Ameresco (AMRC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 481.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.71
• Revenue Growth: 12.22%
• EPS Growth: 17.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 34,797,455
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 573,439
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 481,976
• PEG Ratio: -1.57
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.80
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.84
• 1Y Price Target: $44.43
• Price Target Upside: 66.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.09B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▼(-6.30% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality (persistent negative free cash flow) and elevated leverage alongside easing margins. These risks are partially offset by constructive 2026 guidance and strong backlog/visibility from the latest earnings call, while technical signals and valuation are broadly neutral.

Positive Factors

Large Backlog / Long‑term Visibility

A >$10B combined revenue visibility and >$5B project backlog give durable multi-year demand visibility. This backlog supports predictable project awards and phased revenue conversion, reducing near-term sales cyclicality and underpinning multi-quarter organic growth assumptions.

Growing Recurring Revenue & Asset Base

A rising O&M backlog (~$1.5B) and expanding owned asset base (838 MW) shift mix toward recurring, contracted cash flows. This structural revenue mix improves visibility, supports margin stability through long‑term service contracts, and reduces reliance on one‑off project sales.

Margin Discipline and 2026 Guidance

Management's tighter project selection, pricing discipline and 2026 guide (revenue +9%, EBITDA +19%) indicate sustainable operational improvements. If execution holds, higher adjusted EBITDA demonstrates leverage from scale and supports durable profitability enhancement over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Chronic Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative free cash flow and a negative TTM operating cash flow (~-$80M) indicate the business relies on external financing for growth. This weak cash conversion undermines balance sheet resilience, increases refinancing risk, and constrains reinvestment or shareholder returns over coming quarters.

Rising Leverage and Higher Debt Load

Debt nearly quadrupling to ~$1.95B and elevated debt-to-equity (~1.7x) reduce financial flexibility. Higher leverage raises interest burden, tightens covenant/headroom risk during cash flow volatility, and makes funding new projects more costly or conditional on external project financing.

Execution & Timing Risks on Complex Projects

Complex project de‑risking, weather interruptions and federal shutdowns have pushed timing on revenue conversion. These structural execution risks create lumpiness, can increase working capital needs, and may depress near‑term margins if projects face delays or damage requiring unrecoverable costs.

Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ameresco, Inc., a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations. The company operates through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Non-Solar Distributed Generation segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance (O&M) costs of its customers' facilities. The company's projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting systems. It also offers renewable energy solutions and services, such as the construction of small-scale plants that the company owns or develops for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy and O&M services; and electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, and heat or cooling produced from renewable sources of energy. In addition, the company sells photovoltaic (PV) solar energy products and systems, as well as provides consulting and enterprise energy management services; and owns and operates a wind power project located in Ireland. It serves the federal, state, and local governments, as well as healthcare and educational institutions, airports, public housing authorities and public universities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 147 small-scale renewable energy plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ameresco makes money primarily by (1) delivering and managing energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) and other energy efficiency/energy infrastructure projects, (2) owning and operating certain renewable energy assets and selling the resulting electricity and fuels, and (3) providing ongoing operations, maintenance, and other energy management services. 1) Project development and implementation revenue (energy efficiency and energy infrastructure): Ameresco is paid to design, engineer, procure, and construct energy efficiency and energy infrastructure improvements (e.g., HVAC and controls, lighting, building automation, central plants, resilience upgrades, and related measures). In performance-based contracting (such as ESPCs), project economics are typically supported by customer energy cost savings; Ameresco earns revenue from the delivery of the project and may also earn revenue over time when it arranges financing and/or provides long-term service. Customers are often government entities and institutions that use long-term contracts to fund upgrades out of expected savings. 2) Energy asset ownership and energy/renewable fuel sales: For certain projects, Ameresco develops, finances, and retains ownership (or a long-term interest) in renewable energy and distributed generation assets (such as solar, energy storage, landfill gas and anaerobic digestion/biogas projects, and renewable natural gas projects). These assets generate recurring revenue through the sale of electricity, thermal energy, renewable natural gas, and/or environmental attributes (e.g., renewable energy credits or similar instruments) under long-term offtake arrangements where available. The recurring nature of these sales can provide multi-year contracted cash flows tied to the output of the assets. 3) Operations & maintenance (O&M) and other recurring services: After project completion, Ameresco often earns ongoing revenue by operating and maintaining installed equipment and/or the renewable energy assets it owns or supports. This includes monitoring, maintenance, performance verification/measurement, and other managed services over contract terms that can span multiple years. Key factors influencing earnings include the volume and timing of project awards and construction activity (which affects project revenue recognition), the mix between one-time project revenue and recurring energy/O&M revenue, the company’s ability to originate projects with attractive financing structures, and the performance and availability of owned energy assets. Information on specific partnerships is null.

Ameresco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is solid over the long term, but profitability has weakened in the most recent period (net margin down to ~2.3% TTM). Leverage has risen meaningfully (debt up to ~$1.95B TTM; debt-to-equity ~1.68–1.73), and cash generation is the key risk with recurring negative free cash flow and operating cash flow turning negative again in TTM.

Income Statement

AMRC shows solid top-line expansion, with revenue rising from $1.03B (2020) to $1.77B (2024) and $1.93B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), despite some volatility (notably a decline in 2023). Profitability remains positive but has compressed over time: net margin fell from ~5–6% (2020–2022) to ~3.2% (2024) and ~2.3% in TTM, and operating profitability also eased versus earlier years. Overall, growth is a strength, but weakening margins and earnings power in the most recent period temper the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has risen meaningfully, with total debt increasing from ~$498M (2021) to ~$1.70B (2024) and ~$1.95B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Debt remains high relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~1.68–1.73 in 2023–TTM), which reduces financial flexibility. Equity has grown (from ~$493M in 2020 to ~$1.01B in 2024 and ~$1.12B in TTM), but returns to shareholders have cooled (return on equity down from ~11.5% in 2022 to ~5.6% in 2024 and ~4.2% in TTM).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weakness. Operating cash flow has been inconsistent and often negative (negative in 2020–2023, positive in 2024, and negative again in TTM at about -$80M). Free cash flow is deeply negative across all periods shown (roughly -$285M to -$666M annually; -$321M in 2024; and -$276M in TTM), indicating heavy cash investment and/or working-capital pressure. While earnings are positive, the pattern of recurring negative free cash flow increases reliance on financing and heightens risk if capital markets tighten.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.93B	1.77B	1.37B	1.82B	1.22B
Gross Profit	304.01M	256.09M	246.43M	290.83M	230.36M
EBITDA	229.75M	194.80M	150.39M	190.63M	141.93M
Net Income	44.28M	56.76M	62.47M	94.93M	70.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.54B	4.16B	3.71B	2.88B	2.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.78M	108.52M	79.27M	115.53M	50.45M
Total Debt	1.95B	1.70B	1.55B	937.65M	497.53M
Total Liabilities	3.41B	3.11B	2.74B	1.96B	1.47B
Stockholders Equity	1.08B	1.01B	901.98M	824.03M	704.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-436.36M	-320.75M	-621.76M	-666.19M	-356.07M
Operating Cash Flow	-80.36M	117.60M	-69.99M	-338.29M	-172.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-251.32M	-386.64M	-566.94M	-328.36M	-205.26M
Financing Cash Flow	318.38M	313.94M	640.80M	730.23M	365.46M

Ameresco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 26.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.83, below the 50-day MA of 30.47, and below the 200-day MA of 28.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMRC.

Ameresco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MYRG	76 Outperform	$4.14B	28.92	19.65%	―	-0.64%	168.51%
GVA	70 Outperform	$5.28B	26.09	17.58%	0.45%	6.87%	64.56%
TPC	70 Outperform	$3.76B	30.66	6.77%	0.09%	19.22%	78.83%
WLDN	67 Neutral	$1.11B	29.35	19.12%	―	12.90%	72.61%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AMRC	52 Neutral	$1.41B	34.84	4.24%	―	12.22%	17.41%