BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 45.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.37
• Revenue Growth: -6.95%
• EPS Growth: -53.69%
• Country: US
• Employees: 630
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 476,056,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 44,002,037
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 45,660,635
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 15.18
• P/FCF Ratio: -45.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 47.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.97
• 1Y Price Target: $5.33
• Price Target Upside: 35.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $164.26M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(1.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held down primarily by weak fundamentals (shrinking revenue, very large losses, and ongoing cash burn) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting these are improved balance-sheet positioning and liquidity, plus FY2026 revenue growth guidance and strategic progress highlighted on the earnings call.

Positive Factors

Strengthened balance sheet and liquidity

Large 2025 capital raises, forced conversion of 2029 notes, and materially reduced debt improve solvency and fund strategic investments. Durable impact: lower interest burden and ample liquidity increase runway for execution, M&A, and government contract performance over the next 2-6 months.

Strategic M&A expanding product capabilities

Acquiring Assage and CargoSphere adds generative-AI distribution and cargo inspection capabilities, broadening addressable markets and cross-sell into government/commercial programs. These integrations are structural, potentially boosting recurring software/platform revenue and differentiated tech over time.

International expansion and local partnerships

Establishing a regional HQ and local partnerships creates durable access to Middle East trade, ports, and government contracts. Local presence and partners improve competitive positioning for long-term program wins, hiring, and contract capture outside the US market.

Negative Factors

Revenue contraction and program concentration

Material recent revenue declines and reliance on a few government programs increase execution risk. Structural dependence on Army and other large contracts means single-program volume swings can materially affect top-line stability and hinder predictable cash flows for the medium term.

Ongoing negative cash generation

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow implies the business cannot self-fund growth or integration costs. Even with improved liquidity, repeated cash burn creates reliance on capital markets and limits optionality until operations generate sustained positive FCF.

Margin pressure and weak profitability

Sharp margin compression, negative adjusted EBITDA, and large net losses reflect structural cost and pricing challenges. Persistent low gross margins reduce ability to leverage revenue growth into profits and raise execution risk during integration and investment cycles.

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

BigBearai generates revenue through a combination of government contracts and commercial partnerships. A significant portion of its earnings comes from providing AI-driven analytics solutions to defense and intelligence agencies, which typically involve long-term contracts and ongoing support services. In addition, BBAI collaborates with private sector companies to offer customized data analytics solutions, contributing to its revenue stream. The company also invests in research and development to innovate its product offerings, which can lead to new revenue opportunities and partnerships in emerging markets.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are the largest drag: revenue contracted (~11% in 2025 vs. 2024), profitability is deeply negative (very large net losses; ~-230% net margin cited), and operating/free cash flow remain negative (2025 FCF about -$42M). The key offset is an improved balance sheet profile in 2025 with modest leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.04) and sizable equity, but returns remain sharply negative.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile and recently contracted (down ~11% in 2025 vs. 2024 after being roughly flat in 2023–2024). Profitability is weak: gross margin sits in the low-to-mid 20%s, while operating results are deeply negative and net losses are very large (2025 net margin roughly -230%), indicating substantial costs and/or non-operating charges overwhelming the revenue base. The key positive is that gross profit remains positive, but the business has not shown a sustained path back to operating profitability after the brief profitability seen in 2020.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks modest in the most recent year (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.04 with equity of ~$612M), which is a notable improvement versus the prior two years when equity was negative and leverage metrics were distorted. Total debt has also come down meaningfully from 2023–2024 levels. The main concern is that returns remain very poor (2025 return on equity is sharply negative), reflecting that the balance sheet strength has not yet translated into profitable operations, and the large swing in equity over time suggests meaningful structural changes and/or accounting impacts that increase historical comparability risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a clear weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative across 2021–2025, with 2025 free cash flow around -$42M. While free cash flow improved versus 2024 (positive growth), the business is still consuming cash rather than funding itself internally. A partial offset is that cash burn is not worsening each year and free cash flow has been less negative than 2024, but the overall profile still implies ongoing financing needs if losses persist.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	127.67M	158.24M	155.16M	155.01M	145.58M
Gross Profit	28.48M	45.22M	40.60M	42.99M	34.07M
EBITDA	-260.52M	-258.28M	-22.32M	-48.17M	-107.44M
Net Income	-293.91M	-295.55M	-70.66M	-111.37M	-123.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	894.55M	343.78M	199.91M	195.31M	383.32M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	87.13M	50.14M	32.56M	12.63M	68.90M
Total Debt	24.33M	146.41M	200.59M	200.28M	194.60M
Total Liabilities	282.68M	347.49M	267.25M	233.18M	260.95M
Stockholders Equity	611.87M	-3.71M	-67.33M	-37.87M	122.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-42.48M	-49.23M	-22.14M	-49.69M	-20.42M
Operating Cash Flow	-41.95M	-38.12M	-18.31M	-48.92M	-19.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-606.68M	2.82M	-3.83M	-5.23M	-863.00K
Financing Cash Flow	691.31M	52.46M	42.06M	-103.14M	180.86M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.01, below the 50-day MA of 4.92, and below the 200-day MA of 5.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LDOS	73 Outperform	$21.97B	16.69	31.07%	0.87%	6.48%	22.17%
PLTR	70 Outperform	$361.02B	259.19	25.66%	―	47.23%	116.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ASGN	61 Neutral	$1.50B	18.42	6.26%	―	-4.86%	-25.15%
PSN	61 Neutral	$5.82B	29.66	9.48%	―	-0.24%	389.03%
BBAI	49 Neutral	$1.88B	―	-69.72%	―	-6.95%	-53.69%
AI	47 Neutral	$1.25B	-2.86	-55.55%	―	1.84%	-27.74%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

BigBear.ai Announces Major Convertible Notes Debt Redemption

On January 2, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings announced that it had called for the redemption of all its 6.00% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2029, a move that is expected to eliminate about $125 million of debt through a mix of voluntary noteholder conversions and cash redemption of any remaining notes by the January 16, 2026 redemption date. Following approximately $58 million of principal already converted in 2025, the company expects to reduce total note-related debt from roughly $142 million to about $17 million, primarily by issuing around 38 million previously reserved common shares instead of using cash, materially lowering long-term liabilities and interest expense, increasing public float, and enhancing financial flexibility to support both organic growth and targeted acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.