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Accelerant Holdings Class A
(NYSE:ARX)
Select Model
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(4.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial statement profitability (large recent losses and reduced cash-flow strength), partially offset by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings call outlook with raised guidance and high-margin fee-based expansion. Valuation remains a constraint due to loss-making earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong premium and revenue growth
Accelerant is expanding both its revenue base and exchange volumes, while higher third-party participation supports broader platform adoption. Sustained premium growth can increase recurring fee generation and improve operating leverage as the marketplace scales.
Negative Factors
Deep GAAP losses and weak returns
Healthy gross economics have not translated into sustainable bottom-line profitability. Continued operating and net losses could constrain capital generation, reduce earnings quality, and increase sensitivity to expense growth, claims volatility, or unusual charges.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong premium and revenue growth
Accelerant is expanding both its revenue base and exchange volumes, while higher third-party participation supports broader platform adoption. Sustained premium growth can increase recurring fee generation and improve operating leverage as the marketplace scales.
Read all positive factors
Accelerant Holdings Class A (ARX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees862
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.67
Shares Outstanding118,548,676
10 Day Avg. Volume1,185,810
30 Day Avg. Volume1,935,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)4.46
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio7.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.30Price Target Upside3.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13B
Accelerant Holdings Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. The company operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Under...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Accelerant Holdings Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call outlines broad operational and financial momentum: strong top‑line growth (revenue +54%), substantial adjusted EBITDA expansion, rapid third‑party premium adoption, expanding proprietary data and demonstrable AI productivity gains, plus upgraded guidance and an attractive capital position. Headline negatives are episodic: a small GAAP loss driven by share‑based compensation, Q1 operating cash usage due to timing, elevated eliminations impacting near‑term consolidated EBITDA, modest underwriting margins, and remaining concentration risk with Hadron (albeit reduced). On balance, the positives are materially stronger and more strategic than the transitory or manageable negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Total revenue up 54% YoY to $273M; operating revenue up 57% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA was $66M in Q1 versus $39M a year ago (≈+69% YoY). Adjusted non-GAAP EPS $0.17 vs GAAP loss per diluted share of $0.02.
Negative Updates
GAAP Profitability and Share‑Based Compensation
GAAP pretax income $2M and GAAP net after‑tax loss $4M in Q1. A material portion of the GAAP vs adjusted difference was share‑based compensation (~$8M this quarter) driven by accelerated awards for the CFO transition.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Total revenue up 54% YoY to $273M; operating revenue up 57% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA was $66M in Q1 versus $39M a year ago (≈+69% YoY). Adjusted non-GAAP EPS $0.17 vs GAAP loss per diluted share of $0.02.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 2026 exchange written premium of $1.27–$1.32 billion, third‑party direct written premium of $580–$620 million and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $60–$66 million (noting about $20 million of eliminations in Q2 and that segmental adjusted EBITDA is expected to be materially higher), and raised full‑year 2026 targets to at least $5.2 billion of exchange written premium, at least $2.3 billion of third‑party direct written premium and at least $285 million of adjusted EBITDA (including fee‑based/non‑underwriting adjusted EBITDA of at least $276 million); they also reiterated a mid‑8% take rate for the remainder of the year, Exchange Services adjusted EBITDA margins near ~70%, an expected underwriting gross loss ratio in the low‑50s for 2026, trailing‑12‑month underwriting net retention around 10%, a plan for Hadron to mix down to ~35–40% of third‑party premium (below one‑third in Q4), and a medium‑term goal for third‑party insurers to represent ~2/3 of total exchange premium.Accelerant Holdings Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.04B | 879.50M | 597.70M | 329.70M | 213.10M | 103.20M |
| Gross Profit | 699.00M | 595.20M | 349.00M | 199.50M | 78.60M | 63.50M |
| EBITDA | -1.21B | -1.22B | 91.00M | -14.30M | -74.30M | -15.50M |
| Net Income | -1.30B | -1.35B | 27.20M | -48.80M | -91.70M | -21.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.94B | 8.26B | 6.09B | 3.74B | 2.20B | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.74B | 2.51B | 1.29B | 783.40M | 509.00M | 340.10M |
| Total Debt | 120.10M | 121.30M | 121.40M | 120.30M | 100.50M | 49.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.20B | 7.54B | 5.67B | 3.45B | 1.85B | 899.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 717.40M | 697.70M | 408.70M | 310.50M | 354.50M | 257.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 51.50M | 403.70M | 751.10M | 257.30M | 39.00M | 98.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.80M | 445.10M | 785.50M | 289.90M | 65.70M | 112.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 60.60M | -173.60M | -380.10M | -11.70M | -147.50M | -132.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 114.10M | 205.80M | 110.30M | 10.30M | 254.70M | 233.70M |
Accelerant Holdings Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
19.67
Price Trends
13.56
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Negative
63.86
Neutral
85.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.37, above the 50-day MA of 13.56, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARX.
Accelerant Holdings Class A Risk Analysis
Accelerant Holdings Class A disclosed 97 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accelerant Holdings Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accelerant Holdings Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $15.97M | 1.31 | 0.99% | ― | ― | ― | |
59 Neutral | $4.27B | -2.95 | -186.21% | ― | ― | ― | |
59 Neutral | $136.85M | 7.85 | 7.83% | ― | 6.02% | -144.93% | |
51 Neutral | $39.40M | -1.45 | 3.23% | ― | -8.37% | -220.33% |
* Financial Sector Average
ARX
Accelerant Holdings Class A
19.67
-9.62
-32.84%
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Accelerant Holdings Class A Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Accelerant Holdings Agrees to Thoma Bravo Take-Private Merger
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Accelerant Holdings entered into a merger agreement with Cherry Tree BidCo and its subsidiary, entities affiliated with Thoma Bravo’s Discover Fund V, under which Cherry Tree Merger Sub will merge into Accelerant and the ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Thoma Bravo to Take Accelerant Holdings Private in Merger
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Accelerant Holdings and Thoma Bravo announced a definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger under which Thoma Bravo affiliates Cherry Tree BidCo and Cherry Tree Merger Sub will combine with Accelerant, turning the insurer into a wh...
Business Operations and Strategy
Accelerant Holdings to Present at William Blair Growth Conference
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Accelerant Holdings announced that Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Radke will present at William Blair’s 46th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 3, 2026, at 10:20 a.m. Eastern Time. The presentation will be ava...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.