Octava Minerals Ltd. (OCT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.11M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 848.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -164.12%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 111,009,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,174,527
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 848,080
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1364.60
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.05 ▲(32.50% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (near-zero and declining revenue, persistent losses, and ongoing cash burn), only partly offset by a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive momentum, but valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no indicated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Zero debt materially lowers solvency and refinancing risk, giving management durable financial flexibility. For a capital-intensive exploration firm this reduces near-term liquidity strain, enables longer runway for projects, and preserves strategic optionality versus highly leveraged peers.

Positive equity buffer

A positive and material equity base supports ongoing funding for exploration and operations without reliance on immediate external debt. This buffer underpins liquidity and capital allocation choices, helping the company sustain multi‑period exploration cycles while seeking value-creating discoveries.

No apparent COGS pressure

Gross profit moving with revenue suggests operating cost structure is not being eroded by rising direct costs. For an exploration business this preserves potential upside from any future revenue recovery, limiting structural margin deterioration if commercial activity or commodity prices improve.

Negative Factors

Collapsing revenue base

A dramatic, persistent revenue collapse indicates the company lacks a stable commercial foundation, raising execution and project commercialisation risk. Over a multi‑month horizon this weakens prospects for self‑funding, makes scaling difficult, and increases reliance on external capital infusions.

Persistent cash burn

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow forces dependence on financing to fund operations. This structural cash burn erodes flexibility, risks dilution or asset sales, and constrains long‑term project investment unless operating performance reverses or significant capital is raised.

Eroding equity base

Declining shareholders' equity from cumulative losses reduces the firm's capital buffer and increases vulnerability to adverse shocks. Over months this shrinking base limits capacity to absorb further losses, restricts funding choices, and may force dilutive financing or asset disposals to sustain operations.

Octava Minerals Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Octava Minerals Limited engages in the exploration of various mineral properties in the Western Australia. The company focuses on exploring gold, lithium, nickel, and platinum group elements. It's project portfolio include the East Pilbara Talga project that comprises eight granted exploration licenses covering an area of 211 square kilometers located in the northeast of marble bar in the Pilbara region of Western Australia; and the East Kimberly Project comprises two tenements, the Panton North project and the Copernicus North project located in the Halls Creek Orogen. In addition, the company holds interest the Yallalong project consisting of one granted exploration licence covering an area of approximately 63.4 square kilometers located in northeast of Geraldton. Octava Minerals Limited was formerly known as 8 AU limited and changed its name to Octava Minerals Limited in February 2022. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Octava Minerals Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the exploration and development of mineral resources. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of extracted minerals such as lithium, gold, and base metals to industrial clients and commodity markets. Additionally, Octava Minerals may engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other mining companies to co-develop projects, which can lead to shared revenues or royalties from successful mining operations. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as mineral prices, exploration success, and operational efficiency.

Octava Minerals Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals are very weak: revenue is minimal and declining sharply (to ~1.5k in 2025), losses are persistent, and operating/free cash flow are consistently deeply negative. The main offset is a conservatively levered balance sheet with zero debt and positive equity, though equity is trending down as losses accumulate.

Income Statement

Revenue is minimal and highly volatile, falling from 400k (2023) to 200k (2024) and then to just ~1.5k (2025), indicating no stable commercial base. Profitability is consistently weak with large operating losses and net losses each year, and margins deteriorated sharply in 2025 as fixed costs overwhelmed a near-zero revenue base. A positive is that gross profit tracks revenue (no apparent cost-of-sales pressure), but overall earnings quality remains very weak given persistent and widening losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered with zero debt in 2023–2025 (and only modest debt in 2021), which materially reduces financial risk. Equity is positive and sizable in 2023–2025, supporting liquidity and funding capacity; however, equity has been trending down from 5.7m (2023) to 3.8m (2025) as losses accumulate. Returns on equity are negative in recent years, underscoring that capital is not yet generating profits despite the low-leverage structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative, with operating cash flow remaining a large outflow each year (roughly -0.8m to -1.0m), and free cash flow also deeply negative (about -1.9m to -2.3m in 2023–2025). Free cash flow improved modestly in 2024–2025 versus 2023, but the business is still funding operations through cash burn rather than internally generated cash. The level and persistence of cash outflows remain the key financial risk despite some year-to-year improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	1.46K	200.00K	400.00K	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	1.46K	200.00K	400.00K	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-945.58K	-944.12K	-797.64K	-752.73K	-790.29K	-522.21K
Net Income	-2.44M	-2.44M	-797.64K	-752.73K	-1.52M	-522.21K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.86M	3.86M	5.14M	5.84M	336.95K	281.27K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.12M	1.12M	1.48M	3.36M	113.78K	24.38K
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00K
Total Liabilities	74.37K	74.37K	64.14K	106.92K	570.90K	238.08K
Stockholders Equity	3.78M	3.78M	5.07M	5.73M	-233.95K	43.19K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.87M	-1.87M	-1.87M	-2.34M	-961.88K	-621.02K
Operating Cash Flow	-871.83K	-871.83K	-779.60K	-855.46K	-961.88K	-394.20K
Investing Cash Flow	-592.88K	-592.88K	-1.09M	-1.48M	0.00	-246.82K
Financing Cash Flow	1.10M	1.10M	0.00	5.58M	1.05M	665.40K

Octava Minerals Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:OCT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.07, below the 50-day MA of 0.05, and below the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:OCT.

Octava Minerals Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
OCT	50 Neutral	AU$6.11M	-1.18	-55.11%	―	―	-164.12%
BPM	48 Neutral	AU$23.46M	-4.71	-61.72%	―	―	8.81%
DUN	48 Neutral	AU$6.29M	-3.58	-25.70%	―	-100.00%	80.33%
M3M	46 Neutral	AU$6.47M	-1.12	-135.06%	―	―	30.99%
GCR	45 Neutral	AU$2.19M	-9.09	-28.11%	―	―	―
AVW	44 Neutral	AU$5.78M	-2.68	-21.67%	―	―	29.31%

Octava Minerals Ltd. Corporate Events

Octava Steps Up Critical Minerals Push with Drilling at Federation and Byro

Octava Minerals reported a busy December quarter, highlighted by the first diamond drilling in nearly 50 years at the high-grade, polymetallic Sweeney’s prospect within its Federation project in Tasmania, where re-sampling of outcropping mineralisation returned very high-grade indium alongside strong copper, zinc, silver and tin values. Electromagnetic survey work at Sweeney’s confirmed strong conductance and continuity of sulphide mineralisation, supporting EM as an effective targeting tool in the granite host rocks and underpinning plans for a broader survey, while the company also completed a $1.5 million placement to sophisticated investors and, shortly after quarter-end, launched an air-core drilling program at its Byro Critical Minerals Project to size up the resource potential and secure more material for larger-scale bioleaching testwork, signalling an acceleration of its critical minerals exploration strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:OCT) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Octava Minerals Ltd. stock, see the AU:OCT Stock Forecast page.

Octava Starts Maiden Drilling at Byro After Strong Bioleaching Results

Octava Minerals has begun its maiden air core drilling campaign at the Byro Critical Minerals Project in Western Australia’s Gascoyne region, launching an 1,100-metre program over a 10km by 8km area to test Permian black shales that host rare earth elements, lithium and vanadium. The campaign follows strong bioleaching test results from CSIRO and BiotaTec that delivered high recoveries of these metals using microbes, bolstering the case for a large, environmentally sustainable heap leach operation at Byro and providing fresh material to refine the process and define an exploration target, potentially enhancing Octava’s position in the critical minerals sector if substantial in-situ tonnages are confirmed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:OCT) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Octava Minerals Ltd. stock, see the AU:OCT Stock Forecast page.

Octava Extends Byro Deal Terms and Shifts Vendor Consideration to Performance Rights

Octava Minerals has agreed with the vendors of the Byro rare earths and lithium project to amend the terms of its acquisition agreement, a move that follows successful bioleaching testwork on Byro material carried out in 2025 by independent consultants. The changes extend the deadline for satisfying conditions precedent to 31 March 2026 and replace an entitlement to 2 million Octava shares with performance rights that convert to shares upon completion of an independently prepared scoping or higher-level study, with those rights expiring three years after completion; the company plans to seek the necessary board, shareholder and regulatory approvals at a general meeting expected in mid-March 2026, underscoring its continued commitment to advancing the Byro project within its critical minerals portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:OCT) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Octava Minerals Ltd. stock, see the AU:OCT Stock Forecast page.

Octava Minerals Confirms High-Grade Mineralisation at Federation Project in Tasmania

Octava Minerals has resumed diamond drilling at the Sweeney’s prospect within its Federation copper-zinc-silver project in western Tasmania, completing three of a planned 2,000 metres of drilling and identifying visible semi-massive sulphide mineralisation in the third hole across two lodes. In parallel, high-grade rock chip samples from the nearby Anomaly 1 prospect, 750 metres northeast of Sweeney’s, have confirmed significant zinc, copper, silver, tin and indium mineralisation supported by historic drill intersections, underscoring the project’s potential to host a substantial polymetallic system and enhancing Octava’s exploration upside in a well-serviced mining region.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:OCT) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Octava Minerals Ltd. stock, see the AU:OCT Stock Forecast page.

Octava Minerals Revives Drilling at Sweeney’s Prospect After 50 Years

Octava Minerals Ltd has commenced its first drilling program in nearly 50 years at the Sweeney’s prospect within the Federation project in Western Tasmania. This initiative targets high-grade polymetallic sulphide mineralization, with historical data indicating significant copper, zinc, silver, and tin deposits. The current 2000-meter diamond drill program aims to assess the tonnage and grade potential of these resources, potentially enhancing Octava’s position in the critical minerals industry. The project benefits from its strategic location near existing mining infrastructure and power stations, which may facilitate future development and extraction processes.

Octava Minerals Announces Changes in Directors’ Interests

Octava Minerals Ltd announced changes in the interests of its directors, specifically regarding the issuance of performance rights following shareholder approval. The company has reaffirmed its commitment to compliance with ASX listing rules and has implemented a Securities Trading Policy to ensure transparency and adherence to disclosure requirements.

Octava Minerals Ltd Successfully Passes All AGM Resolutions

At its Annual General Meeting, Octava Minerals Ltd announced that all resolutions were passed, including the adoption of the Remuneration Report, re-election of Director Feiyu Qi, approval of a 10% Placement Facility, re-adoption of the Employee Incentive Plan, and renewal of Proportional Takeover Provisions. This outcome supports the company’s strategic initiatives and governance, potentially strengthening its market position and stakeholder confidence.

Octava Minerals Updates on Critical Minerals Projects

Octava Minerals Limited has released an update regarding its critical minerals projects, highlighting its ongoing efforts in Western Australia and Tasmania. The announcement serves as an investor update and AGM presentation, aiming to provide stakeholders with a general understanding of the company’s proposals and objectives. While the document includes forward-looking statements, it emphasizes the importance of independent assessment and investigation by recipients, as no guarantees are made regarding future projections or plans.

Octava Minerals Confirms High-Grade Indium, Prepares for Drilling at Federation Project

Octava Minerals Ltd has confirmed high-grade indium results from re-assayed rock chips at the Sweeney’s prospect within the Federation project in Tasmania. The company is preparing to commence drilling, supported by a successful EM survey indicating strong conductance and connectivity of sulphide minerals. This development marks a significant step in Octava’s exploration efforts, with the company well-capitalized to advance drilling operations, potentially enhancing its position in the critical minerals sector.

Octava Minerals Advances with High-Grade Indium Discovery and Drilling Approval

Octava Minerals Ltd. has announced the discovery of high-grade indium, along with significant copper, zinc, silver, and tin, from rock chip sampling at the Sweeney’s Prospect within the Federation Project in Tasmania. The company has received regulatory approval to commence a 2000m diamond drilling program, expected to start mid-November, to explore the potential for significant polymetallic mineralization. This development positions Octava to potentially enhance its resource base and strengthen its market position in the critical minerals sector.