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Aura Minerals Inc. J (AUGO)
NASDAQ:AUGO
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Aura Minerals (AUGO) AI Stock Analysis

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AUGO

Aura Minerals

(NASDAQ:AUGO)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$117.00
▲(7.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is supported by strong technical uptrend and constructive earnings-call outlook for production growth and cash generation. The main constraints are weaker financial quality from recent net losses and higher leverage, plus valuation uncertainty due to the negative P/E and near-term cost inflation risk in 2026.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & EBITDA trend
Aura has rapidly scaled operating cash flow and EBITDA, producing recurring free cash flow above $250M for the year and record quarterly EBITDA. That durable cash generation supports funding growth projects, dividends and debt service, reducing execution risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage trend
Despite recent low net debt/EBITDA, longer‑term balance sheet metrics show materially higher leverage and negative ROE in 2024–2025. Elevated debt-to-equity reduces financial headroom for further M&A or cost shocks and increases refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & EBITDA trend
Aura has rapidly scaled operating cash flow and EBITDA, producing recurring free cash flow above $250M for the year and record quarterly EBITDA. That durable cash generation supports funding growth projects, dividends and debt service, reducing execution risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors

Aura Minerals (AUGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Aura Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. The company's producing assets include the San Andres gold mine in Honduras; the Ernesto/Pau-a-Piqu...
How the Company Makes Money
Aura Minerals primarily makes money by selling metals produced from its mining operations. Its core revenue stream is the sale of gold (commonly produced as doré bars that are sold to refiners or metal traders) and, where applicable, the sale of c...

Aura Minerals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational and financial momentum (record quarterly and annual production, record adjusted EBITDA, robust cash generation, large reserve uplift at Borborema, successful MSG acquisition with immediate EBITDA contribution, improved market liquidity after NASDAQ listing, and continued dividends) while acknowledging near‑term costs and noncash accounting impacts (derivative losses), a turnaround year for MSG that raises consolidated AISC and sustaining CapEx, temporary operational setbacks (Borborema CIL issues) and guidance uncertainty due to multiple simultaneous projects and reserve cutoff adjustments. Overall the tone is upbeat regarding long‑term value creation and growth, with transparent communication about short‑term cost and execution items.
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Production
Q4 production of 82,000 gold-equivalent ounces (up 11% vs Q3 2025 and up 23% vs Q4 2024); full-year production of 280,000 ounces (≈+9% at constant price).
Negative Updates
Net Loss Driven by Derivative Mark-to-Market
Reported net loss of $20 million in Q4 due primarily to noncash unrealized losses on gold derivatives of about $82 million (plus $22 million of realized derivative losses in the quarter). Adjusted net income excluding these items was $73 million for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Record Quarterly and Annual Production
Q4 production of 82,000 gold-equivalent ounces (up 11% vs Q3 2025 and up 23% vs Q4 2024); full-year production of 280,000 ounces (≈+9% at constant price).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 assumes full‑year contribution from Borborema and MSG and continued growth toward >600 kozpa: Borborema is guided to 65–77 koz, MSG to ~50–60 koz in a turnaround year (MSG bought for ~US$76M), and overall company AISC is expected to rise vs 2025 by roughly US$262–407 (2025 consolidated AISC finished ~US$1,368; Q4 AISC excluding MSG was US$1,363; Q4 cash cost/GOE ~US$1,070), with 70–80% of the AISC increase attributable to MSG (MSG AISC was >US$3,000 in 2025 but is targeted <US$2,000 in steady state). Sustaining CapEx is forecast to increase ~US$15–17M (≈70–75% due to MSG) while expansion CapEx funds include Almas plant expansion to 3 Mtpa (targeted by year‑end, potential to 4 Mtpa), Borborema filter upgrade and Era Dorada early works (full build ~US$380M if approved). Recent financial context: Q4 adjusted EBITDA US$208M (FY ~US$547M), recurring FCF ~US$94M in Q4 and >US$250M for FY, year‑end cash ~US$290M, net debt/EBITDA <0.3x; dividends remain generous (US$0.66/sh qtr; LTM yield ~6.2%), reserves/resource update and 20‑F/AIF due end‑March (Borborema road move released ~670 koz; Borborema reserves +82%).

Aura Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong recent revenue growth and very strong operating margins, with improving operating and free cash flow. However, net losses in 2024–2025 and rising leverage (debt-to-equity above 1.5) weaken earnings quality and increase financial risk.
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
39
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue921.73M594.16M416.89M392.70M424.01M
Gross Profit526.86M251.27M126.02M125.69M188.34M
EBITDA552.62M149.80M106.42M135.01M192.13M
Net Income-79.34M-30.27M31.88M66.50M43.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.61B1.08B923.82M727.31M592.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments286.06M270.19M237.29M127.90M161.49M
Total Debt411.17M385.35M289.38M180.08M100.97M
Total Liabilities1.34B857.31M609.02M417.18M320.20M
Stockholders Equity265.74M222.96M314.80M310.13M272.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow78.50M41.66M28.85M-7.00M51.72M
Operating Cash Flow257.93M222.24M124.95M96.36M131.19M
Investing Cash Flow-253.98M-176.40M-93.93M-157.50M-78.16M
Financing Cash Flow10.47M5.20M79.43M21.88M-8.63M

Aura Minerals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price109.14
Price Trends
50DMA
80.61
Positive
100DMA
66.35
Positive
200DMA
48.26
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
8.83
Negative
RSI
72.93
Negative
STOCH
87.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 109.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.69, above the 50-day MA of 80.61, and above the 200-day MA of 48.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.93 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUGO.

Aura Minerals Risk Analysis

Aura Minerals disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aura Minerals reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aura Minerals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$2.66B0.6132.58%1.02%30.05%73.40%
69
Neutral
$505.42M9.2522.79%2.06%38.04%424.35%
66
Neutral
$739.73M34.9324.50%61.35%34.33%
64
Neutral
$8.81B-51.90-36.57%2.81%41.07%18.89%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
55
Neutral
$4.00B-25.29-80.76%40.02%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AUGO
Aura Minerals
97.12
78.62
424.97%
DRD
Drdgold
29.39
13.51
85.11%
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
24.35
10.64
77.59%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
39.41
36.00
1055.72%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
42.90
25.77
150.44%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.80
3.00
107.14%

Aura Minerals Corporate Events

Aura Minerals Hikes 2026 CAPEX as Board Greenlights Era Dorada Construction
Apr 15, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Aura Minerals&#8217; board approved the start of construction of the Era Dorada gold project in Guatemala, triggering a sharp revision to its 2026 capital expenditure plan. Expansion CAPEX guidance for 2026 was lifted from a pri...
Aura Minerals Board Clears US$382 Million Era Dorada Gold Project With Expanded Social and Environmental Commitments
Apr 14, 2026
Aura Minerals said on April 13, 2026 that its board has granted full approval for the development of the Era Dorada underground gold project in Guatemala, with total capital expenditures estimated at US$382 million and average annual production fo...
Aura Minerals Posts Record Q1 2026 Production, Stays on Track With Guidance
Apr 10, 2026
On April 10, 2026, Aura Minerals reported preliminary Q1 2026 production of 82,137 gold equivalent ounces at current prices, marking another record quarter and a 37% increase versus Q1 2025, with sales of 81,364 GEO and overall performance trackin...
Aura Minerals Doubles Proven and Probable Reserves in 2025 Update, Triples Inferred Resources
Apr 1, 2026
Aura Minerals reported on April 1, 2026 that its updated mineral reserves and resources for the year ended 2025 showed a sharp expansion across its six operating mines and key development projects. Proven and probable reserves rose to 7.22 million...
Aura Minerals Files March 2026 Form 6-K With New Corporate Presentation
Mar 10, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc., a diversified gold and copper producer listed on Nasdaq and Brazil&#8217;s B3, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for March 2026. The filing, dated March 9, 2026 and signed by Chief Financial Offi...
Aura Minerals Wins S&P Credit Upgrade as Gold Prices and Output Climb
Mar 4, 2026
Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and base metals miner with operations in Honduras, Brazil and Mexico and additional projects across Latin America, pursues a 360&#176; Mining strategy that seeks to balance growth, returns and social impact. The company&...
Aura Minerals Secures Road Relocation Deal, Boosting Borborema Gold Reserves by 82%
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Aura Minerals announced it had signed a cooperation agreement with Brazil&#8217;s DNIT to relocate a federal road that crosses its Borborema gold mine, removing a key physical constraint on pit expansion. The company also rel...
Aura Minerals Posts Record 2025 Results and Ramps Up Growth Following MSG Acquisition
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Aura reported record 2025 financial and operational results, driven by higher production, stronger metal prices and stable costs, with full-year adjusted EBITDA more than doubling to US$547 million and net revenue rising 55% ...
Aura Minerals Lifts Payout With US$0.66 Dividend After Record Q4 2025
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Aura Minerals Inc. announced that its board approved a dividend of US$0.66 per common share, totaling about US$55.1 million and exceeding the minimum set out in its dividend policy tied to adjusted EBITDA and capital expendit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 02, 2026