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Aura Minerals
(NASDAQ:AUGO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(45.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven mainly by improving operating performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (reaffirmed guidance, visible H2 catalysts, and significant shareholder returns). Technicals also support the rating with a strong uptrend, though momentum indicators are stretched. Offsetting factors are elevated balance-sheet leverage and a demanding valuation (high P/E), which increase sensitivity to execution and commodity-cycle volatility.
Positive Factors
Reserve & resource upside at MSG
A >100% P&P and large measured/indicated increases at MSG materially extend mine life and de-risk supply. This reserve growth supports multi-year production upside, lowers replacement risk, and enhances project optionality for phased capex and sustained throughput beyond near-term cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage versus earlier years
A structurally more aggressive capital structure raises vulnerability to commodity downturns and interest cost shocks. Even with low reported net-debt/EBITDA today, debt exceeding equity historically limits financial flexibility, increases refinancing risk, and magnifies execution sensitivity over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Reserve & resource upside at MSG
A >100% P&P and large measured/indicated increases at MSG materially extend mine life and de-risk supply. This reserve growth supports multi-year production upside, lowers replacement risk, and enhances project optionality for phased capex and sustained throughput beyond near-term cycles.
Read all positive factors
Aura Minerals (AUGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.50B
Dividend Yield3.01%
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.8
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth89.45%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,337
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.60
Shares Outstanding83,789,220
10 Day Avg. Volume824,440
30 Day Avg. Volume1,083,775
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)15.50
Price to Sales (P/S)4.47
P/FCF Ratio52.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$91.00Price Target Upside66.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)9.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.53B
Aura Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aura Minerals Inc. is an enterprise focused on the extraction and processing of gold and copper, strategically engaged in exploring, developing, and managing gold and various base metal projects across the Americas. Its active production sites com...
How the Company Makes Money
Aura Minerals makes money primarily by producing metals from its mining operations and selling those metals to third parties. Its key revenue stream is the sale of gold (typically sold as doré bars) and, where applicable, the sale of by-product me...
Aura Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive outlook driven by strong multi‑quarter EBITDA momentum, record net income, sizeable reserve/resource upgrades at MSG, on‑time/on‑budget project execution, low leverage and active capital returns (dividend + $200M buyback). Near‑term weaknesses (Q2 production softness, elevated AISC driven by MSG turnaround, hedge payments, FX and inflationary pressures, and site‑specific operational challenges) create timing risk for H2 but are balanced by clear visibility on operational fixes (ramp-ups, debottlenecking, higher grades) and significant long‑term upside from MSG and other projects. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, and management reiterated confidence in meeting annual guidance and improving H2 performance.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA Momentum
Adjusted EBITDA of $197M in Q2 and a record trailing-12-month (LTM) EBITDA of ~ $800M; the company has increased LTM EBITDA for 12 consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, demonstrating sustained margin expansion and operational leverage.
Negative Updates
Weaker Near‑term Production (Q2 Softness)
Total H1 production of ~158,000 oz; Q2 production weaker than Q1 due to mine sequencing and MSG turnaround. Specific mine declines: Borborema from 17k oz (Q1) to 14k oz (Q2, -17.6%), Minosa from 17k oz to 14k oz (Q2, -17.6%), Apoena from 7k oz to 6k oz (Q2, -14.3%). Management noted potential for some mines to be at the lower end of their guidance in the short term.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDA Momentum
Adjusted EBITDA of $197M in Q2 and a record trailing-12-month (LTM) EBITDA of ~ $800M; the company has increased LTM EBITDA for 12 consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, demonstrating sustained margin expansion and operational leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aura reaffirmed its guidance, with H1 production at 158,000 oz and management keeping H2 guidance at 182,000–232,000 oz (implying full‑year 340,000–390,000 oz versus LTM 313,000 oz) and expecting stronger Q3/Q4 volumes from MSG ramp‑up, Borborema debottlenecking and higher grades at Apoena/Aranzazu plus Almas capacity rising to ~3.0 Mtpa; Q2 results included revenues of $336M and adjusted EBITDA ~$197M (LTM EBITDA ≈$800M), recurring cash flow $80M (≈$120M ex gold‑hedge losses), cash ≈$250M, net debt $168M and net‑debt/EBITDA ~0.2x; AISC ran near $2,000/oz (≈$1,500–$1,600/oz ex‑MSG) with MSG aimed at ~80,000 oz in 2027 at AISC ~$2,000–$2,200/oz; YTD $54M was spent on expansion CapEx, $68M returned via dividends/buybacks, and the company announced a $60M dividend ($0.72/sh) plus a $200M buyback, while stressing projects remain on time and on budget.Aura Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 921.73M | 594.16M | 416.89M | 392.70M | 424.01M |
| Gross Profit | 732.03M | 534.87M | 251.27M | 126.02M | 125.69M | 188.34M |
| EBITDA | 591.62M | 152.97M | 149.80M | 106.42M | 135.01M | 192.13M |
| Net Income | 298.61M | -79.34M | -30.27M | 31.88M | 66.50M | 43.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.70B | 1.61B | 1.08B | 923.82M | 727.31M | 592.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 248.32M | 286.06M | 270.19M | 237.29M | 127.90M | 161.49M |
| Total Debt | 458.01M | 411.17M | 385.35M | 289.38M | 180.08M | 100.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.25B | 1.34B | 857.31M | 609.02M | 417.18M | 320.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 456.47M | 265.74M | 222.96M | 314.80M | 310.13M | 272.27M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 175.56M | 78.50M | 41.66M | 28.85M | -7.00M | 51.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 379.87M | 257.93M | 222.24M | 124.95M | 96.36M | 131.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -258.10M | -253.98M | -176.40M | -93.93M | -157.50M | -78.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -41.46M | 10.47M | 5.20M | 79.43M | 21.88M | -8.63M |
Aura Minerals Risk Analysis
Aura Minerals disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aura Minerals reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aura Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $441.61M | 7.20 | 24.36% | 3.00% | 35.48% | 72.78% | |
68 Neutral | $548.92M | 21.67 | 24.58% | ― | 66.79% | 119.77% | |
67 Neutral | $2.08B | 2.30 | 32.58% | 2.51% | 32.68% | 91.90% | |
66 Neutral | $6.50B | 20.80 | 88.71% | 4.11% | 89.45% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $2.56B | -22.07 | -46.86% | ― | ― | 46.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AUGO
Aura Minerals
74.85
47.73
175.95%
DRD
Drdgold
23.78
9.12
62.25%
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
22.74
0.52
2.35%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
26.57
22.80
604.77%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
31.64
5.68
21.88%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
6.17
2.18
54.64%
Aura Minerals Corporate Events
Aura Minerals Posts Record H1 2026 Output and Details Multi-Mine Growth Plan
Jul 10, 2026
On July 10, 2026, Aura Minerals reported preliminary production figures showing Q2 2026 output of 75,437 gold equivalent ounces, down 8% from Q1 but 18% higher than a year earlier, with sales rising 25% year-on-year to 77,764 GEO, driven by strong...
Aura Minerals Launches US$200 Million Share and BDR Buyback Program
Jun 23, 2026
On June 18, 2026, Aura Minerals announced that its board approved repurchase programs authorizing the buyback of up to US$200 million of common shares and Brazilian Depositary Receipts, funded with existing cash and running until as late as June 1...
Aura Minerals Shareholders Back Board Slate and Governance Changes at June 16 AGM
Jun 17, 2026
Aura Minerals held its annual general and special meeting of shareholders on June 16, 2026, with 68,804,529 shares represented, equal to 82.116% of the 83,789,223 shares outstanding, reflecting high shareholder participation. Shareholders voted ma...
Aura Minerals Files May 2026 Corporate Update Highlighting Production Growth and Expanded Reserves
May 26, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc. is a diversified Latin American gold and copper producer operating six mines and advancing additional projects in Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and Colombia. The company targets growth in gold-equivalent output while relyi...
Aura Minerals Showcases Record 2025 Output and Sustainability Gains in New Report
May 19, 2026
Aura Minerals has released its 2025 Sustainability Report, detailing performance and initiatives across its operations from January 1 to December 31, 2025. The report follows GRI and SASB standards and aligns with World Gold Council and UN Global ...
Aura Minerals Sets June 16 Virtual AGM to Vote on Board, Auditors and Charter Overhaul
May 14, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc. has called its 2026 Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders for June 16, 2026, to be held virtually via live webcast, reflecting an ongoing shift toward digital shareholder engagement. Investors of record as of May 4,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.