AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.54B
• Dividend Yield: 5.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: 15.96%
• EPS Growth: -40.06%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,735
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 672,747,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,282,357
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,795,701
• PEG Ratio: -0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $11.92
• Price Target Upside: 22.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$11.00 ▲(13.17%Upside)

AGL Energy's overall score reflects solid financial health with strong cash flows and efficiency. The earnings call provided reassurance despite operational challenges. However, technical indicators show weak momentum, and valuation concerns exist due to a high P/E ratio. The dividend yield provides some downside protection.

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates through three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in generating electricity through coal and gas-fired generation, thermal, hydro, wind, batteries, and solar power plants; gas storage activities; and the retail sale of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, solar, and energy efficiency products and services. It operates electricity generation portfolio of 10,330 megawatts; the Newcastle gas storage facility in New South Wales; the Silver Springs underground gas storage facility in Queensland; natural gas production assets at Camden in New South Wales; and the North Queensland gas assets. The company serves 4.2 million customer accounts. AGL Energy Limited was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGL Energy makes money primarily through three key revenue streams: energy generation, energy retailing, and gas production. The company generates electricity from its diverse portfolio of power stations and sells it to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. In the retail segment, AGL earns revenue by providing electricity and gas services directly to consumers, offering a range of plans and solutions tailored to customer needs. Additionally, the company is involved in the production and sale of gas, contributing to its earnings. AGL's significant partnerships and investments in renewable energy projects also play a crucial role in its revenue model as it seeks to expand its footprint in the sustainable energy sector.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy Limited shows solid financial health with robust cash flows and reasonable profitability margins. Concerns include declining revenue and moderate leverage, but strong cash flow generation and operational efficiency are positives.

Income Statement

AGL Energy Limited shows a mixed performance on its income statement. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 15.8% and a net profit margin of 5.2% for 2024, indicating good profitability. However, revenue has been declining at a rate of -4.1% from the previous year, which is a concern. The EBIT margin of 7.3% and EBITDA margin of 15.1% suggest operational efficiency, but the negative revenue growth rate could impact future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5, indicating a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity is 13.1%, showing decent profitability from equity investments. However, the equity ratio of 34.7% suggests that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed through debt, which could pose risks if liabilities increase.

Cash Flow

AGL Energy demonstrates strong cash flow performance with a significant free cash flow growth rate of over 386.8%, driven by improved operating cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.2 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.0 indicate efficient cash conversion and solid cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.58B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B	12.16B
Gross Profit	2.15B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B	2.26B
EBITDA	2.06B	-700.00M	2.13B	-1.69B	2.33B
Net Income	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B	1.01B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B	14.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M	357.00M
Total Debt	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B	3.11B
Total Liabilities	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B	6.63B
Stockholders Equity	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B	7.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M	1.40B
Operating Cash Flow	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B	2.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M	-835.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M	-1.25B

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.74, below the 50-day MA of 9.99, and below the 200-day MA of 10.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	72 Outperform	€12.98B	45.98	11.98%	4.61%	0.14%	7.58%
AGL	64 Neutral	$6.54B	28.19	4.36%	5.97%	15.96%	-40.06%
APAJF	―	$6.98B	7.34	-1.44%	6.83%	―	―
CUE	70 Outperform	AU$76.90M	8.15	13.84%	18.18%	-16.65%	-46.22%
COI	47 Neutral	AU$173.48M	―	-3.68%	―	―	72.09%
EWCLF	―	$109.24M	―	-84.72%	―	―	―
LPE	69 Neutral	AU$20.84M	6.01	30.50%	―	15.59%	―

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy to Announce FY25 Results and Climate Transition Plan

AGL Energy Limited announced the release of its full-year results for the period ending 30 June 2025, scheduled for 13 August 2025. The company will also host a briefing on its 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan on 21 August 2025. These events highlight AGL’s ongoing efforts to transition towards a sustainable energy future, reflecting its strategic focus on decarbonization and electrification. Stakeholders are encouraged to pre-register for these events to gain insights into AGL’s operational strategies and future plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Explores Potential Sale of Tilt Renewables Stake

AGL Energy Limited is investigating the potential sale of its 20% equity interest in Tilt Renewables as part of a routine review of its assets. While no discussions with potential buyers are currently underway, the company emphasizes that there is no certainty of a transaction occurring. AGL will continue to update the market in line with its disclosure obligations, reflecting its strategic focus on asset management and market transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$10.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces Change of Registry Address

AGL Energy Limited has announced a change in the registry address for its Sydney office of Computershare Investor Services Pty Limited, effective from June 10, 2025. This move is part of AGL’s ongoing efforts to streamline its operations and maintain efficient communication with its stakeholders. The change is not expected to impact the company’s operations significantly, as telephone numbers and postal addresses remain the same.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$10.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.