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Australian Vanadium (AU:AVL)
ASX:AVL

Australian Vanadium (AVL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AVL

Australian Vanadium

(Sydney:AVL)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.22
▼(-10.80% Downside)
The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (large ongoing losses and meaningful cash burn), with only the low-leverage balance sheet providing some support. Technical indicators also lean bearish given price below key moving averages and weak momentum, while valuation is difficult to justify on earnings due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / sizable equity
Very low debt and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility for project funding and working capital through development. This reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, allowing AVL time to reach production or secure offtakes without immediate distressed financing.
Exposure to vanadium & VRFB market
AVL's product focus spans traditional steel alloying and the growing VRFB storage market. Structurally, demand from grid-scale energy storage and steel applications provides multi-market end-demand optionality, supporting long-term offtake opportunities if the project reaches scale.
Integrated upstream-to-downstream plans
Operating across exploration, processing and downstream battery supply initiatives can capture more value per tonne and reduce commodity price exposure. If AVL successfully executes, vertical integration supports margin sustainability and more defensible customer relationships long term.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Sustained operating and free cash outflows materially increase reliance on external funding to advance development. Repeated cash burn raises dilution and execution risk over the coming months unless project capitalization, offtake financing or commercial cash flows are secured.
Pre‑commercial operating losses
Revenue remains tiny versus costs and the company reports large recurring losses, indicating AVL is still pre‑profit and dependent on development milestones. Without scale production or improved processing margins, losses are likely to persist and delay path to sustainable earnings.
Negative returns on invested capital
Multi-year negative ROE shows invested capital has not generated positive returns, reflecting limited operating efficiency and value creation to date. This structural performance shortfall must be resolved through commercial production and margin recovery to justify further investment.

Australian Vanadium (AVL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Australian Vanadium Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAustralian Vanadium Limited engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Exploration and Energy Storage. It explores for vanadium/titanium, uranium, and other economic resources. The company holds 100% interest in the Australian Vanadium project comprising 15 tenements covering an area of approximately 200 square kilometers located in the Murchison region to the south of Meekatharra of Western Australia. It also develops and sells vanadium redox flow battery systems. The company was formerly known as Yellow Rock Resources Limited and changed its name to Australian Vanadium Limited in December 2015. Australian Vanadium Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAustralian Vanadium Limited makes money through the extraction and sale of vanadium from its mining operations. The primary revenue stream comes from selling vanadium to industries that require it for steel production and energy storage solutions, such as renewable energy companies utilizing vanadium redox flow batteries. Additionally, AVL may engage in offtake agreements and partnerships with other companies to secure consistent demand and pricing for its vanadium products. The company also invests in research and development to enhance its mining processes and expand its market reach, ensuring sustainable growth and profitability.

Australian Vanadium Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall fundamentals are weak due to ongoing large losses and sustained cash burn. Revenue improved off a near-zero base, but gross profit remains negative and FY2025 net loss was ~11.9m, while operating and free cash flow stayed deeply negative (FY2025 OCF ~-13.5m; FCF ~-30.5m). The balance sheet is a partial offset with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.02) and sizable equity (~129.9m), but returns remain negative.
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Operating performance remains very weak. While revenue in FY2025 rose to 624k from essentially zero in FY2024, profitability did not improve: gross profit is still negative and losses are large (FY2025 net loss ~11.9m, with deeply negative operating margins). The multi-year pattern shows recurring losses and limited, volatile revenue generation, indicating the business is still in a pre-profit/early commercialization phase.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Balance sheet positioning is relatively strong from a leverage standpoint. Debt is low versus equity (debt-to-equity ~0.02 in FY2025) and equity remains sizable (~129.9m), providing financial flexibility. The key weakness is persistent negative returns on equity (around -9% to -12% in recent years), reflecting that capital is not yet producing profits despite the conservative leverage profile.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash generation is consistently negative, with FY2025 operating cash flow around -13.5m and free cash flow around -30.5m, implying ongoing cash burn to fund operations and investment. While free cash flow volatility includes periods of improvement, the overall trajectory remains meaningfully negative, increasing reliance on external funding if this persists.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue624.00K624.00K0.0030.50K-34.33K34.33K
Gross Profit-2.86M-48.00K-630.00K-3.02M-2.13M-960.50K
EBITDA-11.37M-11.78M-14.26M-6.83M-4.92M-2.99M
Net Income-11.91M-11.91M-15.20M-7.24M-5.04M-3.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets143.50M143.50M170.33M77.43M64.33M33.55M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.49M11.49M36.42M26.87M26.44M3.50M
Total Debt2.53M2.53M2.05M1.87M32.31K77.18K
Total Liabilities13.62M13.62M29.39M16.94M3.80M2.16M
Stockholders Equity129.88M129.88M140.95M60.49M60.53M31.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-21.92M-30.51M-14.96M-17.34M-12.43M-7.87M
Operating Cash Flow-13.12M-13.54M-8.66M-6.58M-4.42M-2.98M
Investing Cash Flow-12.15M-10.97M3.22M-350.49K-4.98M-3.59M
Financing Cash Flow-413.00K-413.00K14.99M7.36M32.35M4.52M

Australian Vanadium Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.25
Price Trends
50DMA
0.24
Positive
100DMA
0.26
Negative
200DMA
0.27
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
49.89
Neutral
STOCH
33.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.26, above the 50-day MA of 0.24, and below the 200-day MA of 0.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:AVL.

Australian Vanadium Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
50
Neutral
AU$363.15M-34.95-27.95%-43.08%
49
Neutral
AU$71.14M-22.11-100.11%-26.67%
48
Neutral
AU$82.61M-4.33-103.22%-278.88%
45
Neutral
AU$83.15M-14.4754.26%
45
Neutral
AU$14.78M-5.48-14.33%
44
Neutral
AU$86.70M-7.25-8.61%42.69%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AVL
Australian Vanadium
0.25
-0.08
-23.08%
AU:MTH
Mithril Resources Ltd
0.45
0.07
18.42%
AU:AKO
Akora Resources Ltd.
0.09
-0.05
-38.41%
AU:ARD
Argent Minerals Limited
0.04
0.02
100.00%
AU:TGN
Tungsten Mining NL
0.33
0.21
170.83%
AU:CZR
CZR Resources Ltd
0.35
0.14
72.50%

Australian Vanadium Corporate Events

Australian Vanadium Gains Policy Clarity as WA Sets Flat 2.5% Vanadium Royalty
Feb 4, 2026

Australian Vanadium Limited has welcomed the Western Australian Government’s revised royalty framework for vanadium, which introduces a flat 2.5% royalty rate on vanadium products from 4 February 2026 while keeping vanadium electrolyte production royalty-free. The new settings are expected to reduce fiscal uncertainty for the company’s Australian Vanadium Project and support the economics of downstream processing and manufacturing, with the impact to be incorporated into its Optimisation Feasibility Study. The policy shift forms part of broader state initiatives to promote critical minerals and long-duration energy storage, including support for vanadium flow battery deployment, and aligns with Australian Vanadium’s strategy to build a vertically integrated local vanadium battery supply chain, as evidenced by its recent expression of interest for a proposed utility-scale vanadium battery energy storage system in Kalgoorlie.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Bids for Kalgoorlie Long-Duration Battery Project
Feb 2, 2026

Australian Vanadium and its subsidiary VSUN Energy have lodged an Expression of Interest with the Western Australian Government for the proposed Kalgoorlie Vanadium Battery Energy Storage System, a 50 MW, 10-hour vanadium flow battery project backed by $150 million in state funding. The submission leverages AVL’s vertically integrated capabilities, including its advanced Australian Vanadium Project in the Mid West, operation of WA’s only vanadium electrolyte manufacturing facility, and its modular utility-scale Project Lumina battery architecture, positioning the company as a strong contender to support the state’s goals of enhancing energy security in the Goldfields, building a domestic vanadium supply chain and creating skilled jobs in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Advances Integrated ‘Pit‑to‑Battery’ Strategy and Bolsters Cash Ahead of Key WA Storage Tender
Jan 27, 2026

Australian Vanadium advanced its Optimised Feasibility Study for the Australian Vanadium Project during the December 2025 quarter, with engineering, cost estimation, test work and financial modelling largely complete and an updated mineral resource and final study targeted for early 2026. Regulatory momentum also improved, with key amendments approved under Western Australia’s Environmental Protection Act and submission of a revised Environmental Review Document, supporting the pathway to full environmental approvals. In its midstream operations, the company progressed plans to expand its Perth vanadium electrolyte manufacturing facility, aligning design and economics with expected demand and potential participation in large‑scale projects such as the Western Australian Government’s proposed Kalgoorlie Vanadium Battery Energy Storage System, while reinforcing its role in global vanadium flow battery standards and industry forums. Downstream, VSUN Energy continued development of Project Lumina, a turnkey utility‑scale vanadium flow battery system designed for Australian market conditions, positioning AVL to respond to the state government’s 50 MW/500 MWh Kalgoorlie VBESS expression of interest using its integrated ‘pit‑to‑battery’ platform and local electrolyte production. Corporate strength was underpinned by a further $4.9 million Modern Manufacturing Initiative grant milestone and $2.55 million in R&D tax incentive receipts, completion of a 25:1 share consolidation to improve capital structure, and a cash balance of $18.1 million at quarter end, enhancing AVL’s capacity to advance feasibility work and downstream growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Hold with a A$0.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

EPA Approval Advances Australian Vanadium’s Integrated Project
Dec 18, 2025

Australian Vanadium Limited (AVL) has secured approvals from the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) for amendments to its Environmental Review Document and Ministerial Statement, reflecting the integration of AVL’s vanadium project with the neighboring Gabanintha Vanadium Project. The merger has consolidated resources from both projects, optimizing operations and creating one of the largest vanadium development projects globally. These approvals mark a significant milestone that aligns environmental approvals with the project’s integrated framework, simplifying pathways toward investment readiness. The project aims to bolster AVL’s positioning within the global vanadium market, providing opportunities for stakeholders while advancing progress toward final approvals by early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$1.39 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Completes Share Consolidation
Nov 26, 2025

Australian Vanadium Limited has completed a share consolidation on a 25-for-1 basis, as approved in their recent Annual General Meeting. This move is expected to streamline the company’s capital structure, potentially enhancing its market appeal and operational efficiency. The consolidation will see normal settlement trading of securities on a consolidated basis begin on 3 December 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Eyes Kalgoorlie Battery Project
Nov 25, 2025

Australian Vanadium Limited has announced its intention to submit an Expression of Interest for the Kalgoorlie Vanadium Battery Energy Storage System project, backed by a $150 million funding commitment from the Western Australian Government. This project aims to enhance energy security and stimulate local economic growth by establishing a domestic vanadium supply chain. AVL’s vertically integrated approach and collaboration with industry partners are expected to strengthen its proposal, aligning with government objectives for local content and long-duration energy storage solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Secures $2.55 Million R&D Tax Refund
Nov 24, 2025

Australian Vanadium Limited has received a $2.55 million refund under the Australian Federal Government’s R&D Tax Incentive Scheme for the 2024/25 tax year, recognizing its investment in process innovation and downstream value creation. This financial boost will enhance AVL’s cash position, supporting the Optimised Feasibility Study for the Australian Vanadium Project and advancing various approval and downstream initiatives, thereby strengthening its operational and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Secures Shareholder Support at AGM
Nov 20, 2025

Australian Vanadium Limited announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions, including the adoption of the remuneration report, re-election of a director, and approval of share-related agreements, were passed. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company to continue its strategic initiatives, potentially enhancing its market presence and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Eyes Growth in Energy Storage Amid Transition
Nov 20, 2025

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, Australian Vanadium Limited highlighted the significant opportunities arising from the global energy transition, particularly in long-duration energy storage. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for vanadium flow batteries, which are essential for maintaining grid reliability as renewable energy sources increase. AVL’s strategic approach includes developing a sovereign VFB supply chain in Australia, aligning with national policies and initiatives. The Western Australian Government’s commitment to a vanadium battery energy storage system in Kalgoorlie presents a major opportunity for AVL to showcase its integrated model, potentially boosting regional job creation and enhancing energy reliability. AVL is actively engaging with potential funding partners to support its participation in this initiative.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vanadium Issues Over 6.5 Million New Securities
Nov 13, 2025

Australian Vanadium Limited has announced the issuance of 6,531,336 fully paid ordinary securities, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and support its ongoing projects, potentially strengthening its market position and providing value to its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVL) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vanadium stock, see the AU:AVL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 03, 2026