Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $101.82M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 202.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: 51.36%
• EPS Growth: 56.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 93
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 54,742,645
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 162,511
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 202,445
• PEG Ratio: -5.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.38
• 1Y Price Target: $5.25
• Price Target Upside: 182.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(7.53%Upside)

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' strong revenue growth and strategic partnerships are offset by persistent financial losses and a challenging valuation environment. Positive technical momentum and corporate events provide support, but the financial performance concerns remain primary.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Bridger Aerospace reported record revenues and improved EBITDA, showing strong financial performance driven by increased flight revenue.

Government Support

Congress appropriated a 46.2% increase in wildland fire management funds in the FY24 budget, indicating strong government support for wildfire suppression efforts.

Negative Factors

Revenue Concerns

California revenue associated with by-the-hour wildfire suppression operations is likely lower than anticipated due to the aircraft remaining in standby mode.

Unresolved Financing

The financing of Spanish scoopers is still to be determined, which could impact financial outcomes if not resolved favorably.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace makes money primarily through contracts with government agencies, such as the U.S. Forest Service and other state and local firefighting agencies, which hire the company for its specialized aerial firefighting services. The company also generates revenue by providing its services to private landowners and international clients needing wildfire management solutions. Additionally, Bridger Aerospace may leverage its fleet and technological expertise for other aerial services, contributing to its revenue streams. Partnerships with aircraft manufacturers and technology providers could further enhance their service offerings and profitability.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows strong revenue growth and improved cash flow from operations. However, persistent profitability issues and declining equity pose significant financial risks. The balance sheet leverage is manageable, but the marked decrease in equity is a concern.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings showed significant revenue growth, increasing from $46.4M in 2022 to $98.6M by 2024 and further to $108.8M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net income and EBIT across the periods. The gross profit margin is healthy at 39.8% for TTM, but the net profit margin is negative due to persistent losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 in TTM, indicating manageable leverage. However, stockholders' equity has decreased significantly from $77.6M in 2022 to $39.4M in TTM, reflecting potential concerns about financial stability. Additionally, the equity ratio stands at 14.3%, suggesting a high reliance on liabilities to finance assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow from operations turned positive in TTM, reaching $11.5M, a positive sign of cash generation capability. Free cash flow improved, though still low at $4.2M in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective cash conversion despite net losses.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
Gross Profit	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
EBITDA	24.84M	-43.44M	-13.01M	9.26M	-6.18M
Net Income	-15.57M	-77.36M	-61.62M	-17.00M	-13.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
Total Debt	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.88M	55.09M
Total Liabilities	237.33M	246.54M	228.39M	133.25M	69.18M
Stockholders Equity	53.48M	26.93M	77.59M	61.86M	62.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.27M	-47.87M	-45.31M	-47.74M	-61.12M
Operating Cash Flow	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
Investing Cash Flow	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
Financing Cash Flow	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.80, above the 50-day MA of 1.67, and below the 200-day MA of 2.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	79 Outperform	$1.08B	24.59	27.48%	1.85%	-1.05%	-2.78%
SNT	79 Outperform	$109.64M	65.29	-3.47%	―	―	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.90B	15.41	5.26%	1.89%	3.11%	-26.85%
MG	61 Neutral	$253.77M	16.70	7.70%	―	-2.09%	―
BAER	57 Neutral	$101.82M	―	-42.60%	―	51.36%	56.80%
GFAI	54 Neutral	$25.23M	―	-20.57%	―	0.18%	91.18%
KSCP	48 Neutral	$55.21M	―	-243.06%	―	-5.64%	35.09%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Elects Directors at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. During the meeting, two Class III directors, Jeffrey Kelter and Meghan Pasricha, were elected to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting. Additionally, the appointment of Crowe LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Buy with a $5.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Signs $46M Sale-Leaseback Agreement

On May 23, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement with SR Aviation Infrastructure for a sale and leaseback of its facilities at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport, with a purchase price of approximately $46 million. This transaction, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, aims to strengthen Bridger’s balance sheet by reducing its debt and interest expenses while maintaining its operational base through a 10-year lease agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.