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AGL Energy Limited (AU:AGL)
ASX:AGL
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AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AGL

AGL Energy

(Sydney:AGL)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.00
▼(-1.64% Downside)
AGL Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, profitability, and cash flow issues. While technical indicators and strategic investments in renewable assets provide some positive outlook, the negative P/E ratio and statutory losses are major concerns. The company's high dividend yield may appeal to some investors, but the financial health needs improvement for a stronger investment case.

AGL Energy (AGL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates through three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in generating electricity through coal and gas-fired generation, thermal, hydro, wind, batteries, and solar power plants; gas storage activities; and the retail sale of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, solar, and energy efficiency products and services. It operates electricity generation portfolio of 10,330 megawatts; the Newcastle gas storage facility in New South Wales; the Silver Springs underground gas storage facility in Queensland; natural gas production assets at Camden in New South Wales; and the North Queensland gas assets. The company serves 4.2 million customer accounts. AGL Energy Limited was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAGL makes money through various revenue streams, primarily by selling electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's retail division generates significant income from energy sales, supported by a diverse portfolio of power generation assets, which includes coal, gas, and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Additionally, AGL earns revenue from ancillary services related to energy management and grid stability. Key partnerships with technology providers and investments in renewable energy projects further enhance AGL's capabilities and market position, contributing to its overall earnings.

AGL Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
AGL Energy's earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong strategic execution, customer satisfaction, and safety improvements, offset by decreased earnings, statutory losses, and challenges in thermal fleet performance. The significant investments in renewable and flexible assets are promising for future growth, but current financial challenges weigh heavily.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Execution and Investments
AGL Energy deployed approximately $900 million towards battery developments and strategic investments in FY 2025. The company reached a final investment decision on the 500-megawatt Tomago battery, with the 500-megawatt Liddell battery on track for early 2026 operations.
Customer Satisfaction and Growth
Customer satisfaction remains strong at 81.6, and the strategic NPS doubled to a score of +8. Total services to customers increased by 78,000, driven by growth in telecommunications and Netflix services.
Improvement in Safety Metrics
AGL reported a material improvement in total injury frequency rate down to 2 per million hours worked, driven by safety awareness campaigns and targeted workshops.
Expansion in Renewable and Flexible Assets
AGL's development pipeline of 9.6 gigawatts has more than tripled since 2022, with a clear pathway to FID for 900 megawatts of grid-scale batteries. The flexible asset fleet has grown to 8.3 gigawatts.
Community and First Nations Support
AGL delivered a $90 million customer support package and invested $6 million in communities, including EV subscriptions and services for First Nations businesses, exceeding reconciliation targets.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Earnings and Profit
Expected decrease in earnings compared to FY 2024 due to lower wholesale electricity prices and consumer margin compression. EBITDA and underlying net profit after tax reduced compared to FY 2024.
Statutory Loss and Higher Net Debt
AGL reported a statutory loss for the year, with higher net debt of $2.9 billion, driven by significant cash outlay for growth and timing of bill relief impacting cash flow.
Thermal Fleet Performance Challenges
The commercial availability of the thermal fleet was down 12 percentage points due to additional planned major outages and unplanned downtime in the second half.
Consumer Margin Compression
Consumer margins were impacted by pricing decisions not to fully pass through cost increases, resulting in lower average demand and margin compression.
Impact of Coal and Gas Recontracting
Coal and gas recontracting are expected to impact earnings, although AGL aims to offset this with flexible assets investments.
Company Guidance
In the fiscal year 2025, AGL Energy reported strong financial performance in line with guidance, deploying approximately $900 million towards battery developments and strategic investments. The company achieved a customer satisfaction score of 81.6, with a strategic NPS doubling to plus 8 and a healthy market churn spread of 4.3 percentage points. Despite challenges such as lower fleet availability, AGL's flexible asset portfolio, particularly grid-scale batteries, mitigated earnings impacts. The company's EBITDA and underlying net profit after tax saw reductions due to factors like decreased wholesale electricity prices and strategic pricing decisions to aid customer affordability. AGL declared a fully franked dividend of $0.25 per share, totaling $0.48 for the year, equating to a 50% payout ratio. Looking ahead to FY '26, AGL aims to offset earnings impacts from coal and gas recontracting through investments in flexible assets, projecting an increase in EBITDA driven by improved plan availability and customer markets earnings.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AGL Energy faces a challenging financial landscape with declining revenues and profitability, as well as cash flow constraints. While the balance sheet shows a manageable level of debt, the negative return on equity and cash flow issues indicate potential risks. The company needs to address these challenges to improve its financial health and shareholder value.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
AGL Energy's income statement reveals a challenging financial period. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate by 4.76% in the latest year, indicating a contraction in sales. The gross profit margin improved to 21.16%, showing some operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin turned negative at -0.71%, reflecting a net loss, which is a significant concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting reduced profitability and operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, indicating a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -2.02%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 29.98%, reflecting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
AGL Energy's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -137.03%, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow constraints.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue14.39B13.84B13.58B14.16B13.22B10.94B
Gross Profit2.80B2.93B2.15B1.15B1.09B1.49B
EBITDA1.10B1.00B2.06B-700.00M2.13B-1.69B
Net Income-98.00M-98.00M711.00M-1.26B860.00M-2.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.20B16.20B15.66B15.24B19.27B15.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments332.00M332.00M971.00M376.00M341.00M370.00M
Total Debt3.31B3.31B2.73B2.88B2.88B3.19B
Total Liabilities11.35B11.35B10.23B10.12B12.75B9.95B
Stockholders Equity4.86B4.86B5.43B5.12B6.52B5.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-284.00M-284.00M1.40B288.00M591.00M555.00M
Operating Cash Flow841.00M841.00M2.24B912.00M1.23B1.25B
Investing Cash Flow-1.56B-1.56B-926.00M-729.00M-885.00M-937.00M
Financing Cash Flow99.00M99.00M-530.00M-159.00M-303.00M-366.00M

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.15
Price Trends
50DMA
8.64
Positive
100DMA
9.11
Positive
200DMA
9.74
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
61.48
Neutral
STOCH
82.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.98, above the 50-day MA of 8.64, and below the 200-day MA of 9.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
AU$80.47M12.2210.27%13.04%10.44%-55.67%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
63
Neutral
$11.86B119.113.23%6.25%4.61%-90.28%
50
Neutral
$6.01B-1.75%5.25%5.96%-113.79%
47
Neutral
AU$131.61M-4.74%70.00%
45
Neutral
AU$19.93M6.28-38.32%2.69%-273.87%
44
Neutral
AU$175.50M-67.88%-19190.91%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AGL
AGL Energy
9.15
-1.62
-15.03%
AU:APA
APA Group
9.12
2.50
37.76%
AU:COI
Comet Ridge Ltd
0.12
-0.04
-25.00%
AU:CUE
Cue Energy Resources Limited
0.12
0.03
33.33%
AU:EWC
Energy World Corporation Ltd
0.06
0.04
190.00%
AU:LPE
Locality Planning Energy Holdings Limited
0.12
-0.04
-25.00%

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy Appoints Betsy Donaghey as Non-Executive Director
Oct 3, 2025

AGL Energy Limited has announced the appointment of Elizabeth (Betsy) Donaghey as a non-executive director following her election at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. This appointment is part of AGL’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team as it continues to innovate and lead in the transition towards a sustainable energy future, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces Director Departure
Oct 3, 2025

AGL Energy Limited announced the cessation of Kerry Elizabeth Schott as a director, effective October 3, 2025. Schott, who held 26,500 ordinary shares through her superannuation fund, had no direct holdings in the company. This change in directorship could impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially affecting stakeholders and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces AGM Results and New Auditor Appointment
Oct 3, 2025

AGL Energy’s 2025 Annual General Meeting concluded with all resolutions passed, including the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as the new external auditor. The meeting also saw the re-election of directors and the approval of the Climate Transition Action Plan, indicating AGL’s ongoing commitment to sustainable energy practices. These developments are expected to strengthen AGL’s operational capabilities and reinforce its position as a leader in the energy transition, benefiting stakeholders and supporting its strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Holds 2025 Annual General Meeting, Emphasizing Transition to Sustainable Energy
Oct 3, 2025

AGL Energy Limited is conducting its 2025 Annual General Meeting, marking the first meeting with Miles George as Chair. The meeting is held as a hybrid event, allowing shareholders to participate in person or online, and includes opportunities for pre-submitted questions and proxy voting. This AGM reflects AGL’s ongoing commitment to shareholder engagement and transparency as it continues to innovate and transition towards a sustainable energy future.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces Director’s Interest Changes
Aug 29, 2025

AGL Energy Limited announced changes in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Damien Craig Nicks. The changes include the acquisition of ordinary shares and the lapse of performance rights under the company’s long-term incentive plan. These adjustments reflect the vesting of performance rights and the allocation of deferred STI awards, indicating a strategic alignment with the company’s executive compensation framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Issues New Securities to Strengthen Market Position
Aug 29, 2025

AGL Energy Limited has announced the issuance of 516,364 ordinary fully paid securities as of August 25, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing financial strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning by enhancing capital structure and providing more flexibility for future investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Reports FY25 Financial Results in Line with Guidance
Aug 22, 2025

AGL Energy Limited has announced its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2025, reporting an Underlying EBITDA of $2,010 million and an Underlying NPAT of $640 million, both aligning with its previously published earnings guidance. Despite a statutory loss of $98 million due to significant items and non-cash variances, AGL maintains that its underlying earnings are a more accurate reflection of its performance, aligning closely with market expectations and analyst forecasts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Director’s Shareholding Update
Aug 22, 2025

AGL Energy Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Damien Craig Nicks. The change involved the acquisition of 23,000 ordinary shares at an average price of $8.8387 per share, increasing the total number of shares held to 207,979. This adjustment in shareholding reflects strategic financial management and could impact the company’s market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Unveils 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan
Aug 21, 2025

AGL Energy has announced its 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan, reinforcing its commitment to decarbonization and shareholder value. The plan builds on its previous commitments to exit coal-fired generation by FY35 and enhance renewable capacity, demonstrating AGL’s proactive approach to the energy transition and its dedication to achieving net zero emissions for Scope 1 and 2.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Director Increases Shareholding
Aug 20, 2025

AGL Energy Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Director Miles John George acquiring an additional 10,000 ordinary shares, bringing his total to 60,000 shares. This acquisition, conducted through an on-market trade at an average price of $8.82 per share, reflects the director’s increased investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in AGL’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.43 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting
Aug 15, 2025

AGL Energy has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for October 3, 2025, at the City Recital Hall in Sydney. This meeting is a significant event for stakeholders, as it provides insights into AGL’s strategic direction and operational plans, reinforcing its position as a leader in the energy sector and its commitment to innovation and sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Limited: FY25 Earnings and Strategic Progress
Aug 14, 2025

AGL Energy Limited is a prominent Australian energy company that operates across electricity generation, gas storage, and retailing sectors, focusing on transitioning to renewable energy sources and supporting Australia’s decarbonization efforts. In its latest earnings report for the fiscal year ending June 2025, AGL highlighted its strategic advancements and financial performance, including a significant reduction in emissions and investments in renewable energy projects. Key financial metrics revealed an underlying net profit after tax of $640 million, despite a statutory loss of $98 million due to market conditions affecting contract provisions and financial instruments. The company declared a total dividend of 48 cents per share for FY25. AGL also reported progress in its decarbonization strategy, with a 29.1% reduction in scope 1 and 2 emissions from the FY19 baseline and substantial investments in battery and solar projects. Looking forward, AGL remains committed to its long-term strategy of energy transition, with ongoing investments expected to impact future profitability metrics, focusing on underlying EBITDA and operating free cash flow as key performance indicators.

AGL Energy Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 12, 2025

AGL Energy Limited has released its Appendix 4G and 2025 Corporate Governance Statement, authorized by its Board of Directors. This release underscores AGL’s adherence to ASX Corporate Governance Council recommendations and highlights its commitment to transparency and accountability in its operations. The statement is available on AGL’s website, ensuring stakeholders can access detailed governance disclosures. This move reinforces AGL’s position as a responsible leader in the energy industry, aligning with its strategic goals and enhancing stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Releases FY25 Full Year Results, Reinforces Commitment to Renewable Energy
Aug 12, 2025

AGL Energy has released its Full Year Results Presentation for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. This announcement underscores AGL’s ongoing commitment to innovation and leadership in the energy sector, particularly in renewable energy and smart energy solutions. The results are expected to impact the company’s operations and reinforce its position as a key player in the transition to sustainable energy, which is significant for stakeholders and the broader energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Reports FY25 Loss Amid Strategic Growth and Transition Efforts
Aug 12, 2025

AGL Energy reported a statutory loss of $98 million for FY25, impacted by significant items including onerous contracts and retail transformation costs. Despite a challenging year with lower wholesale electricity prices and customer margin compression, the company maintained a strong underlying EBITDA of $2,010 million. AGL’s strategic investments in battery developments and the acquisition of Tesla’s South Australia’s Virtual Power Plant highlight its commitment to growth and energy transition. The launch of AGL Community Power aims to extend the benefits of the energy transition to a broader customer base, while the company’s disciplined cost management and digitization efforts have kept operating costs stable.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces Dividend Distribution for Shareholders
Aug 12, 2025

AGL Energy Limited has announced a new dividend distribution of AUD 0.25 per share for its ordinary fully paid securities. This dividend relates to the six-month financial period ending on June 30, 2025, and will be paid on September 25, 2025. The announcement reflects AGL’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence investor sentiment positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Reports Revenue Growth Amid Financial Challenges
Aug 12, 2025

AGL Energy reported a 6% increase in revenue to $14,393 million for the year ending June 30, 2025, but faced a statutory loss of $98 million due to significant items and changes in financial instrument values. The underlying profit after tax fell by 21.2% to $640 million, reflecting challenges in financial performance. Despite these setbacks, AGL continues to focus on innovation and investment in renewable energy, aiming to strengthen its position in the energy market and support its transition to a sustainable future.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025