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Aura Minerals Inc. J (AUGO)
NASDAQ:AUGO

Aura Minerals (AUGO) AI Stock Analysis

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AUGO

Aura Minerals

(NASDAQ:AUGO)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(69.58% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong revenue and cash flow trends are outweighed by losses and high leverage—while technicals are notably strong with a clear uptrend and positive momentum. Valuation is held back by a negative P/E despite a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
The ability to generate cash from operations despite net losses indicates resilience in cash flow management, which is crucial for funding operations and strategic investments.
Operational Efficiency
Improved gross profit margin suggests better cost management and operational efficiency, which can enhance profitability and provide a competitive edge in the market.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates that Aura Minerals is expanding its market presence and product demand, which can support long-term business sustainability and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Declining Free Cash Flow
A significant decline in free cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities or reduce debt.
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges highlight operational inefficiencies or cost pressures, which could hinder the company's ability to generate sustainable profits and shareholder returns.
High Leverage
High leverage can pose financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, which may impact long-term financial stability.

Aura Minerals (AUGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Aura Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. The company's producing assets include the San Andres gold mine in Honduras; the Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique gold mine in Brazil; and the Aranzazu copper mine located in Mexico. It also holds interests in Sao Francisco gold mine, Almas gold project, and Matupá gold project in Brazil, as well as the Tolda Fria gold project in Colombia and the Gold Road Mine located in Arizona. The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. Aura Minerals Inc. is headquartered in Miami, Florida. Aura Minerals Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Northwestern Enterprises Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyAura Minerals generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and copper produced at its mining operations. The company operates several mines, including the Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique and the San Andres mines, which contribute significantly to its output. Revenue is derived from the direct sale of these metals to various customers, including trading companies and industrial users. Additionally, Aura Minerals benefits from fluctuations in commodity prices, which can impact its earnings. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market presence, thereby contributing to its overall revenue streams.

Aura Minerals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted the company's strong financial performance with record-high EBITDA and a substantial dividend yield. Successful project completions and ongoing expansions indicate positive growth prospects. However, these positives were tempered by a net loss driven by market-to-market losses, increased leverage, and some production challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High EBITDA
Achieved a record high EBITDA for the quarter at $81 million, aided by increasing gold prices.
Successful Borborema Project Completion
Completed construction of Borborema on time and on budget, with commercial production projected for Q3.
Strong Dividend Yield
Announced a dividend distribution of $30 million, resulting in an 11% yield over the last 12 months.
Expansion of Production Capabilities
Ongoing ramp-up of Borborema and future growth projects planned, aiming for significant production increase.
Positive Adjusted Net Income
Adjusted net income, excluding market-to-market losses, was a positive $27 million for the quarter.
Safety Achievements
Maintained a high safety standard with only one lost time incident over two years.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Due to Market-to-Market Liabilities
Reported a net loss of $73 million due to non-cash market-to-market liabilities on gold derivatives.
Lower Production and Revenue
Net revenues decreased by 6% compared to the previous quarter due to lower production from mine sequencing.
Increased Leverage
Net debt increased to $272 million, attributed to final phase of Borborema construction and Bluestone acquisition.
Fluctuating All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining cash costs increased due to investment phase at Apoena, impacting cost stability.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, Aura Minerals provided robust guidance highlighting their continued growth trajectory. The company achieved a gold equivalent production of 60,000 ounces, albeit 9% below the previous quarter and 7% below Q1 of the previous year. Despite this, Aura recorded a record-high EBITDA of $81 million, driven by favorable gold prices, which stood at $2,786, and have since approached $3,400. The company reported a net loss of $72 million, attributed to mark-to-market losses on gold hedges, yet maintained a positive adjusted net income of $27 million. Aura successfully completed the construction of the Borborema project, aligning with time and budget projections, and anticipates commercial production in Q3. The company also announced a $30 million dividend for the quarter, reflecting an 11% dividend yield over the last 12 months. Furthermore, Aura highlighted strategic growth through M&A activities, including the acquisition of Bluestone, and emphasized plans to enhance liquidity through a U.S. public offering. The guidance underscores Aura's commitment to delivering shareholder value while maintaining high safety standards across its operations.

Aura Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: strong TTM revenue growth (13.48%) and improved gross margin (49.37%) plus very strong free cash flow growth (329.91%), but overall profitability is weak (net margin -8.88%) and leverage is high (debt-to-equity 2.68) with negative ROE.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Aura Minerals shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate is strong at 13.48%, indicating positive momentum. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -8.88% and a declining EBIT margin. The gross profit margin has improved to 49.37%, suggesting better cost management. Overall, while revenue growth is promising, the negative net income and declining margins are concerning.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.68 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 22.57%, showing a moderate level of equity financing. While the company has grown its asset base, the high leverage and negative ROE are key weaknesses.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Aura Minerals demonstrates strong cash flow performance, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 329.91% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 13.08%, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net losses. Overall, the cash flow position is robust, but the low free cash flow to net income ratio is a concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue771.59M594.16M416.89M392.70M424.01M299.87M
Gross Profit407.62M251.27M126.02M125.69M188.34M115.11M
EBITDA160.96M149.80M106.42M135.01M192.13M107.31M
Net Income-42.83M-30.27M31.88M66.50M43.50M68.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.43B1.08B923.82M727.31M592.48M536.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments351.41M270.19M237.29M127.90M161.49M118.12M
Total Debt455.92M385.35M289.38M180.08M100.97M73.69M
Total Liabilities1.11B857.31M609.02M417.18M320.20M223.80M
Stockholders Equity322.43M222.96M314.80M310.13M272.27M312.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow64.45M41.66M28.85M-7.00M51.72M35.21M
Operating Cash Flow265.10M222.24M124.95M96.36M131.19M87.18M
Investing Cash Flow-215.39M-176.40M-93.93M-157.50M-78.16M-51.06M
Financing Cash Flow118.68M5.20M79.43M21.88M-8.63M44.48M

Aura Minerals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price40.10
Price Trends
50DMA
50.83
Positive
100DMA
42.44
Positive
200DMA
33.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.77
Negative
RSI
56.43
Neutral
STOCH
65.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.04, below the 50-day MA of 50.83, and above the 200-day MA of 33.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUGO.

Aura Minerals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$529.72M10.4920.25%2.06%38.04%424.35%
73
Outperform
$2.82B22.2328.10%1.02%30.05%73.40%
72
Outperform
$562.26M51.8318.37%61.35%34.33%
64
Neutral
$5.32B-107.512.81%41.07%18.89%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
52
Neutral
$3.10B-22.92-374.60%40.02%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AUGO
Aura Minerals
63.69
50.59
386.18%
DRD
Drdgold
31.82
21.43
206.17%
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
27.44
18.22
197.61%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
37.35
34.95
1456.25%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
36.06
23.30
182.60%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.99
3.69
160.43%

Aura Minerals Corporate Events

Aura Minerals Hits Record Q4 and 2025 Output, Meets Upper End of Guidance
Jan 12, 2026

On January 12, 2026, Aura Minerals reported preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 production results showing record output and delivery against its 2025 guidance. Q4 2025 production reached 82,067 gold equivalent ounces (GEO) at current prices, the highest quarterly level in the company’s history and up 11% from Q3 2025 and 23% from Q4 2024, while full-year 2025 production rose to 280,414 GEO, 5% above 2024 and within the upper half of its 266,000–300,000 GEO guidance range. Performance was supported by ramp-up gains at Borborema, higher output at Almas and Apoena versus internal expectations, and the initial consolidation of MSG following its December 2, 2025 acquisition, offsetting price-related GEO conversion declines at Aranzazu and weather and sequencing impacts at Minosa. Management highlighted that these results, alongside improved recoveries at Borborema and the contribution from recent acquisitions, reinforce Aura’s growth trajectory and position the company to scale production further in the coming years, strengthening its competitive standing among mid-tier regional miners.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUGO) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aura Minerals stock, see the AUGO Stock Forecast page.

Aura Minerals Secures Construction License and Starts Early Works at Era Dorada Project in Guatemala
Jan 6, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Aura Minerals announced it has secured the construction license and begun early works for its Era Dorada underground gold project in Jutiapa, southeast Guatemala, a year after acquiring project owner Bluestone Resources in January 2025. The company has initiated preparatory activities such as environmental programs, vegetation clearing, road detours and access, mine dewatering and platform preparation, advancing Era Dorada from licensing into on-the-ground development. Management highlighted extensive engagement with local authorities and communities, including over 853 hours of dialogue roundtables and a formal commitment to underground-only operations, positioning the project as a flagship example of Aura’s responsible mining strategy and potentially strengthening its growth pipeline and social license in Central America.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUGO) stock is a Hold with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aura Minerals stock, see the AUGO Stock Forecast page.

Aura Minerals Files S-K 1300 Feasibility Study for Era Dorada Gold Project
Jan 5, 2026

On January 5, 2026, Aura Minerals filed a Form 6-K in the United States disclosing a S-K 1300 Technical Report Summary and definitive feasibility study for its Era Dorada Gold Project in Jutiapa, Guatemala, with an effective and report date of December 31, 2025. The filing, supported by external consultants Ausenco do Brasil Engenharia, Snowden Optiro and Kirkham Geosystems, formalizes detailed technical, geological, resource, reserve, engineering, cost and economic analysis for the gold project, marking a key step in advancing Era Dorada within Aura’s project pipeline and providing investors and other stakeholders with a comprehensive, regulator-standard assessment of the asset’s development potential and associated risks.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUGO) stock is a Hold with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aura Minerals stock, see the AUGO Stock Forecast page.

Aura Minerals Updates Growth Outlook with New Acquisitions
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Aura Minerals announced an update to its growth outlook, highlighting the potential for annualized gold equivalent production to exceed 600,000 ounces in the coming years. This projection is driven by the integration of new assets, such as the Era Dorada Project and the recently acquired MSG, as well as the expansion of existing operations. The company has been executing a strategy focused on growth through greenfield projects, mine life extension, and strategic acquisitions, which has resulted in increased production and trading volume. However, the timeline for achieving the projected production levels remains uncertain and subject to future approvals and conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUGO) stock is a Buy with a $52.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aura Minerals stock, see the AUGO Stock Forecast page.

Aura Minerals Completes Feasibility Study for Era Dorada Project
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Aura Minerals announced the completion of a Feasibility Study for the Era Dorada Project in Guatemala, previously known as the Cerro Blanco Project. The study outlines the potential for an underground gold mine with an anticipated production of 111,000 ounces of gold equivalent annually for the first four years. The project, acquired through the purchase of Bluestone Resources Inc. in January 2025, is expected to have a total production of approximately 1.75 million gold equivalent ounces over a 16.8-year mine life. With an initial capital expenditure of $382 million and a payback period of 2.82 years, the project boasts an after-tax net present value of $1.344 billion and an internal rate of return of 35.6%. The Era Dorada Project is strategically positioned to leverage local labor and infrastructure, aiming to contribute significantly to Aura’s growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUGO) stock is a Buy with a $52.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aura Minerals stock, see the AUGO Stock Forecast page.

Aura Minerals Completes Acquisition of Serra Grande Gold Mine
Dec 2, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Aura Minerals Inc. announced the completion of its acquisition of the Mineração Serra Grande gold mine in Goiás, Brazil, from AngloGold Ashanti. The transaction, valued at approximately $76 million, includes upfront cash and deferred payments based on net smelter returns. The acquisition is part of Aura’s strategy to enhance production and efficiency at the mine, which has historically produced significant amounts of gold. This move is expected to strengthen Aura’s position in the mining industry by expanding its resource base and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUGO) stock is a Hold with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aura Minerals stock, see the AUGO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026