Accelerant Holdings Class A (ARX)
NYSE:ARX
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Accelerant Holdings Class A
(NYSE:ARX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(27.75% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held back mainly by weak/volatile GAAP profitability in 2025 (negative net margin and ROE) and a loss-impacted valuation signal (negative P/E). Offsetting factors include improving technical momentum and a supportive latest earnings call with raised 2026 guidance and strong adjusted EBITDA/fee-based growth, alongside generally positive cash generation and conservative leverage.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scale-Up
Sustained multi-year top-line growth shows durable market adoption of Accelerant’s exchange model and expanding premium flow. Larger premium scale strengthens network effects, raises fee revenue potential and spreads fixed costs, supporting durable fee-based earnings over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
GAAP Profitability Volatility
Large GAAP swings and a deeply negative 2025 margin indicate earnings volatility that can undermine long-term profitability credibility. Accounting items (share-based comp) and episodic losses can distort returns, complicating capital allocation and investor trust across multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Scale-Up
Sustained multi-year top-line growth shows durable market adoption of Accelerant’s exchange model and expanding premium flow. Larger premium scale strengthens network effects, raises fee revenue potential and spreads fixed costs, supporting durable fee-based earnings over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Accelerant Holdings Class A (ARX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees451
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.98
Shares Outstanding112,799,194
10 Day Avg. Volume1,673,331
30 Day Avg. Volume1,395,955
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)4.46
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio7.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.31Price Target Upside22.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.09B
Accelerant Holdings Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operate a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating pla...
How the Company Makes Money
Accelerant makes money primarily by generating fee-based revenue tied to insurance premium volume and participation on business written through its platform. Key revenue streams include (1) commission and fee income earned for facilitating the pla...
Accelerant Holdings Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call outlines broad operational and financial momentum: strong top‑line growth (revenue +54%), substantial adjusted EBITDA expansion, rapid third‑party premium adoption, expanding proprietary data and demonstrable AI productivity gains, plus upgraded guidance and an attractive capital position. Headline negatives are episodic: a small GAAP loss driven by share‑based compensation, Q1 operating cash usage due to timing, elevated eliminations impacting near‑term consolidated EBITDA, modest underwriting margins, and remaining concentration risk with Hadron (albeit reduced). On balance, the positives are materially stronger and more strategic than the transitory or manageable negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Total revenue up 54% YoY to $273M; operating revenue up 57% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA was $66M in Q1 versus $39M a year ago (≈+69% YoY). Adjusted non-GAAP EPS $0.17 vs GAAP loss per diluted share of $0.02.
Negative Updates
GAAP Profitability and Share‑Based Compensation
GAAP pretax income $2M and GAAP net after‑tax loss $4M in Q1. A material portion of the GAAP vs adjusted difference was share‑based compensation (~$8M this quarter) driven by accelerated awards for the CFO transition.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Total revenue up 54% YoY to $273M; operating revenue up 57% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA was $66M in Q1 versus $39M a year ago (≈+69% YoY). Adjusted non-GAAP EPS $0.17 vs GAAP loss per diluted share of $0.02.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 2026 exchange written premium of $1.27–$1.32 billion, third‑party direct written premium of $580–$620 million and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $60–$66 million (noting about $20 million of eliminations in Q2 and that segmental adjusted EBITDA is expected to be materially higher), and raised full‑year 2026 targets to at least $5.2 billion of exchange written premium, at least $2.3 billion of third‑party direct written premium and at least $285 million of adjusted EBITDA (including fee‑based/non‑underwriting adjusted EBITDA of at least $276 million); they also reiterated a mid‑8% take rate for the remainder of the year, Exchange Services adjusted EBITDA margins near ~70%, an expected underwriting gross loss ratio in the low‑50s for 2026, trailing‑12‑month underwriting net retention around 10%, a plan for Hadron to mix down to ~35–40% of third‑party premium (below one‑third in Q4), and a medium‑term goal for third‑party insurers to represent ~2/3 of total exchange premium.Accelerant Holdings Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 887.10M | 879.50M | 597.70M | 329.70M | 213.10M | 103.20M |
| Gross Profit | 583.30M | 595.20M | 349.00M | 199.50M | 78.60M | 63.50M |
| EBITDA | -1.24B | -1.22B | 91.00M | -14.30M | -74.30M | -15.50M |
| Net Income | -1.37B | -1.35B | 27.20M | -48.80M | -91.70M | -21.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.60B | 8.26B | 6.09B | 3.74B | 2.20B | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.22B | 2.51B | 1.29B | 783.40M | 509.00M | 340.10M |
| Total Debt | 120.70M | 121.30M | 121.40M | 120.30M | 100.50M | 49.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.88B | 7.54B | 5.67B | 3.45B | 1.85B | 899.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 692.60M | 697.70M | 408.70M | 310.50M | 354.50M | 257.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 326.90M | 403.70M | 751.10M | 257.30M | 39.00M | 98.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 331.90M | 445.10M | 785.50M | 289.90M | 65.70M | 112.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -297.60M | -173.60M | -380.10M | -11.70M | -147.50M | -132.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 191.00M | 205.80M | 110.30M | 10.30M | 254.70M | 233.70M |
Accelerant Holdings Class A Risk Analysis
Accelerant Holdings Class A disclosed 97 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accelerant Holdings Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accelerant Holdings Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $176.35M | 0.73 | 15.28% | ― | 10.29% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $17.69M | 2.52 | 4.56% | ― | 19.30% | -17.56% | |
59 Neutral | $50.15M | -2.11 | 3.57% | ― | -4.28% | -1.93% | |
58 Neutral | $3.76B | -142.58 | -217.05% | ― | ― | ― | |
40 Underperform | $19.18M | -0.16 | -135.15% | ― | -81.69% | -9884.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
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Accelerant Holdings Class A
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Accelerant Holdings Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Accelerant Holdings Reports Strong Q1 2026 Fee-Based Growth
Positive
May 13, 2026
Accelerant Holdings, a data-driven specialty insurance risk exchange, reported first quarter 2026 results on May 13, 2026, highlighting its capital-light, fee-based model and global focus on MGAs and risk capital partners. The platform handled $4....
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Accelerant Holdings Shareholders Approve Directors at 2026 AGM
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Accelerant Holdings held its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders on May 12, 2026, with 222,160,004 common shares outstanding as of the March 13, 2026 record date, split between 116,757,858 Class A and 105,402,146 Class B shares. The dual-c...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Accelerant Holdings Reports Strong Results and CFO Transition
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Accelerant reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with exchange written premium up 24% year over year in the quarter to $1.09 billion and 35% for the full year to $4.19 billion, alongside a 52% rise in adjust...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Accelerant Holdings Sets Key Dates for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Accelerant Holdings plans to hold its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders on May 12, 2026, with March 13, 2026 set as the record date for determining which shareholders are entitled to vote. The company will provide further logistical deta...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Accelerant Holdings Reports Strong Preliminary 2025 Growth Results
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Accelerant Holdings released preliminary unaudited results indicating strong growth for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, though the figures remain subject to adjustment through the closing and audit p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.