Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $92.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.87
• Revenue Growth: 54.35%
• EPS Growth: 70.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 55,543,102
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 165,348
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,084,012
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.45
• 1Y Price Target: $5.25
• Price Target Upside: 176.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(5.26% Upside)

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in expanding its fleet and securing financial flexibility. However, the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield present valuation concerns. The technical indicators suggest moderate bullish momentum, while the earnings call highlights robust operational achievements. Overall, the stock is positioned for growth but faces challenges in profitability and valuation.

Positive Factors

Fleet Expansion

The acquisition of two Bombardier CL-215T aircraft enhances Bridger's firefighting capabilities, strengthening its market position and revenue potential.

Financial Flexibility

The new credit agreement supports future fleet expansion and enhances financial flexibility, enabling Bridger to capitalize on growth opportunities.

Revenue Growth

Surpassing revenue guidance indicates strong demand and effective execution, positioning Bridger for continued financial growth.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Low net profit and negative EBIT margins highlight operational efficiency challenges, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

High Cost of Revenues

Rising maintenance costs could pressure margins and reduce profitability, necessitating improved cost management strategies.

Leadership Transition

CFO retirement and leadership changes may introduce transitional risks, affecting financial strategy and operational continuity.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) is a leading provider of aerial firefighting services and advanced aviation solutions. The company operates primarily in the aerospace and defense sectors, specializing in the deployment of innovative firefighting technologies and aircraft designed to combat wildfires. BAER's core offerings include the operation of large air tankers and helicopters equipped with state-of-the-art firefighting equipment, as well as consulting services for wildfire management and prevention strategies.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by providing aerial firefighting services to government agencies and private entities. The company contracts with federal and state agencies for firefighting operations, which includes the deployment of aircraft for fire suppression during wildfire seasons. Additionally, BAER earns revenue from the leasing and operation of its aircraft, as well as from consulting services related to wildfire management. Significant partnerships with governmental bodies and other organizations involved in disaster response and environmental management enhance its revenue potential. The company's ability to secure long-term contracts and respond to emergency situations also contributes to its financial stability and growth.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows a positive growth trajectory with strong revenue and cash flow improvements. The balance sheet reflects reduced leverage and improved financial stability. While profitability metrics show progress, there is room for enhancing operational efficiency and profit margins.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings has shown a positive revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.67%. The gross profit margin has improved to 44.68% in the TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 4.96%, and the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects growth potential but also highlights areas for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a significant improvement in financial stability, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 in the TTM, indicating effective debt management. The return on equity has turned positive at 12.09%, reflecting improved profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates a stable financial position with reduced leverage risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust free cash flow growth rate of 142.97% in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.52 suggests efficient cash flow management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.65 indicates room for improvement in converting profits into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation with potential for further optimization.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	129.87M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
Gross Profit	57.43M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
EBITDA	68.68M	24.84M	-43.35M	-13.01M	9.43M	-7.95M
Net Income	6.44M	-15.57M	-77.36M	-42.13M	-6.54M	-12.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	310.99M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.12M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
Total Debt	211.45M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.89M	191.43M
Total Liabilities	233.06M	237.33M	246.54M	230.58M	133.25M	194.94M
Stockholders Equity	77.92M	53.48M	26.93M	75.40M	61.86M	-62.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.21M	5.27M	-47.87M	-35.50M	-47.74M	-61.12M
Operating Cash Flow	33.95M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.54M	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.59M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.78, above the 50-day MA of 1.74, and above the 200-day MA of 1.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	80 Outperform	$1.51B	34.54	25.03%	1.28%	-2.28%	-9.94%
BAER	67 Neutral	$92.20M	-3.21	8.75%	―	54.35%	70.17%
MG	66 Neutral	$406.66M	22.59	8.42%	―	-3.20%	60.03%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SNT	60 Neutral	$75.81M	―	―	―	―	―
EVLV	48 Neutral	$1.20B	―	-51.67%	―	41.61%	-1.76%
KSCP	41 Neutral	$56.05M	-0.72	-164.48%	―	5.50%	51.32%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Expands Fleet with New Aircraft Purchase

On November 21, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, through its subsidiary Albacete Aero, entered into an Aircraft Purchase Agreement with MAB Funding Designated Activity Company to acquire two Bombardier CL-215T aircraft for $50 million. This strategic acquisition, announced on November 24, 2025, expands Bridger’s Super Scooper fleet from six to eight aircraft, solidifying its position as the owner of the largest private Super Scooper fleet globally. The transaction is expected to enhance Bridger’s firefighting capabilities and revenue potential, with plans to deploy the aircraft in 2026.

Bridger Aerospace Announces CFO Retirement and Leadership Changes

On November 21, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced the planned retirement of its Chief Financial Officer, Eric Gerratt, following the filing of the Company’s Annual Report in March 2026. Anne Hayes resigned from the Board to become Deputy CFO and is anticipated to assume the CFO role after Gerratt’s retirement, while Ernie Freedman was appointed to the Board and as Chairman of the Audit Committee. These leadership changes are part of Bridger’s strategy to ensure financial resilience and support its growth amid increasing wildfire challenges.

Bridger Aerospace Unveils Expansion Plans in November 2025

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings released an investor presentation in November 2025, outlining its plans for operational expansion and increased aircraft deployment to meet the growing demand for aerial firefighting services. The presentation highlights potential benefits from these expansions, while also acknowledging various risks and uncertainties that could impact the company’s future performance and market positioning.

Bridger Aerospace Secures $331.5M Credit Agreement

On October 28, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. entered into a Credit Agreement with Bain Capital Credit, LP, securing a $331.5 million senior secured facility to refinance existing debt and support future fleet expansion. This financial move, alongside a sale-leaseback of its facilities, enhances Bridger’s financial flexibility, enabling organic growth and fleet optimization to support expanded contracts and drive long-term shareholder value.