges if conditions change.
Margin Expansion Pace Slowed vs. Prior Year
While FY2025 operating margin expanded +80 bps, that is less than the +100 bps achieved in FY2024, indicating a deceleration in margin expansion momentum year-over-year.
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 (excluding bankruptcy‑acquired lease costs of ~ $8M vs $35M in 2025) to total sales growth of 8–10% (assuming ~110 net new stores, ~60% opening in H1), comp store sales +1–3%, adjusted EBIT margin flat to +20 bps versus FY25, adjusted EPS $10.95–$11.45 (up ~8–13%), and capital expenditures (net of landlord allowances) of about $875M. For Q1 2026 (ex ~$6M of bankruptcy‑lease expense), they expect total sales +9–11%, comps +2–4%, adjusted EBIT margin down 60–100 bps (cited drivers: markdown timing, tariff cycling and DC start‑up costs) and adjusted EPS $1.60–$1.75 (versus $1.67 in Q1 2025). Company noted ending FY25 liquidity of ~$2.2B ($1.2B cash, $926M ABL availability), repurchases of $59M in Q4 ($251M for the year) with $385M remaining authorization, and a FY25 store base of 1,212 (131 openings, 18 relocations, 9 closings; net +104).Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is solid with improving operating margin (~7.2% TTM) and continued revenue growth, but financial risk remains elevated due to high leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.9x) and free-cash-flow volatility (TTM FCF down sharply and inconsistent historically).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows solid profitability with gross margin ~42.8% and net margin ~5.0%, and operating profit margin has improved versus prior years (mid-single digits in 2023/2024 to ~7.2% TTM). Revenue growth is positive in TTM (~3.4%) following strong multi-year expansion from 2022–2025. Main weakness is that growth has moderated recently versus the stronger 2024–2025 pace, and profitability is still meaningfully below the peak levels seen in 2022 at the operating line.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains the key constraint: debt-to-equity is high at ~3.9x in TTM (similar to 2025) and has been elevated for several years, which reduces financial flexibility in a retail downturn. A positive offset is that equity has rebuilt materially versus 2023–2024 levels, and returns on equity are strong in TTM (~39%), reflecting improved earnings power. Overall, the balance sheet is improving but still carries above-average leverage risk.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash generation is healthy in TTM (~$1.23B), but free cash flow weakened sharply (about $232M) and declined ~52% versus the prior period, signaling higher reinvestment and/or working-capital pressure. Cash conversion is mixed: free cash flow is positive and covers a majority of net income in TTM (~58%), but the business has shown volatility (including negative free cash flow in 2025). The profile is acceptable, but not consistently strong.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.57B | 10.63B | 9.72B | 8.69B | 9.31B |
| Gross Profit | 4.66B | 4.60B | 4.13B | 3.52B | 3.88B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 1.05B | 847.36M | 650.92M | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 610.15M | 503.64M | 339.65M | 230.12M | 408.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.92B | 8.77B | 7.71B | 7.27B | 7.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.23B | 994.70M | 925.36M | 872.62M | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 6.01B | 5.37B | 4.80B | 4.70B | 4.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.11B | 7.40B | 6.71B | 6.47B | 6.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.81B | 1.37B | 996.93M | 794.90M | 760.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.59M | -28.61M | 351.45M | 145.28M | 480.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.23B | 863.38M | 868.74M | 596.38M | 833.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -882.25M | -503.75M | -423.14M | -344.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 61.49M | 88.22M | -318.84M | -391.71M | -777.96M |
Burlington Stores Technical Analysis
Positive
311.99
Price Trends
304.28
Positive
289.71
Positive
276.59
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Positive
54.87
Neutral
64.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 311.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 305.71, above the 50-day MA of 304.28, and above the 200-day MA of 276.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BURL.
Burlington Stores Risk Analysis
Burlington Stores disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burlington Stores Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $68.31B | 28.12 | 36.70% | 0.90% | 3.71% | 0.65% | |
76 Outperform | $172.10B | 30.68 | 59.53% | 1.07% | 4.53% | 6.52% | |
68 Neutral | $5.68B | 13.74 | 17.66% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
64 Neutral | $8.91B | 12.79 | 22.98% | 2.45% | 0.29% | 3.65% | |
62 Neutral | $19.46B | 31.09 | 39.79% | ― | 6.80% | 20.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $2.92B | 20.90 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BURL
Burlington Stores
310.38
76.42
32.66%
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47.44%
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TJX
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154.98
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URBN
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29.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.