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Amplitude Energy
(Sydney:AEL)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
▼(-13.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and volatile/weak free cash flow, alongside a bearish technical trend with the price below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings call with upgraded production guidance and strong recent operating metrics, plus a relatively low P/E supporting valuation.
Positive Factors
Upgraded production guidance
Management raised FY‑26 guidance to 73–77 TJ/day driven by Orbost outperformance. Sustained higher production materially increases revenue capacity and operational scale, lowers unit operating costs, and makes future capex returns easier to realize, supporting durable cash generation.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability
Negative net margins and a negative ROE indicate the business currently struggles to convert revenue into shareholder returns. Persistently weak profitability constrains retained earnings, limits reinvestment from internal cashflows and increases reliance on external financing for growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Upgraded production guidance
Management raised FY‑26 guidance to 73–77 TJ/day driven by Orbost outperformance. Sustained higher production materially increases revenue capacity and operational scale, lowers unit operating costs, and makes future capex returns easier to realize, supporting durable cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Amplitude Energy (AEL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$386.85M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)628.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth11.72%
EPS Growth-58.40%
CountryAU
Employees140
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding299,880,830
10 Day Avg. Volume654,782
30 Day Avg. Volume628,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio34.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.52Price Target Upside44.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$314.48M
Amplitude Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Amplitude Energy Limited engages in exploration, development, and production of natural gas and low-cost oil in Australia. It operates through Southeast Australia and Cooper Basin segments. The company is involved in the exploration, evaluation, o...
How the Company Makes Money
AEL makes money primarily by selling produced hydrocarbons—natural gas and associated liquids/condensate—from its operated and non-operated interests in offshore Bass Basin fields. Revenue is generated when production is delivered under gas sales ...
Amplitude Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record production, revenue and underlying EBITDAX, upgraded FY'26 production guidance, reserve uplifts at Sole, robust cash position and ECSP on schedule and budget. Key challenges include an exploration miss at Elanora (seismic interpretation work underway), near-term maintenance-driven cost increases, regulatory/approval costs for ECSP and some pending JV decisions. On balance the positives (record metrics, upgraded guidance, reserve increases, strong safety and liquidity and clear ECSP progress with imminent Isabella results) outweigh the negatives, though exploration and short-term cost risks merit monitoring.Positive Updates
Record Financial and Operational Results
Sales revenue of $141.5M, underlying EBITDAX of $100.3M (up 9% vs H1 FY'25), adjusted cash from operations of $85.6M (up 5% vs H1 FY'25) and underlying NPAT of $25.7M (vs $7.8M prior period, ~+229%).
Negative Updates
Elanora Exploration Failure
Elanora well was disappointing and did not encounter commercial gas in the targeted Waarre A sands; management is conducting post-mortem seismic and petrophysical studies to explain a seismic amplitude false positive and assess implications for other prospects.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial and Operational Results
Sales revenue of $141.5M, underlying EBITDAX of $100.3M (up 9% vs H1 FY'25), adjusted cash from operations of $85.6M (up 5% vs H1 FY'25) and underlying NPAT of $25.7M (vs $7.8M prior period, ~+229%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Amplitude upgraded FY‑26 group production guidance to 73–77 TJ/day (26.6–28.1 PJ), up from 69–74 TJ/day, driven by Orbost outperformance (new daily record 71 TJ and 14‑day average 70.9 TJ) and with FY‑26 guidance for production expenses, other cost of sales, cash expenses and capital expenditure unchanged; management expects contracted gas prices to rise ~20% from 1 Jan 2026 versus ~>$9/GJ in 2025, is on track to push Orbost sustainably above the prior 68 TJ nameplate and to drive Orbost unit costs below $2/GJ, and flagged ECSP targets a >110 TJ/day production plateau for the first four years (Athena capacity up to 150 TJ/day) that could supply ~800,000 Victorian homes from 2028, with Isabella drilling results and an FID imminent. H1 metrics further underpin guidance (underlying EBITDAX $100.3m, adjusted operating cash flow $85.6m), the continuous‑improvement program targets ~A$10m of cash benefits by year‑end, the $480m RBL is available as CapEx steps up, and net debt was ~$34m at 31 Dec.Amplitude Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 275.83M | 268.06M | 219.05M | 196.94M | 203.85M | 131.64M |
| Gross Profit | 90.88M | 77.83M | 89.77M | 11.28M | 38.54M | 13.99M |
| EBITDA | 158.33M | 142.60M | -48.81M | -35.52M | -4.58M | -17.35M |
| Net Income | -22.68M | -41.33M | -114.11M | -68.46M | -10.56M | -30.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 978.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.30M | 62.19M | 14.33M | 77.13M | 247.01M | 91.31M |
| Total Debt | 118.83M | 300.12M | 254.92M | 154.60M | 168.86M | 230.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 583.67M | 799.17M | 805.54M | 847.50M | 701.55M | 652.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 548.33M | 376.52M | 417.65M | 496.87M | 498.43M | 325.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.11M | 15.57M | -166.24M | -212.80M | 36.90M | -26.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 119.85M | 89.31M | -99.76M | 62.76M | 57.78M | 8.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.32M | -75.27M | -66.48M | -274.92M | -20.44M | -34.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -46.96M | 33.75M | 105.54M | 41.17M | 116.86M | -12.48M |
Amplitude Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
1.74
Price Trends
1.54
Negative
1.84
Negative
2.30
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
43.61
Neutral
53.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, above the 50-day MA of 1.54, and below the 200-day MA of 2.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AEL.
Amplitude Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | AU$372.64M | 28.63 | 14.04% | 14.63% | -4.78% | -42.11% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
53 Neutral | AU$196.80M | -98.78 | -0.67% | ― | ― | -149.12% | |
52 Neutral | AU$386.85M | -16.14 | -4.91% | ― | 11.72% | -58.40% | |
46 Neutral | AU$362.30M | -39.64 | -7.28% | ― | ― | -162.50% | |
44 Neutral | AU$377.94M | -1.88 | -46.22% | ― | -0.51% | -756.45% | |
42 Neutral | AU$399.28M | -17.97 | -14.19% | ― | ― | 25.55% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:AEL
Amplitude Energy
1.36
-1.14
-45.60%
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0.03
16.67%
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Amplitude Energy Corporate Events
Amplitude Energy Flags Lapse of Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 4,371 performance rights, identified as AELAI, following their lapse on June 25, 2026. The rights expired because the conditions attached to them were not met or could no longer ...
Amplitude Energy Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 6,235 performance rights, which lapsed after specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of June 19, 2026. The move slightly reduces the company&#...
Amplitude Energy Director Discloses New Indirect Shareholding
Jun 10, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has disclosed a change in director Matthew Vernon Ridolfi’s relevant interest in its securities, in line with ASX listing requirements. Ridolfi has gained an indirect interest through Jasper Generations Pty Ltd, whic...
State Street Ends Substantial Holding in Amplitude Energy
Jun 5, 2026
State Street Global Advisors, through several subsidiaries, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Amplitude Energy Limited. The change reflects a reduction in State Street’s relevant interest and voting po...
Amplitude Energy buys 50% of Artisan gas field to boost Otway gas supply
May 24, 2026
Amplitude Energy has agreed to acquire a 50% interest and operatorship in the Artisan gas field in the Offshore Otway Basin from Beach Energy, while partner O.G. Energy will lift its stake to 50%, aligning ownership. The transaction, funded from e...
Amplitude Energy Secures Production Licence for Annie Gas Field
May 7, 2026
Amplitude Energy has secured production licence VIC/L37 for the Annie gas field, a discovered resource first identified in 2019 and slated to commence production in 2028. All gas from Annie is expected to be directed to Australia’s east coas...
Amplitude Energy Details Reserves, Metrics and Risk Caveats in Investor Presentation
May 4, 2026
Amplitude Energy has released an investor presentation outlining its current operations, reserves and resource estimates as at 30 June 2025, calculated under the 2018 Petroleum Resources Management System and verified by an internal qualified rese...
State Street Entities Exit Substantial Holder Position in Amplitude Energy
Apr 27, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its subsidiaries have disclosed that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Amplitude Energy Limited as of 23 April 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interests below the s...
Amplitude Energy lifts quarterly revenue on higher gas prices and expanded plant capacity
Apr 19, 2026
Amplitude Energy reported strong third-quarter performance for the period to 31 March 2026, posting group production of 6.86 PJe and record quarterly revenue of $74.1 million, driven by an average realised gas price of $10.74/GJ and record spot ga...
Amplitude Energy Director Gary Gray Increases Indirect Shareholding
Apr 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of director Gary Gray, reflecting routine adjustments in board-level ownership. Bond Street Custodians holds Gray’s shares, and the notice underscores ongoing transparency ...
Amplitude Energy Secures Foundation Gas Deal With AGL for East Coast Project
Apr 16, 2026
Amplitude Energy has signed a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement with AGL Energy for the supply of 20 petajoules of gas from its East Coast Supply Project over four years, with deliveries targeted to start in the second half of 2028. The contr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.