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Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. (AU:PAR)
ASX:PAR

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:PAR

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals

(Sydney:PAR)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.26
▼(-22.73% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/30/25
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance—minimal/volatile revenue, continued losses, and ongoing cash burn—partly offset by very low balance-sheet leverage and an improving FY2025 loss/burn profile. Technicals are neutral-to-soft with a negative MACD and price below the 50-day average, and valuation is limited by negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Low balance-sheet leverage
Extremely low debt relative to equity reduces refinancing risk and preserves financial optionality. Over a 2–6 month horizon this conservative leverage profile supports the company’s ability to manage development programs or raise capital on less stressed terms, improving strategic flexibility.
Sharply improved cash burn in FY2025
A substantial reduction in cash outflow in FY2025 signals a meaningful step-down in burn. Sustained lower operating cash burn lengthens runway, reduces immediate external funding needs and increases the likelihood management can reach key development milestones without urgent dilutive financing.
Narrower net loss trend
The meaningful narrowing of the net loss in FY2025 indicates improving cost control or operating discipline. If this trend persists it supports margin recovery potential and a clearer path to break-even, strengthening the company’s medium-term viability and capital efficiency.
Negative Factors
Minimal and volatile revenue
Very small, volatile revenue undermines sustainable scale and weakens cost absorption, making margin improvement difficult. Without durable top-line growth the company will remain dependent on external capital and cannot leverage fixed costs, constraining long-term commercial progress.
Persistent negative cash flow
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow forces reliance on external financing and increases dilution risk. Even with recent improvement, ongoing negative cash generation constrains reinvestment, heightens funding uncertainty, and pressures the company’s ability to pursue multiyear development plans.
Declining equity and negative ROE
Material decline in equity and strongly negative ROE indicate ongoing value erosion from sustained losses. This degrades shareholder value, complicates capital raises and increases the likelihood of dilutive financing or restructuring if profitability is not restored over the medium term.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionParadigm Biopharmaceuticals Limited, a drug repurposing company, engages in the research and development of therapeutic products for human use in Australia. It offers pentosan polysulfate sodium drugs in the injectable form for the treatment of osteoarthritis, mucopolysaccharidosis, ross river virus, chikungunya virus, and acute respiratory distress syndrome diseases. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyParadigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapeutic products. The company's revenue model is based on advancing its drug candidates through clinical trials and obtaining regulatory approvals. Once approved, Paradigm can generate revenue through licensing agreements, collaborations, and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for the distribution and marketing of its products. Additionally, the company may earn revenue from milestone payments and royalties from sales of its approved drugs. Key factors contributing to its earnings include successful clinical trial results, strategic partnerships, and favorable regulatory outcomes.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement quality is weak with minimal/volatile revenue and deeply negative profitability, despite FY2025’s meaningfully narrower net loss. Cash flow remains a major headwind with ongoing negative operating and free cash flow, though burn improved sharply versus FY2024. Balance sheet leverage is conservatively low (very low debt), but declining equity and strongly negative ROE indicate continued value erosion.
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Revenue remains very small and volatile (down ~37% in FY2025 after a modest increase in FY2024), while profitability is deeply negative across the period. FY2025 shows a much smaller net loss than FY2024 (loss narrowed meaningfully), but margins are still heavily negative and gross profit flipped back to negative, highlighting an ongoing lack of operating scale and weak cost absorption.
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
The balance sheet is conservatively levered, with extremely low debt relative to equity in FY2025, which reduces refinancing risk. However, equity has declined materially versus prior years, and returns on equity remain strongly negative, indicating continued value erosion as losses persist.
Cash Flow
24
Negative
Cash generation remains a key weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative each year, indicating ongoing cash burn. The FY2025 cash outflow improved sharply versus FY2024 (a substantial reduction in burn), but cash flow is still not self-funding and continues to rely on external capital over time.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue60.57K52.12K65.80K46.76K79.22K20.55K
Gross Profit-97.57K-19.89K56.81K-18.83K-64.53K-78.59K
EBITDA-40.72M-25.25M-64.54M-59.06M-46.82M-42.40M
Net Income-36.09M-18.77M-58.65M-51.91M-39.25M-34.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.15M24.57M27.39M67.07M50.69M84.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.66M16.82M17.87M56.38M39.72M71.08M
Total Debt1.01M5.48K239.33K341.67K616.67K751.84K
Total Liabilities17.16M3.39M3.58M13.39M8.38M6.52M
Stockholders Equity6.00M21.18M23.81M53.68M42.31M78.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-7.77M-15.99M-65.94M-45.19M-32.21M-34.96M
Operating Cash Flow-27.42M-15.99M-65.94M-45.19M-32.21M-34.93M
Investing Cash Flow-567.20K46.20K0.000.000.00668.37K
Financing Cash Flow18.17M14.99M28.18M62.53M70.12K1.00M

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.33
Price Trends
50DMA
0.32
Negative
100DMA
0.34
Negative
200DMA
0.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
31.38
Neutral
STOCH
16.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PAR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.29, above the 50-day MA of 0.32, and below the 200-day MA of 0.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:PAR.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
AU$156.16M-4.740.66%
52
Neutral
AU$98.99M-11.71-47.98%700.00%26.88%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
46
Neutral
AU$114.21M-2.91-81.03%-20.79%73.98%
42
Neutral
AU$77.16M-1.07-83.09%55.94%
42
Neutral
AU$64.27M-3.13-247.98%
41
Neutral
AU$87.00M-6.67-42.68%63.46%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:PAR
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals
0.26
-0.24
-47.47%
AU:IMU
Imugene
0.24
-0.98
-80.39%
AU:ATH
Alterity Therapeutics
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:NUZ
Pharmaust Limited
0.09
-0.04
-27.56%
AU:RCE
Recce Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
0.54
0.14
34.66%
AU:ALA
Arovella Therapeutics Limited
0.08
-0.03
-25.45%

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Widens Half-Year Loss on Intensified Phase 3 Investment
Feb 26, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals reported a net loss before tax of A$23.2 million for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, a sharp increase from the prior period’s A$5.9 million loss, as it intensified investment in late-stage clinical development. The company’s revenue from continuing activities fell 34.5% to A$284,055, basic and diluted loss per share widened to 5.62 cents, and net tangible asset backing dropped to 1.19 cents per share, underscoring the financial impact of sustained Phase 3 trial spending in the absence of commercial income.

No dividends were declared for the period, reflecting Paradigm’s focus on funding its clinical pipeline rather than returning capital to shareholders. The results highlight the company’s reliance on external funding while it progresses iPPS through crucial Phase 3 and regulatory milestones, a strategy that may increase near-term losses but is intended to position Paradigm for potential future commercialisation if trials are successful.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Updates Market on Director Paul Rennie’s Equity Holdings
Feb 23, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has disclosed changes in director Paul Rennie’s interests in the company’s securities, detailing movements across fully paid ordinary shares, listed options, performance rights and unlisted piggyback options. The update, filed under ASX listing rules, provides investors with transparency on the director’s direct and indirect holdings, including those held via self‑managed superannuation and family trust structures, and reflects ongoing adjustments to his equity exposure in the company.

The notice outlines the expiry dates and exercise prices associated with the various classes of securities, confirming both existing positions and newly acquired or granted instruments. This level of disclosure helps shareholders assess potential alignment between executive incentives and long‑term company performance, while signalling the scale and structure of a key director’s stake in Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.27 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Updates Market on Director Option Lapse
Feb 23, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has disclosed a change in director Matthew Fry’s interests, reporting the lapse of 354,958 listed options exercisable at $0.65 that expired on 11 February 2026. Following the lapse, Fry continues to hold 1,419,830 fully paid ordinary shares, with no consideration involved in the change and no trading during a closed period, indicating a routine update to the company’s director interest register without immediate operational impact.

The announcement reflects ongoing compliance with ASX listing rules and the Corporations Act, ensuring transparency around director holdings for investors and regulators. While the lapse slightly reduces Fry’s potential future equity exposure, it does not alter the company’s existing share count and primarily serves to keep the market accurately informed about board-level securities positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.27 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm’s PPS Shows Sustained Clinical and Structural Benefits in Canine Osteoarthritis Study
Feb 11, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals announced that a Paradigm-supported study of pentosan polysulfate sodium in dogs with naturally occurring osteoarthritis has been published in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS One. The collaborative trial with the University of Melbourne assessed a six-week course of subcutaneous PPS in companion dogs with established joint disease of the stifle and elbow, using pain scores, gait analysis, MRI and serum biomarkers over a 26-week follow-up.

The randomized, placebo-controlled exploratory study showed that PPS-treated dogs had sustained reductions in chronic pain through 26 weeks, while placebo-treated dogs experienced worsening pain. Objective gait analysis demonstrated progressive normalization of gait symmetry and improved weight bearing in the PPS group, indicating better joint function and reduced lameness.

MRI data revealed stabilization and modest increases in cartilage volume in PPS-treated dogs at weeks 8 and 26, compared with continued cartilage loss in the placebo group. Together with changes in bone and cartilage turnover biomarkers, these structural results support a potential disease-modifying effect of PPS and strengthen the relevance of the canine osteoarthritis model as a translational analogue for longer-term human outcomes.

The publication provides peer-reviewed validation that PPS can deliver durable clinical, functional and structural benefits in a model of naturally occurring, age-related osteoarthritis highly regarded by the pharmaceutical industry. This supports Paradigm’s positioning of PPS as a candidate disease-modifying therapy for osteoarthritis and may bolster confidence among regulators, clinicians and investors in the company’s late-stage development strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Strikes AVet Licensing Deal for Novel Oral Veterinary Osteoarthritis Drug
Feb 8, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has signed a binding term sheet with AVet Health to co-develop and license an oral combination of pentosan polysulfate sodium and a COX-2 inhibitor for osteoarthritis in companion animals in Australia and New Zealand. AVet will hold exclusive rights in those markets and a first right of refusal in most other territories, while Paradigm retains U.S. veterinary rights and potential development milestones of up to A$1 million.

Once a definitive licensing agreement is executed, Paradigm will control manufacturing and earn tiered royalties of up to 20 percent on net sales over a 15-year term following Australian registration. The partnership enables Paradigm to advance this first-in-class, dual-action veterinary OA therapy and generate early data in a capital-efficient way, supporting both veterinary commercialization and its broader osteoarthritis strategy alongside the pivotal Phase 3 Zilosul trial.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.28 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Director Converts Options Into Shares
Feb 3, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has disclosed a change in the interests of director Paul Rennie, who has converted 153,265 listed options into fully paid ordinary shares. The transaction, executed on 3 February 2026 for a consideration of $99,622.25, increases Rennie’s direct holding of ordinary shares while reducing his listed options by the same amount, signalling a shift from derivative exposure to outright equity ownership and marginally strengthening insider alignment with ordinary shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Feb 3, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has applied to the ASX for quotation of 176,880 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, with an issue date of 3 February 2026. The modest increase in quoted securities slightly expands the company’s capital base and free float, reflecting ongoing utilisation of equity-linked instruments but not indicating any major change to its operational strategy or market positioning at this time.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Jan 30, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has applied for quotation on the ASX of 10,037 new fully paid ordinary shares, following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The modest increase in quoted securities reflects routine capital management and slightly expands the company’s listed share base, with limited direct impact on its overall capital structure but maintaining flexibility for ongoing funding of operations and development activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Expands Global Phase 3 Knee Osteoarthritis Trial as Peer-Reviewed Data Bolster iPPS Case
Jan 30, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals reported continued operational progress in the December 2025 quarter, advancing its global Phase 3 PARA_OA_012 trial of injectable pentosan polysulfate sodium for knee osteoarthritis pain, with most sites in Australia and the United States now active and additional locations in Hong Kong and Moldova set to commence screening to bolster recruitment and geographic diversity. The company highlighted that Hong Kong participation aligns with a new regulatory pathway that could support future registration flexibility, while the publication of Phase 2 biomarker data in a leading peer-reviewed journal provides important external validation of iPPS’s biological effects and underpins regulatory and commercial engagement, alongside a solid cash position and further translational work in canine osteoarthritis designed to strengthen the scientific case for its lead asset.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Jan 27, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has applied for quotation on the ASX of 35,544 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be issued on 27 January 2026 following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The modest share issuance marginally increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects ongoing utilisation of equity-linked incentives or financing structures, with limited immediate dilution for existing shareholders but signalling continued capital management activity as the company pursues its biopharmaceutical development objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Seeks ASX Quotation for Nearly 5 Million New Shares
Jan 16, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,940,912 new fully paid ordinary shares, following the exercise or conversion of options or other convertible securities. The issuance and listing of these additional shares modestly increases the company’s free float and share capital, potentially enhancing liquidity for investors and signaling ongoing utilisation of equity-linked incentives or financing instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Flags February 2026 Expiry of 97 Million PAROA Options
Jan 8, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has advised holders of its PAROA quoted options that 97,358,215 options will expire at 5pm AEDT on 11 February 2026, with trading in these options to cease on 5 February 2026. Option holders have been notified that each option is exercisable at $0.65 into fully paid ordinary shares, with the potential issue of an equal number of shares and 48,679,107 piggyback options exercisable at $1.00 by February 2028, although the current share price of $0.35 sits below the exercise price; any options not exercised with cleared funds by the deadline will lapse unexercised, and there is no underwriting in place, leaving final take-up entirely dependent on investor demand.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Hold with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Paradigm Nears 25% Recruitment Milestone in Pivotal Knee Osteoarthritis Phase 3 Trial
Dec 22, 2025

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has confirmed it has enrolled or randomised enough patients to meet the 25% recruitment threshold in its pivotal global Phase 3 PARA_OA_012 trial of injectable pentosan polysulfate sodium for knee osteoarthritis, with some participants scheduled to begin dosing after the holiday period to safeguard protocol compliance over the six-week regimen. The company reports strong screening activity, boosted by a targeted Medimark-led outreach campaign in Australia that has generated thousands of pre-screened leads, and expects recruitment momentum to accelerate as more sites, including new centres in Moldova and Hong Kong, become fully active, keeping interim analysis timing for mid-2026 and full primary endpoint read-out in late 2026 in line with prior guidance, a key marker for the program’s progress and future commercial prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PAR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the AU:PAR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025