Amplitude Energy (AU:AEL)
ASX:AEL
Want to see AU:AEL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Amplitude Energy
(Sydney:AEL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
â–Ľ(-13.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and volatile/weak free cash flow, alongside a bearish technical trend with the price below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings call with upgraded production guidance and strong recent operating metrics, plus a relatively low P/E supporting valuation.
Positive Factors
Upgraded production guidance & record operations
Management raised FY‑26 production guidance driven by sustained Orbost outperformance and record plant uptime. Higher and more reliable production capacity is a durable revenue driver that supports cash flow scalability, reduces per‑unit fixed costs and underpins multi‑quarter operational momentum.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability and volatile free cash flow
Negative net margins and highly volatile free cash flow constrain the company’s ability to self‑fund development and return capital. Over 2–6 months this elevates dependency on external financing for CapEx, increases refinancing risk and pressures ability to sustain investment during commodity cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Upgraded production guidance & record operations
Management raised FY‑26 production guidance driven by sustained Orbost outperformance and record plant uptime. Higher and more reliable production capacity is a durable revenue driver that supports cash flow scalability, reduces per‑unit fixed costs and underpins multi‑quarter operational momentum.
Read all positive factors
Amplitude Energy (AEL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$431.83M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)628.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth11.72%
EPS Growth-58.40%
CountryAU
Employees120
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Energy
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding299,880,830
10 Day Avg. Volume654,782
30 Day Avg. Volume628,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio34.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.58Price Target Upside48.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$297.29M
Amplitude Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Amplitude Energy Limited primarily concentrates on the exploration, development, and production of natural gas and cost-effective oil resources across Australia. Formerly known as Cooper Energy Limited, the company officially adopted its current n...
How the Company Makes Money
AEL makes money primarily by selling produced hydrocarbons—natural gas and associated liquids/condensate—from its operated and non-operated interests in offshore Bass Basin fields. Revenue is generated when production is delivered under gas sales ...
Amplitude Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record production, revenue and underlying EBITDAX, upgraded FY'26 production guidance, reserve uplifts at Sole, robust cash position and ECSP on schedule and budget. Key challenges include an exploration miss at Elanora (seismic interpretation work underway), near-term maintenance-driven cost increases, regulatory/approval costs for ECSP and some pending JV decisions. On balance the positives (record metrics, upgraded guidance, reserve increases, strong safety and liquidity and clear ECSP progress with imminent Isabella results) outweigh the negatives, though exploration and short-term cost risks merit monitoring.Positive Updates
Record Financial and Operational Results
Sales revenue of $141.5M, underlying EBITDAX of $100.3M (up 9% vs H1 FY'25), adjusted cash from operations of $85.6M (up 5% vs H1 FY'25) and underlying NPAT of $25.7M (vs $7.8M prior period, ~+229%).
Negative Updates
Elanora Exploration Failure
Elanora well was disappointing and did not encounter commercial gas in the targeted Waarre A sands; management is conducting post-mortem seismic and petrophysical studies to explain a seismic amplitude false positive and assess implications for other prospects.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial and Operational Results
Sales revenue of $141.5M, underlying EBITDAX of $100.3M (up 9% vs H1 FY'25), adjusted cash from operations of $85.6M (up 5% vs H1 FY'25) and underlying NPAT of $25.7M (vs $7.8M prior period, ~+229%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Amplitude upgraded FY‑26 group production guidance to 73–77 TJ/day (26.6–28.1 PJ), up from 69–74 TJ/day, driven by Orbost outperformance (new daily record 71 TJ and 14‑day average 70.9 TJ) and with FY‑26 guidance for production expenses, other cost of sales, cash expenses and capital expenditure unchanged; management expects contracted gas prices to rise ~20% from 1 Jan 2026 versus ~>$9/GJ in 2025, is on track to push Orbost sustainably above the prior 68 TJ nameplate and to drive Orbost unit costs below $2/GJ, and flagged ECSP targets a >110 TJ/day production plateau for the first four years (Athena capacity up to 150 TJ/day) that could supply ~800,000 Victorian homes from 2028, with Isabella drilling results and an FID imminent. H1 metrics further underpin guidance (underlying EBITDAX $100.3m, adjusted operating cash flow $85.6m), the continuous‑improvement program targets ~A$10m of cash benefits by year‑end, the $480m RBL is available as CapEx steps up, and net debt was ~$34m at 31 Dec.Amplitude Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 275.83M | 268.06M | 219.05M | 196.94M | 203.85M | 131.64M |
| Gross Profit | 90.88M | 77.83M | 89.77M | 11.28M | 38.54M | 13.99M |
| EBITDA | 158.33M | 142.60M | -48.81M | -35.52M | -4.58M | -17.35M |
| Net Income | -22.68M | -41.33M | -114.11M | -68.46M | -10.56M | -30.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 978.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.30M | 62.19M | 14.33M | 77.13M | 247.01M | 91.31M |
| Total Debt | 118.83M | 300.12M | 254.92M | 154.60M | 168.86M | 230.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 583.67M | 799.17M | 805.54M | 847.50M | 701.55M | 652.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 548.33M | 376.52M | 417.65M | 496.87M | 498.43M | 325.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.11M | 15.57M | -166.24M | -212.80M | 36.90M | -26.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 119.85M | 89.31M | -99.76M | 62.76M | 57.78M | 8.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.32M | -75.27M | -66.48M | -274.92M | -20.44M | -34.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -46.96M | 33.75M | 105.54M | 41.17M | 116.86M | -12.48M |
Amplitude Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
1.74
Price Trends
1.67
Negative
2.09
Negative
2.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
30.04
Neutral
12.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.62, above the 50-day MA of 1.67, and below the 200-day MA of 2.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AEL.
Amplitude Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | AU$349.93M | 29.43 | 14.04% | 14.63% | -4.78% | -42.11% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
53 Neutral | AU$196.80M | -103.72 | -0.67% | ― | ― | -149.12% | |
52 Neutral | AU$431.83M | -17.22 | -4.91% | ― | 11.72% | -58.40% | |
51 Neutral | AU$395.93M | -2.32 | -46.22% | ― | -0.51% | -756.45% | |
49 Neutral | AU$391.73M | -13.24 | -14.19% | ― | ― | 25.55% | |
46 Neutral | AU$322.79M | -40.35 | -7.28% | ― | ― | -162.50% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:AEL
Amplitude Energy
1.46
-0.71
-32.59%
AU:CVN
Carnarvon Energy Limited
0.11
-0.02
-16.00%
AU:BTL
Empire Energy Group Limited
0.26
0.07
36.84%
AU:HZN
Horizon Oil Limited
0.21
0.04
25.75%
AU:STX
Strike Energy Limited
0.11
-0.05
-32.26%
AU:OMA
Omega Oil & Gas Limited
0.63
0.33
110.00%
Amplitude Energy Corporate Events
Amplitude Energy Director Discloses New Indirect Shareholding
Jun 10, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has disclosed a change in director Matthew Vernon Ridolfi’s relevant interest in its securities, in line with ASX listing requirements. Ridolfi has gained an indirect interest through Jasper Generations Pty Ltd, whic...
State Street Ends Substantial Holding in Amplitude Energy
Jun 5, 2026
State Street Global Advisors, through several subsidiaries, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Amplitude Energy Limited. The change reflects a reduction in State Street’s relevant interest and voting po...
Amplitude Energy buys 50% of Artisan gas field to boost Otway gas supply
May 24, 2026
Amplitude Energy has agreed to acquire a 50% interest and operatorship in the Artisan gas field in the Offshore Otway Basin from Beach Energy, while partner O.G. Energy will lift its stake to 50%, aligning ownership. The transaction, funded from e...
Amplitude Energy Secures Production Licence for Annie Gas Field
May 7, 2026
Amplitude Energy has secured production licence VIC/L37 for the Annie gas field, a discovered resource first identified in 2019 and slated to commence production in 2028. All gas from Annie is expected to be directed to Australia’s east coas...
Amplitude Energy Details Reserves, Metrics and Risk Caveats in Investor Presentation
May 4, 2026
Amplitude Energy has released an investor presentation outlining its current operations, reserves and resource estimates as at 30 June 2025, calculated under the 2018 Petroleum Resources Management System and verified by an internal qualified rese...
State Street Entities Exit Substantial Holder Position in Amplitude Energy
Apr 27, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its subsidiaries have disclosed that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Amplitude Energy Limited as of 23 April 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interests below the s...
Amplitude Energy lifts quarterly revenue on higher gas prices and expanded plant capacity
Apr 19, 2026
Amplitude Energy reported strong third-quarter performance for the period to 31 March 2026, posting group production of 6.86 PJe and record quarterly revenue of $74.1 million, driven by an average realised gas price of $10.74/GJ and record spot ga...
Amplitude Energy Director Gary Gray Increases Indirect Shareholding
Apr 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of director Gary Gray, reflecting routine adjustments in board-level ownership. Bond Street Custodians holds Gray’s shares, and the notice underscores ongoing transparency ...
Amplitude Energy Secures Foundation Gas Deal With AGL for East Coast Project
Apr 16, 2026
Amplitude Energy has signed a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement with AGL Energy for the supply of 20 petajoules of gas from its East Coast Supply Project over four years, with deliveries targeted to start in the second half of 2028. The contr...
Amplitude Energy Director Increases Indirect Shareholding After Record Correction
Apr 2, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited disclosed a change in director Gary Gray’s indirect shareholding, as required under Australian listing rules. The update clarifies that Bond Street Custodians Limited holds the shares on Gray’s behalf and corre...
Amplitude Energy Director Increases Stake via On‑Market Share Purchase
Apr 1, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Gillian Louise Larkins, who increased her direct holding in the company through an on‑market trade. Larkins acquired 9,346 ordinary shares on 30 March 2026 at a ...
Amplitude Energy Updates Capital Structure After Performance Rights Lapse
Mar 31, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has notified the market of a change in its issued capital following the lapse of 3,095 performance rights. The securities ceased on March 26, 2026, because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or could no l...
Amplitude Energy Director Increases Indirect Shareholding
Mar 30, 2026
Amplitude Energy has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of director Ian Richard Davies, lodged via an Appendix 3Y notice to the ASX. Through Charmian Investments Pty Ltd as trustee for the Charmian Trust, Davies acquired 17,391 ordina...
Amplitude Energy Deems Isabella Gas Find Non-Commercial but Keeps East Coast Project on Track
Mar 24, 2026
Amplitude Energy has reported that flow testing of the Isabella sidetrack well in the offshore Otway Basin has concluded the field is not commercially viable at its current location. The ST-1 well, drilled from the earlier Elanora-1 bore, will now...
State Street Group Drops Below Substantial Holding Threshold in Amplitude Energy
Mar 19, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries, including State Street Bank and Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors entities, have notified Amplitude Energy that they have ceased to be substantial holders in t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.