AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.77B
• Dividend Yield: 6.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.25
• Revenue Growth: 5.96%
• EPS Growth: -113.79%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,735
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 672,747,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,149,963
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,276,592
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.31
• 1Y Price Target: $10.72
• Price Target Upside: 25.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$8.50 ▼(-0.82% Downside)

AGL Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges. The most impactful factors are the company's declining financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While there are positive aspects such as strategic investments and a high dividend yield, these are overshadowed by the current financial difficulties and negative market momentum.

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGL Energy (AGL) is a prominent Australian energy company engaged in the production, distribution, and retailing of electricity and gas. AGL operates across multiple sectors including energy generation, gas production, and energy retailing. The company is recognized for its diverse energy portfolio that includes coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy power stations. AGL is also committed to transitioning towards sustainable energy solutions, investing in renewable energy projects and technologies.

How the Company Makes Money

AGL Energy makes money primarily through three key revenue streams: energy generation, energy retailing, and gas production. The company generates electricity from its diverse portfolio of power stations and sells it to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. In the retail segment, AGL earns revenue by providing electricity and gas services directly to consumers, offering a range of plans and solutions tailored to customer needs. Additionally, the company is involved in the production and sale of gas, contributing to its earnings. AGL's significant partnerships and investments in renewable energy projects also play a crucial role in its revenue model as it seeks to expand its footprint in the sustainable energy sector.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy faces a challenging financial landscape with declining revenues and profitability, as well as cash flow constraints. While the balance sheet shows a manageable level of debt, the negative return on equity and cash flow issues indicate potential risks. The company needs to address these challenges to improve its financial health and shareholder value.

Income Statement

AGL Energy's income statement reveals a challenging financial period. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate by 4.76% in the latest year, indicating a contraction in sales. The gross profit margin improved to 21.16%, showing some operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin turned negative at -0.71%, reflecting a net loss, which is a significant concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting reduced profitability and operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, indicating a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -2.02%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 29.98%, reflecting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

AGL Energy's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -137.03%, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.39B	13.84B	13.58B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B
Gross Profit	2.80B	2.93B	2.15B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B
EBITDA	1.10B	1.00B	2.06B	-700.00M	2.13B	-1.69B
Net Income	-98.00M	-98.00M	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.20B	16.20B	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	332.00M	332.00M	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M
Total Debt	3.31B	3.31B	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B
Total Liabilities	11.35B	11.35B	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B
Stockholders Equity	4.86B	4.86B	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-284.00M	-284.00M	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M
Operating Cash Flow	841.00M	841.00M	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.56B	-1.56B	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M
Financing Cash Flow	99.00M	99.00M	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.44, below the 50-day MA of 9.70, and below the 200-day MA of 10.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CUE	70 Outperform	AU$80.40M	12.78	10.27%	17.39%	10.44%	-55.67%
LPE	68 Neutral	AU$19.93M	6.01	30.50%	―	15.59%	―
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.80B	18.42	5.29%	3.53%	7.33%	12.21%
COI	47 Neutral	AU$155.54M	―	-3.68%	―	―	72.09%
AGL	46 Neutral	$5.77B	29.64	-1.75%	6.77%	5.96%	-113.79%
APAJF	―	$7.40B	114.95	3.23%	6.39%	―	―
EWCLF	―	$121.48M	―	-84.72%	―	―	―

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy to Announce FY25 Results and Climate Transition Plan

AGL Energy Limited announced the release of its full-year results for the period ending 30 June 2025, scheduled for 13 August 2025. The company will also host a briefing on its 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan on 21 August 2025. These events highlight AGL’s ongoing efforts to transition towards a sustainable energy future, reflecting its strategic focus on decarbonization and electrification. Stakeholders are encouraged to pre-register for these events to gain insights into AGL’s operational strategies and future plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Explores Potential Sale of Tilt Renewables Stake

AGL Energy Limited is investigating the potential sale of its 20% equity interest in Tilt Renewables as part of a routine review of its assets. While no discussions with potential buyers are currently underway, the company emphasizes that there is no certainty of a transaction occurring. AGL will continue to update the market in line with its disclosure obligations, reflecting its strategic focus on asset management and market transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$10.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces Change of Registry Address

AGL Energy Limited has announced a change in the registry address for its Sydney office of Computershare Investor Services Pty Limited, effective from June 10, 2025. This move is part of AGL’s ongoing efforts to streamline its operations and maintain efficient communication with its stakeholders. The change is not expected to impact the company’s operations significantly, as telephone numbers and postal addresses remain the same.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$10.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.