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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:BAER)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(8.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
BAER scores below average primarily due to high leverage and renewed TTM earnings/margin pressure alongside persistently negative free cash flow. Technicals also lean weak with the stock trading below major moving averages and elevated volatility (high beta). Offsetting factors include reiterated 2026 guidance and positive contract/technology momentum from the earnings call and recent corporate wins, but near-term losses and liquidity pressure keep the overall score constrained.
Positive Factors
Reiterated 2026 Guidance
Management's reiteration of full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted-EBITDA targets signals durable commercial visibility and planning discipline. It implies management expects sufficient contract backlog, seasonal revenue recovery, and margin improvement to hit multi-quarter objectives—supporting strategic investment and lender confidence over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage materially constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk. With limited equity cushion, the company is more exposed to seasonal revenue shortfalls or contract timing slips, which can force expensive funding, restrict capital allocation, and impair long-term ability to invest in fleet and tech.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Reiterated 2026 Guidance
Management's reiteration of full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted-EBITDA targets signals durable commercial visibility and planning discipline. It implies management expects sufficient contract backlog, seasonal revenue recovery, and margin improvement to hit multi-quarter objectives—supporting strategic investment and lender confidence over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$114.12M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)406.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.22
Revenue Growth6.39%
EPS Growth0.74%
CountryUS
Employees235
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.71
Shares Outstanding57,637,640
10 Day Avg. Volume334,310
30 Day Avg. Volume406,375
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio-1.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.12Price Target Upside122.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$138.17M
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC, established in 2014, specializes in delivering aerial services for wildfire management and suppression to various U.S. state government entities. The company's operations are headquartered in Belgrade, Montana....
How the Company Makes Money
Bridger Aerospace makes money by contracting its aircraft, flight crews, and operational support services to customers that need aerial firefighting and specialized aviation capabilities. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Aerial firefighting se...
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful operational and market positives—strong market demand signals, product/technology launches (Ignis), fleet and crew enhancements, solid multi-year contracts, and reiterated full-year guidance—with near-term financial stresses including a large Q1 revenue decline, widened losses, negative adjusted EBITDA, and a substantial reduction in cash. Management emphasized seasonality and strategic investments to support a stronger second half, and retains significant liquidity capacity via a $100M delayed-draw facility. Given both the material operational momentum and the pronounced short-term financial headwinds, the tone is cautiously optimistic but mixed.Positive Updates
Reiterated Full-Year Guidance and Growth Outlook
Company reiterated 2026 guidance of $135M–$145M in revenue and $55M–$60M in adjusted EBITDA, representing approximately 29% growth when excluding nonrecurring 2025 return-to-service revenue on Spanish scoopers.
Negative Updates
Significant Q1 Revenue Decline
Revenue fell to $8.5M in Q1 2026 from $15.6M in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 45.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by the absence of nonrecurring return-to-service work and earlier-deployment activity in the prior year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reiterated Full-Year Guidance and Growth Outlook
Company reiterated 2026 guidance of $135M–$145M in revenue and $55M–$60M in adjusted EBITDA, representing approximately 29% growth when excluding nonrecurring 2025 return-to-service revenue on Spanish scoopers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of $135–$145 million in revenue and $55–$60 million in adjusted EBITDA (about ~29% growth excluding nonrecurring 2025 return‑to‑service work on two Spanish scoopers); Q1 results were revenue $8.5M (vs $15.6M in Q1 2025) with return‑to‑service revenue $1.7M (vs $5.9M), cost of revenues $17.0M (vs $17.2M), SG&A $16.7M (vs $8.6M), interest expense $6.2M (vs $5.7M), net loss $31.3M or $0.69/share (vs $15.5M or $0.41/share), adjusted EBITDA loss $14.5M (vs $5.1M loss), cash $9M (vs $31.4M at YE2025) and ~$90M available on a $100M delayed‑draw credit feature; management expects improving operating cash flow through Q2–Q3 as fleet utilization rises, midyear MMA/sensor‑enabled air attack contribution to margins, Europe summer season contribution (handicapped), an $18.6M Alaska contract, and roughly seven IDIQ listings.Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 115.70M | 122.83M | 98.61M | 66.71M | 46.39M | 39.38M |
| Gross Profit | 44.71M | 51.68M | 41.14M | 25.37M | 12.50M | 12.80M |
| EBITDA | 27.16M | 42.66M | 24.84M | -43.35M | -13.01M | 9.43M |
| Net Income | -11.63M | 4.14M | -15.57M | -77.36M | -42.13M | -6.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 314.37M | 330.31M | 290.81M | 273.47M | 305.98M | 195.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.00M | 31.38M | 39.34M | 23.96M | 85.14M | 13.69M |
| Total Debt | 252.06M | 244.85M | 212.56M | 214.62M | 208.69M | 60.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 280.20M | 265.64M | 237.33M | 246.54M | 230.58M | 133.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.17M | 64.67M | 53.48M | 26.93M | 75.40M | 61.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.06M | -64.21M | 5.27M | -47.87M | -35.50M | -47.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.27M | 16.73M | 9.36M | -26.81M | -9.92M | 6.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.78M | -34.44M | 2.06M | 27.16M | -89.81M | -54.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.60M | -4.32M | 4.67M | -5.83M | 124.93M | 60.76M |
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
1.85
Price Trends
1.93
Positive
1.97
Positive
2.05
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
46.41
Neutral
53.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.92, below the 50-day MA of 1.93, and below the 200-day MA of 2.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BAER.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.30B | 36.00 | 20.86% | 1.62% | 8.83% | -16.34% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $40.60M | 27.86 | 3.21% | ― | ― | ― | |
55 Neutral | $482.66M | 21.38 | 9.83% | ― | 3.48% | 48.10% | |
52 Neutral | $985.70M | -24.47 | -33.53% | ― | 40.54% | 20.94% | |
46 Neutral | $114.12M | -2.73 | -21.22% | ― | 6.39% | 0.74% | |
46 Neutral | $40.09M | -0.46 | -143.53% | ― | 25.86% | 68.12% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Bridger Aerospace wins Texas wildfire aviation contract
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced it had secured a $58 million contract with Texas AM Forest Service to acquire, modify, and deliver three King Air 360 multi-mission aircraft over the next three years. The aircraft will ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Bridger Aerospace Stockholders Back Board and Auditor Slate
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 4, 2026, where stockholders elected three Class I directors, Dan Drohan, H. Wyman Howard III, and David Schellenberg, to serve until the 2029 Annual Meeting or u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.