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BRC (BRCC)
NYSE:BRCC
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BRC
(NYSE:BRCC)
57Neutral
Positive Factors
Earnings
Fourth-quarter EBITDA of $10 million were above our estimate of $7 million.
Operating Performance
The operating expense ratio was better than the forecast.
Negative Factors
Financial Guidance
Management provided initial 2025 EBITDA guidance below our forecast.
Sales Performance
Headline wholesale sales fell 9%.
BRC (BRCC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$433.38M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)678.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth-1.04%
EPS Growth86.17%
CountryUS
Employees551
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength63
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding78,506,520
10 Day Avg. Volume528,344
30 Day Avg. Volume678,949
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.19
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)53.90
P/FCF Ratio231.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.17Price Target Upside58.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlack Rifle Coffee Company (BRCC) is a veteran-owned coffee company that specializes in premium, small-batch coffee products. Founded by former members of the military, BRCC aims to provide high-quality coffee to consumers while supporting the veteran community. The company's product line includes a range of coffee roasts, K-Cups, and instant coffee options, as well as branded merchandise such as apparel and mugs. BRCC is known for its strong brand identity that resonates with military personnel, veterans, and their supporters.
How the Company Makes MoneyBRCC generates revenue primarily through the direct sale of coffee products and merchandise via its online platform and retail partnerships. The company capitalizes on its strong brand identity by offering subscription services, where customers can receive regular shipments of their favorite coffee blends. Additionally, BRCC has expanded its retail presence by opening physical coffee shops in select locations. The company's earnings are further bolstered by its community engagement initiatives and collaborations with veteran-focused charities, which enhance its brand loyalty and customer base.
BRC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
BRC's financial performance shows operational improvement with better margins and cash flow management. However, profitability challenges persist, with negative net profit margins and high leverage on the balance sheet.Income Statement
The company has shown a significant improvement in gross profit margin over the years, with a 41.17% margin in 2024 compared to 30.76% in 2020. However, net profit margins remain negative, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth has been volatile, showing a decline of 1.05% from 2023 to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved significantly in 2024 compared to previous years, but still reflect operational challenges.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, with total debt surpassing stockholders' equity, presenting potential financial risk. The equity ratio is low due to small equity compared to total assets. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The company's financial stability is a concern, with high leverage impacting financial flexibility.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow metrics show improvement, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio reflects operational cash generation despite net losses. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, indicating better cash management compared to previous years. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for efficiency improvements.65
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 391.49M | 395.62M | 301.31M | 233.10M | 163.91M | Gross Profit |
| 161.17M | 125.45M | 99.18M | 89.69M | 69.41M | EBIT |
| 3.85M | -50.21M | -67.76M | -11.58M | 5.78M | EBITDA |
| 3.85M | -42.94M | -64.11M | -9.48M | 7.02M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -2.95M | -16.75M | -82.91M | -13.85M | 4.32M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 6.81M | 12.45M | 38.99M | 18.33M | 35.23M | Total Assets |
| 227.38M | 235.78M | 225.33M | 87.08M | 72.54M | Total Debt |
| 33.67M | 109.24M | 70.30M | 35.00M | 14.23M | Net Debt |
| 26.86M | 96.79M | 31.31M | 16.67M | -21.00M | Total Liabilities |
| 177.89M | 189.27M | 129.40M | 236.57M | 175.42M | Stockholders Equity |
| 13.17M | 13.27M | 25.80M | -149.49M | -102.88M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 2.64M | -52.19M | -146.59M | -26.98M | 1.79M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 11.31M | -24.97M | -116.19M | -7.69M | 11.55M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -7.71M | -21.51M | -30.40M | -19.29M | -9.76M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -10.70M | 21.40M | 167.25M | 9.68M | 28.81M |
BRC Technical Analysis
Negative
2.00
Price Trends
2.37
Negative
2.69
Negative
3.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
37.33
Neutral
24.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.10, below the 50-day MA of 2.37, and below the 200-day MA of 3.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRCC.
BRC Risk Analysis
BRC disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BRC Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $20.72M | 6.09 | 11.70% | ― | 15.24% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $100.25B | 28.52 | -47.07% | 2.67% | -1.48% | -17.32% | |
61 Neutral | $4.72B | 17.64 | -3.07% | 10.89% | 5.99% | -21.86% | |
57 Neutral | $433.38M | ― | -22.32% | ― | -1.04% | 86.17% | |
57 Neutral | $8.50B | 23.36 | 21.63% | 2.43% | -0.33% | -67.09% | |
54 Neutral | $1.33B | 47.59 | 1.67% | ― | -4.59% | -42.81% | |
48 Neutral | $43.78M | ― | -23.75% | ― | -9.51% | 83.29% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BRCC
BRC
2.00
-2.76
-57.98%
JVA
Coffee Holding Co
3.22
1.74
117.57%
FARM
Farmer Brothers Company
1.91
-1.45
-43.15%
SBUX
Starbucks
82.10
-2.92
-3.43%
THS
TreeHouse Foods
25.90
-11.48
-30.71%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
59.00
-17.17
-22.54%
BRC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 3, 2025 | % Change Since: -22.18% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with significant achievements in operational efficiency, product launch, and market share gains countered by challenges in revenue growth and direct-to-consumer performance. The growth in Adjusted EBITDA and market expansion highlights strong financial health, but the overall revenue decline and cost pressures from green coffee inflation present notable concerns.Highlights
Significant Growth in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA tripled in 2024, demonstrating strong financial performance and operational efficiency improvements.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin improved by 950 basis points to 41.2% in 2024, driven by supply chain productivity and reduced transformation costs.
Distribution Growth and Market Share Gains
Black Rifle Coffee's distribution in packaged coffee at grocery increased by 28 points to 45% ACV over the year, with total distribution reaching 49% by Q4.
Energy Drink Launch
Black Rifle Energy launched with a reach of 17% ACV within the first month, with plans for significant growth in 2025 supported by a partnership with Keurig Dr Pepper.
Ready-to-Drink Coffee Market Position
Black Rifle Coffee became the #3 brand in the Ready-to-Drink coffee category, growing sales by 0.5% despite an overall category decline.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline
Overall revenue declined by 1% in 2024 compared to 2023, with specific declines in Outpost and direct-to-consumer segments.
Direct-to-Consumer Segment Challenges
The direct-to-consumer segment saw a 14% revenue decline in 2024, impacted by shifting consumer preferences and reduced marketing focus.
Green Coffee Inflation Impact
Green coffee input costs are expected to be 35% higher in 2025, impacting gross margin by 2.5 percentage points.
Fourth Quarter Revenue Decline
Fourth quarter revenue declined by 12% year-over-year, primarily due to RTD inventory depletion and softness in the coffee and RTD categories.
Company Guidance
During the Black Rifle Coffee Company's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting a focus on brand awareness, distribution expansion, and efficient capital deployment. For 2024, Black Rifle reported significant improvements, with adjusted EBITDA tripling and gross margin improving by 9.5 percentage points. Distribution growth was notable, with ACV in packaged coffee at grocery increasing by 28 points to 45%. Looking ahead, the company expects 2025 revenue to range between $395 million and $425 million, with gross margins between 37% to 39%, partially impacted by a 2.5 percentage point headwind from green coffee inflation. They also anticipate adjusted EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million. The Energy launch, expected to significantly contribute to growth, already achieved a 17% ACV and aims for a 20% to 30% ACV by year-end. The company’s wholesale segment is anticipated to drive growth, with a focus on expanding shelf presence and improving operational efficiencies.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.