AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.94B
• Dividend Yield: 4.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: 15.96%
• EPS Growth: -40.06%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,735
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 672,747,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,277,012
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,590,263
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $11.72
• Price Target Upside: 14.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$11.50 ▲(12.30%Upside)

AGL Energy's solid cash flow performance and strategic growth initiatives contribute positively to its stock score. However, the high P/E ratio and challenges in revenue growth and fleet performance weigh down the overall score. Investment in grid-scale batteries and cost management efforts are promising, but vigilance in managing leverage and improving earnings is crucial.

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGL Energy Limited (AGL) is one of Australia's leading integrated energy companies, operating across the energy supply chain. It is involved in the generation, distribution, and retailing of electricity and gas for residential, commercial, and industrial customers. AGL's diverse portfolio includes renewable energy sources such as wind, hydroelectric, and solar, alongside traditional thermal power generation.

How the Company Makes Money

AGL Energy Limited generates revenue through multiple streams within the energy sector. Primarily, the company makes money by selling electricity and gas to customers across Australia. This includes residential consumers who purchase energy for household use, as well as commercial and industrial clients who require larger quantities of energy. AGL also earns income through its energy generation operations, where it produces electricity from a mix of renewable and non-renewable sources, which is then sold into the national energy market. Additionally, AGL provides energy-related services, such as energy efficiency and management solutions, which contribute to its revenue. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships and investments in energy infrastructure and technology.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy Limited exhibits solid financial health with robust cash flows and reasonable profitability margins. However, challenges such as declining revenue and moderate leverage need attention to sustain stability.

Income Statement

AGL Energy Limited shows a mixed performance on its income statement. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 15.8% and a net profit margin of 5.2% for 2024, indicating good profitability. However, revenue has been declining at a rate of -4.1% from the previous year, which is a concern. The EBIT margin of 7.3% and EBITDA margin of 15.1% suggest operational efficiency, but the negative revenue growth rate could impact future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5, indicating a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity is 13.1%, showing decent profitability from equity investments. However, the equity ratio of 34.7% suggests that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed through debt, which could pose risks if liabilities increase.

Cash Flow

AGL Energy demonstrates strong cash flow performance with a significant free cash flow growth rate of over 386.8%, driven by improved operating cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.2 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.0 indicate efficient cash conversion and solid cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
14.53B	13.58B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B	12.16B
	Gross Profit
4.03B	2.15B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B	2.26B
	EBIT
2.80B	992.00M	691.00M	1.74B	-883.00M	1.79B
	EBITDA
1.87B	2.06B	-700.00M	2.13B	-1.69B	2.33B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
232.00M	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B	1.01B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
253.00M	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M	357.00M
	Total Assets
15.17B	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B	14.61B
	Total Debt
2.81B	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B	3.11B
	Net Debt
2.56B	1.80B	2.73B	2.75B	3.10B	2.97B
	Total Liabilities
9.90B	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B	6.63B
	Stockholders Equity
5.27B	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B	7.97B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
767.00M	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M	1.40B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.90B	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B	2.11B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.41B	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M	-835.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-395.00M	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M	-1.25B

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.30, below the 50-day MA of 10.47, and below the 200-day MA of 10.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CUE	70 Outperform	AU$80.40M	8.52	13.84%	17.39%	-16.65%	-46.22%
LPE	70 Neutral	AU$21.86M	6.56	30.50%	―	15.59%	―
AGL	69 Neutral	$6.94B	29.90	4.36%	4.34%	15.96%	-40.06%
APA	68 Neutral	$10.83B	8.55	-1.44%	6.21%	8.15%	-103.96%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.54B	10.40	4.24%	4.63%	4.14%	-13.05%
COI	47 Neutral	AU$173.48M	―	-3.68%	―	―	72.09%
EWC	37 Underperform	$61.58M	―	-84.72%	―	-67.88%	-19190.91%

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy Explores Potential Sale of Tilt Renewables Stake

AGL Energy Limited is investigating the potential sale of its 20% equity interest in Tilt Renewables as part of a routine review of its assets. While no discussions with potential buyers are currently underway, the company emphasizes that there is no certainty of a transaction occurring. AGL will continue to update the market in line with its disclosure obligations, reflecting its strategic focus on asset management and market transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$10.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Announces Change of Registry Address

AGL Energy Limited has announced a change in the registry address for its Sydney office of Computershare Investor Services Pty Limited, effective from June 10, 2025. This move is part of AGL’s ongoing efforts to streamline its operations and maintain efficient communication with its stakeholders. The change is not expected to impact the company’s operations significantly, as telephone numbers and postal addresses remain the same.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$10.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.