Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $117.75M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 414.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.89
• Revenue Growth: 54.35%
• EPS Growth: 70.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 55,543,102
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 578,503
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 414,670
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.45
• 1Y Price Target: $5.25
• Price Target Upside: 147.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $133.09M

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-5.66% Downside)

Overall score is driven by improving financial strength (low leverage and strong cash flow growth) and a notably positive earnings outlook with guidance progress and strong operational execution. Technicals also support the trend with price above key moving averages. The main drag is valuation due to the negative P/E and lack of dividend yield data, with cost pressures and revenue timing (FMS delays) as key risks.

Positive Factors

Fleet Expansion

The acquisition of additional aircraft enhances Bridger's firefighting capabilities, positioning it for increased mission capacity and potential contract growth in the 2026 fire season.

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth reflects effective operational execution and market demand, supporting long-term financial stability and expansion opportunities.

Financial Flexibility

The new credit facility provides Bridger with the financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives, enhancing its competitive position and ability to secure new contracts.

Negative Factors

Operational Efficiency

Low profitability margins indicate challenges in operational efficiency, which may hinder the company's ability to maximize earnings and sustain long-term growth.

Cost Pressures

Rising costs, particularly in maintenance, could pressure margins and reduce profitability, affecting the company's financial performance and investment capacity.

FMS Revenue Delays

Delays in FMS revenue due to federal budgeting issues can impact short-term cash flow and revenue recognition, potentially affecting financial planning and operational execution.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by providing aerial firefighting services to government agencies and private entities. The company contracts with federal and state agencies for firefighting operations, which includes the deployment of aircraft for fire suppression during wildfire seasons. Additionally, BAER earns revenue from the leasing and operation of its aircraft, as well as from consulting services related to wildfire management. Significant partnerships with governmental bodies and other organizations involved in disaster response and environmental management enhance its revenue potential. The company's ability to secure long-term contracts and respond to emergency situations also contributes to its financial stability and growth.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows a positive growth trajectory with strong revenue and cash flow improvements. The balance sheet reflects reduced leverage and improved financial stability. While profitability metrics show progress, there is room for enhancing operational efficiency and profit margins.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings has shown a positive revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.67%. The gross profit margin has improved to 44.68% in the TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 4.96%, and the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects growth potential but also highlights areas for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a significant improvement in financial stability, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 in the TTM, indicating effective debt management. The return on equity has turned positive at 12.09%, reflecting improved profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates a stable financial position with reduced leverage risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust free cash flow growth rate of 142.97% in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.52 suggests efficient cash flow management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.65 indicates room for improvement in converting profits into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation with potential for further optimization.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	129.87M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
Gross Profit	57.43M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
EBITDA	68.68M	24.84M	-43.35M	-13.01M	9.43M	-7.95M
Net Income	6.44M	-15.57M	-77.36M	-42.13M	-6.54M	-12.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	310.99M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.12M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
Total Debt	211.45M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.89M	191.43M
Total Liabilities	233.06M	237.33M	246.54M	230.58M	133.25M	194.94M
Stockholders Equity	77.92M	53.48M	26.93M	75.40M	61.86M	-62.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.21M	5.27M	-47.87M	-35.50M	-47.74M	-61.12M
Operating Cash Flow	33.95M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.54M	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.59M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.82, above the 50-day MA of 1.79, and above the 200-day MA of 1.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.08 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	80 Outperform	$1.50B	34.32	25.03%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
BAER	69 Neutral	$117.75M	―	8.75%	―	54.35%	70.17%
SNT	67 Neutral	$99.84M	―	―	―	―	―
MG	66 Neutral	$424.64M	23.59	8.42%	―	-3.20%	60.03%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
EVLV	48 Neutral	$1.25B	-19.53	-51.67%	―	41.61%	-1.76%
KSCP	40 Underperform	$47.65M	-0.61	-164.48%	―	5.50%	51.32%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Expands Aerial Firefighting Fleet With Acquisition

On December 23, 2025, Bridger Aerospace, through its Spanish subsidiary Albacete Aero, completed the previously agreed $50 million acquisition of two Canadair CL-215T amphibious “Super Scooper” aircraft, engines and related assets from an affiliate of its MAB Funding joint venture, and formally announced the closing on December 30, 2025. The purchase, funded under a $210 million senior secured term loan facility, along with the addition of four air attack aircraft in the fourth quarter—two of which had already been leased and on contract in 2025—expands Bridger’s fleet to eight Super Scoopers, the largest privately operated scooper fleet worldwide, and 11 light fixed-wing air attack and surveillance aircraft, positioning the company for greater mission capacity and potential contract growth in the 2026 fire season and reinforcing its competitive standing in the aerial firefighting market.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Expands Fleet with New Aircraft Purchase

On November 21, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, through its subsidiary Albacete Aero, entered into an Aircraft Purchase Agreement with MAB Funding Designated Activity Company to acquire two Bombardier CL-215T aircraft for $50 million. This strategic acquisition, announced on November 24, 2025, expands Bridger’s Super Scooper fleet from six to eight aircraft, solidifying its position as the owner of the largest private Super Scooper fleet globally. The transaction is expected to enhance Bridger’s firefighting capabilities and revenue potential, with plans to deploy the aircraft in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Announces CFO Retirement and Leadership Changes

On November 21, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced the planned retirement of its Chief Financial Officer, Eric Gerratt, following the filing of the Company’s Annual Report in March 2026. Anne Hayes resigned from the Board to become Deputy CFO and is anticipated to assume the CFO role after Gerratt’s retirement, while Ernie Freedman was appointed to the Board and as Chairman of the Audit Committee. These leadership changes are part of Bridger’s strategy to ensure financial resilience and support its growth amid increasing wildfire challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Unveils Expansion Plans in November 2025

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings released an investor presentation in November 2025, outlining its plans for operational expansion and increased aircraft deployment to meet the growing demand for aerial firefighting services. The presentation highlights potential benefits from these expansions, while also acknowledging various risks and uncertainties that could impact the company’s future performance and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Secures $331.5M Credit Agreement

On October 28, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. entered into a Credit Agreement with Bain Capital Credit, LP, securing a $331.5 million senior secured facility to refinance existing debt and support future fleet expansion. This financial move, alongside a sale-leaseback of its facilities, enhances Bridger’s financial flexibility, enabling organic growth and fleet optimization to support expanded contracts and drive long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.