Avada Group Limited (AVD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$8.07M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: -10.48%
• EPS Growth: -1025.87%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Infrastructure Operations
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 84,935,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,390
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,625
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.09 ▼(-32.86% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and a clearly bearish price trend (below all key moving averages with negative MACD). These risks are partially offset by improving cash generation (strong free cash flow growth and positive operating cash flow vs. net loss), but losses and the negative P/E keep the overall outlook below average.

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation

The company has delivered very strong free cash flow growth (over 800%) and operating cash flow positive versus reported net loss. Durable cash generation improves liquidity, funds reinvestment or deleveraging, and reduces reliance on external financing over the next 2–6 months.

Positive gross profit margin

A positive gross profit margin indicates core operations still generate a surplus after direct costs, supporting pricing discipline and operational efficiency. This structural margin provides a foundation for margin recovery as revenue stabilizes and cost controls persist.

Balanced asset structure

A relatively stable equity ratio implies assets are not overly financed by short-term or volatile funding. This balanced structure enhances resilience to shocks, preserves operating flexibility, and supports medium-term investment or working capital needs.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue

Revenue contraction reduces scale economics and pressures margin recovery, making it harder to convert the positive gross margin into higher operating profits. Continued decline over several quarters would stress cash generation and limit reinvestment capacity.

Weak profitability and negative ROE

Reporting negative net income and a negative return on equity signals the business is not currently generating acceptable shareholder returns. Persisting losses erode equity value, constrain dividends, and limit the ability to self-fund growth initiatives.

Rising leverage

An increased debt-to-equity ratio raises financial risk by heightening interest and principal obligations. Higher leverage reduces flexibility to invest or absorb shocks, and if sustained, may force cost-cutting or asset sales to manage covenants or liquidity needs.

Avada Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AVADA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the traffic management operations in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria, Australia. It offers integrated traffic management services, including planning and permit, traffic control, equipment hire, event management, and incident response services. The company operates through a network of 27 depots and approximately 900 vehicles. It serves state and local governments, federally funded contractors, and other contractors in the utilities, infrastructure, construction, telecommunications, and other industrial sectors. AVADA Group Limited was founded in 2008 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

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Avada Group Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: revenue declined (-5.69%) and profitability is weak (negative net income and negative ROE), while leverage has increased. Offsetting this, cash flow is a bright spot with very strong free cash flow growth (over 800%) and positive operating cash flow relative to net income, suggesting improving underlying cash generation despite accounting losses.

Income Statement

Avada Group Limited has experienced a decline in revenue over the past year, with a negative revenue growth rate of -5.69%. The company also reported a negative net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin. However, the gross profit margin remains positive, indicating some level of operational efficiency. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, indicating higher leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed properly. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's struggles to generate profits from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Avada Group Limited has shown significant improvement in free cash flow growth, with an impressive increase of over 800%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that the company is generating cash from its operations despite reporting a net loss. This suggests a potential for future financial stability if the trend continues.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	193.42M	183.09M	204.54M	177.00M	72.93M	0.00
Gross Profit	14.00M	19.02M	16.39M	156.51M	65.02M	-173.00K
EBITDA	13.76M	9.20M	15.41M	7.04M	-8.94M	0.00
Net Income	-24.52M	-17.60M	1.51M	-5.63M	-12.54M	-415.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	93.50M	108.18M	131.47M	130.19M	89.81M	97.66M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.13M	7.33M	8.50M	10.83M	2.75M	192.00K
Total Debt	46.34M	40.20M	47.83M	46.66M	15.18M	360.00K
Total Liabilities	70.73M	71.53M	77.00M	83.73M	37.73M	38.46M
Stockholders Equity	22.76M	36.65M	54.47M	46.46M	52.09M	59.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.96M	7.63M	3.03M	3.42M	-2.59M	-169.00K
Operating Cash Flow	4.12M	10.33M	6.71M	4.96M	-950.00K	-169.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-1.53M	-3.38M	-13.74M	-26.78M	-35.01M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-2.44M	-8.01M	4.86M	31.90M	36.31M	361.00K

Avada Group Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.11, above the 50-day MA of 0.12, and below the 200-day MA of 0.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVD.

Avada Group Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KLS	69 Neutral	AU$1.05B	8.90	6.99%	4.06%	9.52%	-8.76%
DOW	64 Neutral	AU$4.99B	14.22	7.97%	3.11%	-4.53%	97.67%
VNT	64 Neutral	AU$4.57B	18.35	47.41%	3.56%	1.48%	25.46%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AVD	48 Neutral	AU$8.07M	-0.17	-33.41%	―	-10.48%	-1025.87%

Avada Group Limited Corporate Events

Avada Group lifts revenue but books impairment as transformation gains traction

Avada Group reported an 11% rise in operating revenue to $101.5 million for the first half of FY26, driven by strong growth in Queensland and New South Wales and resilient demand for traffic management services. Despite this, the company posted a statutory loss after tax of $16.5 million, largely due to a $15 million non-cash impairment of its Victorian business and a $0.6 million provision for legacy receivables.

Adjusted EBITDA improved to $7.1 million as early benefits flowed from Avada’s business transformation, including tighter labour and fleet utilisation and cost controls, with further gains expected in the second half. The group is reshaping its portfolio by shifting resources away from challenging unionised Victorian contracts toward more favourable regional markets, while optimising its New Zealand operations under a new management team.

Operational capability is being strengthened through leadership appointments, enhanced business development resources in Queensland and Victoria, and continued IT systems upgrades following a group-wide ERP rollout. Avada’s refinancing process is progressing with multiple offers under consideration, and the board expects transformation initiatives, margin improvements and a strong work pipeline to support better outcomes over the remainder of FY26.

As part of a structured succession plan, founder and Managing Director Dan Crowley will move into an Executive Director and Founder role over the next year, remaining actively involved and mentoring the next generation of leaders. The company continues to position itself as a partner of choice for government and private clients by emphasising safety, governance and public accountability, which it sees as a key competitive advantage in securing contracts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVD) stock is a Sell with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avada Group Limited stock, see the AU:AVD Stock Forecast page.

Avada revenue rises but Victorian impairment deepens half-year loss

Avada Group Limited reported an 11% rise in half-year revenue to $101.5 million for the six months to 31 December 2025, but losses widened sharply as deteriorating conditions in its Victorian operations triggered a $15 million impairment on goodwill and other intangibles. The group posted a net loss after tax of $16.5 million, booked a $0.6 million provision for legacy receivables, slightly reduced contingent consideration on a prior acquisition, maintained negative net tangible assets per share, and confirmed it will not pay an interim dividend.

The latest results underline ongoing operational and balance sheet pressures despite top-line growth, with the Victorian impairment highlighting regional weakness and its drag on group profitability. While the independent review delivered an unmodified audit opinion, the absence of dividends and continued negative tangible equity will likely concern investors focused on Avada’s path to sustainable earnings and capital strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVD) stock is a Sell with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avada Group Limited stock, see the AU:AVD Stock Forecast page.

Avada Group lifts cash receipts and expands funding as it deepens national traffic management push

Avada Group Limited reported a solid second quarter of FY26, with cash receipts rising 24% from the prior quarter to A$52.0 million on the back of strong December sales, while operating cash expenditures increased 14.4% in line with higher revenues and mobilisation costs. Despite a net operating cash outflow of A$2.5 million, cash and cash equivalents nearly doubled to A$4.1 million quarter-on-quarter and unused financing facilities expanded to A$15.3 million after the group’s trade finance facility was increased from A$17.5 million to A$20 million, providing additional liquidity headroom. Operationally, Avada continued to build out its national Avada Traffic model, secured multiple project wins and panel appointments mainly in Queensland and New South Wales, strengthened leadership with key appointments, and advanced an enterprise transformation program aimed at tightening commercial governance, pricing discipline and contract execution, which together are intended to reinforce its market positioning and support future growth in the civil infrastructure and maintenance sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.12 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avada Group Limited stock, see the AU:AVD Stock Forecast page.