Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (HVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$8.17B
• Dividend Yield: 3.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 5.09%
• EPS Growth: 46.94%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 6,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Department Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 1,246,006,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,964,659
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,277,019
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$7.30
• Price Target Upside: 12.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$7.00 ▲(7.53% Upside)

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd scores well due to strong financial performance and bullish technical indicators. However, the overbought technical conditions and moderate valuation metrics slightly temper the overall score. Continued attention to debt management and cash flow efficiency will be important for sustaining growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth momentum

A near-23% revenue increase demonstrates durable demand recovery across Harvey Norman's multi-category retail mix. Scale across furniture, electronics and homewares plus broad distribution gives structural topline resilience and provides capacity to translate sales into recurring retail and property income streams.

Strong cash generation

Robust FCF growth and a 0.74 FCF-to-net-income ratio indicate efficient conversion of profits into cash. Reliable cash generation supports capital allocation flexibility for capex, dividends or debt reduction, enhancing long-term financial resilience through retail cycles without excessive external financing.

Diversified retail and property/franchise model

Combination of company retail, a large franchise network and a material property portfolio creates diversified, recurring income streams. Rental income and franchise-related fees lower capital intensity and stabilise cash flows versus pure-play retailers, offering a structural hedge in cyclical environments.

Negative Factors

Rising debt trend

Although leverage is moderate today, the noted increase in total debt raises long-term risk around interest costs and refinancing. Continued debt growth would reduce financial flexibility, pressure margins and constrain investment or dividend capacity if retail or property conditions weaken.

Weaker operating cash conversion

A falling operating cash flow-to-net-income ratio suggests weaker cash realisation from reported profits, potentially driven by working-capital or timing issues. If this persists, it can limit reinvestment, dividend sustainability and debt servicing despite healthy accounting earnings.

Pressure on operating margins

Small declines in EBIT and EBITDA margins point to rising cost or product-mix pressures that could erode operating leverage over time. Persistent margin compression would reduce free cash flow generation from revenue growth and make profitability more sensitive to inflation or supplier cost shifts.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited engages in the integrated retail, franchise, property, and digital system businesses. It franchises and sells products in various categories, including electrical goods, furniture, computerized communications, bedding and Manchester, kitchen and small appliances, bathroom and tiles, and carpets and floorings. As of June 30, 2022, the company operated 195 franchised complexes under the Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne brands in Australia; and 109 company-operated stores under the Harvey Norman brand in New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Slovenia, Croatia, Ireland, and Northern Ireland. It is also involved in the property investment and media placement activities; acts as a lessor of premises to Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne franchisees and other third parties, as well as retail properties; development and sale of properties; and provision of consumer finance and other commercial loans and advances. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Homebush West, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Harvey Norman generates revenue primarily through the sale of goods in its retail stores and online platforms. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of direct sales and franchise operations, where it earns income from franchising fees and royalties from franchisees. Key revenue streams include the sales of furniture, electronics, and appliances, which are complemented by financing options offered through partnerships with financial institutions. Additionally, HVN benefits from property investments and leasing income, with a significant portion of its earnings derived from its real estate portfolio, which includes retail spaces leased to franchisees.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth of 22.998% and improved profitability. The balance sheet shows a solid capital structure, though rising debt levels could pose a risk. Cash flow generation is strong, but there are potential challenges in cash flow management.

Income Statement

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 22.998% in the most recent year, indicating a robust recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin remains stable above 50%, and the net profit margin has improved to 12.57%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to earlier years, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48, indicating moderate leverage and a strong equity base. Return on equity has improved to 10.79%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 57.35%, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has remained stable, and free cash flow has grown by 22.396%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.74, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, indicating potential challenges in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.50B	4.12B	3.92B	3.98B	4.14B	4.15B
Gross Profit	1.92B	2.10B	1.99B	1.94B	2.12B	2.16B
EBITDA	914.39M	1.06B	837.26M	1.08B	1.39B	1.37B
Net Income	518.02M	518.02M	352.45M	539.52M	811.53M	841.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.37B	8.37B	7.93B	7.67B	7.25B	6.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	279.69M	279.69M	273.47M	218.75M	248.80M	305.71M
Total Debt	2.29B	2.29B	2.28B	2.18B	1.90B	1.74B
Total Liabilities	3.53B	3.53B	3.39B	3.21B	2.95B	2.78B
Stockholders Equity	4.80B	4.80B	4.50B	4.43B	4.26B	3.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	510.74M	510.74M	494.37M	492.60M	502.38M	443.57M
Operating Cash Flow	694.30M	694.30M	686.53M	680.26M	597.30M	543.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-222.54M	-222.54M	-301.18M	-333.48M	-178.79M	-254.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-445.62M	-445.62M	-334.25M	-379.07M	-432.87M	-335.47M

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.51
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.65, below the 50-day MA of 6.93, and above the 200-day MA of 6.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:HVN.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUL	71 Outperform	AU$3.33B	15.02	16.46%	7.20%	4.83%	-7.62%
HVN	66 Neutral	AU$8.17B	15.78	10.92%	3.73%	5.09%	46.94%
PMV	63 Neutral	AU$2.13B	12.83	10.29%	3.56%	-48.80%	-35.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
JBH	58 Neutral	AU$8.96B	19.38	29.12%	2.54%	10.03%	5.38%
BLX	55 Neutral	AU$603.17M	20.37	16.86%	2.86%	1.89%	-3.30%
MYR	42 Neutral	AU$734.30M	-2.64	-36.66%	6.38%	13.78%	-413.50%

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd Corporate Events

Harvey Norman Announces Director’s Interest Changes

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its directors, specifically John Evyn Slack-Smith and Chris Mentis. The announcement, authorized by Company Secretary Chris Mentis, details the acquisition of 90,500 FY26 Performance Rights by John Evyn Slack-Smith, reflecting the company’s ongoing adjustments in director holdings, which could influence stakeholder perceptions and the company’s governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Hold with a A$7.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.

Harvey Norman Issues New Employee Incentive Securities

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd has announced the issuance of 181,000 unquoted securities under its employee incentive scheme, specifically as FY26 Performance Rights. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain key employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Hold with a A$7.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.

Harvey Norman AGM: Key Resolutions Passed, Director Appointment Rejected

At the Annual General Meeting held on November 26, 2025, Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd announced that all resolutions were passed except for the appointment of Mr. Stephen Mayne as a director. The meeting outcomes reflect the company’s ongoing governance and strategic decisions, impacting its leadership structure and potentially influencing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Buy with a A$7.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.

Harvey Norman Highlights Global Expansion and Milestones at AGM

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd presented an overview of its international store operations and expansion strategy at its Annual General Meeting. The company highlighted its recent store openings, including a major expansion in Queensland, Australia, and new locations in New Zealand’s South Island, which enhance its market presence. The expansion reflects Harvey Norman’s strategic focus on large format retail in high-value metropolitan growth centers. The company also celebrated the 10th anniversary of its flagship store in Singapore, emphasizing its success in delivering exceptional in-store experiences.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Buy with a A$7.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.

Harvey Norman Posts Strong Sales Growth Amid Global Expansion

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd reported a 9.1% increase in aggregated sales revenue for the period from July 1, 2025, to November 20, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was supported by currency appreciations in several markets and the opening of new stores in Singapore and Malaysia, despite some store closures. The company’s strong performance, particularly in the United Kingdom and Slovenia & Croatia, highlights its robust market positioning and potential positive impact on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HVN) stock is a Buy with a A$7.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd stock, see the AU:HVN Stock Forecast page.