Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)
NASDAQ:BAER
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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:BAER)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(12.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
BAER scores as mid-range: improving fundamentals and a markedly cleaner balance sheet plus upbeat 2026 growth/EBITDA guidance are key positives, but they are tempered by very weak technical momentum and high cash-flow volatility (notably deeply negative 2025 free cash flow) alongside uneven revenue/earnings consistency.
Positive Factors
Clear 2026 guidance and funded fleet expansion
Management issued multiyear guidance and added aircraft while securing a large senior facility with a $100M delayed draw. This provides durable capacity to scale high-margin flying hours, convert unmet demand, and fund fleet growth without immediate dilution, strengthening execution optionality.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow in 2025
A large negative FCF in 2025, driven by capex and working-capital swings, undermines the company's ability to self-fund fleet additions and absorb timing shocks. Reliance on external financing raises refinancing and dilution risk over the next 2–6 months if utilization or contract timing falters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Clear 2026 guidance and funded fleet expansion
Management issued multiyear guidance and added aircraft while securing a large senior facility with a $100M delayed draw. This provides durable capacity to scale high-margin flying hours, convert unmet demand, and fund fleet growth without immediate dilution, strengthening execution optionality.
Read all positive factors
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$123.59M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)594.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.0
Beta (1Y)2.05
Revenue Growth54.35%
EPS Growth70.17%
CountryUS
Employees191
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.40
Shares Outstanding55,923,320
10 Day Avg. Volume502,331
30 Day Avg. Volume594,543
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio-1.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.18Price Target Upside87.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$138.50M
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana....
How the Company Makes Money
Bridger Aerospace makes money by providing contracted aerial firefighting and aviation services using its owned/operated aircraft and crews. Revenue is primarily generated through service contracts where customers (typically government wildfire ag...
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong full-year financial and operational progress with 25% revenue growth, positive net income, a 21% increase in adjusted EBITDA, improved liquidity and an actionable growth plan for 2026. At the same time, Bridger reported a weak fourth quarter driven by timing and return-to-service differences, elevated maintenance and one-time items that depressed quarterly profitability, and clear capacity constraints (48% unfilled scooper requests). Management presented credible mitigants — new financing with a $100M delayed draw for fleet expansion, high-margin fleet additions, technology integration (Ignis) and active contract discussions in the U.S. and Europe — and provided constructive guidance for 2026. Overall, the favorable full-year results, improved balance sheet and confident guidance outweigh the quarter-specific and timing-related challenges discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue Growth and Return to Profitability
Revenue of $122.8M in 2025 vs $98.6M in 2024, a 25% increase; excluding return-to-service work revenue was $108.8M vs $88.5M, up 23%. Net income of $4.1M in 2025 compared to a net loss of $15.6M in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $45.3M in 2025 vs $37.3M in 2024, up ~21%.
Negative Updates
Weak Fourth Quarter Performance
Q4 2025 revenue was $8.5M vs $15.6M in Q4 2024 (down ~45%), driven in part by timing/late deployment and lower return-to-service work. Q4 net loss widened to $15.1M from $12.8M and Q4 adjusted EBITDA was negative $9.5M vs negative $2.9M a year earlier.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue Growth and Return to Profitability
Revenue of $122.8M in 2025 vs $98.6M in 2024, a 25% increase; excluding return-to-service work revenue was $108.8M vs $88.5M, up 23%. Net income of $4.1M in 2025 compared to a net loss of $15.6M in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $45.3M in 2025 vs $37.3M in 2024, up ~21%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Bridger initiated 2026 guidance of $135–$145 million in total revenue and $55–$60 million in adjusted EBITDA, targeting >25% growth vs. 2025 when excluding the 2025 Spain return‑to‑service work, and expects continued improvement in cash provided by operating activities and positive net income for the year (though a net loss is expected in Q1 due to winter maintenance). The company begins 2026 with six new aircraft on the balance sheet (2 previously leased PC‑12s with contracts through 2027, 2 King Air multi‑mission aircraft, and 2 Spanish scoopers) and estimates the scoopers plus the two new MMAs will contribute roughly 10–15% of 2026 revenue at about a 40% EBITDA margin (MMAs can run 40–50%+ and scoopers generally >40%). Financial flexibility to fund fleet expansion comes from a new senior secured facility of up to $331.5 million, including a $100 million delayed‑draw term loan (approximately $90 million of the DDTL capacity remained available at close), and the company closed 2025 with $31.4 million of cash.Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 122.83M | 98.61M | 66.71M | 46.39M | 39.38M |
| Gross Profit | 51.68M | 41.14M | 25.37M | 12.50M | 12.80M |
| EBITDA | 30.87M | 24.84M | -43.35M | -13.01M | 9.43M |
| Net Income | 4.14M | -15.57M | -77.36M | -42.13M | -6.54M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 330.31M | 290.81M | 273.47M | 305.98M | 195.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.38M | 39.34M | 23.96M | 85.14M | 13.69M |
| Total Debt | 244.85M | 212.56M | 214.62M | 208.69M | 60.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 265.64M | 237.33M | 246.54M | 230.58M | 133.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.67M | 53.48M | 26.93M | 75.40M | 61.86M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -64.21M | 5.27M | -47.87M | -35.50M | -47.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.73M | 9.36M | -26.81M | -9.92M | 6.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.44M | 2.06M | 27.16M | -89.81M | -54.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.32M | 4.67M | -5.83M | 124.93M | 60.76M |
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
2.23
Price Trends
2.32
Negative
2.20
Positive
2.02
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
56.29
Neutral
89.66
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.02, below the 50-day MA of 2.32, and above the 200-day MA of 2.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BAER.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.52B | 27.53 | 27.45% | 1.29% | -2.28% | -9.94% | |
67 Neutral | $70.91M | 28.93 | 12.02% | ― | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $527.65M | 25.59 | 7.67% | ― | -3.20% | 60.03% | |
59 Neutral | $1.07B | -36.39 | -30.45% | ― | 41.61% | -1.76% | |
56 Neutral | $123.59M | 23.99 | 7.38% | ― | 54.35% | 70.17% | |
49 Neutral | $54.87M | -1.01 | -153.81% | ― | 5.50% | 51.32% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Bridger Aerospace Strengthens Leadership With New General Counsel
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice President James Muchmore notified Bridger Aerospace that he would resign effective April 3, 2026, and later entered a March 25 transition agreement providing cash, COBRA coverage and accele...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bridger Aerospace Appoints New CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. confirmed that Chief Financial Officer Eric Gerratt would resign effective that day and work in a transitionary role until his retirement on April 3, 2026, supported by a retention and tran...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.