Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.10B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 606.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 10.59%
• EPS Growth: 75.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 3.23
• Shares Outstanding: 32,111,076
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 454,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 606,569
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.80
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 10.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $53.00
• Price Target Upside: 54.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Blue Bird's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance, solid earnings potential, and promising strategic initiatives in the EV market. Despite technical indicators showing a bearish trend, the company's valuation is attractive, and recent corporate events suggest positive future prospects. Challenges related to federal funding and tariffs remain, but the company's resilience and strategic focus could mitigate these risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Blue Bird beat and raised for a seventh consecutive quarter as revamped operations continue to drive performance, backed by uniquely well positioned products.

Growth Potential

Industry unit recovery and the potential of EV school buses are positive factors supporting the company's growth thesis.

Valuation

BLBD is trading at approximately 6x consensus future adjusted EBITDA estimates, indicating a potential undervaluation.

Negative Factors

Government Funding

The status of federal subsidies for EV school buses continues to be an overhang.

Market Uncertainty

Potential for disruption to deliveries (and facility build outs) remains, reflecting increased uncertainty around future EV program funding.

Valuation Concerns

Concerns around funding for EV school buses continue to weigh on the stock, with Blue Bird trading at a historically low valuation.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of school buses and associated parts and services. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and direct sale of new school buses to school districts and transportation contractors. Additionally, Blue Bird offers aftermarket parts and services, which provide ongoing support and maintenance for their buses, further contributing to their revenue. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with engine and component suppliers, allowing them to offer a range of fuel options and configurations, appealing to environmentally conscious customers and those looking for cost-effective transportation solutions. Blue Bird's focus on innovation, particularly in alternative fuels, positions them to capitalize on trends toward sustainability and cleaner transportation solutions, enhancing their earnings potential.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird has demonstrated significant financial improvement, with strong revenue and profit growth, improved margins, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is solid with a decrease in leverage and high return on equity. While the company shows financial strength, maintaining prudence in debt management is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Blue Bird shows a robust revenue growth trajectory with substantial improvements in profitability. The gross profit margin is healthy at 18.81% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Net profit margin has significantly improved to 8.05%, indicating effective cost management. Revenue growth rate from 2023 to TTM is impressive at 18.62%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have strengthened, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet exhibits a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 33.57% for TTM. Debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting reduced leverage risk. Return on equity is strong at 60.18%, showcasing high profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the company needs to maintain a cautious approach to debt management to sustain its financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are robust, with free cash flow showing notable growth of 12.44% from 2023 to TTM. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.27, indicating solid cash generation relative to net earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable at 1.16, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash flow.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.34B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M	879.22M
	Gross Profit
252.62M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M	96.20M
	EBIT
134.42M	139.33M	51.66M	-40.70M	6.52M	21.99M
	EBITDA
153.83M	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M	37.14M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
108.12M	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K	8.97M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
136.12M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M	44.51M
	Total Assets
535.22M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M	317.42M
	Total Debt
94.27M	95.97M	131.91M	172.33M	215.29M	181.26M
	Net Debt
-41.85M	-31.71M	52.93M	161.85M	203.58M	136.76M
	Total Liabilities
355.52M	365.33M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M	370.64M
	Stockholders Equity
179.71M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M	-53.23M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
124.95M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M	-15.51M
	Operating Cash Flow
137.31M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M	3.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.00M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M	-18.80M
	Financing Cash Flow
-60.48M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M	-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 34.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.23, below the 50-day MA of 36.19, and below the 200-day MA of 43.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	76 Outperform	$1.10B	10.58	84.71%	―	10.59%	75.70%
CMI	73 Outperform	$45.49B	11.67	41.27%	2.16%	0.14%	444.36%
OSK	68 Neutral	$6.33B	9.58	17.34%	1.91%	11.36%	13.78%
PCAR	66 Neutral	$52.09B	12.48	24.93%	1.24%	-4.29%	-9.76%
THO	62 Neutral	$4.26B	21.26	5.13%	2.45%	-8.45%	-25.41%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$12.68B	11.14	0.97%	3.72%	1.33%	-21.21%
NAVI	55 Neutral	$1.34B	11.12	4.85%	4.88%	-14.40%	-34.34%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Exceeds Q1 Expectations with Strong EV Focus

Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 first quarter results, beating the guidance with net sales of $314 million and a GAAP net income of $29 million. The company sold 2,130 buses and reported an adjusted EBITDA of $46 million, reaffirming its full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA at $200 million with a 14% margin, which would be a record. Despite a decrease in net sales by $3.8 million from the previous year, the company maintained strong earnings power, driven by expanding leadership in alternative-powered buses and a robust order backlog of nearly 4,400 units. Blue Bird’s strategic focus on electric vehicles is supported by significant growth in EV orders, aligning with their EV sales target for 2025.

Blue Bird Revises Executive Compensation Packages for 2025

On January 28, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation’s Compensation Committee made significant changes to the compensation packages for key executives. The Committee increased CFO Razvan Radulescu’s annual base salary to $600,000 and raised his long-term equity incentive plan target bonus to 150% of his salary. For retiring CEO Phil Horlock, the Committee approved a compensation package that includes immediate vesting of unvested equity awards and a pro-rated Management Incentive Plan bonus, accounting for 50% of his fiscal 2025 target bonus, amounting to $750,000. The market value of Horlock’s vested RSUs is projected at $7,083,714, based on the stock price as of January 30, 2025. Horlock will continue as a Class III Director on the Board.

Blue Bird Announces New CEO Amid Strategic Shift

On January 21, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced the appointment of John Wyskiel as the new President and CEO, effective February 17, 2025, succeeding Phil Horlock who will continue as a director. Wyskiel, an automotive industry veteran with over 35 years of experience, returns to Blue Bird after a notable tenure at Magna International. His leadership is expected to drive Blue Bird’s strategic initiatives and sustain profitable growth, leveraging his extensive expertise in manufacturing leadership and operational excellence. The transition marks a strategic move as Blue Bird aims to solidify its position as a leader in electric and low-emission school buses, with the company experiencing record profitability and liquidity.