Amplify Energy (AMPY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $96.40M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 677.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: -4.20%
• EPS Growth: -96.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 229
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 40,332,935
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 838,162
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 677,404
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 3.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.67
• Price Target Upside: 304.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

Amplify Energy's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial performance with declining revenues and cash flow issues, despite a strong gross profit margin. The stock's downward technical trend and moderate valuation added pressure. However, strategic initiatives from the earnings call, particularly the merger with Juniper Capital, provide a positive outlook for future growth and operational improvement.

Positive Factors

Production Growth

AMPY expects oil production to grow significantly at Beta this year.

Reserve Growth

The reserve update is anticipated to show strong organic growth from Beta development, potentially the highest in the coverage list.

Strategic Mergers

AMPY has scheduled a shareholder vote to approve the merger with Juniper Capital’s Rockies portfolio, viewed as a step toward building scale and mitigating offshore California risk.

Negative Factors

Financial Concerns

Debt levels were slightly higher sequentially at $127m.

Market Perception

Discussions with several public and private E&P companies were terminated due to perceived offshore California risk.

Production Delays

Volumes were 11% below estimates because of downtime and drilling delays at Beta.

Amplify Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amplify Energy Corp. is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas properties. The company's operations are primarily focused in the United States, with key assets located in the Rockies, offshore California, east Texas, and the Eagle Ford. Amplify Energy is committed to efficient resource extraction and leveraging strategic acquisitions to enhance its asset portfolio.

How the Company Makes Money

Amplify Energy makes money through the production and sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from its various properties. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the market prices of these commodities, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and market speculation. Amplify Energy also engages in hedging activities to mitigate the risk of price volatility. Additionally, the company may enter into joint ventures or partnerships to optimize resource development and share operational costs, which can contribute to its earnings.

Amplify Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Amplify Energy displays strong gross profit margins, yet faces declining revenues and net profit margins, indicating profit pressures. The balance sheet shows improved leverage but reduced profitability with a lower ROE. Concerns arise over cash flow due to negative free cash flow and reduced operating cash flow, suggesting potential challenges in sustaining operations without external financing.

Income Statement

Amplify Energy has shown an inconsistent revenue trend with a recent decline from $307.6M in 2023 to $294.7M in 2024. The gross profit margin improved significantly from 38.8% in 2023 to 93.7% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, net profit margin dropped substantially from 127.7% to 4.4%, reflecting a significant decline in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased from 24.8% to 10.3% and from 64.2% to 10.4% respectively, indicating potential operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company improved its debt-to-equity ratio significantly from 0.31 in 2023 to 0.009 in 2024, reducing financial leverage. The equity ratio increased slightly from 53% to 54.7%, showing a stable financial position with a majority of the assets financed by equity. However, the return on equity (ROE) decreased from 100.5% to 3.2%, signaling a drastic decline in profitability relative to shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Amplify Energy's operating cash flow fell from $141.6M in 2023 to $51.3M in 2024, impacting their cash generation capability. The free cash flow turned negative at -$20.9M from a positive $110.2M, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio also dropped from 0.36 to approximately 3.96, showing reduced efficiency in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
294.68M	307.60M	458.46M	342.92M	202.14M
	Gross Profit
276.25M	119.20M	273.72M	172.64M	20.62M
	EBIT
30.42M	76.22M	202.30M	118.56M	-26.56M
	EBITDA
62.56M	197.44M	104.05M	14.92M	-444.40M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
12.95M	392.75M	57.88M	-44.23M	-464.03M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
0.00	20.75M	-12.63M	18.80M	10.36M
	Total Assets
747.08M	737.67M	459.48M	455.10M	384.76M
	Total Debt
3.68M	121.83M	202.63M	230.00M	272.02M
	Net Debt
3.68M	101.08M	215.25M	211.20M	261.65M
	Total Liabilities
338.16M	346.64M	464.04M	519.94M	418.50M
	Stockholders Equity
408.91M	391.04M	-4.57M	-64.84M	-33.74M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-20.93M	110.21M	29.66M	33.14M	38.44M
	Operating Cash Flow
51.29M	141.59M	64.48M	62.97M	74.33M
	Investing Cash Flow
-82.03M	-38.60M	-41.52M	-29.43M	-35.89M
	Financing Cash Flow
9.99M	-82.24M	-41.76M	-25.11M	-28.40M

Amplify Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMPY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.47, below the 50-day MA of 4.27, and below the 200-day MA of 6.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMPY.

Amplify Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EPSN	70 Neutral	$136.23M	70.42	1.95%	4.04%	2.58%	-71.42%
PHX	69 Neutral	$131.59M	54.39	1.89%	4.32%	―	―
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.56B	4.34	-4.83%	6.50%	-0.19%	-64.60%
EPM	56 Neutral	$148.32M	89.09	1.95%	11.09%	-10.60%	-90.09%
AMPY	54 Neutral	$96.40M	8.04	2.97%	―	-4.20%	-96.92%
GTE	50 Neutral	$142.12M	19.73	0.79%	―	-2.37%	―
MMLP	47 Neutral	$108.96M	33.55	-6.93%	0.72%	-11.32%	-13.16%

Amplify Energy Corporate Events

Amplify Energy Announces 2024 Financial Results and Merger Plans

On March 5, 2025, Amplify Energy announced its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, highlighting a net income of $12.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $103 million for the year. The company also provided updates on its strategic initiatives for 2025, including a merger with Juniper Capital’s portfolio companies, which is expected to enhance its asset base and operational efficiency. Additionally, Amplify reported successful monetization of its Haynesville interests, generating significant proceeds and establishing new partnerships.

Amplify Energy Announces Strategic Merger with Juniper Capital

On January 14, 2025, Amplify Energy Corp. announced a merger agreement with Juniper Capital’s portfolio companies, North Peak Oil & Gas and Century Oil and Gas, to expand its oil-weighted assets in the DJ and Powder River Basins. The transaction, expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, will see Amplify issue approximately 26.7 million shares of its common stock and assume $133 million in net debt, resulting in Amplify shareholders retaining 61% of the combined company. This merger is anticipated to significantly improve Amplify’s operating metrics, increase its scale and growth opportunities, and provide substantial synergies and cash flow accretion. The merger positions Amplify to pursue further consolidation opportunities in the Rocky Mountain Basins and enhance its strategic growth in the oil industry.