Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $297.57M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 801.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.32
• Revenue Growth: -1.58%
• EPS Growth: -271.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 431
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -4.00
• Shares Outstanding: 35,298,775
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,287,467
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 801,321
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.49
• 1Y Price Target: $5.97
• Price Target Upside: -29.20% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $606.00M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(0.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is held down primarily by weak recent financial performance (TTM earnings loss, negative free cash flow, and high leverage). Offsetting factors include a strong technical uptrend and a constructive earnings call emphasizing hedged cash flow and deleveraging progress, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and recent corporate events add both balance-sheet positives and a governance risk.

Positive Factors

Operating Cash Generation

Sustained operating cash flow growth despite a headline loss shows the core E&P cash engine remains resilient. Strong cash from operations funds capex, services debt reduction, and supports covenant compliance, giving durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles.

Reserves and Production Base

A sizable, replacement-positive reserve base and material PDP provide sustainable production optionality. High 2P/3P volumes and reported PDP replacement underpin multi-year cash flow potential and NAV upside, supporting long-term production planning and capital allocation.

Liability Management & Liquidity Actions

Extending maturities and securing a larger prepayment facility materially reduces near-term refinancing pressure and creates runway for disciplined deleveraging. These structural actions improve liquidity and give management time to execute debt reduction and opportunistic repurchases.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

High net leverage increases interest burden and reduces financial flexibility, making the company sensitive to commodity price swings and operational hiccups. Elevated debt restricts discretionary capital, raises covenant/default risks, and lengthens the time needed to reach targeted net-debt/EBITDA goals.

Large 2025 Net Loss & Impairments

A material loss plus large impairments reduce equity, signal lower recoverable values, and cut distributable cash over time. Impairments can constrain future borrowing capacity, weaken coverage metrics, and slow progress toward structural profitability and sustained deleveraging targets.

Governance Overhang

Multiple director resignations and an ongoing Audit Committee probe create prolonged governance risk. Reduced board depth and active investigations can delay strategic approvals, complicate stakeholder relations, and impair investor confidence, increasing execution and oversight uncertainty.

Gran Tierra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gran Tierra Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved undeveloped reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Colombia. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Gran Tierra Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil (and related hydrocarbon volumes) from its operated onshore fields in Colombia and Ecuador. Revenue is generated when produced barrels are sold under commercial arrangements that typically price crude based on market-linked benchmarks with adjustments for factors such as crude quality, location differentials, and transportation/logistics (exact formulas vary by contract; null for contract-specific terms). Key revenue streams include (1) crude oil sales volumes from existing producing assets, where higher production and higher realized prices generally increase revenue; and (2) incremental production and reserves added through drilling, field development, and exploration success, which can expand future sales capacity. Cash flow and earnings are influenced by realized pricing, production levels, operating costs, royalties and other government take (e.g., taxes and contractual/regulated payments), transportation and pipeline/terminal fees, and hedging (if used; null for current hedging details). The company also manages capital allocation across development drilling, workovers, and infrastructure to maintain or grow production, and may benefit from asset acquisitions or farm-ins/farm-outs that add producing barrels or development inventory (null for any specific current partnership terms if not publicly detailed).

Gran Tierra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed but pressured: TTM revenue declined ~24% and the company swung to a sizable net loss (about -14% net margin), while leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~2.1 in TTM). Operating cash flow improved strongly, but free cash flow turned slightly negative, raising risk until profitability stabilizes and deleveraging progresses.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have weakened materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue fell about 24% versus the prior year and the company swung to a sizable net loss (about -14% net margin), despite still showing a strong EBITDA margin. Margins have been highly volatile over the cycle (very strong in 2021–2022, weak in 2020 and again in TTM), which is typical for the industry but increases earnings risk and reduces confidence in near-term profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated, with debt running well above equity across the historical period (debt-to-equity ~1.4–3.0, and ~2.1 in TTM). Equity has improved from earlier years, but TTM return on equity is negative, reflecting the recent loss. Overall, the balance sheet is workable but still carries meaningful leverage risk if commodity prices or operating performance stay pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation from operations is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow rose strongly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024, even as earnings turned negative, indicating the business is still producing cash. However, free cash flow turned slightly negative in TTM, pointing to heavier investment needs and/or less favorable working-capital dynamics. Cash flow performance has also been cyclical—very strong in 2022, weaker in 2023–2024, and pressured again on free cash flow in TTM.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	596.71M	621.85M	636.96M	711.39M	473.72M
Gross Profit	52.59M	170.44M	219.96M	358.53M	190.20M
EBITDA	267.57M	355.69M	377.55M	474.53M	217.39M
Net Income	-193.12M	3.22M	-6.29M	139.03M	42.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.59B	1.65B	1.33B	1.34B	1.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	82.93M	104.52M	63.29M	128.01M	26.50M
Total Debt	724.78M	762.21M	567.24M	594.39M	657.69M
Total Liabilities	1.36B	1.24B	929.89M	918.04M	887.03M
Stockholders Equity	228.74M	413.57M	396.39M	417.57M	302.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.38M	5.08M	9.11M	191.11M	94.95M
Operating Cash Flow	313.25M	239.32M	227.99M	427.71M	244.83M
Investing Cash Flow	-272.46M	-352.50M	-226.58M	-210.33M	-105.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-59.84M	156.87M	-69.60M	-113.32M	-124.81M

Gran Tierra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.90, above the 50-day MA of 5.83, and above the 200-day MA of 4.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GTE.

Gran Tierra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMPP	81 Outperform	$208.51M	2.50	10.70%	―	-9.98%	-19.48%
EPSN	73 Outperform	$166.81M	25.87	5.93%	5.24%	46.76%	11.48%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
EPM	65 Neutral	$160.67M	28.10	4.46%	13.52%	-2.23%	-104.00%
REI	60 Neutral	$305.72M	-5.17	-4.02%	―	-15.44%	-113.21%
GTE	52 Neutral	$297.57M	-0.78	-56.05%	―	-1.58%	-271.90%
EP	44 Neutral	$112.37M	-1.44	-177.26%	―	-15.13%	17.34%

Gran Tierra Energy Corporate Events

Gran Tierra Expands Colombian Assets with Tisquirama Block Deal

On March 17, 2026, Gran Tierra Energy announced it had signed a contract with Ecopetrol to earn a 49 percent working interest in the Tisquirama block in Colombia’s Middle Magdalena Valley Basin, which includes the Tisquirama and San Roque fields adjacent to its Acordionero field. The agreement, which remains subject to Colombian regulatory approval and other conditions, is structured around a multi-year capital carry and gives Gran Tierra the potential to assume operatorship and share in both base and incremental production once an initial work phase is completed.

Under the terms outlined, Phase 1 activity will center on extending Gran Tierra’s Acordionero-style waterflood program into the newly acquired fields, coupled with wellbore optimization and low-risk infill drilling, with completion expected after at least $15 million in gross capital spending and continuous water injection. The deal commits Gran Tierra to a sizable carry on a roughly $47.1 million gross capital program over 40 months, while offering long-term development rights, operational synergies in water and gas-to-power infrastructure, and access to more than 60 unbooked drilling locations in reservoirs with similar geology to Acordionero.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTE) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gran Tierra Energy stock, see the GTE Stock Forecast page.

Gran Tierra Energy Board Restructured After Multiple Director Resignations

On March 11 and 12, 2026, four directors of Gran Tierra Energy Inc. — Evan Hazell, Sondra Scott, David Smith and Brad Virbitsky — resigned from the board, prompting a reduction in board size from nine to five members. The departing directors previously held key roles on the Audit, Health, Safety & Environment, Reserves, Compensation, and Nominating and Corporate Governance committees, amplifying the governance significance of their exit.

Each of the four former directors cited disagreements with the majority of the then five-member Audit Committee over the handling of its independent investigation into an anonymous complaint. While the complaint does not allege fraud or financial misstatements, the Audit Committee has decided to continue the probe, directing management to pursue further investigation with external legal counsel and advisors, highlighting ongoing tensions around oversight and compliance processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTE) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gran Tierra Energy stock, see the GTE Stock Forecast page.

Gran Tierra Energy Extends Maturities with New 2031 Notes

On March 2, 2026, Gran Tierra Energy completed an exchange of US$11.7 million of its 9.500% Senior Secured Amortizing Notes due 2029 for additional 9.750% Senior Secured Amortizing Notes due 2031, bringing the total outstanding under the 2031 series to US$503.6 million. The new notes, which are guaranteed by key subsidiaries and secured by first-lien interests in certain equity, carry covenants restricting additional debt and other corporate actions, reinforcing the company’s capital structure while leaving US$87.6 million of the 2029 notes outstanding.

The exchange offer, which expired on February 27, 2026, resulted in holders tendering approximately 90.5% of the original US$716.3 million principal of the 2029 notes, of which US$628.7 million were accepted and converted into 2031 notes on settlement dates of February 18 and March 2, 2026. Gran Tierra received no cash proceeds, instead extending the maturity profile of a substantial portion of its secured debt and providing noteholders with longer-dated, higher-coupon instruments under a tightly covenanted indenture.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTE) stock is a Buy with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gran Tierra Energy stock, see the GTE Stock Forecast page.

Gran Tierra Energy Restructures Debt With New Prepayment Facility

On February 11, 2026, Gran Tierra Energy terminated its existing Credit and Guaranty Agreement dated April 16, 2025, fully repaid the facility and extinguished the related guarantees and security interests without incurring any material early termination penalties. This step reduces secured debt under that facility and simplifies the company’s capital structure. On February 11 and 12, 2026, several Gran Tierra subsidiaries in Colombia and Ecuador entered into crude oil sale and purchase agreements with Trafigura entities and simultaneously amended and restated an associated prepayment arrangement, providing up to $175 million in additional advances plus a $25 million uncommitted accordion, to be repaid through future oil deliveries. The new prepayment structure, backed by parent guarantees, asset security in Colombia, and covenants on asset coverage and debt service ratios, is intended to fund an exchange offer or cash tender for existing notes and repurchases of senior debt, signaling an active refinancing strategy and a tighter linkage between Gran Tierra’s physical oil sales and its balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTE) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gran Tierra Energy stock, see the GTE Stock Forecast page.

Gran Tierra Advances Debt Exchange to Extend Note Maturities

On February 12, 2026, Gran Tierra Energy reported strong early participation in its private exchange offer, with US$636.74 million, or about 88.89%, of its 9.500% Senior Secured Amortizing Notes due 2029 tendered for new 9.750% Senior Secured Amortizing Notes due 2031, and sufficient consents received to approve amendments to the existing indenture that will become operative upon consummation of the offer. The company set an early settlement date of February 18, 2026 for notes tendered by the February 11 early participation deadline, detailed a mix of cash and new notes as consideration for early tenders, removed withdrawal rights after that deadline, amended terms for later tenders that will receive only new notes, and adjusted accrued interest mechanics, collectively signaling an active liability management effort that extends maturities and reshapes covenant and collateral structures for its debt holders.

The exchange offer, launched January 29, 2026, aims to replace existing 2029 secured notes with longer-dated 2031 notes while easing restrictive covenants and releasing collateral under the current indenture. By securing consents from over two-thirds of noteholders and amending the offer terms ahead of the final February 27, 2026 expiration, Gran Tierra is consolidating creditor support, increasing financial flexibility and clarifying settlement economics for both early and later-participating investors, which may reduce refinancing risk and alter risk-return dynamics for stakeholders in its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTE) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gran Tierra Energy stock, see the GTE Stock Forecast page.