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Liontown Resources Limited (AU:LTR)
ASX:LTR

Liontown Resources Limited (LTR) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:LTR

Liontown Resources Limited

(Sydney:LTR)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
â–Ľ(-8.26% Downside)
The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance: large losses, rising leverage, and substantial free-cash-flow burn despite a major revenue ramp. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but overbought signals reduce confidence. Valuation is constrained by negative earnings and the absence of a dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Transition to Underground Mining
The shift to underground mining at Kathleen Valley enhances operational efficiency and output, positioning Liontown for sustained growth in the lithium sector.
Major Offtake Agreement
This agreement diversifies Liontown's customer base and ensures stable revenue streams, supporting long-term strategic growth in the battery materials market.
Strategic Rebranding
Rebranding reflects a strategic focus on the battery minerals sector, potentially enhancing market positioning and stakeholder engagement.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Increased leverage could strain financial flexibility, posing risks to cash flow and limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Weak Profitability
Weak profitability, despite revenue growth, indicates challenges in cost management and margin improvement, impacting long-term financial health.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow suggests ongoing reliance on external funding, which may hinder sustainable growth and operational resilience.

Liontown Resources Limited (LTR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Liontown Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLiontown Resources Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for lithium, gold, vanadium, copper, and nickel deposits, as well as platinum group elements. Its flagship property is the Kathleen Valley lithium project located in Perth, Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyLiontown Resources Limited generates revenue primarily through the exploration and development of its lithium projects, with a focus on advancing its assets to production-ready status. The company makes money by selling lithium concentrate extracted from its mining operations to global customers, including manufacturers of electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems. Key revenue streams include strategic partnerships and off-take agreements with major players in the battery and automotive industries, which secure long-term sales contracts and financing to support project development. Additionally, Liontown may engage in joint ventures or sell a portion of its assets to raise capital and accelerate project timelines.

Liontown Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue ramped sharply in FY2025, indicating progress toward commercialization, but profitability is still very weak (thin gross margin, large operating and net losses). Leverage has risen materially (higher debt-to-equity) and free cash flow is deeply negative, implying ongoing funding risk despite a larger equity base.
Income Statement
28
Negative
Revenue stepped up sharply in FY2025 (A$297.6m vs. minimal revenue historically), suggesting commercialization progress. However, profitability remains weak: gross margin is thin (~4.5%) and operating losses are heavy (EBIT margin ~-53%), driving a large net loss (net margin ~-65%). Overall, the top-line inflection is a positive, but earnings quality and cost structure are still major headwinds.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet has scaled significantly, but leverage has risen quickly: debt-to-equity increased to ~1.43 in FY2025 (from ~0.60 in FY2024 and much lower earlier). Equity remains sizable (A$580.6m), yet returns are negative (ROE ~-33% in FY2025), indicating the capital base is not currently generating profits. Strength is the larger asset and equity base; weakness is the rapidly higher leverage paired with ongoing losses.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash generation is a key concern. FY2025 operating cash flow is only slightly positive (~A$0.7m) while free cash flow is deeply negative (~-A$330.0m) and has deteriorated versus the prior year. Cash flow support for accounting losses is limited, with operating cash flow covering only a very small fraction of net income in FY2025, implying continued reliance on funding to sustain operations and investment.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue297.56M297.56M0.00147.00K0.00600.00K
Gross Profit-149.59M13.51M-1.38M-322.00K-226.00K600.00K
EBITDA-39.58M1.33M-59.31M-21.85M41.59M-10.97M
Net Income-193.28M-193.28M-64.92M-22.21M40.85M-10.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.56B1.56B1.38B655.16M487.06M15.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments181.93M181.93M122.95M305.44M453.08M12.55M
Total Debt831.10M831.10M460.91M121.27M231.00K75.55K
Total Liabilities982.97M982.97M614.85M205.42M20.21M1.90M
Stockholders Equity580.57M580.57M770.07M449.74M466.85M13.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-329.98M-329.98M-712.75M-249.01M-60.28M-8.32M
Operating Cash Flow713.00K713.00K-47.02M-16.35M-47.01M-8.23M
Investing Cash Flow-330.69M-330.69M-680.79M-244.07M-13.95M1.41M
Financing Cash Flow374.44M362.60M545.31M112.78M501.49M14.11M

Liontown Resources Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.18
Price Trends
50DMA
1.50
Positive
100DMA
1.24
Positive
200DMA
0.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Negative
RSI
76.44
Negative
STOCH
95.49
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.73, above the 50-day MA of 1.50, and above the 200-day MA of 0.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.44 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LTR.

Liontown Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
51
Neutral
AU$427.76M3.17145.87%―45.56%―
47
Neutral
AU$384.09M-25.39-179.67%―-100.00%-6.00%
46
Neutral
AU$6.41B-27.39-28.04%――-184.29%
46
Neutral
AU$378.46M-8.84-90.12%――-98.20%
44
Neutral
AU$494.91M-16.90-45.39%――-91.89%
43
Neutral
AU$2.03B-12.40-17.30%―16.06%-50.94%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:LTR
Liontown Resources Limited
2.18
1.60
275.86%
AU:SVM
Sovereign Metals Limited
0.59
-0.15
-19.86%
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
0.07
0.01
22.81%
AU:MAU
Magnetic Resources NL
1.30
0.12
10.17%
AU:VUL
Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd.
4.58
-0.42
-8.40%
AU:CAY
Canyon Resources Limited
0.24
0.06
33.33%

Liontown Resources Limited Corporate Events

Liontown Completes Open Pit at Kathleen Valley, Shifts to Fully Underground Lithium Mining
Dec 22, 2025

Liontown Limited has completed open pit mining at its Kathleen Valley Lithium Operation on schedule, marking a transition to a fully underground mining operation and establishing Australia’s first large-scale underground lithium mine. The open pit phase provided critical waste rock for key infrastructure such as the ROM pad and tailings storage facility and generated clean ore that enabled early commissioning and ramp-up of the processing plant, with production in the last two quarters exceeding targets and building strategic stockpiles that will underpin mill feed and feed security through early FY27. Underground development and production are progressing as planned, delivering consistent high-quality ore to the mill and giving the operation flexibility to prioritise higher-margin ore and scale output in line with market demand, reinforcing Liontown’s growth trajectory and operational resilience in the lithium sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Buy with a A$1.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

VanEck Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Liontown Resources
Dec 21, 2025

Van Eck Associates Corporation has notified Liontown Resources that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 17 November 2025, following a series of in‑kind and securities transactions executed through various VanEck entities. The change, detailed in a statutory Form 605 filing, indicates that one of Liontown’s prominent institutional investors has reduced its holding below the substantial shareholder threshold, potentially altering the company’s share register dynamics and signalling a shift in institutional ownership sentiment toward the stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Buy with a A$1.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Updates Securities Trading Policy Amid Lithium Growth Plans
Dec 19, 2025

Liontown Limited has released a revised Securities Trading Policy, lodged in line with ASX listing requirements and now available via the corporate governance section of its website, underscoring the company’s focus on maintaining robust governance standards around trading in its securities. The updated policy signals continued attention to compliance and transparency as Liontown advances its lithium assets and broader battery minerals strategy, a key consideration for investors and other stakeholders monitoring governance practices in the rapidly evolving critical minerals sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Buy with a A$1.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Secures Major Offtake Agreement with Canmax Technologies
Dec 8, 2025

Liontown Limited has executed a binding Offtake Agreement with Canmax Technologies, a leading producer of lithium chemicals, for the supply of 150,000 wet metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually in 2027 and 2028. This agreement, which uses a pricing formula based on spodumene concentrate indices, complements Liontown’s existing customer arrangements and supports its strategy to diversify its customer base geographically and across the battery value chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Van Eck Associates Ceases Substantial Holding in Liontown Resources
Dec 3, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has announced that Van Eck Associates Corporation and its associates have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 28, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could influence its market strategies and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Rebrands to Align with Strategic Focus on Battery Minerals
Dec 2, 2025

Liontown Limited has officially changed its name from Liontown Resources Limited following shareholder approval at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. The name change, recorded by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, will be reflected in the ASX trading from December 4, 2025. This rebranding aligns with the company’s strategic focus on expanding its presence in the battery minerals sector, potentially enhancing its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Updates Director’s Securities Holdings
Nov 28, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding the securities held by Antonino (Tony) Ottaviano through the SIAM Family Trust. The change involves the acquisition of short-term and long-term performance rights as part of Mr. Ottaviano’s remuneration arrangement, following shareholder approval at the company’s recent Annual General Meeting. This adjustment in director’s interest reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Issues Unquoted Equity Securities as Part of Employee Incentive Scheme
Nov 28, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including performance rights for FY25 and FY26, as well as sign-on rights. This move is part of their employee incentive scheme and reflects the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with long-term corporate goals. The issuance of these securities is likely to enhance employee motivation and retention, potentially strengthening the company’s operational capabilities and competitive positioning in the lithium market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Issues Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Nov 28, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced the issuance of 378,704 performance rights under its FY25 long-term incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are part of an employee incentive program, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with its strategic goals and long-term growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 28, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 22,485 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, indicating the company’s efforts to align employee interests with its growth and operational goals, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Secures Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM
Nov 26, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced that all resolutions were passed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. The resolutions included the re-election of directors, approval of remuneration rights, and a change of company name, reflecting a strong shareholder backing and strategic direction for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Completes Transition to Underground Lithium Mining
Nov 26, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has successfully transitioned to a fully underground lithium mining operation at its Kathleen Valley site, enhancing productivity and output as it ramps up to full production. The company has shipped over 360,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate globally and has strengthened its balance sheet with a $372 million capital raise. This financial boost supports the completion of the underground transition and positions Liontown for potential acquisitions aligned with its long-term strategy, which includes fulfilling Kathleen Valley’s potential, evaluating downstream opportunities, and expanding its portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources to Webcast 2025 AGM for Enhanced Shareholder Engagement
Nov 24, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced that it will webcast its 2025 Annual General Meeting on November 26, 2025, allowing shareholders to view proceedings and submit questions online. This move enhances shareholder engagement by providing access to those unable to attend in person, although voting will not be facilitated through the webcast.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Buy with a A$1.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources’ Successful Inaugural Spodumene Auction
Nov 19, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited successfully conducted its first digital spot sales auction for 10,000 wet metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate via the Metalshub platform, attracting over 50 qualified buyers from nine countries. The winning bid of US$1,254/dmt for SC6.0-equivalent product highlights the effectiveness of providing equitable and competitive access to quality products. This auction outcome validates Liontown’s strategy and indicates an improving market with increased buyer confidence. The company plans to continue holding online auctions as part of its ongoing operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Buy with a A$1.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Director Adjusts Shareholding to Meet Tax Obligations
Nov 13, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, involving Antonino (Tony) Ottaviano, who has disposed of 1,407,879 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This transaction was conducted to satisfy personal tax obligations related to various performance rights incentives. The change reflects a strategic financial decision by the director, which may have implications for the company’s stock performance and investor perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Buy with a A$1.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Partners with Metalshub for Spodumene Auction
Nov 12, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has partnered with Metalshub to launch its first spodumene concentrate auction, marking a significant step in the commercialisation of its Kathleen Valley Lithium Operation. This collaboration aims to enhance price transparency and streamline the sales process, potentially benefiting customers, shareholders, and partners in the clean energy supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Director Increases Stake through Performance Rights Exercise
Nov 7, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Antonino (Tony) Ottaviano, who exercised vested performance rights, resulting in an increase in his indirect holding of fully paid ordinary shares. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Bolsters Capital with New Securities Issuance
Nov 5, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced the issuance of 558,806 new ordinary fully paid securities as part of their ongoing capital management strategy. This move is likely to strengthen the company’s financial position and support its growth initiatives in the lithium sector, potentially enhancing its market standing and offering value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Issues Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan
Oct 31, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced the issuance of 558,806 fully paid ordinary shares to CPU Share Plans Pty Limited as trustee for the Liontown Resources Limited Employee Share Trust. This move is part of their Employee Securities Incentive Plan, aimed at satisfying the exercise of vested performance rights, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to rewarding its employees and aligning their interests with corporate growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Issues Unquoted Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Oct 31, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced the issuance of 5,750 unquoted securities under an employee incentive scheme, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s growth, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Issues Unquoted Securities to Employees
Oct 31, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited announced the issuance of 365,355 unquoted securities under an employee incentive scheme, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move reflects the company’s efforts to incentivize its workforce, potentially enhancing employee engagement and aligning their interests with the company’s long-term growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Reports September Quarter FY25 Results
Oct 28, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has released its September Quarter FY25 results, highlighting its ongoing operations and future plans. The company is transitioning to underground mining at its Kathleen Valley project in FY26, which could impact production and sales estimates. This strategic move is part of their efforts to enhance operational efficiency and maintain their competitive position in the lithium market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Reports Strong Quarter with Increased Underground Production and Fortified Financial Position
Oct 28, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited reported a strong quarter, marked by significant progress in its underground ramp-up and a fortified financial position. The company achieved a 105% increase in underground ore mined, reaching a 1Mtpa run-rate, and produced 87,172 dmt of spodumene concentrate. With the open pit nearing completion and underground production scaling, Liontown is positioned for improved recoveries and stronger financial outcomes in future quarters. The company also completed a capital raising and amended its Ford debt facility, enhancing liquidity and strategic flexibility to capitalize on lithium market opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Liontown Resources Announces 2025 AGM and Push for Digital Communications
Oct 24, 2025

Liontown Resources Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2025, at the Parmelia Hilton Perth. The company encourages shareholders to receive communications electronically to promote environmental sustainability and reduce waste. Shareholders will have the option to vote online if unable to attend the meeting physically.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LTR) stock is a Sell with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liontown Resources Limited stock, see the AU:LTR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 13, 2026