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TPG Telecom Limited (AU:TPG)
ASX:TPG

TPG Telecom Limited (TPG) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TPG

TPG Telecom Limited

(Sydney:TPG)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$4.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong and improving cash generation, partially offset by weaker income-statement quality (flat-to-down revenue and volatile profitability) and rising leverage. Technicals are mildly supportive with price above key moving averages and neutral momentum. Valuation is the main headwind due to the high P/E, despite the very high dividend yield.

TPG Telecom Limited (TPG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

TPG Telecom Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTPG Telecom Limited provides telecommunications to consumers, business, enterprise, government and wholesale customers services. The company owns and operates fixed and mobile network infrastructure, including fixed voice and data network with approximately 28,000 kilometers of metropolitan and inter-capital fiber networks; and 7,000 submarine cable systems; and fiber internet, enterprise ethernet, cloud, SD-WAN, mobility, internet of things, and answering and messaging services. It provides its fixed and mobile products under the Vodafone, TPG, iiNet, Internode, Lebara, and AAPT brands. The company was formerly known as Vodafone Hutchison Australia Limited and changed its name to TPG Telecom Limited in June 2020.TPG Telecom Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyTPG generates revenue primarily through its various telecommunications services, including fixed-line broadband and mobile subscriptions. The company's revenue model is driven by monthly subscription fees from customers using its internet and mobile services. Key revenue streams include retail broadband plans, mobile phone plans, and wholesale services provided to other telecommunications companies. TPG also benefits from significant partnerships, such as those with infrastructure providers that allow it to offer competitive pricing and enhanced services. Additionally, the company's recent merger with Vodafone Hutchison Australia has expanded its market presence and customer base, further contributing to its earnings.

TPG Telecom Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cash flow is a key strength with operating cash flow improving to ~$2.09B and free cash flow up sharply to ~$1.50B in 2025. The balance sheet is serviceable but leverage is trending higher (debt-to-equity ~0.78 in 2025) and returns on equity are low (~1.5%). The main drag is the income statement: revenue has been flat-to-down and profitability has been volatile, including a loss in 2024 and only modest profitability in 2025.
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Revenue has been essentially flat to down in recent years (down ~4% in 2025 and roughly flat in 2024), which limits operating leverage. Profitability is mixed: 2025 returned to a small profit (net margin ~2.6%) after a loss in 2024, but earnings have been volatile versus the stronger 2020–2022 period. Operating profitability is moderate (2025 operating margin ~7.7%) with solid EBITDA margin (~32.7%), but the swingy net results and inconsistent margins temper the score.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Leverage is moderate for the sector: debt-to-equity has risen to ~0.78 in 2025 from ~0.54–0.56 in 2023–2024, indicating increasing balance-sheet risk. Equity remains sizeable in absolute terms, but returns on equity are low (about 1.5% in 2025) and were negative in 2024, pointing to weaker capital efficiency. Overall, the balance sheet looks serviceable, but the trend in leverage and subdued returns are key watch items.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow has been consistently strong and improved to ~$2.09B in 2025, with free cash flow rising sharply to ~$1.50B (up ~52% in 2025). Free cash flow has generally covered reported earnings well (notably in 2024 when earnings were negative yet cash flow remained robust), supporting financial flexibility. The main offset is that free cash flow conversion versus net income is not consistently high year to year, but overall cash flow momentum is positive.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.04B5.52B5.53B5.42B5.29B
Gross Profit799.00M3.20B764.00M676.00M636.00M
EBITDA1.65B1.34B1.54B2.14B1.73B
Net Income129.00M-107.00M49.00M513.00M110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.23B19.09B19.67B20.33B20.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments72.00M42.00M116.00M114.00M202.00M
Total Debt6.77B6.30B6.31B5.66B5.71B
Total Liabilities6.56B7.92B8.05B8.43B8.41B
Stockholders Equity8.67B11.17B11.62B11.90B11.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.50B1.14B660.00M79.00M532.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.09B1.93B1.52B1.07B1.47B
Investing Cash Flow3.78B-1.16B-1.15B-97.00M-920.00M
Financing Cash Flow-5.84B-838.00M-370.00M-1.06B-467.00M

TPG Telecom Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3.88
Positive
100DMA
3.85
Positive
200DMA
3.77
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Negative
RSI
58.27
Neutral
STOCH
67.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.90, above the 50-day MA of 3.88, and above the 200-day MA of 3.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TPG.

TPG Telecom Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
AU$58.76B26.0714.73%3.91%0.86%34.23%
64
Neutral
€1.51B106.550.21%31.16%
62
Neutral
AU$1.60B48.047.40%1.75%0.42%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
60
Neutral
AU$7.85B57.02-0.93%47.35%-5.04%-349.38%
54
Neutral
AU$1.46B57.605.89%1.27%18.74%14.89%
53
Neutral
AU$3.48B364.941.57%34.09%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TPG
TPG Telecom Limited
4.00
0.91
29.37%
AU:TLS
Telstra Corporation Limited
5.23
1.17
28.94%
AU:SLC
Superloop Ltd.
2.93
0.76
35.02%
AU:MAQ
Macquarie Telecom Group Limited
61.98
-8.33
-11.85%
AU:TUA
Tuas Ltd.
6.35
-0.14
-2.16%
AU:ABB
Aussie Broadband Ltd.
4.99
1.03
26.01%

TPG Telecom Limited Corporate Events

TPG Telecom Files 2025 Corporate Governance Statement with ASX
Feb 26, 2026

TPG Telecom has released its Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G for the full year ended 31 December 2025, providing the market with an overview of its governance practices and compliance with ASX corporate governance recommendations. The lodgement underscores the board’s ongoing focus on transparency and regulatory alignment, offering investors and other stakeholders updated insight into the company’s governance framework and reporting standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Publishes Full-Year 2025 Financial Results
Feb 26, 2026

TPG Telecom has released an investor presentation detailing its financial results for the full year ended 31 December 2025. The company lodged the materials with the ASX, signaling the formal disclosure of its 2025 performance to investors and the market, which will inform stakeholder assessment of its recent trading period and outlook.

The release underscores TPG Telecom’s ongoing engagement with investors and media by providing dedicated contacts for further information. By publishing its full-year 2025 results, TPG is offering transparency on its operations and financial position, a key factor for market confidence and for evaluating its competitive standing in the Australian telecom sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Declares A$0.09 Half‑Year Dividend for 2025 Period
Feb 26, 2026

TPG Telecom Limited has declared a fully paid ordinary share distribution of A$0.09 per share for the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The distribution will trade ex‑dividend on 5 March 2026, with a record date of 6 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 2 April 2026.

The announcement reinforces TPG Telecom’s ongoing capital return to shareholders, signalling continued profitability and cash generation from its telecom operations. The regular half‑year dividend timetable also provides income visibility for investors and may support the company’s positioning as a stable yield play in the Australian telecommunications sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Releases Full-Year 2025 Results and Annual Report
Feb 26, 2026

TPG Telecom Limited has released its financial results for the full year ended 31 December 2025, along with its 2025 Annual Report, providing investors and the market with updated performance disclosures. The company has lodged the statutory Appendix 4E and confirmed that senior executives will present the results via a webcast, with a replay to be made available on its website, underscoring its ongoing engagement with shareholders and analysts.

The announcement signals the formal completion of TPG Telecom’s 2025 reporting cycle and maintains transparency around its operating and financial position. By scheduling a detailed results presentation and Q&A session, TPG is offering stakeholders direct access to management’s commentary, which may shape market perceptions of its strategic direction and operational momentum in the competitive telecoms sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom sets date for FY2025 results webcast
Feb 9, 2026

TPG Telecom will release its full-year 2025 financial results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on Friday, 27 February 2026, and senior management will host a webcast presentation with a follow-up Q&A session at 10:30 a.m. Sydney time that day.

The company will publish presentation materials to the ASX before the event and will make a replay of the webcast available on its website afterward, offering investors and other stakeholders structured access to the results briefing and management’s commentary.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Hold with a A$3.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Grants Additional Equity Rights to CEO After Capital Return Adjustment
Dec 23, 2025

TPG Telecom has disclosed a change in the securities interests of chief executive and director Iñaki Berroeta, following an additional grant of deferred share rights, performance rights and performance retention rights under the company’s short- and long-term incentive plans. The new rights were issued at no cash consideration to maintain the economic value of Berroeta’s unvested on-foot share rights after a shareholder-approved capital return reduced their value, with the total number of rights held by him increasing materially; the move underscores TPG’s commitment to aligning executive remuneration with shareholder outcomes while preserving agreed incentive structures following balance-sheet and capital management actions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Issues Over 3.6 Million Unquoted Rights Under Employee Incentive Schemes
Dec 23, 2025

TPG Telecom Limited has notified the market of the issue of a total of 3,617,541 unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes. The issuance comprises 947,559 deferred share rights, 2,076,909 performance rights and 593,073 performance retention rights, all dated 22 December 2025, reinforcing the company’s use of equity-based remuneration to align staff incentives with long-term shareholder value and operational performance, while not expanding the pool of quoted securities on the ASX.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Announces Key Financial Dates for 2026
Dec 15, 2025

TPG Telecom Limited has announced its key dates for the year 2026, including the release of full-year and half-year financial results, dividend announcements, and the Annual General Meeting. These dates are crucial for stakeholders as they provide insights into the company’s financial health and strategic planning for the upcoming year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Raises $73 Million Through Retail Reinvestment Plan
Dec 9, 2025

TPG Telecom Limited has successfully completed the retail component of its non-underwritten reinvestment plan, raising approximately $73.4 million. This initiative, part of a broader reinvestment strategy, aims to increase minority ownership and offset the impact of a recent capital return on the company’s market capitalization. The funds raised will contribute to repaying bank borrowings, enhancing TPG Telecom’s financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Addresses Triple Zero Outages at Senate Hearing
Dec 8, 2025

TPG Telecom Limited has announced its participation in a Senate Environment and Communications References Committee hearing to address issues related to Triple Zero outages and resilience. The company is cooperating with the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) in investigating incidents where customers with outdated Samsung devices were unable to make emergency calls. TPG is urging customers to update their devices to ensure access to emergency services.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Telecom Clarifies Tax Implications of Capital Return and Special Dividend
Dec 3, 2025

TPG Telecom Limited announced that the Australian Taxation Office has issued a final Class Ruling regarding its recent capital return and special dividend. The ruling clarifies that the $1.52 per share capital return is not considered a dividend for tax purposes, while the $0.09 per share special dividend is classified as a dividend. This clarification provides shareholders with important tax information, potentially impacting their financial planning and investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TPG) stock is a Buy with a A$3.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG Telecom Limited stock, see the AU:TPG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 01, 2026