BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $757.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 45.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.86
• Revenue Growth: 1.98%
• EPS Growth: -187.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 630
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): -1.20
• Shares Outstanding: 289,006,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 50,653,349
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 45,400,689
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.80
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -98.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $5.33
• Price Target Upside: 107.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

BigBearai Holdings faces significant financial challenges with persistent losses and negative equity, which heavily weigh down its stock score. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, further impacting the score negatively. Although the appointment of a new CEO is a positive development, it is not enough to offset the overall financial and operational difficulties, resulting in a low overall stock score.

Positive Factors

Contract Wins

BigBear announced that it was awarded a $165 million, 5-year contract for the U.S. Army Global Force Information Management (GFIM) Production Services.

Partnerships

BigBear's partnership with L3Harris as the exclusive provider of computer vision, predictive analytics, and event alerting analytics applications for L3Harris’s autonomous surface vessels is ramping up.

Negative Factors

Earnings Miss

Shares of BigBear.ai are trading down over 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results below consensus and issued 2025 guidance below expectations.

Revenue Miss

Revenue of $43.8M was well below the Street’s $54.6M estimate resulting in the company missing its full year guide of between $165.0M and $180.0M.

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

BigBear.ai Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its AI and analytics software solutions, which are provided to customers on a subscription basis or through one-time licensing fees. The company also earns income from offering consulting and professional services, helping clients implement and optimize their AI strategies. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with government agencies, particularly in the defense sector, as well as partnerships with commercial enterprises looking to leverage AI for competitive advantage. Significant partnerships and collaborations with technology firms and government entities further bolster its earnings by expanding its market reach and enhancing its product offerings.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BigBearai Holdings is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative equity. Although there is some revenue growth, the financial instability and cash flow issues reflect a company in distress, requiring strategic adjustments to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

The company has shown a slight revenue growth in the TTM compared to the previous year, but profitability remains a major concern with negative net income and deteriorating EBIT and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin has improved slightly, but the consistent net losses indicate struggling profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a low equity ratio, indicating high financial risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, further highlighting leverage issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow, with a substantial decline in operating cash flow over the TTM. Despite a positive financing cash flow, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests unsustainable financial operations.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
158.24M	155.16M	155.01M	145.58M	91.32M
	Gross Profit
45.22M	40.60M	42.99M	34.07M	21.68M
	EBIT
-45.68M	-39.03M	-50.17M	-78.47M	-34.10K
	EBITDA
-45.68M	-37.57M	-101.02M	-107.44M	-34.10K
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-257.09M	-60.37M	-121.67M	-123.55M	-34.10K
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
50.14M	32.56M	12.63M	68.90M	9.70M
	Total Assets
343.78M	199.91M	195.31M	383.32M	218.37M
	Total Debt
11.01M	200.59M	200.28M	194.60M	106.99M
	Net Debt
-39.13M	168.04M	187.64M	125.70M	97.29M
	Total Liabilities
347.49M	267.25M	233.18M	260.95M	117.97M
	Stockholders Equity
-3.71M	-67.33M	-37.87M	122.37M	100.40M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-38.60M	-22.14M	-49.69M	-20.43M	922.00K
	Operating Cash Flow
-38.12M	-18.31M	-48.92M	-19.78M	1.20M
	Investing Cash Flow
2.82M	-3.83M	-5.23M	-863.00K	-184.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
52.46M	42.06M	-103.14M	180.86M	192.22M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.99, below the 50-day MA of 4.70, and below the 200-day MA of 2.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAY	76 Outperform	$3.48B	80.45	9.65%	―	41.86%	96.57%
HCKT	75 Outperform	$728.78M	24.99	28.82%	1.71%	5.82%	-14.46%
GDYN	69 Neutral	$1.14B	300.22	0.90%	―	12.04%	―
TASK	59 Neutral	$1.15B	25.64	9.78%	―	7.64%	5.22%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$11.04B	9.83	-6.56%	3.16%	7.59%	-10.43%
AI	54 Neutral	$2.66B	―	-32.07%	―	23.79%	4.10%
BBAI	42 Neutral	$757.20M	―	-738.19%	―	1.98%	-187.98%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

BigBear.ai Appoints Kevin McAleenan as New CEO

On January 15, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings announced the appointment of Kevin McAleenan as the new Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Mandy Long. McAleenan, who has an extensive background in government and the AI industry, previously served as BigBear.ai’s President and co-founded Pangiam. His leadership is expected to enhance BigBear.ai’s position as a leading AI solutions provider, with a focus on national security imperatives, leveraging his deep understanding of national security priorities and challenges.