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Actinogen Medical Limited (AU:ACW)
ASX:ACW

Actinogen Medical (ACW) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ACW

Actinogen Medical

(Sydney:ACW)

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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.05
▼(-6.00% Downside)
Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, ongoing losses, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technical indicators are more neutral/steady and provide partial support, but valuation remains unattractive due to loss-making results (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Lead clinical candidate & targeted mechanism
Actinogen’s lead candidate Xanamem targets the cortisol system to improve cognition in Alzheimer’s and age-related decline. A clearly defined novel mechanism addressing a significant unmet need provides potential for durable clinical differentiation and partner interest if trials progress.
Low financial leverage
A low debt-to-equity ratio and relatively healthy equity ratio reduce bankruptcy and interest-rate risk, giving management flexibility to fund clinical programs. For a development-stage biotech, limited leverage improves resilience across multi-quarter trial timelines and funding cycles.
High gross margin profile
Reported 100% gross margin implies low direct cost of goods for the company’s product model (licensing/biologic R&D). If commercial or licensing revenues materialize, this cost structure supports durable operating leverage and strong eventual profitability per dollar of revenue.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline
A 39% revenue decline signals weakening near-term funding or partner income, reducing operational runway and increasing reliance on new financing or milestones. For a clinical-stage biotech, sustained revenue weakness constrains program progress and strategic optionality over coming quarters.
Negative operating & free cash flow
Negative operating and free cash flow with worsening FCF growth (-13.01%) indicate the company is burning cash to fund R&D. This structural cash deficit increases probability of dilutive financings or partnership dependency, which can delay programs and dilute long-term returns.
Persistent losses; negative margins and ROE
Deeply negative profitability metrics and negative ROE show the company is not generating returns for shareholders. Sustained losses limit reinvestment capacity, heighten financing needs, and pressure management to secure partners or capital—structural risks for multi-quarter development timelines.

Actinogen Medical (ACW) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Actinogen Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionActinogen Medical Limited, a biotechnology company, develops therapies for neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases associated with dysregulated brain cortisol in Australia. It is developing Xanamem, an inhibitor of the 11ß-HSD1 enzyme, which is in Phase 2 clinical trials that achieves target engagement in the central nervous system, Alzheimer's disease, depression with cognitive impairment, and anxiety, sleep, and behavioral problems in fragile X syndrome. The company was formerly known as Actinogen Limited and changed its name to Actinogen Medical Limited in November 2015. Actinogen Medical Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyActinogen Medical generates revenue primarily through funding from clinical trials, partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, and potential licensing agreements for its drug candidates. The company may also receive milestone payments and royalties from collaborators upon reaching specific developmental or commercial milestones. Additionally, any successful outcomes from clinical trials can lead to increased investment and interest from investors, boosting the company's financial standing. Actinogen's focus on innovative therapies in a growing market for neurodegenerative diseases positions it to capitalize on future revenue opportunities as its products advance towards commercialization.

Actinogen Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Actinogen Medical faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. The income statement shows a negative growth rate and deeply negative net profit margin. The balance sheet indicates low leverage but negative returns on equity. Cash flow issues are evident with negative operating and free cash flows.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Actinogen Medical's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability. The company has experienced a substantial decline in revenue, with a negative growth rate of -39.16% in the most recent year. Gross profit margin remains strong at 100%, but the net profit margin is deeply negative, indicating ongoing losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The company needs to address its revenue decline and improve cost management to enhance profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting limited leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating returns for its shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively healthy, but the company needs to improve its profitability to enhance shareholder value.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates significant challenges. The operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, with a declining free cash flow growth rate of -13.01%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. The company must focus on improving cash generation to support its operations and future growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.49M5.49M9.93M4.89M3.64M1.98M
Gross Profit5.29M5.49M9.93M4.48M3.24M1.60M
EBITDA-15.01M-15.01M-12.84M-15.22M-12.72M-5.35M
Net Income-14.73M-14.73M-13.04M-10.75M-9.50M-3.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets24.48M24.48M21.31M15.21M23.31M18.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments16.50M16.50M9.45M8.46M16.37M13.42M
Total Debt3.26M3.26M319.07K86.93K165.27K236.44K
Total Liabilities6.15M6.15M1.62M1.80M1.57M920.32K
Stockholders Equity18.34M18.34M19.70M13.41M21.74M17.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-7.59M-7.59M-16.96M-8.73M-9.52M-1.73M
Operating Cash Flow-7.56M-7.56M-16.95M-8.70M-9.52M-1.72M
Investing Cash Flow-38.02K-38.02K-8.16K-36.60K-2.94K-6.19K
Financing Cash Flow14.65M14.65M17.95M824.62K12.42M10.11M

Actinogen Medical Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.05
Price Trends
50DMA
0.06
Negative
100DMA
0.04
Positive
200DMA
0.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
38.38
Neutral
STOCH
12.06
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ACW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:ACW.

Actinogen Medical Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
AU$92.44M13.4827.24%2.81%0.65%-9.90%
55
Neutral
AU$85.06M-1.35-100.67%1114.27%85.66%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
50
Neutral
AU$89.38M-9.01-49.72%10.78%
47
Neutral
AU$159.59M-9.80-75.99%10.91%
44
Neutral
AU$105.70M-12.65-47.98%700.00%26.88%
41
Neutral
AU$87.00M-5.26-42.68%63.46%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ACW
Actinogen Medical
0.05
0.02
84.62%
AU:ATH
Alterity Therapeutics
0.01
>-0.01
-44.44%
AU:PTX
Prescient Therapeutics Limited
0.08
0.03
64.00%
AU:RAD
Radiopharm Theranostics Limited
0.02
>-0.01
-7.69%
AU:EZZ
EZZ Life Science Holdings Ltd.
1.98
-0.17
-7.88%
AU:ALA
Arovella Therapeutics Limited
0.09
-0.10
-53.51%

Actinogen Medical Corporate Events

Actinogen Medical Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Jan 15, 2026

Actinogen Medical Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 43,392 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The modest increase in quoted securities slightly expands the company’s share capital base, reflecting ongoing issuance under existing equity arrangements but without indicating any major change in its operational strategy or capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Courts Global Neuroscience Investors Ahead of Key Xanamem Alzheimer’s Trial Readouts
Jan 11, 2026

Actinogen Medical has dispatched four senior executives to San Francisco to meet investors, analysts and potential partners at the Sachs Neuroscience Innovation Forum and events around the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, aiming to raise the company’s profile among key neuroscience-focused stakeholders. The meetings centre on the company’s Xanamem Alzheimer’s program, highlighting multiple supportive clinical trials and the advanced XanaMIA Phase 2b/3 study, which has completed recruitment and is on track to deliver an interim analysis in late January 2026 and final topline results in November 2026, a timeline that could be pivotal for Actinogen’s clinical and commercial positioning if the data are positive.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Seeks ASX Quotation for Nearly 4.7 Million New Shares
Jan 8, 2026

Actinogen Medical has applied to the ASX for quotation of 4,695,960 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 8 January 2026 under the code ACW. The additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, modestly expand the company’s listed share base and may provide incremental funding flexibility and liquidity for shareholders as Actinogen progresses its development activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Buy with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Jan 2, 2026

Actinogen Medical Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 82,093 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 2 January 2026 under the ticker ACW. The modest increase in quoted securities reflects the conversion or exercise of existing options or other convertible instruments, slightly expanding the company’s share base and providing incremental capital or aligning incentives for stakeholders, without indicating any major strategic shift in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Buy with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Seeks ASX Quotation for 4 Million New Shares
Dec 23, 2025

Actinogen Medical Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 4,000,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, which are scheduled to be issued and commence trading on 23 December 2025 under the ticker ACW. The additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, modestly expand the company’s share base and may provide incremental capital and liquidity, with implications for existing shareholders through potential dilution and for the company’s financial flexibility as it advances its business activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Buy with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Dec 19, 2025

Actinogen Medical Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 218,449 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be listed under its existing ticker ACW. The additional securities, issued on 19 December 2025 following the exercise or conversion of existing instruments, will modestly expand the company’s free float and may incrementally enhance liquidity for shareholders without indicating any broader strategic shift in operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Completes Enrollment for Pivotal Alzheimer’s Trial, Results Expected in Late 2026
Dec 17, 2025

Actinogen Medical has completed participant enrollment for its XanaMIA phase 2b/3 clinical trial, aimed at evaluating its novel Alzheimer’s treatment, Xanamem. The trial enrolled 246 participants, exceeding the initial target, which enhances its statistical power. Data will be assessed through an interim analysis in early 2026, with topline results anticipated by November 2026. This milestone underscores the potential of Xanamem as a groundbreaking, once-daily oral therapy designed to control brain cortisol, with implications for Alzheimer’s patients and the broader neurotherapeutic market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Expands Market Presence with New Securities Quotation
Dec 12, 2025

Actinogen Medical Limited has announced the quotation of 101,001 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 12, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its market presence and provide more liquidity for its shareholders, potentially impacting its operations and positioning within the biotechnology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Dec 5, 2025

Actinogen Medical Limited has announced the quotation of 251,050 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 5, 2025. This move marks a significant step for the company, potentially enhancing its market presence and providing additional capital for its operations, which could positively impact its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Expands Capital with New ASX Quotation
Dec 1, 2025

Actinogen Medical Limited has announced the quotation of 1,078,721 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 1, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its capital structure and support ongoing research and development activities, potentially strengthening its position in the biotechnology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ACW) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Actinogen Medical stock, see the AU:ACW Stock Forecast page.

Actinogen Medical Expands Capital with New Securities Issuance
Nov 19, 2025

Actinogen Medical Limited has announced the issuance of 2,769,826 fully paid ordinary securities, which are set to be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code ACW. This move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its capital structure and support its ongoing research and development activities, potentially strengthening its position in the biotechnology sector and providing new opportunities for stakeholders.

Actinogen Medical Advances Alzheimer’s and Depression Trials with Positive AGM Outcomes
Nov 19, 2025

Actinogen Medical announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions, including the approval of increased placement capacity, were carried. The company is advancing its clinical trials for Xanamem, a promising treatment for Alzheimer’s and depression, with significant progress in ongoing trials. The XanaMIA Phase 2b/3 trial for Alzheimer’s is set to be fully enrolled by the end of 2025, with initial results expected in early 2026. Actinogen’s efforts in controlling brain cortisol levels through Xanamem have shown promising safety and efficacy in clinical trials, reinforcing its potential impact on the treatment of neurological diseases.

Actinogen Medical Showcases Xanamem at Healthcare Conference
Nov 19, 2025

Actinogen Medical announced that its CEO and CFO will present at the Bell Potter Healthcare Conference 2025, highlighting their lead compound, Xanamem, which targets brain cortisol to slow Alzheimer’s progression and treat depression. The company is conducting multiple clinical trials, including the XanaMIA Phase 2b/3 trial for Alzheimer’s and the XanaCIDD Phase 2a trial for depression, with promising results showing significant benefits on depressive symptoms and cognitive function. These developments could strengthen Actinogen’s position in the biotechnology industry and offer new hope for patients with debilitating neurological conditions.

Actinogen Medical Advances Alzheimer’s and Depression Trials with Promising Results
Nov 19, 2025

Actinogen Medical held its 2025 Annual General Meeting in Sydney, where the Chair and CEO presented updates on their clinical trials and strategic direction. The company is advancing its XanaMIA Phase 2b/3 trial for Alzheimer’s disease, with full enrollment expected by the end of 2025 and initial results in early 2026. The XanaCIDD trial for depression showed significant benefits, reinforcing the potential of Xanamem in treating cognitive and depressive symptoms. These developments position Actinogen as a promising player in the biotechnology industry, with potential implications for stakeholders in terms of future treatment options and market growth.

Actinogen Medical’s Alzheimer’s Trial Receives Positive Continuation Recommendation
Nov 12, 2025

Actinogen Medical announced that the independent Data Monitoring Committee has recommended the continuation of the XanaMIA phase 2b/3 trial for Alzheimer’s without any amendments after reviewing safety data from 153 participants. This decision marks a positive step for the company’s development of Xanamem, a promising therapy targeting elevated cortisol levels in the brain, which is linked to Alzheimer’s progression and depressive symptoms. The trial is expected to be fully enrolled by the end of 2025, with interim results anticipated in early 2026, potentially impacting the company’s position in the neurological treatment market.

Actinogen Medical Showcases Alzheimer’s Treatment Progress at BIO-Europe 2025
Nov 2, 2025

Actinogen Medical announced its participation at the BIO-Europe 2025 conference in Vienna, where its executives will engage with international investors and potential biopharma partners to discuss their late-stage clinical trial program for Alzheimer’s disease. The company is conducting a pivotal phase 2b/3 trial for Alzheimer’s, with interim results expected early next year and final results in late 2026. This conference provides an opportunity to explore regional collaborations to accelerate the development of Xanamem, which has shown promising results in controlling elevated cortisol levels in the brain, a factor linked to Alzheimer’s progression and depressive symptoms.

Actinogen Medical Advances Xanamem Trials for Alzheimer’s and Depression
Oct 27, 2025

Actinogen Medical announced a live webinar to discuss recent progress and upcoming milestones, highlighting the development of their lead compound, Xanamem, for Alzheimer’s Disease and Depression. The company is conducting clinical trials in Australia and the US, with promising results from previous studies showing significant benefits in depression symptoms and cognitive function. The ongoing trials aim to further validate Xanamem’s efficacy and safety, potentially impacting the treatment landscape for these debilitating conditions.

Actinogen Medical to Host Webinar on Progress and Future Milestones
Oct 23, 2025

Actinogen Medical announced a live webinar scheduled for October 28, 2025, where CEO Dr. Steven Gourlay and other leaders will discuss the company’s recent progress and upcoming milestones. The company is advancing its clinical trials for Xanamem, a promising therapy for Alzheimer’s Disease and Depression, with significant developments expected in 2026. This announcement highlights Actinogen’s commitment to addressing unmet medical needs in neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases, potentially impacting its market position and offering hope for stakeholders seeking new treatments.

Actinogen Medical Advances Alzheimer’s Trial and Strengthens Market Position
Oct 22, 2025

Actinogen Medical has announced accelerated enrolment in its XanaMIA phase 2b/3 Alzheimer’s disease trial, with interim analysis scheduled for January 2026 and final results expected in mid-Q4 2026. The company also reported a successful meeting with the FDA, paving the way for a streamlined path to marketing approval and enhancing its potential for partnerships. Additionally, Actinogen has launched an Investor Hub to engage shareholders and successfully completed a pharmacokinetic trial confirming the efficacy of Xanamem’s commercial formulation. These developments signify significant progress in Actinogen’s clinical and commercial strategies, potentially strengthening its position in the Alzheimer’s treatment market.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 10, 2026