Amplitude Energy (AU:AEL)
ASX:AEL
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Amplitude Energy
(Sydney:AEL)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
▼(-13.79% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and volatile/weak free cash flow, alongside a bearish technical trend with the price below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings call with upgraded production guidance and strong recent operating metrics, plus a relatively low P/E supporting valuation.
Positive Factors
Upgraded production guidance
Management raised FY‑26 production guidance after sustained Orbost outperformance and record short‑term throughput. Persistently higher physical volumes improve revenue visibility, enable fixed‑cost absorption, and support durable margin improvement from operational execution rather than transient market moves.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability & volatile FCF
Negative net margins and severely negative FCF growth signal persistent profitability and cash conversion challenges. This limits reinvestment capacity, heightens reliance on external financing for growth projects, and raises execution risk for multi‑year developments if commodity or cost trends deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Upgraded production guidance
Management raised FY‑26 production guidance after sustained Orbost outperformance and record short‑term throughput. Persistently higher physical volumes improve revenue visibility, enable fixed‑cost absorption, and support durable margin improvement from operational execution rather than transient market moves.
Read all positive factors
Amplitude Energy (AEL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$523.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)628.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth11.72%
EPS Growth-58.40%
CountryAU
Employees120
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Energy
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding299,880,830
10 Day Avg. Volume654,782
30 Day Avg. Volume628,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio34.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.61Price Target Upside50.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$299.49M
Amplitude Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Amplitude Energy Limited engages in exploration, development, and production of natural gas and low-cost oil in Australia. Cooper Energy Limited and changed its name to Amplitude Energy Limited in November 2024. The company was incorporated in 200...
How the Company Makes Money
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Amplitude Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record production, revenue and underlying EBITDAX, upgraded FY'26 production guidance, reserve uplifts at Sole, robust cash position and ECSP on schedule and budget. Key challenges include an exploration miss at Elanora (seismic interpretation work underway), near-term maintenance-driven cost increases, regulatory/approval costs for ECSP and some pending JV decisions. On balance the positives (record metrics, upgraded guidance, reserve increases, strong safety and liquidity and clear ECSP progress with imminent Isabella results) outweigh the negatives, though exploration and short-term cost risks merit monitoring.Positive Updates
Record Financial and Operational Results
Sales revenue of $141.5M, underlying EBITDAX of $100.3M (up 9% vs H1 FY'25), adjusted cash from operations of $85.6M (up 5% vs H1 FY'25) and underlying NPAT of $25.7M (vs $7.8M prior period, ~+229%).
Negative Updates
Elanora Exploration Failure
Elanora well was disappointing and did not encounter commercial gas in the targeted Waarre A sands; management is conducting post-mortem seismic and petrophysical studies to explain a seismic amplitude false positive and assess implications for other prospects.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial and Operational Results
Sales revenue of $141.5M, underlying EBITDAX of $100.3M (up 9% vs H1 FY'25), adjusted cash from operations of $85.6M (up 5% vs H1 FY'25) and underlying NPAT of $25.7M (vs $7.8M prior period, ~+229%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Amplitude upgraded FY‑26 group production guidance to 73–77 TJ/day (26.6–28.1 PJ), up from 69–74 TJ/day, driven by Orbost outperformance (new daily record 71 TJ and 14‑day average 70.9 TJ) and with FY‑26 guidance for production expenses, other cost of sales, cash expenses and capital expenditure unchanged; management expects contracted gas prices to rise ~20% from 1 Jan 2026 versus ~>$9/GJ in 2025, is on track to push Orbost sustainably above the prior 68 TJ nameplate and to drive Orbost unit costs below $2/GJ, and flagged ECSP targets a >110 TJ/day production plateau for the first four years (Athena capacity up to 150 TJ/day) that could supply ~800,000 Victorian homes from 2028, with Isabella drilling results and an FID imminent. H1 metrics further underpin guidance (underlying EBITDAX $100.3m, adjusted operating cash flow $85.6m), the continuous‑improvement program targets ~A$10m of cash benefits by year‑end, the $480m RBL is available as CapEx steps up, and net debt was ~$34m at 31 Dec.Amplitude Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 275.83M | 268.06M | 219.05M | 196.94M | 203.85M | 131.64M |
| Gross Profit | 90.88M | 77.83M | 89.77M | 11.28M | 38.54M | 13.99M |
| EBITDA | 158.33M | 142.60M | -48.81M | -35.52M | -4.58M | -17.35M |
| Net Income | -22.68M | -41.33M | -114.11M | -68.46M | -10.56M | -30.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 978.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.30M | 62.19M | 14.33M | 77.13M | 247.01M | 91.31M |
| Total Debt | 118.83M | 300.12M | 254.92M | 154.60M | 168.86M | 230.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 583.67M | 799.17M | 805.54M | 847.50M | 701.55M | 652.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 548.33M | 376.52M | 417.65M | 496.87M | 498.43M | 325.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.11M | 15.57M | -166.24M | -212.80M | 36.90M | -26.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 119.85M | 89.31M | -99.76M | 62.76M | 57.78M | 8.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.32M | -75.27M | -66.48M | -274.92M | -20.44M | -34.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -46.96M | 33.75M | 105.54M | 41.17M | 116.86M | -12.48M |
Amplitude Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
1.74
Price Trends
2.31
Negative
2.59
Negative
2.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Negative
33.97
Neutral
24.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.94, below the 50-day MA of 2.31, and below the 200-day MA of 2.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AEL.
Amplitude Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | AU$390.62M | 23.18 | 17.50% | 14.63% | -4.78% | -42.11% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
52 Neutral | AU$523.29M | 7.53 | -4.91% | ― | 11.72% | -58.40% | |
52 Neutral | AU$414.29M | -12.82 | -7.28% | ― | ― | -162.50% | |
49 Neutral | AU$196.80M | -21.28 | -0.67% | ― | ― | -149.12% | |
49 Neutral | AU$430.72M | -6.11 | -14.19% | ― | ― | 25.55% | |
48 Neutral | AU$395.93M | -7.29 | -46.22% | ― | -0.51% | -756.45% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:AEL
Amplitude Energy
1.75
-0.26
-12.92%
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51.90%
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Strike Energy Limited
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Amplitude Energy Corporate Events
State Street Entities Exit Substantial Holder Position in Amplitude Energy
Apr 27, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its subsidiaries have disclosed that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Amplitude Energy Limited as of 23 April 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interests below the s...
Amplitude Energy lifts quarterly revenue on higher gas prices and expanded plant capacity
Apr 19, 2026
Amplitude Energy reported strong third-quarter performance for the period to 31 March 2026, posting group production of 6.86 PJe and record quarterly revenue of $74.1 million, driven by an average realised gas price of $10.74/GJ and record spot ga...
Amplitude Energy Director Gary Gray Increases Indirect Shareholding
Apr 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of director Gary Gray, reflecting routine adjustments in board-level ownership. Bond Street Custodians holds Gray’s shares, and the notice underscores ongoing transparency ...
Amplitude Energy Secures Foundation Gas Deal With AGL for East Coast Project
Apr 16, 2026
Amplitude Energy has signed a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement with AGL Energy for the supply of 20 petajoules of gas from its East Coast Supply Project over four years, with deliveries targeted to start in the second half of 2028. The contr...
Amplitude Energy Director Increases Indirect Shareholding After Record Correction
Apr 2, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited disclosed a change in director Gary Gray’s indirect shareholding, as required under Australian listing rules. The update clarifies that Bond Street Custodians Limited holds the shares on Gray’s behalf and corre...
Amplitude Energy Director Increases Stake via On‑Market Share Purchase
Apr 1, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Gillian Louise Larkins, who increased her direct holding in the company through an on‑market trade. Larkins acquired 9,346 ordinary shares on 30 March 2026 at a ...
Amplitude Energy Updates Capital Structure After Performance Rights Lapse
Mar 31, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has notified the market of a change in its issued capital following the lapse of 3,095 performance rights. The securities ceased on March 26, 2026, because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or could no l...
Amplitude Energy Director Increases Indirect Shareholding
Mar 30, 2026
Amplitude Energy has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of director Ian Richard Davies, lodged via an Appendix 3Y notice to the ASX. Through Charmian Investments Pty Ltd as trustee for the Charmian Trust, Davies acquired 17,391 ordina...
Amplitude Energy Deems Isabella Gas Find Non-Commercial but Keeps East Coast Project on Track
Mar 24, 2026
Amplitude Energy has reported that flow testing of the Isabella sidetrack well in the offshore Otway Basin has concluded the field is not commercially viable at its current location. The ST-1 well, drilled from the earlier Elanora-1 bore, will now...
State Street Group Drops Below Substantial Holding Threshold in Amplitude Energy
Mar 19, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries, including State Street Bank and Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors entities, have notified Amplitude Energy that they have ceased to be substantial holders in t...
Amplitude Energy Outlines Metrics and Risk Framework in Investor Briefing
Mar 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy has issued an investor conference document outlining its operations, reserves reporting standards and use of non‑IFRS performance metrics, while stressing that these figures are derived from reviewed but unaudited financial ...
Amplitude Energy Advances Isabella Gas Prospect with Planned Flow Test
Mar 8, 2026
Amplitude Energy has reported encouraging preliminary drilling and formation evaluation results from the Isabella prospect in the offshore Otway Basin, where it operates and holds a 50% interest alongside O.G. Energy. The well is a sidetrack from ...
Institutional Investor Exits Substantial Holding in Amplitude Energy
Mar 6, 2026
Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Limited, acting as trustee of the Retail Employee Superannuation Trust, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Amplitude Energy Ltd, according to a notice lodged under section 671B of the Corporations Act...
Amplitude Energy Secures Foundation Gas Sales Deal With EnergyAustralia
Mar 1, 2026
Amplitude Energy and joint venture partner O.G. Energy have signed a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement with EnergyAustralia for gas from the East Coast Supply Project. The deal covers 30 petajoules of gas over four years at a fixed price inde...
Amplitude Energy Hits Gas-Bearing Reservoir at Isabella Sidetrack
Mar 1, 2026
Amplitude Energy has reported that a sidetrack well into the Isabella prospect in the offshore Otway Basin has intersected a gas-bearing Waarre C sandstone reservoir. Preliminary drilling and logging data show elevated gas and resistivity readings...
Amplitude Energy outlines FY26 half-year metrics and risk framework
Feb 24, 2026
Amplitude Energy has released its FY26 half-year results update, outlining key financial and operating metrics using non-IFRS measures such as EBITDAX, EBITDA, EBIT, underlying profit and free cash flow. The company also reaffirmed its approach to...
Amplitude Energy’s Elanora Well Disappoints as Focus Shifts to Isabella Prospect
Feb 9, 2026
Amplitude Energy has reported that its Elanora‑1 exploration well in the offshore Otway Basin reached total depth safely and ahead of schedule, but logging data showed no elevated gas readings in the primary Waarre A reservoir, which is inte...
Amplitude Energy Issues 142,785 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Feb 3, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has issued 142,785 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with the new securities recorded as being issued on 30 January 2026. The performance rights are subject to transfer restrictions and will ...
Amplitude Energy Appoints New Director With No Current Equity Interests
Feb 3, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has appointed Matthew Vernon Ridolfi as a director effective 2 February 2026. According to the initial director’s interest notice filed with the ASX, Ridolfi holds no relevant interests in the company’s securit...
Vanguard Group Falls Below Substantial Holder Threshold in Amplitude Energy
Feb 2, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has disclosed that Vanguard Group, including its controlled entities such as Vanguard Investments Australia, has reduced its holding in the company to just under the substantial shareholder threshold. Vanguard now controls...
Amplitude Energy Adds Veteran Oil and Gas Executive Matthew Ridolfi to Board
Feb 1, 2026
Amplitude Energy has appointed veteran oil and gas executive Matthew Ridolfi as a non-executive director, adding more than 35 years of upstream experience across technical, operational and corporate leadership roles at BHP Petroleum and Woodside E...
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Amplitude Energy
Jan 30, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has lodged a notice confirming it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Amplitude Energy Limited, after a series of transactions in late January involving fully paid ordinary shares in the company executed by...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.