BNP Paribas (BNPQY) AI Stock Analysis

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BNP Paribas

(OTC:BNPQY)

78Outperform

BNP Paribas demonstrates a robust financial position with strong earnings growth and effective cost management. The stock is technically strong and undervalued, providing a favorable investment opportunity. However, the bank must address operational challenges and navigate economic and regulatory uncertainties to maintain growth momentum.

BNP Paribas (BNPQY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$79.07B

Dividend Yield5.11%

Average Volume (3M)23.90K

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth5.70%

EPS Growth11.52%

CountryUS

Employees178,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength79

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)5.17

Shares Outstanding2,261,621,300

10 Day Avg. Volume55,550

30 Day Avg. Volume23,900

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.59

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.39

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBNP Paribas (BNPQY) is a leading global financial services company headquartered in Paris, France. It operates in three primary business sectors: Retail Banking, Investment Solutions, and Corporate & Institutional Banking. The company provides a wide range of financial products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, asset management, and securities services. With a strong international presence, BNP Paribas serves clients across Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and other regions.

How the Company Makes MoneyBNP Paribas generates revenue through a diverse range of financial services. In Retail Banking, the company earns income from interest on loans, mortgages, and credit products provided to individuals and small businesses, as well as fees from account management, transactions, and other banking services. In Investment Solutions, BNP Paribas makes money through asset management fees, wealth management advisory services, and insurance products. The Corporate & Institutional Banking division generates significant revenue through underwriting, advisory services, trading in securities and derivatives, and corporate lending. Additionally, BNP Paribas benefits from strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and a global network that enhances its ability to offer comprehensive financial solutions to multinational corporations and institutional clients.

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BNP Paribas shows strong equity and profitability with high return on equity and net profit margin. However, it faces operational challenges with volatile revenues and negative cash flows. The company must stabilize cash flows and improve operational efficiency to mitigate high leverage risks typical in banking.

Income Statement

Positive

BNP Paribas shows a volatile revenue trend with a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023. The net profit margin is relatively high, showcasing effective cost management despite the absence of EBIT and EBITDA metrics. However, the fluctuating revenue growth rates and lack of EBIT margins indicate potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a strong equity position with a robust equity ratio, supported by significant cash reserves and a manageable level of debt. The improving return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds, although the overall high liabilities relative to total assets highlight leverage risks typical in the banking industry.

Cash Flow

Positive

BNP Paribas experiences negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. However, there is a substantial free cash flow improvement from 2023 to 2024, reflecting a positive trajectory in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational inefficiencies need addressing.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
98.45B	65.87B	43.03B	94.64B	107.81B	87.19B
	Gross Profit
98.45B	65.87B	138.16B	94.64B	107.81B	87.19B
	EBIT
6.53B	0.00	40.20B	12.90B	12.17B	8.91B
	EBITDA
809.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.87B	11.69B	10.97B	9.85B	9.49B	7.07B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
296.61B	308.05B	408.22B	330.49B	358.04B	317.08B
	Total Assets
2.59T	2.70T	2.59T	2.67T	2.63T	2.49T
	Total Debt
673.44B	0.00	673.44B	625.71B	718.22B	687.29B
	Net Debt
265.22B	-308.05B	-408.22B	151.66B	233.95B	274.71B
	Total Liabilities
2.46T	2.57T	2.46T	2.55T	2.52T	2.38T
	Stockholders Equity
123.74B	128.14B	123.74B	109.99B	108.68B	102.85B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
26.10B	-99.51B	-36.46B	21.28B	26.18B	4.43B
	Operating Cash Flow
28.53B	-97.38B	-34.24B	23.81B	27.84B	5.21B
	Investing Cash Flow
-58.56B	-180.00M	7.30B	-78.81B	13.35B	133.27B
	Financing Cash Flow
8.40B	-6.42B	-4.68B	9.25B	14.52B	18.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price35.20

Price Trends

50DMA

38.83

Negative

100DMA

34.90

Positive

200DMA

34.49

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.32

Positive

RSI

58.15

Neutral

STOCH

11.88

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNPQY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.27, below the 50-day MA of 38.83, and above the 200-day MA of 34.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BNPQY.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BNPQY	78 Outperform	$79.07B	6.80	9.69%	5.11%	5.70%	11.52%
IBN	77 Outperform	$107.42B	18.70	18.52%	0.65%	24.97%	13.74%
ITUB	76 Outperform	$55.22B	8.56	20.84%	7.08%	-7.01%	15.18%
LYG	76 Outperform	$49.71B	11.24	9.95%	4.03%	36.29%	-19.79%
PNC	73 Outperform	$63.41B	11.66	11.10%	4.24%	7.24%	7.51%
MFG	66 Neutral	$54.30B	10.38	8.56%	2.65%	13.63%	27.77%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$13.44B	9.41	9.19%	4.92%	16.30%	-8.66%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BNPQY

BNP Paribas

35.20

1.80

5.39%

IBN

Icici Bank

30.80

4.55

17.33%

ITUB

Itau Unibanco

5.37

-0.08

-1.47%

LYG

Lloyds Banking

3.58

1.12

45.53%

MFG

Mizuho Financial

4.80

0.82

20.60%

PNC

PNC Financial

152.16

3.56

2.40%

BNP Paribas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 4, 2025 | % Change Since: 6.12% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong earnings growth and effective cost management offset by significant regulatory impacts, challenges in personal finance, and a downward revision of RoTE targets due to economic headwinds. Despite the robust financial structure and investments in technology, the uncertainties in the regulatory environment and economic outlook cast a shadow on future projections.

Highlights

Strong Earnings Growth

BNP Paribas delivered an 18% increase in distributable earnings per share in 2023 compared to 2022. Distributable net income stood at EUR 11.2 billion, up 10.2% from 2022.

Cost Management Success

Operating expenses decreased by 1% in 2023, resulting in a positive jaws effect. The cost of risk was low, at 32 basis points.

CIB Record Performance

Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) revenues reached a record level of EUR 16.5 billion in 2023, up 2% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis.

Solid Financial Structure

BNP Paribas maintains a strong CET1 ratio at 13.2%, well above the target of 12%, with liquidity reserves at nearly EUR 0.5 billion.

Technology and AI Investments

Continued investment in technology and AI is expected to drive future growth and operational efficiency.

Lowlights

Impact of Regulatory Changes

The end of ECB remuneration of minimum reserves and new Belgium tax have negatively impacted the outlook, affecting projected RoTE for 2025.

Challenges in Personal Finance

Personal finance and real estate segments were significantly affected by the current economic cycle, delaying expected rebounds to 2026.

Q4 Performance Drag

The fourth quarter was challenging with negative one-off items of EUR 933 million, including extraordinary provisions for litigations.

Reduced Return on Tangible Equity Target

The RoTE target for 2025 was adjusted to 11.5%-12%, down from the previous guidance, due to economic headwinds and regulatory impacts.

Company Guidance

In the Q4 2023 earnings call for BNP Paribas, the guidance provided included a number of key metrics and expectations for the coming years. The bank reported an 18% increase in distributable earnings per share for 2023, with distributable net income reaching EUR 11.2 billion, a 10.2% rise compared to 2022. Operating expenses decreased by 1%, resulting in a positive jaws effect, while the cost of risk was low at 32 basis points. The bank is in the process of redeploying capital from the sale of Bank of the West, with EUR 3 billion already redeployed and 70 basis points remaining. The CET1 ratio stood at 13.2%, with a trajectory to meet CRR 3 requirements by 2025. Looking forward, BNP Paribas aims for a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 11.5% to 12% by 2025, translating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in net income of approximately 8%. The bank has reaffirmed its commitment to a 60% shareholder return policy and proposed a EUR 4.6 dividend per share, alongside a EUR 1.05 billion share buyback program. Despite economic uncertainties, the bank is confident in its ability to grow faster than the underlying economy, driven by its diversified and integrated business model.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.