Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $112.72M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 226.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.81
• Revenue Growth: 72.69%
• EPS Growth: 65.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 55,527,653
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 144,039
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 226,303
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.13
• 1Y Price Target: $5.25
• Price Target Upside: 166.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(1.52% Upside)

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong revenue growth but ongoing profitability challenges. The positive earnings call and strategic expansion plans are significant strengths, while valuation concerns and high maintenance expenses pose risks.

Positive Factors

Debt Reduction

The sale-leaseback agreement expected to close is seen as favorable, as it should reduce the company’s total debt by approximately 23%.

Financial Performance

Bridger Aerospace reported record revenues and improved EBITDA, showing strong financial performance driven by increased flight revenue.

New Business Opportunities

Management is seeking an aerial firefighting contract from potential European customers for the coming fire season, which could lead to new business opportunities.

Negative Factors

Financial Uncertainty

The financing of Spanish scoopers is still to be determined, which could impact financial outcomes if not resolved favorably.

Operational Challenges

Bridger Aerospace is not currently operating the two aircraft on loan to the government of Portugal, which could delay immediate revenue generation.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace makes money primarily through contracts with government agencies, such as the U.S. Forest Service and other state and local firefighting agencies, which hire the company for its specialized aerial firefighting services. The company also generates revenue by providing its services to private landowners and international clients needing wildfire management solutions. Additionally, Bridger Aerospace may leverage its fleet and technological expertise for other aerial services, contributing to its revenue streams. Partnerships with aircraft manufacturers and technology providers could further enhance their service offerings and profitability.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows a mixed financial performance. Strong revenue growth and cash flow improvements are notable, but profitability challenges persist with negative net income and return on equity. The significant reduction in leverage enhances financial stability.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a gross profit margin of 40.78%, which is relatively healthy, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -0.58%, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is strong at 16.31% TTM, suggesting positive sales momentum. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 18.33% and 19.79%, respectively, indicating room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.06 TTM, indicating a strong reduction in leverage and a more stable financial structure. However, the return on equity remains negative at -1.43%, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the reduction in debt suggests a more balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows positive trends, with a remarkable free cash flow growth rate of 107.96% TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.64, suggesting a decent conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.58 further supports the company's ability to generate cash despite net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	126.49M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
Gross Profit	51.58M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
EBITDA	25.04M	24.84M	-43.44M	-13.01M	9.43M	-6.18M
Net Income	-729.00K	-15.57M	-77.36M	-42.13M	-6.54M	-12.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	279.04M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.04M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
Total Debt	2.50M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.88M	55.09M
Total Liabilities	236.65M	237.33M	246.54M	228.39M	133.25M	69.18M
Stockholders Equity	42.39M	53.48M	26.93M	77.59M	61.86M	62.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.14M	5.27M	-47.87M	-45.31M	-47.74M	-61.12M
Operating Cash Flow	15.70M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.28M	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.05M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.99, above the 50-day MA of 1.91, and above the 200-day MA of 1.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	73 Outperform	$1.41B	33.23	24.98%	1.28%	-3.81%	-11.48%
SNT	69 Neutral	$102.87M	65.29	-3.47%	―	―	―
MG	67 Neutral	$306.87M	26.91	5.63%	―	-4.51%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.75B	15.57	7.24%	2.01%	2.80%	-14.32%
BAER	60 Neutral	$112.72M	―	-1.79%	―	72.69%	65.51%
GFAI	50 Neutral	$22.92M	―	-20.57%	―	0.18%	91.18%
KSCP	41 Neutral	$55.80M	―	-236.56%	―	-6.61%	―

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Unveils Strategic Expansion Plans

In August 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings presented an investor presentation highlighting their strategic plans for expansion and increased deployment of their aircraft fleet. The company aims to enhance its operations and market positioning by investing in additional aircraft and capital resources, despite facing various risks and uncertainties related to market conditions and competition.

Bridger Aerospace Elects Directors at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. During the meeting, two Class III directors, Jeffrey Kelter and Meghan Pasricha, were elected to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting. Additionally, the appointment of Crowe LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.