Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $97.99M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 206.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: 51.36%
• EPS Growth: 56.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 85
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 54,742,645
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 210,323
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 206,200
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.25
• 1Y Price Target: $5.25
• Price Target Upside: 193.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(11.73%Upside)

The overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, offset by ongoing profitability challenges and a negative valuation scenario. Positive technical momentum and corporate actions further support potential future improvements, though risks remain due to financial instability.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

Lower fuel and travel costs are expected to have a direct positive impact on Bridger Aerospace's operations.

Financial Performance

Bridger Aerospace reported record revenues and improved EBITDA, showing strong financial performance driven by increased flight revenue.

Government Support

Congress appropriated a 46.2% increase in wildland fire management funds in the FY24 budget, indicating strong government support for wildfire suppression efforts.

Negative Factors

Contractual Challenges

The financing of Spanish scoopers is still to be determined, which could impact financial outcomes if not resolved favorably.

Financial Reporting

Bridger Aerospace's auditors confirmed material weaknesses in financial reporting, though these are not considered significant given the company's status as a new public entity.

Operational Challenges

California revenue associated with by-the-hour wildfire suppression operations is likely lower than anticipated due to the aircraft remaining in standby mode.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) is an aviation services company primarily focused on providing aerial firefighting and related emergency management solutions. The company operates within the aerospace and defense sectors, offering specialized services that include air attack, aerial supervision, and large air tanker operations. Bridger Aerospace is committed to supporting firefighting efforts with advanced technology and skilled personnel, aiming to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of wildfire response operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through contracts with government agencies and private entities for its aerial firefighting services. The company's key revenue streams include fees for deploying their fleet of aircraft, which are equipped for fire suppression, reconnaissance, and other emergency management tasks. Bridger Aerospace also benefits from long-term service agreements and partnerships with federal and state firefighting agencies, ensuring a steady flow of income through both scheduled and emergency deployments. Additionally, the company may engage in supplementary services like training and consulting, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows strong revenue growth and improved operational cash flow. However, persistent profitability challenges and declining equity pose financial risks. The balance sheet leverage is manageable, yet the decrease in equity highlights potential financial strain.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings showed significant revenue growth, increasing from $46.4M in 2022 to $98.6M by 2024 and further to $108.8M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net income and EBIT across the periods. The gross profit margin is healthy at 39.8% for TTM, but the net profit margin is negative due to persistent losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 in TTM, indicating manageable leverage. However, stockholders' equity has decreased significantly from $77.6M in 2022 to $39.4M in TTM, reflecting potential concerns about financial stability. Additionally, the equity ratio stands at 14.3%, suggesting a high reliance on liabilities to finance assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow from operations turned positive in TTM, reaching $11.5M, a positive sign of cash generation capability. Free cash flow improved, though still low at $4.2M in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective cash conversion despite net losses.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
108.75M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
	Gross Profit
43.28M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
	EBIT
-5.17M	5.32M	-57.49M	-22.63M	2.75M	-8.86M
	EBITDA
8.94M	24.84M	-43.44M	-13.01M	9.26M	-6.18M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-11.02M	-15.57M	-77.36M	-61.62M	-17.00M	-13.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.35M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
	Total Assets
275.60M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
	Total Debt
2.22M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.88M	55.09M
	Net Debt
-20.13M	173.22M	191.66M	178.53M	47.19M	49.85M
	Total Liabilities
236.23M	237.33M	246.54M	228.39M	133.25M	69.18M
	Stockholders Equity
39.37M	53.48M	26.93M	77.59M	61.86M	62.87M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
4.18M	5.27M	-47.87M	-45.31M	-47.74M	-61.12M
	Operating Cash Flow
11.46M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
-373.00K	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
4.41M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.65, above the 50-day MA of 1.52, and below the 200-day MA of 2.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	78 Outperform	$984.12M	22.47	27.48%	2.03%	-1.05%	-2.78%
SNT	74 Outperform	$92.37M	65.29	-3.47%	―	―	―
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.47B	12.21	5.40%	3.65%	4.14%	-12.00%
BAER	59 Neutral	$97.99M	―	-42.60%	―	51.36%	56.80%
GFAI	58 Neutral	$21.97M	―	-20.57%	―	0.18%	91.18%
MG	56 Neutral	$240.30M	16.32	7.70%	―	-2.09%	―
KSCP	52 Neutral	$38.23M	―	-243.06%	―	-5.64%	35.09%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Elects Directors at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. During the meeting, two Class III directors, Jeffrey Kelter and Meghan Pasricha, were elected to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting. Additionally, the appointment of Crowe LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Buy with a $5.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Signs $46M Sale-Leaseback Agreement

On May 23, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement with SR Aviation Infrastructure for a sale and leaseback of its facilities at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport, with a purchase price of approximately $46 million. This transaction, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, aims to strengthen Bridger’s balance sheet by reducing its debt and interest expenses while maintaining its operational base through a 10-year lease agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Expands Board with New Director Appointment

On April 14, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced the appointment of Meghan Pasricha as an independent director, expanding its Board of Directors to nine members. Pasricha, a partner at Galvanize Climate Solutions with extensive experience in credit and capital solutions, is expected to contribute significantly to Bridger’s growth plans and capital structure optimization, enhancing long-term growth and value for stakeholders.

Bridger Aerospace Appoints Sam Davis as CEO

On March 17, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced the appointment of Sam Davis as the permanent President and Chief Executive Officer. Davis, who joined the company in 2019, has been instrumental in its transition to a public company and has driven significant revenue growth and operational efficiency. His leadership has been marked by strong top-line growth, increased EBITDA, and positive cash flow, positioning Bridger to effectively manage the year-round threat of wildfires and deliver value to stakeholders.