BCI Minerals Ltd (BCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.22B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 580.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 2,937,579,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 832,681
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 580,888
• PEG Ratio: -0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 132.38
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.50
• Price Target Upside: 19.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.41 ▼(-3.10% Downside)

BCI Minerals Ltd's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, with significant challenges in profitability and cash flow management. The technical analysis provides a slightly better outlook with some medium-term support, but the valuation remains a concern due to the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Strong equity ratio

A 64.06% equity ratio indicates a solid capital structure, reducing refinancing and solvency risk during project build and ramp phases. This durability supports access to debt markets, underpins long-term project financing options, and provides a buffer against cost overruns over the next 2–6 months.

Free cash flow growth

Nearly doubling free cash flow demonstrates improving cash generation capacity, which can support sustaining capex and debt servicing without immediate external equity. If sustained, higher FCF improves strategic flexibility for project completion and de-risks funding needs across the medium term.

Sharp revenue ramp

A very large revenue increase suggests operational scale-up or successful commercialization of key assets (Mardie). Sustained higher volumes can spread fixed costs, enable unit-cost reductions, and underpin future margin recovery and cash generation if production and logistics remain stable over coming months.

Negative Factors

Negative operating cash flow

Persistently negative operating cash flow signals weak cash conversion from core activities, forcing reliance on financing or non-operational cash. Over the medium term this elevates liquidity risk during capital-intensive project phases and can constrain the company’s ability to fund sustaining capex or absorb delays.

Negative margins

Negative gross and net margins indicate operations are not yet profitable after direct and overhead costs. Without structural cost reductions or improved realisation, continued negative margins undermine free cash flow sustainability and the company’s ability to generate returns from large-scale salt and SOP production.

Negative return on equity & leverage

A negative ROE shows capital is not delivering shareholder returns, while a moderate 0.48 debt/equity adds servicing obligations. This combination can limit investor confidence and flexibility to raise growth capital, increasing risk if project cash generation stalls during the next 2–6 months.

BCI Minerals Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BCI Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral assets in Australia. The company explores for salt, iron ore, and sulphate of potash deposits. It primarily focuses on its 100% interest owned in the Mardie Salt and Potash Project located in the West Pilbara coast, as well as owns interest in the Iron Valley mine located in the Central Pilbara. The company was formerly known as BC Iron Limited and changed its name to BCI Minerals Limited in December 2017. BCI Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

BCI Minerals generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of potash and salt products. The company’s key revenue streams come from the Mardie Project, which is expected to capitalize on the increasing demand for potassium sulfate in agriculture due to its benefits as a fertilizer. Additionally, BCI may secure revenue through strategic partnerships and offtake agreements with buyers in the agricultural sector, ensuring a steady market for its products. The company's ability to establish strong relationships with distributors, fertilizer manufacturers, and agricultural cooperatives plays a significant role in its revenue generation strategy.

BCI Minerals Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BCI Minerals Ltd is facing challenges in profitability and cash flow management, despite a recent surge in revenue growth. The company has a moderate level of leverage, but negative returns on equity and margins suggest inefficiencies. The cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating cash flow and reliance on non-operational sources. Overall, the financial health of the company is under pressure, requiring strategic improvements in cost management and cash flow generation.

Income Statement

BCI Minerals Ltd has experienced significant volatility in its revenue growth, with a notable increase of 2523.98% in the most recent period, following a decline in previous years. However, the company is struggling with negative margins across the board, including a gross profit margin of -5.82% and a net profit margin of -8.11%, indicating challenges in profitability and cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.48, reflecting a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity is negative at -6.13%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio remains strong at 64.06%, indicating a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

BCI Minerals Ltd has shown a significant increase in free cash flow growth at 97.57%, but the operating cash flow remains negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 45.67, indicating a reliance on non-operational sources for cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in converting income into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.80M	5.80M	8.69M	60.16M	63.00M	162.46M
Gross Profit	-33.75M	-33.75M	-5.73M	3.78M	-675.00K	32.37M
EBITDA	-55.73M	-55.73M	-43.40M	-12.17M	-7.19M	26.98M
Net Income	-47.05M	-47.05M	-15.32M	9.38M	-15.48M	21.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.20B	1.20B	1.02B	614.92M	538.39M	227.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.27M	80.27M	265.64M	121.69M	271.34M	80.12M
Total Debt	369.13M	369.13M	113.84M	103.99M	20.50M	873.00K
Total Liabilities	430.26M	430.26M	216.22M	183.46M	104.16M	55.14M
Stockholders Equity	767.01M	767.01M	805.22M	431.46M	434.24M	172.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-412.56M	-396.15M	-243.10M	-231.50M	-103.11M	-7.79M
Operating Cash Flow	-8.67M	-8.67M	-27.07M	-1.91M	39.61M	9.23M
Investing Cash Flow	-377.89M	-380.92M	-212.35M	-219.90M	-142.68M	-16.88M
Financing Cash Flow	208.48M	208.48M	388.87M	99.26M	255.66M	45.55M

BCI Minerals Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BCI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.42, above the 50-day MA of 0.40, and above the 200-day MA of 0.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:BCI.

BCI Minerals Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMI	72 Outperform	AU$524.70M	10.73	14.01%	―	10.84%	―
DVP	68 Neutral	AU$1.72B	19.63	14.22%	―	57.22%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
BCI	46 Neutral	AU$1.22B	-20.24	―	―	―	―
IPX	46 Neutral	AU$2.47B	-39.75	-50.19%	―	―	-20.85%
VUL	43 Neutral	AU$1.78B	-10.88	-17.30%	―	16.06%	-50.94%
A4N	43 Neutral	AU$833.14M	-25.52	-13.97%	―	620.73%	-21.19%

BCI Minerals Ltd Corporate Events

BCI Minerals Highlights Sustainable Focus for Mardie Salt and SOP Project in Quarterly Update

BCI Minerals Ltd has released its December 2025 quarterly update, positioning the Mardie Project as a cornerstone asset aimed at delivering low-cost, world-class, and sustainable production of salt and sulphate of potash (SOP). The update reinforces the company’s focus on long-term value creation and sustainable growth, underpinned by a set of core values and a purpose-built strategy that targets operational excellence and benefits for its workforce, surrounding communities and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Sell with a A$0.42 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Pushes Mardie Project to 77% Completion and Strengthens Balance Sheet

In the December 2025 quarter, BCI Minerals advanced construction of its Mardie Salt Operation and Potash Project to 77% completion, with crystalliser lining underway, major earthworks for the salt wash plant and stockyard finished, and all primary approvals secured for offshore placement of dredged material from the Port of Cape Preston West program. Operational readiness also improved, with brine levels and densities across ponds 1 to 9 tracking to plan, trial SOP crystallisers achieving steady-state performance, and safety field leadership intensifying. On the corporate front, BCI drew a further $99.8 million from its syndicated debt facility, converted all Series 1 Convertible Notes held by AustralianSuper into equity—reducing borrowings by $29.1 million—and agreed a two-year capacity-building program with the Wirrawandi Aboriginal Corporation, reinforcing both its capital position and community partnerships as it enters a pivotal delivery phase for Mardie.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Sell with a A$0.42 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Sets Date for December 2025 Quarterly Report and Investor Call

BCI Minerals Limited will release its December 2025 Quarterly Report on 28 January 2026 and will hold a conference call the same day at 8:30 am AWST to discuss the results and provide a broader company update. Shareholders and investors will be able to access the briefing via a webcast with a synchronised slide presentation, underscoring the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparent communication and engagement with the market ahead of its quarterly disclosure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Sell with a A$0.39 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Wins Key Approvals for Optimised Dredging at Mardie Salt Project

BCI Minerals has secured all primary environmental approvals from both the Commonwealth and Western Australian governments to allow offshore placement of dredged material from its optimised dredging program at Cape Preston West Port, a critical step for constructing the berth pocket and navigation channel needed to load large ocean-going vessels with salt from the Mardie project. With these key regulatory milestones in place, the company can now finalise negotiations with its dredging contractor and update remaining management plans, keeping it on track to start dredging in April 2026 and targeting first salt shipments by the December 2026 quarter, which management says further de-risks the Mardie Salt Operation and supports its strategy to emerge as a major supplier to global industrial salt markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for 50 Million New Shares

BCI Minerals Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 50,066,748 new fully paid ordinary shares, with an issue date of 23 December 2025. The additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing instruments, will expand the company’s quoted share capital base and may enhance its trading liquidity and access to equity funding, with implications for current and prospective shareholders as BCI advances its mineral projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Reinforces Commitment to Sustainable Salt and SOP Production

BCI Minerals Ltd has announced its commitment to the Mardie Project, emphasizing its goal to deliver sustainable and high-quality salt and SOP. This initiative is expected to enhance the company’s operational efficiency and strengthen its market position, benefiting stakeholders by providing long-term value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Ltd Updates Share Trading Policy

BCI Minerals Ltd has released a revised Share Trading Policy in compliance with ASX Listing Rule 12.10. This policy outlines the guidelines for trading in the company’s securities by directors, officers, employees, and contractors, as well as their connected persons. The announcement signifies BCI’s commitment to maintaining transparency and compliance with regulatory standards, potentially impacting stakeholders by ensuring fair trading practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Ltd Updates on Director’s Interest in Securities

BCI Minerals Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding David Boshoff’s indirect interest in securities through the Boshoff Family Pty Ltd as trustee for the Boshoff Family Trust. The update includes the acquisition of 2,823,787 Performance Rights and 1,803,765 Share Rights for 2025, with no cash consideration involved. This change reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align its leadership’s interests with its strategic goals, potentially impacting its operational focus and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive

BCI Minerals Ltd announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 7,919,167 Performance Rights and 4,287,035 Share Rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Secures Shareholder Support at AGM

BCI Minerals Limited announced that all resolutions presented at its Annual General Meeting were successfully carried by a poll. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic initiatives, including the re-election of directors and approval of various rights plans, which are crucial for its operational and financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Ltd Honors Traditional Custodians at AGM

BCI Minerals Ltd held its Annual General Meeting, acknowledging the Traditional Custodians of the land across Australia, including the Yaburara and Mardudhunera People and the Whadjuk People of the Noongar Nation. The company expressed respect and support for the cultural, spiritual, and educational practices of First Nations People, emphasizing its commitment to honoring past and present custodians.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.

BCI Minerals Commences Operations at Mardie Project

BCI Minerals Ltd has announced a significant milestone with the commencement of operations at its Mardie project, marking a pivotal moment in the company’s history. The project, which has successfully navigated both State and Commonwealth environmental approvals, is set to deliver long-term benefits for shareholders and the Australian economy. The salt-first phase of the operation is fully funded, on schedule, and within budget, with first salt on ship expected by the end of 2026. This development positions BCI as a strong investment opportunity with potential for annuity-style returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BCI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCI Minerals Ltd stock, see the AU:BCI Stock Forecast page.