BCAL Diagnostics Limited (BDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$35.39M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 421.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 23.85%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 368,683,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 534,308
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 421,904
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1047.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.10 ▼(-4.00% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance, including severe revenue decline, deep losses, negative ROE, and negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals are also bearish due to price trading below major moving averages, though the extremely oversold RSI modestly offsets this. Valuation is constrained by ongoing losses and the absence of a dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Manageable leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38 indicates moderate leverage and limited reliance on external debt. Over the next several months this balance-sheet posture preserves financial flexibility for R&D and commercialization milestones, lowering near-term refinancing and solvency risk compared with highly leveraged peers.

Equity funding cushion

An equity ratio of ~62.8% shows a capital structure skewed toward equity financing, providing a buffer to absorb losses and support continued clinical development. This structural capital mix reduces immediate liquidity pressure and helps sustain operations through development phases without immediate large debt repayments.

Clear clinical focus & IP

A focused business model centered on breast‑cancer blood tests and related IP targets a large, enduring market with structural demand for earlier detection. If clinical validation and regulatory steps progress, the lab‑based assay model can scale recurring revenue and create durable competitive barriers via proprietary diagnostics.

Negative Factors

Severe revenue collapse

A nearly 100% revenue decline signals loss of commercial traction or discontinued revenues and undermines the business model's ability to generate sustainable sales. Over a 2–6 month horizon this heightens reliance on financing, raises execution risk for commercialization, and weakens negotiating leverage with partners.

Deep negative profitability

An extreme negative net margin reflects substantial operating losses relative to revenue and persistent cost structure issues. Such deep losses are structurally dilutive, force repeated capital raises or cost restructuring, and impede reinvestment in trials or commercialization that are essential for long‑term value creation.

Negative operating cash flow

Consistently negative operating and free cash flow indicate the company is not funding operations internally and is dependent on external capital. This structural cash shortfall increases financing and dilution risk, potentially constraining development timelines and commercialization efforts in the medium term.

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BCAL Diagnostics Limited, a biotechnology company, engages in developing a non-invasive laboratory blood test for the detection of breast cancer. It develops BCAL test, a lipid biomarker blood test with the potential to be used for breast cancer prevention, screening, and monitoring; and in vitro diagnostic test (IVD) that confirms a fingerprint of lipid biomarkers extracted from extracellular vesicles from a patient's plasma or blood sample to diagnose the presence of breast cancer cells in a patient's body. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

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BCAL Diagnostics Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is weak: revenue collapsed (-99.16%) with extremely negative profitability (net margin -334.66%) and negative returns (ROE -116.40%). Cash generation is also concerning with negative operating and free cash flow, despite only moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.38).

Income Statement

BCAL Diagnostics Limited shows a concerning trend in its income statement. The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue, with a negative revenue growth rate of -99.16% in the most recent year. The net profit margin is deeply negative at -334.66%, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies and high costs. Overall, the income statement highlights severe profitability challenges and declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of BCAL Diagnostics Limited reveals moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -116.40%, indicating that the company is not generating returns for its shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 62.77%, suggesting a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Despite the low leverage, the negative ROE points to profitability issues.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a free cash flow growth rate of -14.23%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company is not generating cash from its operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.13, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow. Overall, the cash flow situation is concerning due to negative cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31M	21.64K	3.10M	2.79M	718.67K	275.25K
Gross Profit	915.90K	21.64K	3.10M	2.79M	698.06K	275.25K
EBITDA	-7.74M	-6.19M	-5.67M	-7.72M	-4.06M	-1.80M
Net Income	-7.16M	-7.24M	-6.40M	-5.06M	-3.39M	-1.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.17M	9.91M	12.27M	8.37M	10.59M	4.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.33M	4.52M	6.47M	3.17M	9.57M	3.41M
Total Debt	3.78M	2.38M	1.52M	1.06M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	4.68M	3.69M	3.68M	3.16M	950.42K	525.60K
Stockholders Equity	2.50M	6.22M	8.59M	5.21M	9.64M	3.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.46M	-6.92M	-5.67M	-6.41M	-7.25M	-1.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.96M	-6.14M	-4.52M	-6.05M	-3.22M	-1.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-196.42K	-787.67K	-1.15M	3.64M	-4.03M	-3.85K
Financing Cash Flow	2.48M	4.97M	8.97M	13.24K	9.41M	4.20M

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.12, below the 50-day MA of 0.12, and above the 200-day MA of 0.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 8.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BDX.

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
RHY	49 Neutral	AU$79.53M	-4.75	-476.27%	―	―	56.42%
LDX	49 Neutral	AU$227.35M	-7.39	-164.12%	―	12.96%	40.81%
IBX	43 Neutral	AU$9.32M	-1.61	142.99%	―	-47.02%	94.37%
BDX	42 Neutral	AU$35.39M	-2.45	-164.22%	―	―	23.85%
IIQ	38 Underperform	AU$51.38M	-3.02	-37.14%	―	2.33%	12.50%

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Corporate Events

BCAL Diagnostics Issues New Shares to Service Provider Under Cleansing Notice

BCAL Diagnostics has issued 615,651 new shares to a service provider at a deemed price of $0.09475 per share under ASX Listing Rule 7.1, expanding its share capital without undertaking a public disclosure document. The company confirmed it is up to date with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations and stated there is no excluded information that would need to be disclosed to the market under the Corporations Act.

The cleansing notice under section 708A(5)(e) allows the newly issued shares to be traded on an unrestricted basis, supporting the company’s ability to compensate service providers with equity. This move underscores BCAL Diagnostics’ ongoing use of its placement capacity while signalling to investors that regulatory compliance and transparency requirements have been satisfied as at the date of the notice.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics Issues Shares to Settle Service Provider Invoice

BCAL Diagnostics has applied to the ASX for quotation of 615,651 new fully paid ordinary shares issued on March 5, 2026. The shares arise from an agreement with a service provider to settle part of an invoice in equity, indicating the company is using scrip-based payments to manage cash outflows and preserve liquidity.

This equity-based settlement modestly increases BCAL Diagnostics’ share count and may slightly dilute existing shareholders while supporting the company’s operational commitments. The move underscores the firm’s continued reliance on capital markets and non-cash consideration as it advances its diagnostics activities and maintains relationships with key suppliers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Director Jayne Shaw Increases Shareholding via On-Market Purchase

BCAL Diagnostics has disclosed a change in the interests of director Jayne Shaw, who increased her holding in the company through an on-market purchase of additional ordinary shares. The transaction, completed on 20 February 2026 for 192,000 shares at a total consideration of $23,615, modestly lifts her direct and indirect equity position in the diagnostics group.

The purchase underscores continued alignment between the director and shareholders, as Shaw maintains significant exposure to BCAL Diagnostics’ equity alongside existing share and option holdings. No interests in related contracts were reported to have changed, and the trade was conducted outside a closed period, indicating routine compliance with the company’s governance and disclosure obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics Accelerates Commercial Rollout of Cancer Blood Tests and Targets Broader Market for BREASTESTplus

BCAL Diagnostics has commenced the commercial rollout of its Avantect blood-based diagnostic tests for pancreatic and ovarian cancer, launching first at Sydney Breast Clinic, where it recorded about 1,000 enquiries, 60 bookings and 20 tests in the first 11 days. The company is expanding access via Sonic Healthcare pathology sites across New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, onboarding additional ovarian screening centres and a first Melbourne site, and has established operational readiness with laboratory, logistics and reporting processes in place. Tests are priced at $1,495 per individual test and $1,995 for combined testing, delivering positive gross margins at current volumes, and BCAL expects Avantect revenues of $300,000 in calendar 2026, while working with national pancreatic cancer advocacy groups on health economic evidence to support reimbursement. In parallel, BREASTESTplus continues to gain traction, with 108 tests sold in Q2 FY26 and new study data in 613 women with high breast density showing 90% sensitivity and a projected negative predictive value of 99.7%, significantly broadening its potential clinical coverage. Following engagement with the TGA and ongoing studies in about 800 Australian women, BCAL expects to launch an enhanced version of BREASTESTplus with broader clinical utility in the Australian market by the end of June 2026, underscoring its strategy to scale clinical adoption and strengthen its competitive position in early cancer detection.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics Ramps Up Cancer Test Launches as Clinical Data and Funding Strengthen Growth Plans

BCAL Diagnostics has completed preparations for the Australian launch of its Avantect blood tests for pancreatic and ovarian cancer, with initial availability from 19 January 2026 in Sydney and a national rollout planned later in the year, targeting high‑risk patients who currently lack effective early detection options. The company is also expanding the clinical and commercial footprint of its BREASTESTplus blood test for women with dense breast tissue, supported by new Australian study data showing high sensitivity and a strong negative predictive value, and by national ethics approval to establish a registry of up to 24,000 women that is expected to underpin wider clinician adoption and potential reimbursement pathways; financially, BCAL ended the quarter with $3.3 million in cash, added a $10 million convertible note facility with $3 million drawn, received a $2.5 million R&D tax refund, and is now focused on revenue generation and market awareness following the launch of its new cancer tests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.