AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.47B
• Dividend Yield: 5.17%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 5.96%
• EPS Growth: -113.79%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,735
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 672,747,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,302,251
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,534,418
• PEG Ratio: 0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$11.41
• Price Target Upside: 18.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$14.25B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$10.00 ▲(4.06% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/23/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/23/25

AGL Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, profitability, and cash flow issues. While technical indicators and strategic investments in renewable assets provide some positive outlook, the negative P/E ratio and statutory losses are major concerns. The company's high dividend yield may appeal to some investors, but the financial health needs improvement for a stronger investment case.

Positive Factors

Integrated gentailer model

AGL's integrated generation-plus-retail model creates a durable competitive advantage: owning generation reduces retail procurement exposure, enabling internal hedging of customer load, smoothing margin volatility and supporting long-term cash generation as wholesale price cycles fluctuate.

Large renewable & battery pipeline

A materially expanded pipeline and committed grid-scale batteries provide structural flexibility and capacity to capture future market value. These flexible assets help offset thermal recontracting, support merchant optimisation and underpin medium-term EBITDA resilience as the market shifts to renewables.

Strong customer metrics & services growth

High customer satisfaction, an improving NPS and growth in bundled services point to durable retail strength. Better retention and more services per customer reduce churn, diversify revenue streams, and support steadier retail margins versus pure commodity sellers over the next 2–6 months.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Severely weakened cash conversion constrains financial flexibility: negative FCF growth and low operating-cash-to-income indicate limited internal funding for capex and batteries, increasing reliance on external financing and raising refinancing and execution risk over the medium term.

Negative profitability & statutory loss

A negative net margin and statutory loss reflect persistent profitability pressure. This limits the firm's ability to self-fund growth, weakens returns on equity and may force trade-offs between dividends, investment and balance-sheet repair, affecting durable shareholder value creation.

Thermal fleet availability risks

Reduced thermal availability raises structural reliability and margin risk: lower owned generation forces more market purchases or dispatch of higher-cost alternatives, amplifying exposure to price swings and complicating efforts to offset earnings impacts from coal and gas recontracting.

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates through three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in generating electricity through coal and gas-fired generation, thermal, hydro, wind, batteries, and solar power plants; gas storage activities; and the retail sale of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, solar, and energy efficiency products and services. It operates electricity generation portfolio of 10,330 megawatts; the Newcastle gas storage facility in New South Wales; the Silver Springs underground gas storage facility in Queensland; natural gas production assets at Camden in New South Wales; and the North Queensland gas assets. The company serves 4.2 million customer accounts. AGL Energy Limited was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGL makes money through various revenue streams, primarily by selling electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's retail division generates significant income from energy sales, supported by a diverse portfolio of power generation assets, which includes coal, gas, and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Additionally, AGL earns revenue from ancillary services related to energy management and grid stability. Key partnerships with technology providers and investments in renewable energy projects further enhance AGL's capabilities and market position, contributing to its overall earnings.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy faces a challenging financial landscape with declining revenues and profitability, as well as cash flow constraints. While the balance sheet shows a manageable level of debt, the negative return on equity and cash flow issues indicate potential risks. The company needs to address these challenges to improve its financial health and shareholder value.

Income Statement

AGL Energy's income statement reveals a challenging financial period. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate by 4.76% in the latest year, indicating a contraction in sales. The gross profit margin improved to 21.16%, showing some operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin turned negative at -0.71%, reflecting a net loss, which is a significant concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting reduced profitability and operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, indicating a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -2.02%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 29.98%, reflecting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

AGL Energy's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -137.03%, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.30B	13.84B	13.58B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B
Gross Profit	1.80B	2.93B	2.15B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B
EBITDA	1.56B	1.00B	2.06B	-700.00M	2.13B	-1.69B
Net Income	-101.00M	-98.00M	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.77B	16.20B	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	307.00M	332.00M	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M
Total Debt	5.48B	3.31B	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B
Total Liabilities	11.04B	11.35B	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B
Stockholders Equity	4.74B	4.86B	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-271.00M	-284.00M	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M
Operating Cash Flow	930.00M	841.00M	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-1.56B	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M
Financing Cash Flow	553.00M	99.00M	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.61
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.76, above the 50-day MA of 9.21, and above the 200-day MA of 9.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CUE	76 Outperform	AU$94.47M	3.94	10.27%	13.04%	10.44%	-55.67%
APA	66 Neutral	AU$12.17B	36.03	3.23%	6.26%	4.61%	-90.28%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
AGL	50 Neutral	AU$6.47B	16.66	-1.75%	5.17%	5.96%	-113.79%
COI	50 Neutral	AU$161.52M	-45.50	-4.74%	―	―	70.00%
LPE	50 Neutral	AU$18.26M	3.47	-38.32%	―	2.69%	-273.87%
EWC	43 Neutral	AU$130.96M	-2.52	―	―	-67.88%	-19190.91%

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.24 Per Share

AGL Energy Limited has declared an ordinary interim dividend of AUD 0.24 per fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 24 February 2026, with a record date of 25 February 2026 and payment scheduled for 26 March 2026, setting a clear timetable for shareholder returns.

The announcement provides income visibility for investors and underscores AGL Energy’s continued practice of returning cash to shareholders through regular distributions. The defined ex-date and record date also help market participants plan trading strategies around the dividend event and assess AGL’s yield profile in the context of the Australian energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Half-Year Profit Drops but Dividend Edges Higher

AGL Energy reported half-year 2025 revenue of A$7.04 billion, down 0.9% year on year, with statutory profit after tax falling 42% to A$94 million and underlying profit slipping 6.4% to A$353 million. Statutory and underlying earnings per share also declined, while net tangible asset backing per share eased to A$2.07.

Despite the softer earnings, AGL lifted its fully franked interim dividend to 24 cents per share, up from 23 cents, signalling continued capital returns to shareholders. Management highlighted that underlying profit strips out significant items and derivative fair value movements, aiming to provide a clearer view of operational performance in a volatile energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Sets Date and Webcast Details for Half-Year 2026 Results

AGL Energy will release its half-year results for the period ended 31 December 2025 to the Australian Securities Exchange on 11 February 2026, accompanied by a webcast and pre-registered conference call for investors and analysts, with a transcript and archive to be made available on its website. The scheduled results presentation underscores AGL’s ongoing engagement with capital markets and stakeholders as it navigates the energy transition, providing an upcoming checkpoint on operational and financial performance for one of Australia’s largest energy suppliers and private power generators.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$9.66 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Sets Out Indicative 2026 Financial and AGM Timetable

AGL Energy has released its indicative 2026 corporate calendar, setting out key financial and governance dates for investors and stakeholders, including half-year results on 11 February 2026 with associated dividend dates in February and March, and full-year results on 12 August 2026 with dividend dates in August and September. The company also scheduled the closing date for director nominations on 13 August 2026 and its Annual General Meeting for 1 October 2026, providing the market with visibility over its reporting and shareholder engagement timetable, although it noted that these dates may be subject to change via further market announcements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Hold with a A$9.66 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Cancels 31,004 Lapsed Performance Rights

AGL Energy Limited has notified the market of a change in its issued capital following the lapse of 31,004 performance rights (ASX code AGLAA). The rights have ceased because the conditions attached to them were not met or became incapable of being satisfied by 19 December 2025, slightly reducing the pool of potential equity-based compensation and signaling that specific performance hurdles for these securities were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.

AGL Energy Issues Performance Rights to Employees

AGL Energy Limited announced the issuance of 10,625 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not listed on the ASX until the restrictions are lifted, indicating a strategic move to incentivize employees and align their interests with company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AGL) stock is a Buy with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGL Energy stock, see the AU:AGL Stock Forecast page.