Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $930.83M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.11
• Revenue Growth: 41.61%
• EPS Growth: -1.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 287
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 179,350,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,607,175
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,471,894
• PEG Ratio: 0.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.26
• P/FCF Ratio: -94.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -43.95
• 1Y Price Target: $10.00
• Price Target Upside: 95.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $164.90M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▼(-2.15% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is primarily driven by improving fundamentals (rapid revenue growth, better gross margins, and positive operating cash flow) but held back by still-weak profitability, negative free cash flow, and rising debt. Technicals are also a headwind with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation support is limited due to losses. Earnings call guidance was generally positive, though tempered by margin pressure and one-time revenue items.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue and ARR scaling

Evolv has materially scaled top line and recurring revenue: multi-year revenue growth and a $117M ARR with ~ $300M RPO imply a durable pipeline and predictable renewal/expansion opportunities. This supports longer-term customer adoption and recurring revenue conversion over 2–6 months and beyond.

Improving cash generation and unit economics

Operating cash flow turning positive signals improved working-capital management and stronger cash conversion from operations. Combined with materially improved gross margins versus prior years, this indicates more sustainable unit economics and greater ability to fund operations or invest without immediate reliance on dilutive financing.

Partnerships and product roadmap strengthening moat

The Plexus partnership and recent product releases (Express 9.0, eXpedite 1.2, MyEvolv, Insights 6.0) bolster supply, scale and product differentiation. Greater production resiliency and continued product improvements support sustained deployments across large venues, aiding adoption and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Ongoing net losses and negative returns

Despite revenue and margin gains, the company remains unprofitable on a net income basis with deeply negative ROE. Persistent net losses constrain retained earnings, limit flexibility for shareholder returns, and mean profitability must solidly improve to justify sustained capital access over the medium term.

Negative free cash flow

Negative free cash flow indicates operations plus capex are not yet self-funding. Even with positive operating cash flow, ongoing negative FCF requires external financing or continued equity raises to support growth capex and working capital, creating dilution or refinancing risk if improvement stalls.

Rising debt increases financial risk

Leverage has increased materially in two years, concentrating liquidity and covenant risk if margins or cash flow reverse. Higher debt magnifies downside during profit volatility and can limit strategic optionality, especially while the company is still narrowing losses and not yet generating positive free cash flow.

Evolv Technologies Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI)-based touchless security screening systems. Its products include Evolv Express, a touchless security screening system designed to detect firearms, improvised explosive devices, and tactical knives as visitors walk through at a normal pace; Evolv Insights that provides self-serve access, insights regarding visitor flow and arrival curves, location specific performance, system detection performance, and alarm statistics; and Evolv Edge to detect non-metallic explosive devices, explosive devices, firearms, and tactical knives without requiring visitors to divest or empty their pockets. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolv primarily generates revenue by providing its weapon-detection screening solution to customers under commercial arrangements that include the screening hardware, associated software, and ongoing support. Key revenue streams include: (1) sale or deployment of screening systems (hardware) used at entrances and checkpoints; (2) recurring revenue tied to the software/AI components and related services that support operation, monitoring, analytics, and updates; and (3) service revenue from implementation, maintenance, and customer support activities. The company’s earnings are influenced by the pace of customer adoption across large venues and institutional buyers, the number of entrances/lanes deployed per customer, renewal/expansion activity for existing deployments, and the mix between upfront system-related revenue and ongoing software/services revenue. Specific named partnerships or contract terms that materially contribute to earnings: null.

Evolv Technologies Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling and materially improved gross margin support the business trajectory, and operating cash flow turned positive in 2025. However, profitability remains weak (still sizable net losses and negative returns on equity), free cash flow is still negative, and debt has risen meaningfully since 2023.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the period (from $4.8M in 2020 to $145.9M in 2025), and gross margin improved sharply versus earlier years (2025: ~51.6% vs. 2022: ~2.7%). Losses are narrowing (net loss improved to -$33.1M in 2025 from -$54.0M in 2024 and -$106.3M in 2023), but profitability remains weak with negative net margin (2025: ~-22.7%) and negative EBITDA margin (2025: ~-33.2%). Overall, strong top-line trajectory and better unit economics are positives, but the business is still not operating profitably.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with moderate debt relative to equity in the latest year (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.35) and a solid equity base ($119.4M). Total assets increased versus 2024 ($304.4M vs. $268.1M), supporting balance sheet scale. The key weakness is returns: equity returns remain negative (2025 return on equity ~-27.7%) due to ongoing losses, and debt has risen notably since 2023 ($42.2M in 2025 vs. $1.4M in 2023), which adds financial risk if profitability improvement stalls.

Cash Flow

Cash generation showed improvement with operating cash flow turning positive in 2025 ($18.7M) after negative levels in 2022–2024, indicating better working-capital and cash discipline. However, free cash flow remains negative in 2025 (-$12.7M) and deteriorated versus 2024 (-$68.2M to -$12.7M is an improvement in level, but the provided free cash flow growth is sharply negative), suggesting continued reinvestment and/or capex pressure. The overall picture is improving operating cash flow, but not yet consistently self-funding on a free-cash basis.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	145.91M	103.86M	80.42M	52.72M	23.39M
Gross Profit	75.30M	59.29M	33.83M	1.40M	4.03M
EBITDA	-20.46M	-36.64M	-95.62M	-80.64M	-1.93M
Net Income	-33.14M	-54.02M	-106.25M	-86.80M	-10.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	304.41M	268.06M	298.72M	348.12M	362.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.03M	51.94M	118.82M	230.12M	307.70M
Total Debt	42.24M	25.64M	1.39M	31.69M	9.95M
Total Liabilities	184.99M	150.41M	152.40M	121.13M	72.58M
Stockholders Equity	119.42M	117.65M	146.32M	226.99M	290.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-12.70M	-68.17M	-82.47M	-98.92M	-74.37M
Operating Cash Flow	18.67M	-30.85M	-9.80M	-74.74M	-56.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-41.83M	-1.40M	-123.11M	-23.87M	-17.59M
Financing Cash Flow	35.40M	1.81M	-29.66M	20.51M	377.83M

Evolv Technologies Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVLV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.26, below the 50-day MA of 5.89, and below the 200-day MA of 6.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EVLV.

Evolv Technologies Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	78 Outperform	$1.53B	27.53	27.45%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
ARLO	71 Outperform	$1.48B	97.67	12.47%	―	-2.83%	―
SNT	67 Neutral	$71.38M	28.93	12.02%	―	―	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MG	61 Neutral	$461.61M	23.60	7.67%	―	-3.20%	60.03%
EVLV	52 Neutral	$930.83M	-36.39	-30.45%	―	41.61%	-1.76%
KSCP	41 Neutral	$49.81M	-1.48	-156.57%	―	5.50%	51.32%

Evolv Technologies Holdings Corporate Events

Evolv Technologies Appoints Henrik Kühl to Board

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc., a Nasdaq-listed AI-based security technology company, provides advanced threat detection and safety solutions for major venues, enterprises, schools, hospitals, and public spaces globally. The company has scanned more than two billion people since 2019, holds U.S. Department of Homeland Security SAFETY Act Qualified Anti-Terrorism Technology designation, and has earned multiple industry awards for fan experience and public safety technologies.

On February 10, 2026, long-time director and early venture investor Bilal Zuberi resigned from Evolv’s board to pursue other endeavors, and on the same day the board appointed Henrik Kühl, a seasoned strategy and corporate development executive from Axon, as an independent Class III director effective February 12, 2026, with a seat on the audit committee. The board determined that Kühl meets Nasdaq and SEC independence standards and is an audit committee financial expert, signaling a continued emphasis on governance, capital allocation, and strategic growth as the company advances its mission and seeks to enhance shareholder value while acknowledging Zuberi’s 13 years of influential service.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVLV) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolv Technologies Holdings stock, see the EVLV Stock Forecast page.