Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $139.97M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 627.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.93
• Revenue Growth: 54.35%
• EPS Growth: 70.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 55,543,102
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,241,564
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 627,897
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.31
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $133.09M

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(19.05% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 01/28/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 01/28/26

The score is driven mainly by solid financial progress (strong cash generation and a low-leverage balance sheet) and a positive earnings narrative with guidance tracking to the high end. This is tempered by overbought technical conditions and limited/less-informative valuation signals due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

Very strong free cash flow growth provides durable internal funding for aircraft acquisitions, maintenance and seasonal working capital needs. This reduces dilution and financing dependence, enabling disciplined fleet expansion and higher financial flexibility across wildfire cycles.

Low Leverage / Strong Capital Structure

Extremely low leverage gives the company resilience to revenue seasonality and federal funding timing, supports access to capital on favorable terms, and lowers default risk. A solid equity base makes long-term fleet investment and contracted availability commitments more sustainable.

Fleet Capacity Advantage

Owning the largest private scooper fleet enhances competitive differentiation in aerial firefighting, increasing service capacity and contract win probability. This structural asset base supports revenue scalability and sticky customer relationships across multiple fire seasons.

Negative Factors

Thin Profitability / Negative EBIT

Low net margins and a negative EBIT margin signal persistent operating inefficiencies despite revenue gains. If not addressed, this constrains retained earnings and reinvestment capacity, making long-term margin recovery essential to sustain cash returns from fleet growth.

Rising Maintenance Costs

Material increases in maintenance expenses more than double cost base, pressuring gross margins and operating leverage. Given the capital-intensive fleet, elevated recurring maintenance can persist, reducing free cash flow conversion and requiring higher pricing or utilization to restore margins.

Government Funding & Timing Risk

Heavy reliance on government contracts exposes revenue to federal budget cycles and funding delays. Structural timing uncertainty can create lumpy top-line recognition, underutilized assets and working capital strain, challenging predictability of cash flows across fiscal periods.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by providing aerial firefighting services to government agencies and private entities. The company contracts with federal and state agencies for firefighting operations, which includes the deployment of aircraft for fire suppression during wildfire seasons. Additionally, BAER earns revenue from the leasing and operation of its aircraft, as well as from consulting services related to wildfire management. Significant partnerships with governmental bodies and other organizations involved in disaster response and environmental management enhance its revenue potential. The company's ability to secure long-term contracts and respond to emergency situations also contributes to its financial stability and growth.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate solid footing: improving gross margin (44.68% TTM), very low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03), and strong free cash flow growth (142.97% TTM). Offsetting this, profitability/efficiency remains mixed with low net margin (4.96%) and negative EBIT margin.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings has shown a positive revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.67%. The gross profit margin has improved to 44.68% in the TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 4.96%, and the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects growth potential but also highlights areas for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a significant improvement in financial stability, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 in the TTM, indicating effective debt management. The return on equity has turned positive at 12.09%, reflecting improved profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates a stable financial position with reduced leverage risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust free cash flow growth rate of 142.97% in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.52 suggests efficient cash flow management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.65 indicates room for improvement in converting profits into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation with potential for further optimization.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	129.87M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
Gross Profit	57.43M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
EBITDA	68.68M	24.84M	-43.35M	-13.01M	9.43M	-7.95M
Net Income	6.44M	-15.57M	-77.36M	-42.13M	-6.54M	-12.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	310.99M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.12M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
Total Debt	211.45M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.89M	191.43M
Total Liabilities	233.06M	237.33M	246.54M	230.58M	133.25M	194.94M
Stockholders Equity	77.92M	53.48M	26.93M	75.40M	61.86M	-62.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.21M	5.27M	-47.87M	-35.50M	-47.74M	-61.12M
Operating Cash Flow	33.95M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.54M	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.59M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.75, above the 50-day MA of 2.41, and above the 200-day MA of 1.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	78 Outperform	$1.64B	34.84	26.42%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
BAER	69 Neutral	$139.97M	-4.88	8.75%	―	54.35%	70.17%
SNT	67 Neutral	$78.14M	―	―	―	―	―
MG	66 Neutral	$477.95M	26.78	8.42%	―	-3.20%	60.03%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
EVLV	48 Neutral	$881.82M	-14.54	-51.67%	―	41.61%	-1.76%
KSCP	41 Neutral	$46.15M	-0.62	-164.48%	―	5.50%	51.32%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Expands Aerial Firefighting Fleet With Acquisition

On December 23, 2025, Bridger Aerospace, through its Spanish subsidiary Albacete Aero, completed the previously agreed $50 million acquisition of two Canadair CL-215T amphibious “Super Scooper” aircraft, engines and related assets from an affiliate of its MAB Funding joint venture, and formally announced the closing on December 30, 2025. The purchase, funded under a $210 million senior secured term loan facility, along with the addition of four air attack aircraft in the fourth quarter—two of which had already been leased and on contract in 2025—expands Bridger’s fleet to eight Super Scoopers, the largest privately operated scooper fleet worldwide, and 11 light fixed-wing air attack and surveillance aircraft, positioning the company for greater mission capacity and potential contract growth in the 2026 fire season and reinforcing its competitive standing in the aerial firefighting market.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Expands Fleet with New Aircraft Purchase

On November 21, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, through its subsidiary Albacete Aero, entered into an Aircraft Purchase Agreement with MAB Funding Designated Activity Company to acquire two Bombardier CL-215T aircraft for $50 million. This strategic acquisition, announced on November 24, 2025, expands Bridger’s Super Scooper fleet from six to eight aircraft, solidifying its position as the owner of the largest private Super Scooper fleet globally. The transaction is expected to enhance Bridger’s firefighting capabilities and revenue potential, with plans to deploy the aircraft in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Announces CFO Retirement and Leadership Changes

On November 21, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced the planned retirement of its Chief Financial Officer, Eric Gerratt, following the filing of the Company’s Annual Report in March 2026. Anne Hayes resigned from the Board to become Deputy CFO and is anticipated to assume the CFO role after Gerratt’s retirement, while Ernie Freedman was appointed to the Board and as Chairman of the Audit Committee. These leadership changes are part of Bridger’s strategy to ensure financial resilience and support its growth amid increasing wildfire challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Unveils Expansion Plans in November 2025

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings released an investor presentation in November 2025, outlining its plans for operational expansion and increased aircraft deployment to meet the growing demand for aerial firefighting services. The presentation highlights potential benefits from these expansions, while also acknowledging various risks and uncertainties that could impact the company’s future performance and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.