AGL Energy (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.26B
• Dividend Yield: 5.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 5.96%
• EPS Growth: -113.79%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,735
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 672,747,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,415,194
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,530,314
• PEG Ratio: 0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.31
• 1Y Price Target: $11.50
• Price Target Upside: 24.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.95B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$9.00 ▼(-2.81% Downside)

AGL Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, profitability, and cash flow issues. While technical indicators and strategic investments in renewable assets provide some positive outlook, the negative P/E ratio and statutory losses are major concerns. The company's high dividend yield may appeal to some investors, but the financial health needs improvement for a stronger investment case.

Positive Factors

Renewable Investments

Significant investments in renewable energy and battery projects enhance AGL's long-term growth prospects and align with global sustainability trends, positioning the company to capitalize on the transition to clean energy.

Customer Satisfaction

High customer satisfaction and improved NPS indicate strong customer loyalty and service quality, which can lead to sustained revenue growth and a competitive edge in the energy retail market.

Safety Improvements

Enhanced safety metrics reflect effective management practices and a commitment to employee welfare, which can improve operational efficiency and reduce potential liabilities over time.

Negative Factors

Statutory Loss

The statutory loss and increased net debt highlight financial strain, potentially limiting AGL's ability to invest in growth initiatives and impacting its long-term financial stability.

Thermal Fleet Challenges

Reduced thermal fleet availability due to outages can affect AGL's ability to meet energy demand and maintain profitability, posing a risk to operational reliability and earnings.

Consumer Margin Compression

Margin compression from pricing strategies can erode profitability, challenging AGL's ability to maintain competitive pricing while ensuring financial health in a volatile market.

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGL Energy Limited (AGL) is one of Australia's leading integrated energy companies, primarily engaged in the generation and retailing of electricity and gas. The company operates across multiple sectors, including renewable energy, conventional energy generation, and energy retailing, providing a range of products and services to both residential and commercial customers. AGL is committed to driving the transition to sustainable energy while ensuring reliable supply and competitive pricing.

How the Company Makes Money

AGL makes money through various revenue streams, primarily by selling electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's retail division generates significant income from energy sales, supported by a diverse portfolio of power generation assets, which includes coal, gas, and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Additionally, AGL earns revenue from ancillary services related to energy management and grid stability. Key partnerships with technology providers and investments in renewable energy projects further enhance AGL's capabilities and market position, contributing to its overall earnings.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy faces a challenging financial landscape with declining revenues and profitability, as well as cash flow constraints. While the balance sheet shows a manageable level of debt, the negative return on equity and cash flow issues indicate potential risks. The company needs to address these challenges to improve its financial health and shareholder value.

Income Statement

AGL Energy's income statement reveals a challenging financial period. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate by 4.76% in the latest year, indicating a contraction in sales. The gross profit margin improved to 21.16%, showing some operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin turned negative at -0.71%, reflecting a net loss, which is a significant concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting reduced profitability and operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, indicating a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -2.02%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 29.98%, reflecting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

AGL Energy's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -137.03%, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.39B	13.84B	13.58B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B
Gross Profit	2.80B	2.93B	2.15B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B
EBITDA	1.10B	1.00B	2.06B	-700.00M	2.13B	-1.69B
Net Income	-98.00M	-98.00M	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.20B	16.20B	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	332.00M	332.00M	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M
Total Debt	3.31B	3.31B	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B
Total Liabilities	11.35B	11.35B	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B
Stockholders Equity	4.86B	4.86B	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-284.00M	-284.00M	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M
Operating Cash Flow	841.00M	841.00M	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.56B	-1.56B	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M
Financing Cash Flow	99.00M	99.00M	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.23, above the 50-day MA of 9.10, and below the 200-day MA of 9.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AGL.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CUE	68 Neutral	AU$80.47M	12.78	10.27%	13.04%	10.44%	-55.67%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
APA	63 Neutral	AU$12.15B	120.94	3.23%	6.26%	4.61%	-90.28%
AGL	50 Neutral	$6.26B	―	-1.75%	5.18%	5.96%	-113.79%
COI	47 Neutral	AU$152.55M	-60.48	-4.74%	―	―	70.00%
LPE	45 Neutral	AU$19.93M	-5.70	-38.32%	―	2.69%	-273.87%
EWC	39 Underperform	AU$157.93M	―	―	―	-67.88%	-19190.91%

AGL Energy Corporate Events

AGL Energy Hosts Investor Tour at Bayswater Power Station

AGL Energy hosted a site tour at its Bayswater Power Station for institutional investors and analysts, featuring presentations by the executive team on electricity market dynamics, development pipeline, generation fleet performance, and capital allocation. This event underscores AGL’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, highlighting its strategic initiatives and operational capabilities in the energy sector.

AGL Energy Divests Stake in Tilt Renewables to Support Growth

AGL Energy has announced the divestment of a 19.9% equity interest in Tilt Renewables to existing shareholders and entities led by the Queensland Investment Corporation and the Future Fund for $750 million. This move is part of AGL’s strategy to recycle capital for future growth and invest in flexible, dispatchable capacity. The transaction is expected to result in a gain on sale and strengthens AGL’s strategic partnership with Tilt, advancing both companies’ renewable energy goals and supporting AGL’s decarbonisation strategy.

AGL Energy Issues Performance Rights to Employees

AGL Energy Limited announced the issuance of 1,056,444 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions until the restrictions end, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize its workforce and potentially enhance operational performance.

AGL Energy Announces Director’s Change in Interest

AGL Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Damien Craig Nicks acquiring 197,609 performance rights under the company’s Long-Term Incentive Plan. This allocation, approved at AGL’s 2025 Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests and may impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

AGL Energy Advances Kwinana Swift Gas 2 Project with Siemens Turbine Purchase

AGL Energy Limited has announced an agreement to purchase four new gas turbines from Siemens AB for $185 million as part of the Kwinana Swift Gas 2 project. This development is aligned with the Australian Energy Market Operator’s assignment of 176MW of Peak Certified Reserve Capacity to the project starting October 2027. The project aims to enhance AGL’s strategy to develop new firming capacity, supporting the transition to renewable energy and strengthening its portfolio in Western Australia. It also aligns with the Western Australian Government’s plan to retire state-owned coal-fired generation by 2030.

AGL Energy Appoints Betsy Donaghey as Non-Executive Director

AGL Energy Limited has announced the appointment of Elizabeth (Betsy) Donaghey as a non-executive director following her election at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. This appointment is part of AGL’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team as it continues to innovate and lead in the transition towards a sustainable energy future, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

AGL Energy Announces Director Departure

AGL Energy Limited announced the cessation of Kerry Elizabeth Schott as a director, effective October 3, 2025. Schott, who held 26,500 ordinary shares through her superannuation fund, had no direct holdings in the company. This change in directorship could impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially affecting stakeholders and market perception.

AGL Energy Announces AGM Results and New Auditor Appointment

AGL Energy’s 2025 Annual General Meeting concluded with all resolutions passed, including the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as the new external auditor. The meeting also saw the re-election of directors and the approval of the Climate Transition Action Plan, indicating AGL’s ongoing commitment to sustainable energy practices. These developments are expected to strengthen AGL’s operational capabilities and reinforce its position as a leader in the energy transition, benefiting stakeholders and supporting its strategic goals.

AGL Energy Holds 2025 Annual General Meeting, Emphasizing Transition to Sustainable Energy

AGL Energy Limited is conducting its 2025 Annual General Meeting, marking the first meeting with Miles George as Chair. The meeting is held as a hybrid event, allowing shareholders to participate in person or online, and includes opportunities for pre-submitted questions and proxy voting. This AGM reflects AGL’s ongoing commitment to shareholder engagement and transparency as it continues to innovate and transition towards a sustainable energy future.