BRC (BRCC) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

305 Followers

Top Page

BRC

(NYSE:BRCC)

Select Model

Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:45Neutral

Price Target:

$0.79

▲(0.64% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, margin compression, and negative 2025 operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by improved leverage and constructive 2026 guidance targeting higher EBITDA and a return to cash-flow generation, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no indicated dividend.

Positive Factors

Packaged coffee growth

Sustained, outsized packaged-coffee growth and share gains versus the category indicate durable brand momentum and pricing power in grocery. Consistent unit and velocity expansion supports recurring retail reorder economics, higher shelf productivity and a stronger long-term revenue base.

Distribution expansion

Meaningful ACV gains and expanded SKUs per retailer create structural advantages: broader national placement reduces single-account risk, improves per-SKU productivity, and raises switching costs for retailers. This scale supports steady revenue growth and margin leverage over multiple quarters.

Improved leverage & liquidity

A materially lower debt load and healthy liquidity position provide runway to execute distribution and product initiatives while absorbing near-term cost shocks. Improved capital flexibility reduces refinancing risk and supports investment in growth and margin recovery initiatives.

Negative Factors

Gross margin compression

Large commodity- and tariff-driven margin erosion is a structural headwind: prolonged higher Arabica prices and tariff pass-through timing can compress gross margins, limit operating leverage, and require sustained pricing, mix, or cost programs to restore historically stronger margins.

Inconsistent cash generation

Volatile cash flow undermines self-funding and increases reliance on external capital. A return to negative OCF and FCF raises execution and liquidity risk if losses or working-capital needs persist, constraining ability to invest in growth or absorb future cost shocks.

Persistent unprofitability

Chronic losses at scale limit shareholder returns and reduce financial resilience. Without sustained margin recovery and consistent profitability, the company may face restricted reinvestment capacity and ongoing dependence on capital markets to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

BRC (BRCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$200.30M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)769.94K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.55

Revenue Growth-3.42%

EPS Growth-85.49%

CountryUS

Employees551

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength42

IndustryPackaged Foods

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.03

Shares Outstanding114,647,010

10 Day Avg. Volume553,469

30 Day Avg. Volume769,942

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.02

Price to Book (P/B)2.31

Price to Sales (P/S)0.27

P/FCF Ratio-7.85

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.88

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-17.33

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.50

Price Target Upside220.51% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02

Revenue Forecast (FY)$428.24M

BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBRC Inc., through its subsidiaries, purchases, roasts, and sells coffee, coffee accessories, and branded apparel. The company also produces media content; podcasts; and digital and print journals, as well as sells coffee brewing equipment, and outdoor and lifestyle gear. It supports active military, veterans, and first responders. The company offers its products through convenience, grocery, drug, and mass merchandise stores; outdoor, do it yourself, and lifestyle retailers; and company operated and franchised Black Rifle Coffee retail coffee shop locations, as well as through e-commerce. BRC Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in Salt Lake City, Utah.

How the Company Makes MoneyBRC generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by selling its coffee products directly to consumers via its e-commerce platform and through retail partnerships. The company offers subscriptions for regular deliveries, which provides a steady income stream. Additionally, BRC has established partnerships with various military organizations and events, allowing for promotional collaborations that further enhance brand visibility and sales. The brand's focus on community engagement and veteran support also fosters customer loyalty, driving repeat purchases and enhancing overall revenue.

BRC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business units, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where strategic focus may be needed.

Chart InsightsBlack Rifle Coffee's wholesale segment shows robust growth, with a notable increase in recent quarters, aligning with a 5% growth in Q3 2025. However, DTC sales are declining, down 4% year-over-year, despite improvements in customer experience. The earnings call highlights strong retail expansion and sales growth, but also notes challenges like gross margin decline due to inflation and tariffs. The company's cautious outlook for 2025, aiming for the lower end of guidance, reflects these pressures, yet they remain optimistic about long-term revenue growth.

Data provided by:

The Fly

BRC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The call balanced meaningful operating momentum—particularly in packaged coffee growth, distribution expansion, wholesale strength, debt reduction and clear 2026 guidance—with significant near-term margin pressure and a materially lower 2025 EBITDA driven by coffee cost inflation, tariffs and one-time charges. Management highlighted operational improvements (Q4 EBITDA nearly flat) and a path to margin recovery, but the 2025 profitability impact and channel pressure in RTD/C-stores are notable risks.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Packaged Coffee Strong Growth and Market Share Gains

Packaged coffee grew 31.1% for the year and 34% in the fourth quarter versus ~13% category growth; units were up more than 22% in 2025. National market share reached 3.3% in bagged coffee (up 60 basis points year-over-year) and 2.2% in pods (up 40 basis points). Velocity in grocery reached parity with the overall bagged coffee category despite pricing approximately 40% above the category average.

Distribution Expansion and Shelf Productivity

Distribution (ACV) increased nearly 8 points in 2025 to 54.9% for packaged coffee; on average grocers added two incremental BRC Inc. SKUs in 2025 and the company has nearly tripled shelf presence since entering grocery three years ago. Land-and-expand execution drove higher per-SKU productivity and allowed broader assortments.

Wholesale and Channel Performance

Wholesale segment revenue rose 5% year-over-year (13% excluding nonrecurring items). Sales to mass merchants increased double digits and grocery sales more than doubled. Ready-to-drink (RTD) ACV expanded 10 points to 55.9% and outperformed the category in grocery, mass and dollar channels for the full year.

Direct-to-Consumer Stabilization and Q4 Recovery

Direct-to-consumer stabilized in 2025 and returned to growth in Q4; DTC revenue increased 7% in the fourth quarter. For the full year DTC declined 5% but was slightly positive when excluding a 2024 loyalty benefit.

Energy Launch Distribution Progress

BRC Inc. Energy reached approximately 22% ACV across nearly 20,000 retail doors in its launch year, with plans to prioritize markets and channels that drive velocity and returns in 2026.

Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity

Completed an equity offering and repaid the asset-based lending facility, reducing total debt by more than $30,000,000 in 2025. Ended the year with $39,000,000 of debt (~1.8x net debt to 2025 adjusted EBITDA; ~1.4x adjusted EBITDA based on 2026 guidance) and over $50,000,000 of total liquidity.

Forward-Looking Financial Guidance

Company expects at least 7% revenue growth in 2026 to approximately $425,000,000 and at least 30% EBITDA growth vs $21,400,000 in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue guidance is at least 10% growth year-over-year. Gross margins are expected in a 33%–36% range for 2026 (34.6% in 2025).

Social Impact Achievements

Exceeded a pledge to eliminate $25,000,000 in medical debt for veterans, instead wiping out more than $34,000,000 and helping approximately 15,000 veterans. Also provided food and other support to military families and veteran organizations.

Negative Updates

Significant Gross Margin Compression

Gross margins declined 650 basis points for the full year and 610 basis points in the fourth quarter (Q4 gross margin 32.1%). Coffee inflation and tariffs were the largest headwinds, contributing roughly 420 basis points of margin pressure in Q4 and ~350 basis points for the full year.

Large Decline in EBITDA for 2025

Adjusted EBITDA declined more than 40% for the full year 2025. Although Q4 EBITDA decline was limited to ~2%, the full-year profitability impact was material.

Elevated Coffee Costs and Inventory/Tariff Headwinds

Arabica coffee prices nearly doubled from 2024 to 2025 (peaked near $3.75/lb in early January), and although prices have moderated into the high $2 range, the company expects residual tariff impacts as inventory produced under previous tariff rates flows through COGS in 2026.

Direct-to-Consumer Annual Decline

Direct-to-consumer declined 5% for the year (only slightly positive when excluding a 2024 loyalty benefit). While Q4 improved, DTC remains a weaker contributor across the full year.

Softness in Convenience Channel for RTD

Ready-to-drink category remained under pressure in convenience stores (which represent over half of tracked RTD sales); c-store softness negatively impacted RTD performance and contributed to Q4 weakness in that channel.

One-Time Costs and Noncash Charges Pressuring Margins

One-time items—including startup costs for onboarding a new DTC fulfillment provider and a noncash impairment of coffee extract due to a formulation change—pressured margins by approximately 270 basis points in Q4.

Short-Term Cash Flow and Operating Uses

Cash used in operating activities was approximately $10,000,000 in 2025, with roughly $9,000,000 attributable to working capital normalization. The company does not expect working capital to be a comparable use of cash in 2026, but the 2025 cash usage was notable.

Regulatory/Listing Risk Notice

Received a notice from the New York Stock Exchange regarding the minimum price requirement; while there is no immediate operational impact, the company faces a standard cure period and must regain compliance.

Company Guidance

Management guided 2026 revenue of at least +7% to approximately $425,000,000 (with Q1 growth of at least +10%), full‑year gross margins of 33%–36% (versus 34.6% in 2025), and at least 30% EBITDA growth versus 2025’s $21.4M (implying EBITDA ≥ ~$27.8M); they expect first‑half EBITDA to represent roughly one quarter to one third of the full year (vs. ~15% in 1H/2025) with EBITDA second‑half weighted, operating expenses to decline year‑over‑year (marketing to grow in line with sales, labor muted), capex roughly in line with the prior year, and to be cash‑flow generative after 2025 operating cash use of ~ $10M (≈ $9M due to working‑capital normalization). Balance‑sheet metrics cited include ~$39M debt outstanding (down >$30M in 2025), total liquidity >$50M, and net‑debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~1.8x (≈1.4x on 2026 guidance). The outlook is grounded in confirmed distribution gains, pricing, productivity and mix improvements and does not assume incremental, unconfirmed distribution wins, while acknowledging residual coffee cost and tariff headwinds early in 2026.

BRC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has scaled over multiple years and leverage improved materially with a sharp debt reduction, but profitability and cash consistency remain weak. 2025 saw wider net losses, gross margin compression (~41% to ~35%), and operating/free cash flow turning negative again, keeping overall financial quality below average despite balance-sheet progress.

Income Statement

Negative

Revenue scaled materially over the period (from $164M in 2020 to $398M in 2025), but growth has been volatile and recently decelerated (down slightly in 2024 before re-accelerating in 2025). Profitability remains the core issue: net income has been negative in five of the last six annual periods, with 2025 posting a wider net loss (~-8.1% margin) versus near-breakeven in 2024. Gross margin has also compressed meaningfully from 2024 to 2025 (~41% to ~35%), indicating weaker pricing/mix or higher input costs, and operating results have swung back to losses in 2025 after a brief improvement in 2024.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Leverage has improved sharply: total debt fell to ~$30M in 2025 from ~$97M in 2024 and ~$109M in 2023, bringing debt relative to equity down to ~0.65x in 2025 from very elevated levels in 2023–2024 (~7–8x). That said, the equity base is still modest versus the asset base (~$46M equity on ~$209M assets in 2025), and returns to shareholders remain negative due to ongoing losses (negative return on equity in 2022–2025). Overall, the balance sheet trajectory is improving, but profitability needs to stabilize to make the capital structure truly resilient.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash generation is inconsistent and currently weak. After positive operating cash flow in 2024 (~$11.3M), 2025 flipped back to negative (~-$9.8M), and free cash flow was also negative in 2025 (~-$13.5M). The company has improved substantially versus the very large cash burn in 2022 (operating cash flow of about -$116M), but the renewed cash outflow in 2025 raises funding and execution risk if losses persist. Free cash flow has been highly volatile year-to-year, limiting confidence in self-funding operations.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	398.26M	391.49M	395.62M	301.31M	233.10M
Gross Profit	137.95M	161.17M	125.45M	99.18M	89.69M
EBITDA	-12.40M	13.90M	-42.94M	-64.11M	-9.48M
Net Income	-32.23M	-2.95M	-16.75M	-82.91M	-13.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	209.24M	227.38M	235.78M	225.33M	87.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.33M	6.81M	12.45M	38.99M	18.33M
Total Debt	29.72M	96.70M	109.24M	70.30M	35.00M
Total Liabilities	141.23M	177.89M	189.27M	129.40M	236.57M
Stockholders Equity	45.65M	13.17M	13.27M	25.80M	-149.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.47M	2.64M	-52.19M	-146.59M	-26.98M
Operating Cash Flow	-9.81M	11.31M	-24.97M	-116.19M	-7.69M
Investing Cash Flow	1.42M	-7.71M	-21.51M	-30.40M	-19.29M
Financing Cash Flow	5.91M	-10.70M	21.40M	167.25M	9.68M

BRC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price0.78

Price Trends

50DMA

0.90

Negative

100DMA

1.09

Negative

200DMA

1.35

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.05

Negative

RSI

51.68

Neutral

STOCH

69.60

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.71, below the 50-day MA of 0.90, and below the 200-day MA of 1.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BRCC.

BRC Risk Analysis

BRC disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BRC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HLF	63 Neutral	$1.83B	5.80	―	―	-0.78%	265.56%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
LSF	52 Neutral	$28.26M	-15.26	-14.63%	―	17.73%	-34.71%
JVA	49 Neutral	$17.64M	16.60	5.22%	―	17.92%	64.96%
WEST	49 Neutral	$398.92M	―	-27.64%	―	28.89%	-13.96%
BRCC	45 Neutral	$200.30M	-3.28	-35.78%	―	-3.42%	-85.49%
FARM	44 Neutral	$26.94M	-1.63	-48.26%	―	-1.58%	-78.08%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BRCC

BRC

0.76

-1.36

-64.06%

JVA

Coffee Holding Co

3.19

-4.70

-59.56%

FARM

Farmer Brothers Company

1.24

-1.39

-52.85%

HLF

Herbalife

16.18

7.36

83.45%

LSF

Laird Superfood

2.55

-2.97

-53.80%

WEST

Westrock Coffee

3.92

-2.79

-41.58%

BRC Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

BRC Faces NYSE Non-Compliance Notice on Share Price

Negative

Feb 13, 2026

On February 11, 2026, BRC Inc., which operates as Black Rifle Coffee Company, was notified by the New York Stock Exchange that the average closing price of its Class A common stock had fallen below the $1.00 minimum over the preceding 30 trading days, putting the company out of compliance with NYSE listing standards. While the notice raises the risk of eventual delisting if the deficiency is not cured, the company’s shares remain listed, its operations and financial condition are unchanged, and it has six months to restore compliance, during which management plans to evaluate and pursue options it considers in shareholders’ best interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Hold with a $0.77 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Black Rifle Coffee Affirms 2025 Outlook, Notes Impairment Charge

Positive

Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Black Rifle Coffee Company announced preliminary, unaudited results for its fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, indicating it expects to meet its prior guidance of at least $395 million in revenue and at least $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA. The company expects to record a non-cash impairment charge of approximately $1.4 million tied to raw materials made unusable by a formulation change, which is projected to trim fiscal 2025 gross margin to about 34.5%–34.7% but does not reflect underlying consumer demand or operating performance. Also on January 13, 2026, the company presented at the 28th Annual ICR Conference, highlighting its multi-year growth opportunities in large beverage categories and its profitability goals, underscoring a focus on scaling its brand and improving financial performance despite the modest margin impact from the impairment.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Sell with a $0.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 04, 2026