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Orion Minerals Limited (AU:ORN)
ASX:ORN
Australian Market

Orion Minerals Limited (ORN) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ORN

Orion Minerals Limited

(Sydney:ORN)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.03
▲(25.00% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses and deteriorating free cash flow despite strong revenue growth. Technicals are supportive due to an uptrend (price above major DMAs and positive MACD), but extremely overbought RSI raises near-term risk. Valuation remains constrained by unprofitability (negative P/E) and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth
A 43.12% revenue increase indicates real progress scaling project development and market traction for its base-metal output. Sustained top-line growth can fund expansion, attract partners and support future margin improvement if operating efficiencies follow revenue gains.
Conservative leverage
A low debt-to-equity ratio (0.39) gives Orion financial flexibility to fund development cycles without heavy interest burden. This conservative leverage profile reduces refinancing risk during commodity cycles and preserves capacity to raise capital for capex or project advancement.
Strategic commodity & project focus
Concentrating on copper and zinc, with flagship Prieska and Okiep projects, aligns Orion with structural demand drivers (electronics, renewables). A clear commodity and project pipeline supports long-term revenue potential and positions the company to benefit from secular metals demand.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
A negative net margin near -31% shows the company is not yet converting revenue into profits. Persistent losses reduce internal funding capacity, increase need for external capital, and indicate operational or scale inefficiencies that must be addressed to achieve sustainable returns.
Declining free cash flow
FCF contraction of -27.84% signals weakening cash generation despite revenue growth. For a development-stage miner, declining FCF increases reliance on equity or debt raises to fund capex, heightens dilution or leverage risk, and constrains timely project execution.
Negative return on equity
A negative ROE indicates the company is not generating profit from shareholder capital, reflecting poor capital efficiency. This undermines investor confidence, makes future fundraising more costly, and suggests current projects or operations are not yet delivering value to equity holders.

Orion Minerals Limited (ORN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Orion Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrion Minerals Limited explores for, evaluates, and develops mineral properties in Australia and South Africa. The company primarily explores for gold, zinc, copper, nickel, silver, and cobalt, as well as platinum group metals elements. Its flagship project is the Prieska copper-zinc project located in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. The company also holds interest in the Okiep copper project located in the north of Cape Town. In addition, it holds interest in the Namaqua-Disawell project; the Masiqhame project; and the Marydale project located in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. Further, the company holds interest in the Fraser Range project located in Western Australia; and the Walhalla project in Victoria, Australia. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrion Minerals generates revenue through the exploration, development, and eventual production of copper and zinc from its mining projects. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the extraction and sale of these minerals, which are in high demand due to their applications in various industries, including construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Key revenue streams include the sale of mined copper and zinc concentrates to various industrial customers and smelters. Additionally, Orion may benefit from strategic partnerships with other mining companies, joint ventures, and potential offtake agreements that secure buyers for its products in advance, thus providing financial stability and reducing market risk. The company also focuses on securing funding through equity raises and partnerships to support its development projects, which can further enhance its revenue-generating capabilities.

Orion Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Orion Minerals Limited shows strong revenue growth but faces significant profitability challenges, with negative profit margins and returns on equity. The low leverage is a positive aspect, but weak cash flow generation raises concerns about sustainability without external financing.
Income Statement
Orion Minerals Limited shows a significant revenue growth rate of 43.12% in the most recent year, which is a positive indicator. However, the company has consistently reported negative net profit margins, with the latest at -30.82%, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.39, suggesting a conservative leverage position. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating profit from its equity base. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the balance sheet shows a stable equity position relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
Orion Minerals Limited has a negative free cash flow growth rate of -27.84%, indicating declining cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting that the company is not effectively converting its earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some level of cash flow generation relative to net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue385.00K385.00K381.00K75.00K58.00K46.00K
Gross Profit-66.00K385.00K381.00K-97.00K-87.00K-49.00K
EBITDA-12.38M-12.38M-4.98M-16.52M-15.09M-1.71M
Net Income-11.86M-11.86M-5.39M-15.33M-14.29M-1.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets143.22M143.22M136.60M92.36M89.64M97.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments208.00K208.00K8.27M7.56M4.29M20.55M
Total Debt38.27M38.27M25.86M3.50M4.08M3.99M
Total Liabilities56.72M56.72M43.66M7.74M8.74M6.96M
Stockholders Equity98.83M98.83M102.18M92.87M85.81M94.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-23.91M-23.91M-28.96M-13.92M-17.61M-10.99M
Operating Cash Flow-7.88M-7.88M-12.07M-9.96M-12.93M-9.13M
Investing Cash Flow-16.00M-16.00M-18.25M-4.43M-5.04M-1.89M
Financing Cash Flow15.83M15.83M30.52M18.35M1.85M30.16M

Orion Minerals Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.02
Price Trends
50DMA
0.02
Positive
100DMA
0.02
Positive
200DMA
0.01
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
100.00
Negative
STOCH
47.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.02, below the 50-day MA of 0.02, and above the 200-day MA of 0.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 100.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ORN.

Orion Minerals Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
54
Neutral
AU$153.55M11.4322.56%64.66%
49
Neutral
AU$89.61M-46.67-13.23%-20.00%
45
Neutral
AU$211.79M-15.29-11.80%-88.89%
44
Neutral
AU$91.90M-7.68-8.61%42.69%
44
Neutral
AU$386.45M-52.70-24.97%15.91%
44
Neutral
AU$64.20M-5.09-12.99%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ORN
Orion Minerals Limited
0.03
0.01
85.71%
AU:AVL
Australian Vanadium
0.27
-0.08
-24.29%
AU:ETM
Greenland Minerals Limited
0.20
0.11
126.74%
AU:IMA
Image Resources NL
0.06
-0.03
-34.09%
AU:AQD
AusQuest Limited
0.06
0.03
133.33%
AU:QPM
QPM Energy
0.04
-0.03
-43.66%

Orion Minerals Limited Corporate Events

Orion Minerals Flags Holiday Delay in Finalising Up to US$250m Glencore Financing
Dec 30, 2025

Orion Minerals has reported that documentation for a previously announced US$200 million to US$250 million financing package and associated concentrate offtake agreement with Glencore for the Prieska copper-zinc project is progressing, but has been delayed by year-end holidays. The company said finalisation of the funding and offtake arrangements, which are key to advancing development of the Prieska project, will be updated to the market early in the new year, signalling continued momentum but a modest shift in timing for this critical capital package.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Director Denis Waddell Ups Indirect Stake in $1m Share Subscription
Dec 23, 2025

Orion Minerals has disclosed a change in director Denis Waddell’s indirect interests following his participation in the company’s recent capital raising. Through associated entities Tarney Holdings Pty Ltd and the DP Waddell Superannuation Fund, Waddell acquired a total of 66,666,666 fully paid ordinary shares for $1 million at an issue price of $0.015 per share, as approved by shareholders at the 27 November 2025 AGM, significantly increasing his indirect shareholding while leaving his existing options unchanged. The transaction reflects strong director support for the capital raising initiative, increasing Waddell’s exposure to the company and signalling confidence that may be closely watched by investors assessing insider alignment and future corporate direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Raises A$1 Million via Chairman Placement and Issues Shares to Adviser
Dec 23, 2025

Orion Minerals has completed a further share issue under its previously announced placement, issuing 66.7 million new shares at 1.5 cents each to raise A$1 million from Chairman Denis Waddell or his nominee, following shareholder approval at the November 2025 AGM. In addition, the company has issued 7.85 million shares to South African adviser Webb Street Capital in lieu of cash fees for professional services related to the placement, aligning advisory compensation with shareholder interests and modestly increasing Orion’s equity base as it progresses its capital-raising strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for 66.7 Million New Shares
Dec 22, 2025

Orion Minerals has applied to the ASX for quotation of 66,666,666 new fully paid ordinary shares, scheduled for issue on 23 December 2025. The sizeable share quotation, tied to previously announced transactions, will expand the company’s listed capital base and may provide additional funding capacity or facilitate strategic arrangements as Orion advances its resource projects and seeks to strengthen its market position in the mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for 7.8 Million New Shares
Dec 21, 2025

Orion Minerals Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of 7,845,294 additional ordinary fully paid shares under code ORN, with an issue date of 22 December 2025. The new securities, issued as part of previously announced transactions, will modestly expand the company’s listed share capital, potentially enhancing liquidity in its stock and supporting ongoing corporate or project funding initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Announces Proposed Issue of Securities
Dec 12, 2025

Orion Minerals Limited has announced a proposed issue of 7,845,294 ordinary fully paid securities, scheduled for December 23, 2025. This move is part of a placement or other type of issue, which could impact the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance its financial position, thereby influencing its strategic initiatives and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Secures Shareholder Support at AGM
Nov 27, 2025

Orion Minerals Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting were passed by a poll. This includes the re-election of board members and the ratification of prior share issues, which reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued strategic initiatives. The successful passing of these resolutions is likely to positively impact Orion’s operational capabilities and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orion Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:ORN Stock Forecast page.

Orion Minerals Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting Details
Oct 24, 2025

Orion Minerals Limited has announced the distribution of documents related to its upcoming Annual General Meeting scheduled for November 27, 2025. Shareholders are provided with a shareholder letter, notice of the meeting, proxy form, and the 2025 annual report, which are accessible on the company’s website. The meeting will be held in person in Perth, Western Australia, with an option for shareholders to join via an online platform, although real-time voting is not available online. This announcement facilitates shareholder engagement and ensures transparency in the company’s governance processes.

Orion Minerals Ltd Reports Quarterly Cash Flow with Positive Financing Influx
Oct 23, 2025

Orion Minerals Ltd reported its quarterly cash flow, highlighting a net cash outflow from operating activities amounting to $3.088 million, primarily due to exploration, evaluation, and administrative costs. However, the company saw a positive cash flow from financing activities, raising $4.736 million, which contributed to an overall increase in cash and cash equivalents for the period.

Orion Minerals Secures Financing and Advances Project Development
Oct 23, 2025

Orion Minerals Limited announced significant progress in its Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM) project, including a non-binding term sheet with Glencore for a financing package of up to US$250 million and concentrate offtake. The company also appointed Johan van Dyk as Project Director to lead the development team. Orion is focused on operational readiness and value engineering, with plans to finalize project financing and commence production soon. The company also raised A$8.6 million through a share placement, reflecting increased market confidence.

Orion Minerals Completes First Stage of Share Placement, Raising A$4.35 Million
Oct 16, 2025

Orion Minerals Limited has successfully raised A$4.35 million through the issuance of 290,239,214 new shares at 1.5 cents each, as part of a larger placement plan to issue 574 million shares. This capital raise is aimed at sophisticated and professional investors, with a subsequent stage pending shareholder approval. The move is within the company’s 15% capacity for equity issuance without shareholder approval, aligning with ASX regulations, and is expected to bolster Orion’s financial position, potentially enhancing its operational capabilities and market standing.

Orion Minerals Secures A$1.26 Million in New Share Placement
Oct 10, 2025

Orion Minerals Limited has announced the issuance of 83,733,331 new shares at 1.5 cents each, raising A$1.26 million as part of a larger placement to sophisticated and professional investors. The company has secured commitments for the remaining A$4.4 million of the placement, which will be issued shortly, enhancing its financial capacity without requiring shareholder approval under ASX rules.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 10, 2026