Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (HVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.68B
• Dividend Yield: 3.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 5.09%
• EPS Growth: 46.94%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 6,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Department Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 1,246,006,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,964,659
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,277,019
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$6.71
• Price Target Upside: 25.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$4.65B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$6.00 ▲(11.94% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 09/04/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 09/04/25

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd scores well due to strong financial performance and bullish technical indicators. However, the overbought technical conditions and moderate valuation metrics slightly temper the overall score. Continued attention to debt management and cash flow efficiency will be important for sustaining growth.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue Growth

A near-23% revenue increase demonstrates sustained demand across core categories and recovery momentum. Robust top-line growth supports scale economics, improves bargaining power with suppliers and franchisees, and strengthens recurring wholesale and property-related cash flows over coming quarters.

High and Improving Margins

Maintaining gross margins above 50% and a rising net margin provides durable earnings protection versus cost inflation. Strong margins support franchisor margins and property returns, enable dividend capacity and reinvestment in omnichannel capabilities, and cushion profitability through business cycles.

Conservative Capital Structure

A healthy equity ratio and moderate leverage give the company balance-sheet flexibility to fund property holdings and franchise support without excessive refinancing risk. This capital resilience helps absorb property valuation swings and underpins strategic investments or distributions over time.

Negative Factors

Rising Total Debt

An upward trend in total debt raises interest and refinancing exposure despite modest current leverage. If consumer spending softens or property values decline, higher debt limits financial flexibility, raises liquidity risk and could force trade-offs between capex, dividends and debt servicing over the medium term.

Eroding Operational Margins

Slight declines in EBIT/EBITDA margins point to operational pressures such as higher input costs, promotional intensity or mix shifts. Continued margin compression would reduce operating leverage, constrain free cash flow growth and weaken the ability to reinvest in stores or digital capabilities.

Weaker Cash Conversion

A falling operating cash flow-to-net income ratio suggests weaker conversion of accounting profits into cash, often from working-capital strain or timing. Persistent deterioration limits internal funding for capex, property upkeep and dividends, increasing reliance on external financing and raising liquidity risk.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited engages in the integrated retail, franchise, property, and digital system businesses. It franchises and sells products in various categories, including electrical goods, furniture, computerized communications, bedding and Manchester, kitchen and small appliances, bathroom and tiles, and carpets and floorings. As of June 30, 2022, the company operated 195 franchised complexes under the Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne brands in Australia; and 109 company-operated stores under the Harvey Norman brand in New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Slovenia, Croatia, Ireland, and Northern Ireland. It is also involved in the property investment and media placement activities; acts as a lessor of premises to Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne franchisees and other third parties, as well as retail properties; development and sale of properties; and provision of consumer finance and other commercial loans and advances. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Homebush West, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

HVN makes money primarily through (1) retail and franchise-related earnings and (2) property-related income and investment returns. Retail/franchise earnings are generated from selling products such as furniture, bedding, home appliances, consumer electronics, and technology products to consumers via physical stores and online channels; profitability depends on sales volumes, product mix, pricing, and gross margins, as well as supplier terms and promotional activity. A significant portion of the Harvey Norman-branded store network operates under a franchise model: franchisees run stores while HVN earns income through wholesale/retail supply to those stores and through franchise-related fees and charges (exact fee structures vary and are not specified here). The property segment contributes through rental income (including rent paid by franchised and company-operated stores where applicable) and through changes in value and/or proceeds from property and investment activities (specific valuation outcomes vary by period). Additional contributors can include finance/extended warranty and other service-related income associated with retail transactions; if and when these are present, they typically arise from commissions or service margins rather than product sales. Overall earnings are influenced by consumer spending conditions, housing turnover and renovation cycles, supplier relationships and rebates/terms, store network performance, and property market conditions affecting rental yields and asset values.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth of 22.998% and improved profitability. The balance sheet shows a solid capital structure, though rising debt levels could pose a risk. Cash flow generation is strong, but there are potential challenges in cash flow management.

Income Statement

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 22.998% in the most recent year, indicating a robust recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin remains stable above 50%, and the net profit margin has improved to 12.57%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to earlier years, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48, indicating moderate leverage and a strong equity base. Return on equity has improved to 10.79%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 57.35%, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has remained stable, and free cash flow has grown by 22.396%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.74, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, indicating potential challenges in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.35B	4.12B	3.92B	3.98B	4.14B	4.15B
Gross Profit	2.01B	2.10B	1.99B	1.94B	2.12B	2.16B
EBITDA	1.04B	1.06B	837.26M	1.08B	1.39B	1.37B
Net Income	560.53M	518.02M	352.45M	539.52M	811.53M	841.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.77B	8.37B	7.93B	7.67B	7.25B	6.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	385.35M	279.69M	273.47M	218.75M	248.80M	305.71M
Total Debt	3.73B	2.29B	2.28B	2.18B	1.90B	1.74B
Total Liabilities	3.82B	3.53B	3.39B	3.21B	2.95B	2.78B
Stockholders Equity	4.91B	4.80B	4.50B	4.43B	4.26B	3.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	498.02M	510.74M	494.37M	492.60M	502.38M	443.57M
Operating Cash Flow	639.09M	694.30M	686.53M	680.26M	597.30M	543.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-224.32M	-222.54M	-301.18M	-333.48M	-178.79M	-254.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-328.34M	-445.62M	-334.25M	-379.07M	-432.87M	-335.47M

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.07, below the 50-day MA of 6.45, and below the 200-day MA of 6.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:HVN.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUL	71 Outperform	AU$3.32B	8.69	16.46%	7.20%	4.83%	-7.62%
JBH	68 Neutral	AU$8.54B	8.60	29.12%	2.54%	10.03%	5.38%
HVN	66 Neutral	AU$6.68B	6.72	10.92%	3.73%	5.09%	46.94%
PMV	63 Neutral	AU$2.03B	22.96	10.29%	3.56%	-48.80%	-35.88%
BLX	63 Neutral	AU$436.90M	9.38	16.86%	2.86%	1.89%	-3.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MYR	42 Neutral	AU$552.88M	-0.75	-36.66%	6.38%	13.78%	-413.50%

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Corporate Events

Harvey Norman lifts half-year profit and dividend on strong sales and tight cost control

Harvey Norman reported a strong half-year result to 31 December 2025, with profit before tax rising 16.5% to $466.31 million on the back of 6.9% growth in system sales to $5.16 billion and tighter cost control. Earnings improved across franchising, overseas retail and property, pushing basic earnings per share up 15.3% and supporting a 20.8% increase in the fully franked interim dividend to 14.5 cents per share.

Australian franchisee sales grew 4.8%, driven by demand in technology-led categories such as AI-enabled computing and mobile devices, while company-operated sales rose 11.6% helped by new stores and stronger trading in New Zealand, Ireland, Slovenia, Croatia, Singapore and Malaysia. A stronger, conservatively geared balance sheet, robust operating cash flow and continued sales momentum into January 2026 position the group to fund further expansion, even as UK operations still incur establishment losses.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Buy with a A$7.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.

Harvey Norman Sets 2026 Dividend Timetable in Half-Year Appendix 4D

Harvey Norman Holdings has released its Appendix 4D half-year report for the period ended 31 December 2025, outlining its financial performance and position ahead of key 2026 dividend dates. The company has confirmed its timetable for announcing the interim and final 2026 dividends and associated record and payment dates, providing clarity to shareholders on expected cash returns over the year.

The report also details the company’s governance, including its registered office, share registry, auditors, solicitors and company secretary, underlining its status as an established ASX-listed retailer with formal oversight structures. In parallel with its financial disclosure, Harvey Norman highlights its ongoing community engagement by promoting support for emerging winter para-athletes, reinforcing a broader brand positioning that combines commercial activity with sports sponsorship and social initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Buy with a A$7.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.

Harvey Norman Faces Class Action Over Latitude Interest-Free Plans

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd has been named as the second defendant in a newly filed class action related to the promotion of Latitude Finance Australia interest-free payment plans. The claim seeks restitution, damages, declarations rendering certain consumer agreements with Latitude Finance Australia null and void, as well as interest and costs for the lead plaintiffs and group members.

The company has stated it intends to defend the proceedings vigorously and will provide further updates to the market in line with its continuous disclosure obligations. The action introduces potential legal and financial exposure and may draw regulatory and consumer attention to the way interest-free finance products are marketed in the Australian retail sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Buy with a A$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.