Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)
NASDAQ:BAER
Want to see BAER full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:BAER)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-9.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
BAER scores low primarily due to elevated balance-sheet risk (very high leverage and shrinking equity) and inconsistent profitability with renewed TTM losses and weak free cash flow. Technicals are mixed but not supportive (below key moving averages and negative MACD). The earnings call adds some offset via reiterated full-year guidance and demand/contract momentum, but near-term results and liquidity drawdown keep the overall score constrained.
Positive Factors
Structural wildfire demand & federal momentum
Sustained higher fire risk and federal consolidation create multi-year demand for aerial suppression and prepositioning. That structural backdrop supports recurring standby and multi-year contracts, improving revenue visibility and enabling scale economics across seasons and regions.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and shrinking equity
Extremely elevated leverage constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if profitability weakens. Limited equity cushion amplifies downside from seasonal revenue swings, and rising funding costs or covenant stress could force dilutive financing or deferred investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Structural wildfire demand & federal momentum
Sustained higher fire risk and federal consolidation create multi-year demand for aerial suppression and prepositioning. That structural backdrop supports recurring standby and multi-year contracts, improving revenue visibility and enabling scale economics across seasons and regions.
Read all positive factors
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$113.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)652.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.00
Revenue Growth6.39%
EPS Growth0.74%
CountryUS
Employees191
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.71
Shares Outstanding57,637,640
10 Day Avg. Volume873,040
30 Day Avg. Volume652,410
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio-1.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.12Price Target Upside86.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$138.17M
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana....
How the Company Makes Money
Bridger Aerospace primarily makes money by providing contracted aerial firefighting services, where it is paid to make aircraft, flight crews, and operational support available for wildfire suppression and response. Key revenue streams generally i...
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful operational and market positives—strong market demand signals, product/technology launches (Ignis), fleet and crew enhancements, solid multi-year contracts, and reiterated full-year guidance—with near-term financial stresses including a large Q1 revenue decline, widened losses, negative adjusted EBITDA, and a substantial reduction in cash. Management emphasized seasonality and strategic investments to support a stronger second half, and retains significant liquidity capacity via a $100M delayed-draw facility. Given both the material operational momentum and the pronounced short-term financial headwinds, the tone is cautiously optimistic but mixed.Positive Updates
Reiterated Full-Year Guidance and Growth Outlook
Company reiterated 2026 guidance of $135M–$145M in revenue and $55M–$60M in adjusted EBITDA, representing approximately 29% growth when excluding nonrecurring 2025 return-to-service revenue on Spanish scoopers.
Negative Updates
Significant Q1 Revenue Decline
Revenue fell to $8.5M in Q1 2026 from $15.6M in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 45.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by the absence of nonrecurring return-to-service work and earlier-deployment activity in the prior year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reiterated Full-Year Guidance and Growth Outlook
Company reiterated 2026 guidance of $135M–$145M in revenue and $55M–$60M in adjusted EBITDA, representing approximately 29% growth when excluding nonrecurring 2025 return-to-service revenue on Spanish scoopers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of $135–$145 million in revenue and $55–$60 million in adjusted EBITDA (about ~29% growth excluding nonrecurring 2025 return‑to‑service work on two Spanish scoopers); Q1 results were revenue $8.5M (vs $15.6M in Q1 2025) with return‑to‑service revenue $1.7M (vs $5.9M), cost of revenues $17.0M (vs $17.2M), SG&A $16.7M (vs $8.6M), interest expense $6.2M (vs $5.7M), net loss $31.3M or $0.69/share (vs $15.5M or $0.41/share), adjusted EBITDA loss $14.5M (vs $5.1M loss), cash $9M (vs $31.4M at YE2025) and ~$90M available on a $100M delayed‑draw credit feature; management expects improving operating cash flow through Q2–Q3 as fleet utilization rises, midyear MMA/sensor‑enabled air attack contribution to margins, Europe summer season contribution (handicapped), an $18.6M Alaska contract, and roughly seven IDIQ listings.Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 115.70M | 122.83M | 98.61M | 66.71M | 46.39M | 39.38M |
| Gross Profit | 44.71M | 51.68M | 41.14M | 25.37M | 12.50M | 12.80M |
| EBITDA | 27.02M | 42.66M | 24.84M | -43.35M | -13.01M | 9.43M |
| Net Income | -11.63M | 4.14M | -15.57M | -77.36M | -42.13M | -6.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 314.37M | 330.31M | 290.81M | 273.47M | 305.98M | 195.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.00M | 31.38M | 39.34M | 23.96M | 85.14M | 13.69M |
| Total Debt | 252.06M | 244.85M | 212.56M | 214.62M | 208.69M | 60.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 280.20M | 265.64M | 237.33M | 246.54M | 230.58M | 133.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.17M | 64.67M | 53.48M | 26.93M | 75.40M | 61.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.06M | -64.21M | 5.27M | -47.87M | -35.50M | -47.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.27M | 16.73M | 9.36M | -26.81M | -9.92M | 6.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.78M | -34.44M | 2.06M | 27.16M | -89.81M | -54.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.60M | -4.32M | 4.67M | -5.83M | 124.93M | 60.76M |
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
2.21
Price Trends
1.98
Negative
2.26
Negative
2.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
53.49
Neutral
74.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.88, above the 50-day MA of 1.98, and above the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BAER.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.34B | -861.44 | 20.86% | 1.29% | 8.83% | -16.34% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $65.10M | 35.03 | 7.70% | ― | ― | ― | |
55 Neutral | $549.79M | 48.92 | 9.83% | ― | 3.48% | 48.10% | |
51 Neutral | $1.12B | -53.46 | -33.53% | ― | 40.54% | 20.94% | |
48 Neutral | $113.55M | -0.87 | -21.22% | ― | 6.39% | 0.74% | |
45 Neutral | $51.75M | -1.40 | -143.53% | ― | 25.86% | 68.12% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BAER
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
1.97
0.60
43.80%
SNT
Senstar Technologies
2.73
-1.02
-27.20%
MG
Mistras Group
18.21
10.61
139.61%
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies
37.09
9.17
32.86%
EVLV
Evolv Technologies Holdings
6.35
0.50
8.55%
KSCP
Knightscope Inc Class A
2.92
-3.24
-52.60%
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Bridger Aerospace Strengthens Leadership With New General Counsel
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice President James Muchmore notified Bridger Aerospace that he would resign effective April 3, 2026, and later entered a March 25 transition agreement providing cash, COBRA coverage and accele...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bridger Aerospace Appoints New CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. confirmed that Chief Financial Officer Eric Gerratt would resign effective that day and work in a transitionary role until his retirement on April 3, 2026, supported by a retention and tran...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.