AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.84B
• Dividend Yield: 5.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.62M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.28
• Revenue Growth: 15.96%
• EPS Growth: -40.06%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,735
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 672,747,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,626,683
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,617,135
• PEG Ratio: -0.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$11.68
• Price Target Upside: 14.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$11.50 ▲(13.19%Upside)

AGL Energy's solid cash flow performance and strategic growth initiatives contribute positively to its stock score. However, the high P/E ratio and challenges in revenue growth and fleet performance weigh down the overall score. Investment in grid-scale batteries and cost management efforts are promising, but vigilance in managing leverage and improving earnings is crucial.

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates through three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in generating electricity through coal and gas-fired generation, thermal, hydro, wind, batteries, and solar power plants; gas storage activities; and the retail sale of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, solar, and energy efficiency products and services. It operates electricity generation portfolio of 10,330 megawatts; the Newcastle gas storage facility in New South Wales; the Silver Springs underground gas storage facility in Queensland; natural gas production assets at Camden in New South Wales; and the North Queensland gas assets. The company serves 4.2 million customer accounts. AGL Energy Limited was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGL Energy Limited generates revenue through multiple streams within the energy sector. Primarily, the company makes money by selling electricity and gas to customers across Australia. This includes residential consumers who purchase energy for household use, as well as commercial and industrial clients who require larger quantities of energy. AGL also earns income through its energy generation operations, where it produces electricity from a mix of renewable and non-renewable sources, which is then sold into the national energy market. Additionally, AGL provides energy-related services, such as energy efficiency and management solutions, which contribute to its revenue. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships and investments in energy infrastructure and technology.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy Limited exhibits solid financial health with robust cash flows and reasonable profitability margins. Concerns include declining revenue and a moderate level of leverage, but strong cash flow generation and operational efficiency are positives.

Income Statement

AGL Energy Limited shows a mixed performance on its income statement. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 15.8% and a net profit margin of 5.2% for 2024, indicating good profitability. However, revenue has been declining at a rate of -4.1% from the previous year, which is a concern. The EBIT margin of 7.3% and EBITDA margin of 15.1% suggest operational efficiency, but the negative revenue growth rate could impact future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5, indicating a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity is 13.1%, showing decent profitability from equity investments. However, the equity ratio of 34.7% suggests that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed through debt, which could pose risks if liabilities increase.

Cash Flow

AGL Energy demonstrates strong cash flow performance with a significant free cash flow growth rate of over 386.8%, driven by improved operating cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.2 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.0 indicate efficient cash conversion and solid cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
14.53B	13.58B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B	12.16B
	Gross Profit
4.03B	2.15B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B	2.26B
	EBIT
2.80B	992.00M	691.00M	1.74B	-883.00M	1.79B
	EBITDA
1.87B	2.06B	-700.00M	2.13B	-1.69B	2.33B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
232.00M	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B	1.01B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
253.00M	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M	357.00M
	Total Assets
15.17B	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B	14.61B
	Total Debt
2.81B	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B	3.11B
	Net Debt
2.56B	1.80B	2.73B	2.75B	3.10B	2.97B
	Total Liabilities
9.90B	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B	6.63B
	Stockholders Equity
5.27B	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B	7.97B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
767.00M	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M	1.40B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.90B	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B	2.11B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.41B	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M	-835.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-395.00M	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M	-1.25B

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.47, below the 50-day MA of 10.51, and below the 200-day MA of 10.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGL	69 Neutral	AU$6.84B	29.47	4.36%	5.86%	15.96%	-40.06%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.60B	10.31	4.70%	4.39%	4.14%	-13.05%
APAJF		$7.02B	7.34	-1.44%	7.02%	―	―
CUE	74 Outperform	AU$73.40M	7.78	13.84%	19.05%	-16.65%	-46.22%
COI	47 Neutral	AU$167.50M	―	-3.68%	―	―	72.09%
EWCLF		$31.92M	―	-84.72%	―	―	―
LPE	71 Outperform	AU$23.23M	6.94	30.50%	―	15.59%	―

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy’s Half-Year Results Highlight Transition to Sustainable Energy

AGL Energy Limited released its Half-Year Results for the six months ending December 2024. The company continues to focus on providing simple and fair services as it supports the decarbonization and electrification of customer lifestyles. This announcement underscores AGL’s commitment to transitioning to a more sustainable energy future, with implications for its operational strategy and market positioning in the energy sector.

AGL Energy Reports 1H25 Results with Strategic Focus on Growth and Sustainability

AGL Energy Limited reported its financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2025, with a statutory profit after tax of $97 million, despite significant costs related to onerous contract provisions and retail transformation. The company’s underlying EBITDA and net profit saw slight declines compared to the previous year. AGL’s strategic focus includes expanding its battery portfolio and improving operational efficiency, as evidenced by its increasing generation capacity and successful customer market expansion. The company is on track to meet its full-year earnings guidance, with a strong emphasis on customer support amid market competition and inflationary pressures.

AGL Energy Declares New Dividend for Shareholders

AGL Energy Limited has announced a new dividend distribution of AUD 0.23 per ordinary fully paid share, pertaining to the financial period ending December 31, 2024. This announcement could influence investor sentiment and reflect the company’s financial health, as dividends often suggest confidence in ongoing profitability and operational stability.

AGL Energy Reports Revenue Growth Amidst Decline in Profits for H1 2024

AGL Energy Limited reported a 15.3% increase in revenue to $7,132 million for the half-year ended 31 December 2024. However, their statutory profit after tax plummeted by 83.2% to $97 million, while the underlying profit decreased by 6.5% to $373 million. The decline in statutory profit was significantly influenced by a $245 million loss from significant items and a $31 million loss from changes in financial instruments’ fair value. Despite these challenges, AGL continues to prioritize its transition towards a sustainable energy future, aligning with its Climate Transition Action Plan.