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Alpha HPA Limited (AU:A4N)
ASX:A4N
Australian Market

Alpha HPA Limited (A4N) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:A4N

Alpha HPA Limited

(Sydney:A4N)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.70
▼(-3.56% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by ongoing losses and negative operating cash flow, despite strong revenue growth and low leverage. Technicals add further pressure as the stock trades below major moving averages with weak momentum. Valuation provides little offset due to negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / conservative capital structure
A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02 indicates minimal leverage, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. For a capital-intensive materials developer, low debt preserves financial flexibility to fund pilot scale-up, R&D and project timelines without immediate pressure to service large borrowings.
Strong top-line growth
Very robust revenue growth signals accelerating commercial traction for Alpha HPA's processes and products. Sustained top-line expansion supports scale economies and market entry in specialist alumina markets, improving the odds of converting pilots into recurring industrial sales over months.
Strategic exposure to high-value HPA markets
Alpha HPA is focused on high-purity alumina for lithium-ion battery separators and other specialty uses, sectors with structural demand growth. A successful proprietary process and pilot testing could capture premium end-markets and support durable revenue streams if scale and quality targets are met.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability / large net losses
A net margin worse than -100% shows the company is losing substantially on current operations, limiting retained earnings and internal funding. Persistent large losses impair the capacity to self-fund expansion, increase reliance on external capital and heighten long-term viability risk.
Operating cash flow weakness
Negative operating cash flow despite free cash flow growth means core operations are not generating cash. This structural cash shortfall can constrain investment in commercialisation, require dilutive financings or debt, and delay transition from pilot to profitable production.
Negative return on equity and operational inefficiency
A negative ROE indicates the business is destroying shareholder value relative to its equity base, reflecting inefficient use of capital and weak operating returns. Until margins and cash generation improve, capital allocation and long-term investor returns remain questionable.

Alpha HPA Limited (A4N) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Alpha HPA Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlpha HPA Limited engages in the evaluation, exploration, and development of mineral properties. It primarily explores for high purity alumina (HPA) deposits. The company holds interest in the HPA First project located in Gladstone, Queensland. It also offers HPA and related products for use in the lithium-ion battery and light emitting diode lighting markets. The company was formerly known as Collerina Cobalt Limited and changed its name to Alpha HPA Limited in November 2018. Alpha HPA Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlpha HPA Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of high-purity alumina produced from its proprietary processing techniques. The company targets various industries, including electronics, automotive, and renewable energy, where HPA is in high demand. Key revenue streams include direct sales to manufacturers, long-term supply contracts, and potentially strategic partnerships with companies in related sectors. Additionally, as the demand for clean energy technologies grows, A4N stands to benefit from increased production and sales of HPA, driven by its competitive processing capabilities and market positioning.

Alpha HPA Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Despite very strong revenue growth, profitability is deeply negative (net margin -102.53%) and operating cash flow remains negative. The balance sheet is conservatively financed (debt-to-equity 0.02), but negative ROE (-14.87%) and persistent losses keep the financial profile weak.
Income Statement
25
Negative
Alpha HPA Limited has shown significant revenue growth, with a 253.34% increase in the latest year. However, the company is facing substantial profitability challenges, as indicated by negative margins across the board. The net profit margin is particularly concerning at -102.53%, reflecting ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also highlight operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, indicating minimal leverage and a conservative capital structure. However, the return on equity is negative at -14.87%, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is relatively healthy, showing a strong equity base compared to total assets.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals a mixed picture. While there is a significant free cash flow growth rate of 51.28%, the operating cash flow remains negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in converting net income to cash, but the overall cash flow position remains weak.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue317.52K317.52K44.05K16.15K38.74K0.00
Gross Profit-8.32M-3.01M-8.98M-983.56K-141.27K-47.19K
EBITDA-38.01M-28.91M-22.80M-16.26M-14.23M-17.12M
Net Income-32.56M-32.56M-24.98M-15.68M-7.36M-16.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets283.37M283.37M267.30M67.11M54.56M51.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments102.04M102.04M189.62M20.59M16.83M50.34M
Total Debt4.42M4.42M3.69M338.81K537.59K56.61K
Total Liabilities64.50M64.50M20.12M11.10M7.69M1.69M
Stockholders Equity218.88M218.88M247.17M56.02M46.87M50.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-103.78M-106.48M-47.75M-35.50M-34.95M-8.36M
Operating Cash Flow-18.24M-18.24M-22.42M-11.29M-3.76M-1.63M
Investing Cash Flow-69.39M-69.39M-25.13M-8.00M-31.14M-6.71M
Financing Cash Flow-367.52K-367.52K216.58M23.07M1.39M50.80M

Alpha HPA Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.73
Price Trends
50DMA
0.78
Negative
100DMA
0.80
Negative
200DMA
0.85
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
33.72
Neutral
STOCH
<0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:A4N, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.85, below the 50-day MA of 0.78, and below the 200-day MA of 0.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of <0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:A4N.

Alpha HPA Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
AU$736.26M13.1715.33%6.70%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
55
Neutral
AU$720.69M-39.87-7.50%51.47%
51
Neutral
AU$409.42M3.03145.87%45.56%
46
Neutral
AU$2.47B-39.75-50.19%-20.85%
44
Neutral
AU$422.73M-14.44-45.39%-91.89%
43
Neutral
AU$833.14M-25.52-13.97%620.73%-21.19%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:A4N
Alpha HPA Limited
0.73
-0.22
-23.16%
AU:AIS
Aeris Resources Limited
0.62
0.48
339.29%
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
0.07
<0.01
13.56%
AU:IPX
Iperionx Limited
7.35
3.14
74.58%
AU:LOT
Lotus Resources Limited
3.05
0.40
15.31%
AU:CAY
Canyon Resources Limited
0.21
-0.04
-14.58%

Alpha HPA Limited Corporate Events

Alpha HPA Raises A$225m to Accelerate Stage 2 HPA Project and Boost Funding to A$704m
Jan 30, 2026

Alpha HPA Limited has completed a fully underwritten A$225 million equity raising via a two-tranche institutional placement, with additional funds to be sought through a non-underwritten share purchase plan for eligible retail investors. Cornerstoned by a A$75 million investment from the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation and supported by major shareholders AustralianSuper and Orica as well as new domestic and global institutions, the capital raising lifts Alpha’s available funding capacity to as much as A$704 million when combined with existing cash and government-backed facilities, bolstering construction and commercialisation of Stage 2 of its HPA First Project and expanding Stage 1 capacity, thereby strengthening its role in semiconductor supply chains and Australia’s critical minerals and advanced manufacturing strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$0.81 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Steps Up HPA First Expansion as Semiconductor Demand Outstrips Stage 1 Capacity
Jan 29, 2026

Alpha HPA reported strong operational and commercial momentum in the December 2025 quarter, advancing construction of Stage 2 of its HPA First Project with delivery of the first large-scale offsite-fabricated process equipment, issuance of major structural, mechanical and piping contracts, and mobilisation of contractors, while maintaining continuous production at Stage 1. The company converted a letter of intent into a binding 2026 supply contract with a South Korean customer for thermal fillers in advanced chip packaging, is negotiating additional 2026 contracts in Japan that would exceed its current Stage 1 capacity, posted record semiconductor shipments in December, secured first high-value commercial sales at pricing significantly above feasibility study assumptions, progressed its Alpha Sapphire wafer qualifications for GaN power devices, and bolstered its balance sheet with A$30m in corporate funding from the QIC Critical Minerals and Battery Technology Fund, underscoring growing demand and premium pricing for its ultra-high purity products in key high-tech markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$0.88 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Plans Major Equity Raising via Placement and SPP
Jan 29, 2026

Alpha HPA Limited has announced plans to issue up to 313.3 million new ordinary fully paid shares through a combination of a placement and a securities purchase plan. The company intends to raise capital by issuing up to 300 million shares via a placement, with settlement targeted for early February 2026, and up to an additional 13.33 million shares under a securities purchase plan closing later in February, a move that will expand its equity base and may dilute existing shareholders while providing funding capacity for its ongoing corporate and operational objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$0.88 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Raises A$225m to Scale Up High-Purity Alumina for Semiconductor Demand
Jan 29, 2026

Alpha HPA has launched a fully underwritten A$225 million institutional placement at A$0.75 per share, alongside a share purchase plan for existing investors, to fund the construction and commercialisation of Stage 2 of its HPA First Project and to unlock further capacity from Stage 1. With cornerstone participation of A$75 million from the government-backed National Reconstruction Fund Corporation and strong support from major shareholders including Orica and AustralianSuper, the raise will leave Alpha with up to A$664 million in available funding lines, underpinning its progression to what it says will be the world’s largest single-site HPA manufacturing facility and strengthening its balance sheet to meet surging demand from the semiconductor and data-centre sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$0.88 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Requests Trading Halt Ahead of Major Equity Raising
Jan 28, 2026

Alpha HPA Limited has requested an immediate trading halt in its securities on the ASX as it prepares to announce a material equity raising to fund the delivery and commercialisation of Stage 2 of its HPA First Project. The halt will remain in place until either the capital raising announcement is released or normal trading resumes on Monday, 2 February 2026, signaling a significant financing step that could accelerate project development and potentially strengthen the company’s position in the high-purity alumina market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$0.88 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Locks In High-Value Semiconductor and Pharma Deals as Stage 2 Build Advances
Jan 20, 2026

Alpha HPA has reported strong momentum in securing high-value demand across semiconductor and pharmaceutical markets, converting a letter of intent into a binding 2026 supply contract in South Korea for thermal fillers used in high-bandwidth memory chip packaging, negotiating additional 2026 contracts in Japan that already exceed Stage 1 capacity, and advancing sapphire wafer qualifications with a leading power semiconductor manufacturer amid what it describes as robust pricing and demand for its low-alpha alumina products. The company has also initiated ongoing, low-volume but high-value commercial supply to pharmaceutical customers in South Korea and Japan at pricing above earlier modelling, while continuing to ramp up global test and sales orders, pass major customer site audits, and make tangible progress on construction of its large-scale Stage 2 HPA First Project, including delivery of key process equipment and mobilisation of structural and mechanical contractors, underscoring its push to entrench itself in critical high-tech supply chains.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$0.82 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Announces Director’s Interest Change Following Performance Rights Vesting
Dec 15, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited announced a change in the director’s interest following the vesting of performance rights for directors Marghanita Johnson and Annie Liu. This change reflects the conversion of performance rights into fully paid ordinary shares, indicating a potential positive outlook for the company’s leadership and alignment with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Dec 15, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited has announced the quotation of 3,640,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code A4N, effective December 15, 2025. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to enhance its market presence and operational capacity, potentially impacting its industry positioning by increasing its financial flexibility and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Updates Director’s Interest Post-AGM
Nov 28, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited announced a change in director’s interest notices following the approval and partial vesting of Performance Rights at its recent Annual General Meeting. This update reflects the company’s ongoing governance and incentive strategies, potentially impacting shareholder perceptions and director alignment with company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 27, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited has announced the quotation of 371,172 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code A4N. This move reflects the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its market presence and operational capacity, potentially impacting its industry positioning by increasing its available capital and shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Issues Unquoted Equity Securities as Employee Incentives
Nov 26, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities in the form of performance rights, with a total of 2,034,557 securities issued. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, highlighting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with corporate goals. The issuance of these securities is expected to strengthen Alpha HPA’s operational framework and enhance its competitive positioning in the advanced materials sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Limited Secures Shareholder Support at AGM
Nov 24, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting were passed successfully, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction and governance. This outcome reinforces the company’s stability and commitment to its stakeholders, potentially enhancing its market position and operational confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Limited Evaluates HPA First Project Feasibility Amid Funding Uncertainties
Nov 24, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited has conducted a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) to evaluate the HPA First project’s technical and financial feasibility. The study indicates that additional funding is required to achieve the desired outcomes, and there is uncertainty about securing this funding. The company may consider alternative strategies such as a sale or joint venture, which could affect its ownership stake in the project.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Limited Issues 20 Million Unquoted Options
Oct 31, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited announced the issuance of 20 million unquoted options set to expire on October 31, 2029, with an exercise price of $1.00. This move is part of previously announced transactions and reflects the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and support its long-term growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Alpha HPA Advances Major Projects Amid Rising Semiconductor Demand
Oct 31, 2025

Alpha HPA Limited has made significant progress in its HPA First Project, particularly in Stage 2, which is set to become the world’s largest facility for high purity aluminium materials. The company is seeing strong demand from the semiconductor sector, driven by its unique ability to deliver products with zero uranium/thorium content. With ongoing construction and new contracts in negotiation, Alpha HPA is well-positioned to meet future demand and expand its market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:A4N) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha HPA Limited stock, see the AU:A4N Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026