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Aura Minerals Inc. J (AUGO)
NASDAQ:AUGO

Aura Minerals (AUGO) AI Stock Analysis

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AUGO

Aura Minerals

(NASDAQ:AUGO)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
â–²(19.70% Upside)
Aura Minerals' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance and strong technical momentum. The company's robust revenue growth and cash flow are offset by profitability challenges and high leverage. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, but valuation concerns due to negative earnings and low dividend yield weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
The ability to generate cash from operations despite net losses indicates resilience in cash flow management, which is crucial for funding operations and strategic investments.
Operational Efficiency
Improved gross profit margin suggests better cost management and operational efficiency, which can enhance profitability and provide a competitive edge in the market.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates that Aura Minerals is expanding its market presence and product demand, which can support long-term business sustainability and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Declining Free Cash Flow
A significant decline in free cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities or reduce debt.
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges highlight operational inefficiencies or cost pressures, which could hinder the company's ability to generate sustainable profits and shareholder returns.
High Leverage
High leverage can pose financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, which may impact long-term financial stability.

Aura Minerals (AUGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Aura Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. The company's producing assets include the San Andres gold mine in Honduras; the Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique gold mine in Brazil; and the Aranzazu copper mine located in Mexico. It also holds interests in Sao Francisco gold mine, Almas gold project, and Matupá gold project in Brazil, as well as the Tolda Fria gold project in Colombia and the Gold Road Mine located in Arizona. The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. Aura Minerals Inc. is headquartered in Miami, Florida. Aura Minerals Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Northwestern Enterprises Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyAura Minerals generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and copper produced at its mining operations. The company operates several mines, including the Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique and the San Andres mines, which contribute significantly to its output. Revenue is derived from the direct sale of these metals to various customers, including trading companies and industrial users. Additionally, Aura Minerals benefits from fluctuations in commodity prices, which can impact its earnings. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market presence, thereby contributing to its overall revenue streams.

Aura Minerals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted the company's strong financial performance with record-high EBITDA and a substantial dividend yield. Successful project completions and ongoing expansions indicate positive growth prospects. However, these positives were tempered by a net loss driven by market-to-market losses, increased leverage, and some production challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High EBITDA
Achieved a record high EBITDA for the quarter at $81 million, aided by increasing gold prices.
Successful Borborema Project Completion
Completed construction of Borborema on time and on budget, with commercial production projected for Q3.
Strong Dividend Yield
Announced a dividend distribution of $30 million, resulting in an 11% yield over the last 12 months.
Expansion of Production Capabilities
Ongoing ramp-up of Borborema and future growth projects planned, aiming for significant production increase.
Positive Adjusted Net Income
Adjusted net income, excluding market-to-market losses, was a positive $27 million for the quarter.
Safety Achievements
Maintained a high safety standard with only one lost time incident over two years.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Due to Market-to-Market Liabilities
Reported a net loss of $73 million due to non-cash market-to-market liabilities on gold derivatives.
Lower Production and Revenue
Net revenues decreased by 6% compared to the previous quarter due to lower production from mine sequencing.
Increased Leverage
Net debt increased to $272 million, attributed to final phase of Borborema construction and Bluestone acquisition.
Fluctuating All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining cash costs increased due to investment phase at Apoena, impacting cost stability.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, Aura Minerals provided robust guidance highlighting their continued growth trajectory. The company achieved a gold equivalent production of 60,000 ounces, albeit 9% below the previous quarter and 7% below Q1 of the previous year. Despite this, Aura recorded a record-high EBITDA of $81 million, driven by favorable gold prices, which stood at $2,786, and have since approached $3,400. The company reported a net loss of $72 million, attributed to mark-to-market losses on gold hedges, yet maintained a positive adjusted net income of $27 million. Aura successfully completed the construction of the Borborema project, aligning with time and budget projections, and anticipates commercial production in Q3. The company also announced a $30 million dividend for the quarter, reflecting an 11% dividend yield over the last 12 months. Furthermore, Aura highlighted strategic growth through M&A activities, including the acquisition of Bluestone, and emphasized plans to enhance liquidity through a U.S. public offering. The guidance underscores Aura's commitment to delivering shareholder value while maintaining high safety standards across its operations.

Aura Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue594.16M416.89M392.70M444.56M299.87M
Gross Profit251.27M126.02M125.69M183.01M121.88M
EBITDA149.80M106.42M127.68M192.13M117.52M
Net Income-30.27M31.88M66.50M43.50M68.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.08B923.82M727.31M592.48M536.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments270.19M237.29M127.90M161.49M117.78M
Total Debt385.35M372.24M253.29M159.14M73.37M
Total Liabilities857.31M609.02M417.18M320.20M223.48M
Stockholders Equity222.96M314.80M310.13M272.27M312.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow41.66M28.85M-7.00M51.72M38.39M
Operating Cash Flow222.24M124.95M96.36M131.19M90.36M
Investing Cash Flow-176.40M-97.66M-157.50M-78.16M-51.06M
Financing Cash Flow5.20M79.43M21.88M-8.63M41.30M

Aura Minerals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price40.10
Price Trends
50DMA
36.47
Positive
100DMA
32.76
Positive
200DMA
26.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.63
Negative
RSI
75.92
Negative
STOCH
92.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.42, above the 50-day MA of 36.47, and above the 200-day MA of 26.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.92 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUGO.

Aura Minerals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison

Aura Minerals Corporate Events

Aura Minerals Updates Growth Outlook with New Acquisitions
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Aura Minerals announced an update to its growth outlook, highlighting the potential for annualized gold equivalent production to exceed 600,000 ounces in the coming years. This projection is driven by the integration of new assets, such as the Era Dorada Project and the recently acquired MSG, as well as the expansion of existing operations. The company has been executing a strategy focused on growth through greenfield projects, mine life extension, and strategic acquisitions, which has resulted in increased production and trading volume. However, the timeline for achieving the projected production levels remains uncertain and subject to future approvals and conditions.

Aura Minerals Completes Feasibility Study for Era Dorada Project
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Aura Minerals announced the completion of a Feasibility Study for the Era Dorada Project in Guatemala, previously known as the Cerro Blanco Project. The study outlines the potential for an underground gold mine with an anticipated production of 111,000 ounces of gold equivalent annually for the first four years. The project, acquired through the purchase of Bluestone Resources Inc. in January 2025, is expected to have a total production of approximately 1.75 million gold equivalent ounces over a 16.8-year mine life. With an initial capital expenditure of $382 million and a payback period of 2.82 years, the project boasts an after-tax net present value of $1.344 billion and an internal rate of return of 35.6%. The Era Dorada Project is strategically positioned to leverage local labor and infrastructure, aiming to contribute significantly to Aura’s growth strategy.

Aura Minerals Completes Acquisition of Serra Grande Gold Mine
Dec 2, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Aura Minerals Inc. announced the completion of its acquisition of the Mineração Serra Grande gold mine in Goiás, Brazil, from AngloGold Ashanti. The transaction, valued at approximately $76 million, includes upfront cash and deferred payments based on net smelter returns. The acquisition is part of Aura’s strategy to enhance production and efficiency at the mine, which has historically produced significant amounts of gold. This move is expected to strengthen Aura’s position in the mining industry by expanding its resource base and operational capabilities.

Aura Minerals Achieves Commercial Production at Borborema Gold Mine
Sep 23, 2025

Aura Minerals Inc. announced that commercial production has commenced at its Borborema gold mine in Brazil as of September 22, 2025. The mine is operating above 80% of its design capacity, processing 4,500 tonnes per day with recoveries consistently above 90%. This marks Aura’s fifth operating mine and is expected to be its second-largest producer, with project reserves of 812,000 ounces of gold and significant potential for increased reserves. The Borborema project exemplifies Aura’s commitment to operational excellence, safety, and sustainability, utilizing 100% treated greywater for all water needs, reflecting an environmentally responsible approach.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 30, 2025