Accelerant Holdings Class A (ARX)
NYSE:ARX
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Accelerant Holdings Class A
(NYSE:ARX)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(20.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance quality due to the sharp 2025 profitability/ROE deterioration despite strong revenue growth and positive cash flow. Offsetting this, technicals show solid positive momentum, and the latest earnings call was constructive with upbeat 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and a meaningful buyback authorization, though execution and mix/retention-related volatility remain notable.
Positive Factors
Rapid premium scale and growing third‑party mix
Sustained multi-year premium scale and a clear shift toward third‑party capital signal a durable, capital-light growth path. As third‑party mix rises, fee revenue and platform leverage should expand, improving returns on equity and making growth less dependent on underwriting capital over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 profitability deterioration
The abrupt collapse in 2025 profitability creates meaningful earnings volatility and undermines short‑ to medium‑term ROE. Even with revenue growth, such swings complicate forecasting, reduce confidence in GAAP earnings durability, and can pressure strategic choices around pricing and capital allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid premium scale and growing third‑party mix
Sustained multi-year premium scale and a clear shift toward third‑party capital signal a durable, capital-light growth path. As third‑party mix rises, fee revenue and platform leverage should expand, improving returns on equity and making growth less dependent on underwriting capital over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Accelerant Holdings Class A (ARX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees451
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.91
Shares Outstanding116,757,860
10 Day Avg. Volume1,296,554
30 Day Avg. Volume1,224,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)4.46
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio7.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.94Price Target Upside13.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.03B
Accelerant Holdings Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operate a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating pla...
How the Company Makes Money
Accelerant primarily makes money by earning fees tied to the insurance premium volume and underwriting performance of the specialty insurance programs that are placed and managed through its platform. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) com...
Accelerant Holdings Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed broad, measurable operational and financial momentum: strong premium and revenue growth, expanding adjusted EBITDA and margins, accelerating third‑party capital adoption, healthy member additions and robust cash generation. The company emphasized a durable AI/data competitive advantage and provided constructive 2026 guidance while taking steps to return capital (share buyback). The main headwinds mentioned were the near‑term comparability effects of terminating a large low‑margin member, low net retention in the underwriting book (by design as the business shifts to fee‑based capital partners), some one‑time gains and Mission‑related cash outlays, and the normal execution risk and long sales cycles associated with scaling third‑party insurer relationships. Overall, positives materially outweighed the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Exchange Written Premium Growth
Q4 exchange written premium of $1.1B, up 24% year-over-year (32% YoY excluding one large, low-margin terminated member). Full year 2025 exchange written premium of $4.2B, up 35% YoY (41% YoY excluding the terminated member).
Negative Updates
Termination of Large Low‑Margin Member Affects Comparability
Management terminated a large, low‑margin member (approx. USD 50M of premium per quarter), which reduced reported growth in Q4 (24% YoY vs 32% YoY excluding that member) and tempers near‑term growth comparisons (noted impact on Q1 guidance and early 2026 quarters).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Exchange Written Premium Growth
Q4 exchange written premium of $1.1B, up 24% year-over-year (32% YoY excluding one large, low-margin terminated member). Full year 2025 exchange written premium of $4.2B, up 35% YoY (41% YoY excluding the terminated member).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Accelerant's guidance for 2026 calls for Q1 exchange written premium of $1.07–$1.13 billion, Q1 third‑party direct written premium of $450–$470 million and Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $64–$66 million; for the full year it expects at least $5.1 billion of exchange written premium, at least $2.2 billion of third‑party direct written premium (with $2.1 billion already under contract and another $100 million about to start), and adjusted EBITDA of at least $275 million. Management reiterated a net retention target near 10% (Q4 was 9% and near‑term retention is expected to be sub‑10%), expects a greater proportion of third‑party premium in Q1 and FY26 on the path to a medium‑term ~2/3 third‑party mix (Q4 third‑party was 40%), and said it does not expect to need material additional capital in the Underwriting segment in 2026 (Q4 underwriting equity was $633 million). Other relevant metrics disclosed: Q4 exchange written premium was $1.1 billion (24% YoY, 32% ex one terminated member), Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $71 million, 2025 generated $157 million of unrestricted unlevered free cash flow with ~87% adjusted free cash flow conversion, and the Board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $200 million through December 2028.Accelerant Holdings Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 879.50M | 597.70M | 329.70M | 213.10M | 103.20M |
| Gross Profit | 595.20M | 349.00M | 199.50M | 78.60M | 63.50M |
| EBITDA | -1.22B | 91.00M | -14.30M | -74.30M | -15.50M |
| Net Income | -1.35B | 27.20M | -48.80M | -91.70M | -21.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.26B | 6.09B | 3.74B | 2.20B | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.47B | 1.29B | 783.40M | 509.00M | 340.10M |
| Total Debt | 121.30M | 121.40M | 120.30M | 100.50M | 49.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.54B | 5.67B | 3.45B | 1.85B | 899.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 697.70M | 408.70M | 310.50M | 354.50M | 257.90M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 403.70M | 751.10M | 257.30M | 39.00M | 98.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 445.10M | 785.50M | 289.90M | 65.70M | 112.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -175.70M | -380.10M | -11.70M | -147.50M | -132.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 207.90M | 110.30M | 10.30M | 254.70M | 233.70M |
Accelerant Holdings Class A Risk Analysis
Accelerant Holdings Class A disclosed 97 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accelerant Holdings Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accelerant Holdings Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $155.61M | 0.95 | 13.52% | ― | 11.14% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $2.93B | -2.30 | -246.37% | ― | ― | ― | |
60 Neutral | $16.47M | 2.52 | 4.56% | ― | 19.30% | -17.56% | |
55 Neutral | $63.39M | 3.50 | 4.33% | ― | 4.06% | 69.78% | |
42 Neutral | $32.02M | -0.21 | -135.15% | ― | -54.71% | -2544.97% |
* Financial Sector Average
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Accelerant Holdings Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Accelerant Holdings Reports Strong Results and CFO Transition
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Accelerant reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with exchange written premium up 24% year over year in the quarter to $1.09 billion and 35% for the full year to $4.19 billion, alongside a 52% rise in adjust...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Accelerant Holdings Sets Key Dates for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Accelerant Holdings plans to hold its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders on May 12, 2026, with March 13, 2026 set as the record date for determining which shareholders are entitled to vote. The company will provide further logistical deta...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Accelerant Holdings Reports Strong Preliminary 2025 Growth Results
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Accelerant Holdings released preliminary unaudited results indicating strong growth for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, though the figures remain subject to adjustment through the closing and audit p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.