Public companies are required to disclose risks that can affect the business and impact the stock. These disclosures are known as “Risk Factors”. Companies disclose these risks in their yearly (Form 10-K), quarterly earnings (Form 10-Q), or “foreign private issuer” reports (Form 20-F). Risk factors show the challenges a company faces. Investors can consider the worst-case scenarios before making an investment. TipRanks’ Risk Analysis categorizes risks based on proprietary classification algorithms and machine learning.

Alto Ingredients disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alto Ingredients reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Risk Overview Q3, 2024

Risk Distribution

33% Finance & Corporate

25% Legal & Regulatory

21% Production

13% Tech & Innovation

4% Ability to Sell

4% Macro & Political

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

This chart displays the stock's most recent risk distribution according to category. TipRanks has identified 6 major categories: Finance & corporate, legal & regulatory, macro & political, production, tech & innovation, and ability to sell.

Risk Change Over Time

2020

S&P500 Average

Sector Average

Risks removed

Risks added

Risks changed

Alto Ingredients Risk Factors

New Risk (0)

Risk Changed (0)

Risk Removed (0)

No changes from previous report

The chart shows the number of risks a company has disclosed. You can compare this to the sector average or S&P 500 average.

The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.

Risk Highlights Q3, 2024

Main Risk Category

Finance & Corporate

With 8 Risks

Finance & Corporate

With 8 Risks

Number of Disclosed Risks

No changes from last report

S&P 500 Average: 31

No changes from last report

S&P 500 Average: 31

Recent Changes

2Risks added

0Risks removed

2Risks changed

Since Sep 2024

2Risks added

0Risks removed

2Risks changed

Since Sep 2024

Number of Risk Changed

No changes from last report

S&P 500 Average: 3

No changes from last report

S&P 500 Average: 3

See the risk highlights of Alto Ingredients in the last period.

Risk Word Cloud

The most common phrases about risk factors from the most recent report. Larger texts indicate more widely used phrases.

Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 24

Finance & Corporate

Total Risks: 8/24 (33%)Below Sector Average

Share Price & Shareholder Rights2 | 8.3%

Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1

Our stock price is highly volatile, which could result in substantial losses for investors purchasing shares of our common stock and in litigation against us.

The market price of our common stock has fluctuated significantly in the past and may continue to fluctuate significantly in the future. The market price of our common stock may continue to fluctuate in response to one or more of the following factors, or any of the other risks or uncertainties discussed in this report, many of which are beyond our control: - fluctuations in our quarterly or annual operating results;- fluctuations in the market prices of our products;- fluctuations in the costs of key production input commodities such as corn and natural gas;- the timing, cost and effects of, and our ability to fund, our capital improvement projects, including with respect to our CCS project;- anticipated trends in our financial condition and results of operations;- our ability to obtain any necessary financing;- the volume and timing of the receipt of orders for our products from major customers, including annual contracted sales volumes for our specialty alcohols;- competitive pricing pressures;- changes in market valuations of companies similar to us;- stock market price and volume fluctuations generally;- regulatory developments or increased enforcement;- additions or departures of key personnel;- environmental, product or other liabilities we may incur;- our financing activities and future sales of our common stock or other securities; and - our ability to maintain contracts that are critical to our operations. The price at which you purchase shares of our common stock may not be indicative of the price that will prevail in the trading market. You may be unable to sell your shares of common stock at or above your purchase price, which may result in substantial losses to you and which may include the complete loss of your investment. In the past, securities class action litigation has often been brought against a company following periods of high stock price volatility. We may be the target of similar litigation in the future. Securities litigation could result in substantial costs and divert management's attention and our resources away from our business. Any of the risks described above could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, the price of our common stock, or both.

Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2

Our bylaws contain exclusive forum provisions that could limit our stockholders' ability to obtain a favorable judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers, employees or agents.

Our bylaws provide that, unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, the Delaware Court of Chancery shall be the sole and exclusive forum for (a) any derivative action or proceeding brought on our behalf, (b) any action asserting a claim of breach of a fiduciary duty owed by any director, officer or other employee of us to us or our stockholders, (c) any action asserting a claim arising pursuant to any provision of the Delaware General Corporation Law, or (d) any action asserting a claim governed by the internal affairs doctrine. Our bylaws also provide that, unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, the federal district courts of the United States of America shall be the exclusive forum for the resolution of any complaint asserting a cause of action arising under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, including all causes of action asserted against any defendant named in such complaint, including our officers and directors, underwriters for any offering giving rise to such complaint, and any other professional entity whose profession gives authority to a statement made by that person or entity and who has prepared or certified any part of the documents underlying the offering. For the avoidance of doubt, the exclusive forum provisions described above do not apply to any claims arising under the Securities Act or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act, to the extent federal law requires otherwise. Section 27 of the Exchange Act creates exclusive federal jurisdiction over all suits brought to enforce any duty or liability created by the Exchange Act or the rules and regulations thereunder, and Section 22 of the Securities Act creates concurrent jurisdiction for federal and state courts over all suits brought to enforce any duty or liability created by the Securities Act or the rules and regulations thereunder. The choice of forum provisions in our bylaws may limit our stockholders' ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that they find favorable for disputes with us or our directors, officers, employees, agents or other third parties, which may discourage such lawsuits against us and our directors, officers, employees, agents and other third parties even though an action, if successful, might benefit our stockholders. The applicable courts may also reach different judgments or results than would other courts, including courts where a stockholder considering an action may be located or would otherwise choose to bring the action, and such judgments or results may be more favorable to us than to our stockholders. With respect to the provision making the Delaware Court of Chancery the sole and exclusive forum for certain types of actions, stockholders who do bring a claim in the Delaware Court of Chancery could face additional litigation costs in pursuing any such claim, particularly if they do not reside in or near Delaware. Finally, if a court were to find these provisions of our bylaws inapplicable to, or unenforceable in respect of, one or more of the specified types of actions or proceedings, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such matters in other jurisdictions, which could have a material adverse effect on us.

Accounting & Financial Operations4 | 16.7%

Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1

Because we do not plan to pay any cash dividends on our shares of common stock, our stockholders will not be able to receive a return on their shares unless and until they sell them.

We intend to retain a significant portion of any future earnings to finance the development, operation and expansion of our business. We do not anticipate paying any cash dividends on our common stock in the near future. The declaration, payment, and amount of any future dividends will be made at the discretion of our board of directors, and will depend upon, among other things, our results of operations, cash flows, and financial condition, operating and capital requirements, compliance with any applicable debt covenants, and other factors our board of directors considers relevant. There is no assurance that future dividends will be paid, and, if dividends are paid, there is no assurance of the amount of any such dividend. Unless our board of directors determines to pay dividends, our stockholders will be required to look solely to appreciation in the value of our common stock to realize any gain on their investment. There can be no assurance that any such appreciation will occur.

Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2

We may suffer impairments in the value of our long-lived assets which may materially and adversely affect our results of operations.

We evaluate our long-lived assets annually for impairment or when circumstances indicate that the full carrying value of an asset may be unrecoverable. These evaluations rely on financial and other assumptions concerning the assets, any of which may not materialize in the future. For example, we recognized asset impairments of $6.5 million and $3.1 million for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2021, respectively. We may recognize additional impairments of the values of our long-lived assets in the future based on then-prevailing financial and other circumstances. Impairments of our long-lived assets may materially and adversely affect our results of operations.

Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3

We have incurred significant losses and negative operating cash flow in the past and we may incur losses and negative operating cash flow in the future, which may hamper our operations and impede us from expanding our business.

We have incurred significant losses and negative operating cash flow in the past. For example, for the three months ended September 30, 2024, June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, we incurred consolidated net losses of approximately $2.4 million, $3.1 million, $19.0 million, $17.3 million, $28.0 million and $41.6 million, respectively. We may incur losses and negative operating cash flow in the future. We expect to rely on cash on hand, cash, if any, generated from our operations, borrowing availability under our lines of credit and proceeds from our future financing activities, if any, to fund all of the cash requirements of our business. Additional losses and negative operating cash flow may hamper our operations and impede us from expanding our business.

Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 4

Our ability to utilize net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax attributes may be limited.

Federal and state income tax laws impose restrictions on our use of net operating loss, or NOL, and tax credit carryforwards in the event that an "ownership change" occurs for tax purposes, as defined by Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code, or Code. In general, an ownership change occurs when stockholders owning 5% or more of a corporation entitled to use NOL or other loss carryforwards have increased their ownership by more than 50 percentage points during any three-year period. The annual base limitation under Section 382 of the Code is calculated by multiplying the corporation's value at the time of the ownership change by the greater of the long-term tax-exempt rate determined by the Internal Revenue Service in the month of the ownership change or the two preceding months. Our ability to utilize our NOL and other loss carryforwards may be substantially limited. These limitations could result in increased future tax obligations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Debt & Financing2 | 8.3%

Debt & Financing - Risk 1

Our indebtedness may expose us to risks that could negatively impact our business, prospects, liquidity, cash flows and results of operations.

We have incurred, and anticipate incurring additional, substantial indebtedness for our capital improvement projects. We expect that these projects, when completed, will generate financial returns sufficient to service and ultimately repay or refinance our indebtedness. However, the costs, timing, and effects of our capital improvement projects may not meet our projections. In addition, our indebtedness could: - make it more difficult to repay or refinance our indebtedness if it becomes due during adverse economic and industry conditions;- result in adverse consequences due to a breach of our financial or other covenants and obligations in favor of our lenders;- limit our flexibility to pursue strategic opportunities or react to changes in our business and the industries in which we operate and, consequently, place us at a competitive disadvantage to our competitors who have less debt;- require a substantial portion of our cash flows from operations for debt service payments, thereby reducing the availability of our cash flows to fund working capital, additional capital expenditures, acquisitions, dividend payments and for other general corporate purposes; or - limit our ability to procure additional financing for working capital or other purposes. Our ability to generate operating results and sufficient cash to make all required principal and interest payments when due, and to satisfy our financial covenants and other obligations, depends on our performance, which is subject to a variety of factors beyond our control, including the cost of key production inputs, the supply of and demand for alcohols and essential ingredients, and many other factors related to the industries in which we operate. We cannot provide any assurance that we will be able to timely service or satisfy our debt obligations, including our financial covenants. Our failure to timely service or satisfy our debt obligations, including to meet our financial covenants, could result in our indebtedness being immediately due and payable, and would have a material adverse effect on our business, business prospects, liquidity, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.

Debt & Financing - Risk 2

We may engage in hedging transactions and other risk mitigation strategies that could harm our results of operations and financial condition.

To partially offset the effects of production input and product price volatility, in particular, corn and natural gas costs and fuel-grade ethanol prices, we may enter into contracts to purchase a portion of our corn or natural gas requirements on a forward basis or fix the sale price of portions of our alcohol production. In addition, we may engage in other hedging transactions involving exchange-traded futures contracts for corn, natural gas and unleaded gasoline from time to time. The financial statement impact of these activities is dependent upon, among other things, the prices involved and our ability to sell sufficient products to use all of the corn and natural gas for which forward commitments have been made. We have recognized losses in the past, and may suffer losses in the future, from our hedging arrangements. For example, for the year ended December 31, 2023, we recognized net losses of $8.0 million, related to the change in the fair values of hedging contracts. Hedging arrangements also expose us to the risk of financial loss in situations where our counterparty to the hedging contract defaults on its contract or, in the case of exchange-traded contracts, where there is a change in the expected differential between the underlying price in the hedging agreement and the actual prices paid or received by us. In addition, our open contract positions may require cash deposits to cover margin calls, negatively impacting our liquidity. As a result, our hedging activities and fluctuations in the price of corn, natural gas, fuel-grade ethanol and unleaded gasoline may adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.

Legal & Regulatory

Total Risks: 6/24 (25%)Above Sector Average

Regulation3 | 12.5%

Regulation - Risk 1

Changed

The United States fuel-grade ethanol industry is highly dependent upon various federal and state laws and regulations and any changes in or reinterpretations of those laws or regulations could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition.

The domestic market for fuel-grade ethanol is significantly impacted by federal mandates for volumes of renewable fuels (such as ethanol) required to be blended with gasoline. Future demand for fuel-grade ethanol will largely depend on incentives to blend ethanol into motor fuels, including the price of ethanol relative to the price of gasoline, the relative octane value of ethanol, constraints on the ability of vehicles to use higher ethanol blends, and the EPA's, established volumes from time to time, small refinery waivers, and other applicable environmental requirements. The EPA has implemented the Renewable Fuel Standard under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The EPA, in coordination with the Secretary of Energy and the Secretary of Agriculture, determines annual quotas for the quantity of renewable fuels (such as fuel-grade ethanol) that must be blended into motor fuels consumed in the United States. The EPA finalized mandatory volumes of 15.0 billion gallons for each of 2023, 2024, and 2025 of conventional renewable fuel, or corn-based fuel-grade ethanol, which could decline in future years. The EPA may issue small refinery waivers, in full or in part, to reduce or eliminate annual renewable fuel volume requirements for small refineries that process fewer than 75,000 barrels of petroleum daily. In the past, the EPA has issued small refinery waivers that have materially and adversely affected overall demand for and the price of fuel-grade ethanol. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, in the fourth quarter of 2023, struck down the EPA's decision to deny numerous small refinery waivers, finding that the EPA's denials were impermissibly retroactive, contrary to law and counter to evidence in the litigation record. Accordingly, small refinery waivers from the EPA may be more likely in the future and could again materially and adversely affect overall demand for and the price of fuel-grade ethanol. Various bills in Congress introduced from time to time are also directed at altering existing renewable fuels energy legislation, but none have passed in recent years. Some legislative bills are directed at halting or reversing expansion of, or even eliminating in its entirety, the renewable fuel program. Our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition could be adversely impacted if the EPA reduces mandatory volumes or issues significant small refinery waivers, or if any legislation is enacted that reduces volume requirements or if existing legislation is reinterpreted to have the same effect.

Regulation - Risk 2

Added

Our CCS project may be adversely affected by the SAFE CCS Act.

The SAFE CCS Act was signed into law in Illinois in July 2024. We are evaluating at our Pekin Campus, located in Illinois, a CCS project that will require significant financial and personnel resources. Our CCS project is our most important ongoing capital improvement initiative. The SAFE CCS Act establishes stringent safety, financial and insurance requirements on CO2 pipelines and imposes a moratorium on the construction of new CO2 pipelines until the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration finalizes its new safety rules or July 1, 2026, whichever occur sooner. The SAFE CCS Act will result in increased compliance and other requirements likely adding costs and potentially adding time to complete our CCS project. We can provide no assurance that our CCS project will not be adversely affected by the SAFE CCS Act or that it will be financially viable in light of any new requirements and potential delays.

Regulation - Risk 3

We may be adversely affected by food and drug laws and regulations, as well as related liabilities that may not be adequately covered by insurance.

Some of our products are subject to regulation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, as well as similar state agencies. The FDA regulates, under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, or FDCA, the processing, formulation, safety, manufacture, packaging, labeling and distribution of food ingredients, vitamins, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals for active and inactive ingredients. Many of the FDA's and FDCA's rules and regulations apply directly to us as well as indirectly through their application in our customers' products. To be properly marketed and sold in the United States, a relevant product must be generally recognized as safe, approved and not adulterated or misbranded under the FDCA and relevant regulations issued under the FDCA. If we fail to comply with laws and FDA regulations or those of similar state agencies, we may be prevented from selling certain of our products and may also be subject to government agency enforcement liability. In addition, we may be subject to product liability and other claims by our customers or by individuals alleging personal injury from our products as food and drug additives. We maintain insurance coverage against some, but not all, potential losses. Some of these matters, if they arise, may require us to expend significant amounts for investigation and defense or other costs not covered by insurance. We could sustain losses for uninsurable or uninsured risks, or in amounts in excess of existing insurance coverages. Events that result in significant personal injury or other losses that are not fully covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

Litigation & Legal Liabilities1 | 4.2%

Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 1

Added

The United States Supreme Court's decision in the case of Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. may result in less industry-favorable rulemaking and agency interpretations of laws and regulations, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition as well as the business and financial prospects of certain capital improvement projects, such as CCS.

The United States Supreme Court, in the landmark case of Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., recently overturned its prior doctrine of judicial deference to administrative interpretations of laws and regulations. This outcome could materially and adversely affect rulemaking and agencies' interpretations favorable to the renewable fuels industry, such as the EPA's administration of the Renewable Fuel Standard. This outcome could also materially and adversely affect the Treasury Department's ability to promulgate favorable regulations under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, including tax credits such as the 45Q carbon capture and storage tax credits, and other industry-favorable tax credits. Less industry-favorable rulemaking and agency interpretations of laws and regulations could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition as well as the financial prospects of certain capital improvement projects, such as CCS.

Environmental / Social2 | 8.3%

Environmental / Social - Risk 1

Climate change, and governmental regulations aimed at addressing climate-related issues, may affect conditions to which our business is highly sensitive, many of which could materially and adversely harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Our business is highly sensitive to commodity prices, in particular, the prices of corn and natural gas. Inclement weather from climate change, including extreme temperatures or drought, may adversely affect growing conditions, which may reduce available corn supplies, our primary production input, and other grain substitutes, driving up prices and thereby increasing our production input costs. In addition, governmental regulators may disfavor carbon-based energy sources, such as natural gas, leading to regulations that disincentivize their use or otherwise make their production more difficult and costly, driving up their prices. Higher natural gas prices would likewise increase our production input costs. Other factors that may result from climate change, or that may result from governmental regulations aimed at addressing climate-related issues, may also adversely affect our business, including the following: - water is one of our key production inputs; water resource limitations may result from drought and other inclement weather; water resource limitations may also result from rationing and other governmental regulations limiting water use;- higher water temperatures due to increased global or regional temperatures may negatively affect production efficiencies due to water temperature production requirements given the poor cooling capacities of our older facilities;- flooding and other inclement weather may negatively affect our river access, other transportation logistics and costs, and storage requirements;- an overall increase in energy costs will negatively impact our production costs generally and may critically impact certain high energy-intensive production technologies, such as our wet milling and multiple distillation processes for the highest quality specialty alcohols;- regulatory and market transition away from combustion fuels and fuel-grade ethanol blending may threaten the viability of our renewable fuels business; and - costs and regulatory burdens associated with governmental regulations that limit or tax greenhouse gas emissions, such as CO2, from alcohol production and distribution, or from truck transport and packaging associated with Eagle Alcohol's business and use of drums and totes, will negatively impact us. New legislation in the United States to address climate change issues, including at the federal, state and local levels, likely will continue. This may include new or expanded cap-and-trade programs that may layer additional costs on any business that emits greenhouse gases. New legislation, including new or expanded cap-and-trade programs, could materially and adversely impact our production cost structure and the market viability of our products. Any of these factors could materially and adversely harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Environmental / Social - Risk 2

We may be adversely affected by environmental, health and safety laws and regulations, as well as related liabilities that may not be adequately covered by insurance.

We are subject to various federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations, including those relating to the discharge of materials into the air, water and ground; the generation, storage, handling, use, transportation and disposal of hazardous materials and wastes; and the health and safety of our employees. In addition, some of these laws and regulations require us to operate under permits that are subject to renewal or modification. These laws, regulations and permits often require expensive pollution control equipment or operational changes to limit actual or potential impacts to the environment. Any violation of these laws and regulations or permit conditions may result in substantial fines, natural resource damages, criminal sanctions, permit revocations and/or production facility shutdowns. In addition, we have made, and expect to make, significant capital expenditures on an ongoing basis to comply with increasingly stringent environmental laws, regulations and permits. We may be liable for the investigation and cleanup of environmental contamination at each of our production facilities and at off-site locations where we arrange for the disposal of hazardous substances or wastes. If these substances or wastes have been or are disposed of or released at sites that undergo investigation and/or remediation by regulatory agencies, we may be responsible under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980, or other environmental laws for all or part of the costs of investigation and/or remediation, and for damages to natural resources. We may also be subject to related claims by private parties alleging property damage and personal injury due to exposure to hazardous or other materials at or from those properties. Some of these matters may require us to expend significant amounts for investigation, cleanup or other costs not covered by insurance. In addition, new laws, new interpretations of existing laws, increased governmental enforcement of environmental laws or other developments could require us to make significant additional expenditures. Continued government and public emphasis on environmental issues will likely result in increased future investments for environmental controls at our production facilities. Present and future environmental laws and regulations, and interpretations of those laws and regulations, applicable to our operations, more vigorous enforcement policies and discovery of currently unknown conditions may require substantial expenditures that could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. The hazards and risks associated with producing and transporting our products (including fires, natural disasters, explosions and abnormal pressures and blowouts) may also result in personal injury claims or damage to property and third parties. As protection against operating hazards, we maintain insurance coverage against some, but not all, potential losses. However, we could sustain losses for uninsurable or uninsured risks, or in amounts in excess of existing insurance coverages. Events that result in significant personal injury or damage to our property or third parties or other losses that are not fully covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

Production

Total Risks: 5/24 (21%)Below Sector Average

Manufacturing2 | 8.3%

Manufacturing - Risk 1

We regularly incur significant expenses to repair, maintain and upgrade our production facilities and operating equipment, and any interruption in our operations would harm our operating performance.

We regularly incur significant expenses to repair, maintain and upgrade our production facilities and operating equipment, estimated at an average of $30.0 million per year; however, we expect these expenses will be approximately $34.0 million for 2024. The machines and equipment we use to produce our alcohols and essential ingredients are complex, have many parts, and some operate on a continuous basis. We must perform routine equipment maintenance and must periodically replace a variety of parts such as motors, pumps, pipes and electrical parts, and engage in other repairs. In addition, our production facilities require periodic shutdowns to perform major maintenance and upgrades. Our production facilities also occasionally require unscheduled shutdowns to perform repairs. For example, we recently completed our biennial wet mill outage at our Pekin Campus. The wet mill was offline for ten days, which negatively impacted sales and margins for the second quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, production at our Colombia facility was hampered by equipment issues that extended the facility's regularly scheduled outage. In the third quarter of 2023 we experienced unusually high unscheduled production downtime for repairs and maintenance at our Pekin Campus which reduced sales volumes and increased losses. These scheduled and unscheduled shutdowns result in lower sales and increased costs in the periods during which a shutdown occurs and could result in unexpected operational issues in future periods resulting from changes to equipment and operational and mechanical processes made during shutdown.

Manufacturing - Risk 2

Disruptions in our production or distribution, including from climate change and other weather effects, may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Our business depends on the continuing availability of rail, road, port, storage and distribution infrastructure. In particular, due to limited storage capacity at some of our production facilities and other considerations related to production efficiencies, certain facilities depend on timely delivery of corn. Alcohol production also requires a significant and uninterrupted supply of other raw materials and energy, primarily water, electricity and natural gas. Local water, electricity and gas utilities may fail to reliably supply the water, electricity and natural gas that our production facilities need or may fail to supply those resources on acceptable terms. In the past, poor weather has caused disruptions in rail transportation, which slowed the delivery of fuel-grade ethanol by rail, a key method by which fuel-grade ethanol from our Pekin Campus is transported to market. For example, in the first quarter of 2024, extreme cold weather conditions in January at our Pekin Campus restricted barge deliveries and increased standby fees. To manage inventory levels, we transported more product by rail, a higher cost mode of transportation. Cold weather conditions also required us to shift to lower margin feed products and reduced our production rates across our Pekin Campus, hindering our ability to produce specialty alcohol at full capacity. In the third quarter of 2023 we experienced unusually high unscheduled production downtime for repairs and maintenance which reduced sales volumes and profits. In 2022, a lightning strike at the utility servicing our Pekin Campus disrupted our operations, cutting power to our facilities and materially affecting our production, resulting in unexpected repair and maintenance costs, lost production and degradation in the quality of work-in-progress inventories. In addition, in 2020, we experienced closure of the Illinois River for lock repairs which required greater use of less cost-effective modes of product transport such as via rail and truck, which resulted in higher costs and negatively affected our results of operations. Disruptions in production or distribution, whether caused by labor difficulties, unscheduled downtimes and other operational hazards inherent in the alcohol production industry, including equipment failures, fires, explosions, abnormal pressures, blowouts, pipeline ruptures, transportation accidents, climate change and natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and storms, or other weather effects, or human error or malfeasance or other reasons, could prevent timely deliveries of corn or other raw materials and energy, and could delay transport of our products to market, and may require us to halt production at one or more production facilities, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Some of these operational hazards may also cause personal injury or loss of life, severe damage to or destruction of property and equipment or environmental damage, and may result in suspension of operations and the imposition of civil or criminal penalties. Our insurance may not fully cover the potential hazards described above or we may be unable to renew our insurance on commercially reasonable terms or at all.

Costs3 | 12.5%

Costs - Risk 1

Increased alcohol or essential ingredient production or higher inventory levels may cause a decline in prices for those products, and may have other negative effects, materially and adversely impacting our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition.

The prices of our alcohols and essential ingredients are highly impacted by competing third-party supplies of those products. In addition, if fuel-grade ethanol production margins improve, we anticipate that owners of production facilities operating at below capacity, or owners of idled production facilities, will increase production levels, thereby resulting in more abundant fuel-grade ethanol supplies and inventories. Increases in the supply of alcohols and essential ingredients may not be commensurate with increases in demand for alcohols and essential ingredients, thus leading to lower prices. Any of these outcomes could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition.

Costs - Risk 2

Our results of operations and our ability to operate at a profit are largely dependent on our ability to manage the costs of corn, natural gas and other production inputs, with the prices of our alcohols and essential ingredients, all of which are subject to volatility and uncertainty.

Our results of operations are highly impacted by commodity prices, including the cost of corn, natural gas and other production inputs that we must purchase, and the prices of alcohols and essential ingredients that we sell. Prices and supplies are subject to and determined by numerous market and other forces over which we have no control, such as inclement or favorable weather, domestic and global demand, supply excesses or shortages, export conditions, inflationary conditions, global geopolitical tensions and various governmental policies in the United States and throughout the world. Price volatility of corn, natural gas and other production inputs, and alcohols and essential ingredients, may cause our results of operations to fluctuate significantly. We may fail to generate expected levels of net sales and profits even under fixed-price and other contracts for the sale of specialty alcohols used in consumer products. Our customers may not pay us timely or at all, even under longer-term, fixed-price contracts for our specialty alcohols, and may seek to renegotiate prices under those contracts during periods of falling prices or high price volatility. Over the past several years, for example, the spread between corn and fuel-grade ethanol prices has fluctuated significantly. Fluctuations are likely to continue to occur. A sustained negative or narrow spread, whether as a result of sustained high or increased corn prices or sustained low or decreased alcohol or essential ingredient prices, would adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Revenues from sales of alcohols, particularly fuel-grade ethanol, and essential ingredients have in the past and could in the future decline below the marginal cost of production, which have in the past and may again in the future force us to suspend production, particularly fuel-grade ethanol production, at some or all of our facilities. For example, we hot-idled our Magic Valley facility in early 2023 due to unfavorable market conditions and again hot-idled our Magic Valley facility in early 2024 in part due to unfavorable market conditions and to expedite the installation of additional equipment needed to achieve the intended production rate, quality and consistency from the corn oil and high protein system at the facility. We restarted the Magic Valley facility in July 2024, but due to challenging economics that arose in the fourth quarter and continue through the filing of this report, we plan to idle the plant before the end of 2024 unless there are meaningful improvements in overall economics at the facility. In addition, some of our fuel-grade ethanol marketing and distribution activities will likely be unprofitable in a market of generally declining prices due to the nature of our business. For example, to satisfy customer demand, we maintain certain quantities of fuel-grade ethanol inventory for subsequent resale. Moreover, we procure much of our fuel-grade ethanol inventory outside of contracted third-party marketing and distribution arrangements and therefore must buy fuel-grade ethanol at a price established at the time of purchase and sell fuel-grade ethanol at an index price established later at the time of sale that is generally reflective of movements in the market price of fuel-grade ethanol. As a result, our margins for fuel-grade ethanol sold in these transactions generally decline and may turn negative as the market price of fuel-grade ethanol declines. We can provide no assurances that corn, natural gas or other production inputs can be purchased at or near current or any specific prices, or that our alcohols or essential ingredients will sell at or near current or any particular prices. Consequently, our results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected by increases in the prices of corn, natural gas and other production inputs or decreases in the prices of our alcohols and essential ingredients.

Costs - Risk 3

The prices of our products are volatile and subject to large fluctuations, which may cause our results of operations to fluctuate significantly.

The prices of our products are volatile and subject to large fluctuations. For example, the market price of fuel-grade ethanol is dependent upon many factors, including the supply of ethanol and the price of gasoline, which is in turn dependent upon the price of petroleum which itself is highly volatile, difficult to forecast and influenced by a wide variety of global economic and geopolitical conditions, including decisions concerning petroleum output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, an intergovernmental organization that seeks to manage the price and supply of oil on the global energy market. Other important factors that impact the price of petroleum include war and threats of war, attacks on or threats to shipping vessels as has recently occurred in the Red Sea, the consequent rerouting of supply lines to less direct or more expensive paths, and other supply chain disruptions. Our fuel-grade ethanol sales are tied to prevailing spot market prices rather than long-term, fixed-price contracts. Fuel-grade ethanol prices, as reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, ranged from $1.58 to $2.67 per gallon in 2023, from $2.00 to $2.88 per gallon in 2022 and from $1.48 to $3.75 per gallon in 2021. In addition, even under longer-term, fixed-price contracts for our specialty alcohols, our customers may seek to renegotiate prices under those contracts during periods of falling prices or high price volatility. Fluctuations in the prices of our products may cause our results of operations to fluctuate significantly.

Tech & Innovation

Total Risks: 3/24 (13%)Above Sector Average

Innovation / R&D1 | 4.2%

Innovation / R&D - Risk 1

Changed

We are engaged in multiple capital improvement projects. These projects, and their financing, costs, timing and effects, are based on our plans, expectations and various assumptions that may not eventuate. We may therefore be unable to timely achieve, or achieve at all, the results we expect, including as to projected additional EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA.

We are engaged in multiple capital improvement projects to diversify and enhance our revenue streams and to expand margins and profitability by reducing costs. These projects have different timelines, returns on investment and risk profiles. In addition, we must raise significant additional capital to complete some of our projects, including our CCS project. Our expected financial and other results from these projects are based on assumptions around many factors, including their costs, timing, operation and market prices prevailing at project completion and thereafter, as well as tax and other favorable environmental attributes associated with low carbon alcohol that may accrue to our benefit. For example, our assumptions around the anticipated results of our CCS project rely heavily on the tax benefits that may accrue to us under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 as well as other favorable environmental attributes associated with carbon capture and storage and low carbon alcohol production. These tax and other benefits may change, including as a result of new or repealed laws, new administrations and the implementation or interpretation of existing laws, or the exhaustion of funds or benefits available under a particular program. We can provide no assurances that any particular benefit will be available to us upon completion of our CCS project, or thereafter, or any other capital improvement project. Capital improvement projects require significant outlays of capital and are often subject to material execution risks and delays. Our CCS project in particular requires Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA, approval but the EPA's own projected timeline for approval has lengthened and may lengthen further. We may have insufficient financial resources, and we may be unable to raise sufficient capital, to complete our projects timely or at all. Although we intend to use reputable third-party contractors with expertise in their fields to implement our projects, adverse conditions and events as well as delays in capital projects are not uncommon. Moreover, the projects' interaction with existing processes may result in the degradation of other plant operations. For example, operation of our corn oil and high protein system at our Magic Valley facility previously resulted in inconsistent product quality and degraded other operations at the plant, including production rates. In the past, we have extended our expected completion dates for various projects and, as circumstances require, may have to do so again. In addition, our CCS project may be adversely affected by the SAFE CCS Act or the United States Supreme Court's decision in the case of Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., or both, as discussed below. We can provide no assurances that our projects will be completed, or if completed, will be completed timely. We also can provide no assurances that our project assumptions will reflect prevailing future conditions or that our projects will achieve the results we expect, including as to projected additional EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA. Failure to achieve our expected results may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Cyber Security1 | 4.2%

Cyber Security - Risk 1

Cyberattacks through security vulnerabilities could lead to disruption of our business, reduced revenue, increased costs, liability claims, or harm to our reputation or competitive position.

Security vulnerabilities may arise from our hardware, software, employees, contractors or policies we have deployed, which may result in external parties gaining access to our networks, data centers, cloud data centers, corporate computers, manufacturing systems, and/or access to accounts we have at our suppliers, vendors or customers. External parties may gain access to our data or our customers' data, or attack the networks causing denial of service or attempt to hold our data or systems in ransom. The vulnerability could be caused by inadequate account security practices such as the failure to timely remove employee access when terminated. To mitigate these security issues, we have implemented measures throughout our organization, including firewalls, backups, encryption, employee information technology policies and user account policies. However, there can be no assurance that these measures will be sufficient to avoid cyberattacks. If any of these types of security breaches were to occur and we were unable to protect sensitive data, our relationships with our business partners and customers could be materially damaged, our reputation could be materially harmed, and we could be exposed to a risk of litigation and possible significant liability. Further, if we fail to adequately maintain our information technology infrastructure, we may have outages and data loss. Excessive outages may affect our ability to timely and efficiently deliver products to customers or develop new products. Such disruptions and data loss may adversely impact our ability to fulfill orders and interrupt other processes. Delayed sales or lost customers resulting from these disruptions could adversely affect our financial results, stock price and reputation. Our and our business partners' or contractors' failure to fully comply with applicable data privacy or similar laws could lead to significant fines and require onerous corrective action. In addition, data security breaches experienced by us or our business partners or contractors could result in the loss of trade secrets or other intellectual property, public disclosure of sensitive commercial data, and the exposure of personally identifiable information (including sensitive personal information) of our employees, customers, suppliers, contractors and others. Unauthorized use or disclosure of, or access to, any personal information maintained by us or on our behalf, whether through breach of our systems, breach of the systems of our suppliers or vendors by an unauthorized party, or through employee or contractor error, theft or misuse, or otherwise, could harm our business. If any such unauthorized use or disclosure of, or access to, such personal information was to occur, our operations could be seriously disrupted, and we could be subject to demands, claims and litigation by private parties, and investigations, related actions, and penalties by regulatory authorities. In addition, we could incur significant costs in notifying affected persons and entities and otherwise complying with the multitude of foreign, federal, state and local laws and regulations relating to the unauthorized access to, or use or disclosure of, personal information. Finally, any perceived or actual unauthorized access to, or use or disclosure of, such information could harm our reputation, substantially impair our ability to attract and retain customers and have an adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Technology1 | 4.2%

Technology - Risk 1

Our alcohol production relies on traditional corn-based feedstock and process technologies. New technologies could make corn-based alcohol production and traditional process technologies less competitive or even obsolete, materially and adversely harming our business.

We produce our alcohols from corn. Moreover, our plants are constructed and operate exclusively as corn-based alcohol production facilities. Competitors and other third parties have undertaken research to develop competing products to corn-based alcohols, and ethanol in particular, as well as new process technologies. These research efforts seek alternatives to corn-based ethanol and traditional process technologies aimed at improving real or perceived problems with the fuel, such as the carbon and energy intensity of its production, its lower energy content compared to gasoline and its hydrophobic nature resulting in water separation in transit or at other times. Competitors and other third parties may develop new alcohols and processes that improve on any of these or other real or perceived problems with corn-based alcohols, including ethanol. If viable competing products or new process technologies are developed and attract widespread or even modest adoption, we may be forced to modify our production facilities, including our process technologies, if possible, to transition in full or in part to these other products or process technologies to remain competitive. Modifying our production facilities may require expertise that our personnel may not possess and would likely require significant capital expenditures the funding for which we may not have. An inability to remain competitive due to the introduction and adoption of competing products or new process technologies, or significant costs associated with the adoption of new products and process technologies, would materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Ability to Sell

Total Risks: 1/24 (4%)Below Sector Average

Demand1 | 4.2%

Demand - Risk 1

Future demand for fuel-grade ethanol is uncertain and may be affected by changes to federal mandates, public perception, consumer acceptance and overall consumer demand for transportation fuel, any of which could negatively affect demand for fuel-grade ethanol and our results of operations.

Although many trade groups, academics and governmental agencies support ethanol as a fuel additive that promotes a cleaner environment, others criticize fuel-grade ethanol production and use as consuming considerably more energy and emitting more greenhouse gases than other biofuels and potentially depleting water resources. Some studies suggest that corn-based ethanol is less efficient than ethanol produced from other feedstock and that it negatively impacts consumers by causing increased prices for dairy, meat and other food generated from livestock that consume corn. Additionally, critics of fuel-grade ethanol contend that corn supplies are redirected from international food markets to domestic fuel markets. If negative views of corn-based ethanol production gain broader acceptance, support for existing measures promoting use and domestic production of corn-based ethanol as a fuel additive could decline, leading to a reduction or repeal of federal ethanol usage mandates, which would materially and adversely affect the demand for fuel-grade ethanol. These views could also negatively impact public perception of the fuel-grade ethanol industry and acceptance of ethanol as an alternative fuel. There are limited markets for fuel-grade ethanol beyond those established by federal mandates. Discretionary blending and E85 blending (i.e., gasoline blended with up to 85% fuel-grade ethanol by volume) are important secondary markets. Discretionary blending is often determined by the price of fuel-grade ethanol relative to the price of gasoline. In periods when discretionary blending is financially unattractive, the demand for fuel-grade ethanol may decline. Also, the demand for fuel-grade ethanol is affected by the overall demand for transportation fuel. Demand for transportation fuel is affected by the number of miles traveled by consumers and vehicle fuel economy. Lower demand for fuel-grade ethanol and essential ingredients, including through the transition by consumers to alternative fuel vehicles such as electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, would reduce the value of our ethanol and related products, erode our overall margins and diminish our ability to generate revenue or to operate profitably. In addition, we believe that additional consumer acceptance of E15 and E85 fuels is necessary before fuel-grade ethanol can achieve any significant growth in market share relative to other transportation fuels.

Macro & Political

Total Risks: 1/24 (4%)Below Sector Average

Economy & Political Environment1 | 4.2%

Economy & Political Environment - Risk 1

Inflation and sustained higher prices may adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition.

We have experienced adverse inflationary impacts on key production inputs, wages and other costs of labor, equipment, services, and other business expenses. In addition, we have experienced adverse inflationary impacts on our budgets and expenses for many of our in-process and planned capital projects. Inflation and its negative impacts could escalate in future periods. Even if inflation stabilizes or abates, the prices of key production inputs, wages and other costs of labor, equipment, services, and other business expenses, and for our capital projects, may remain at elevated levels. We may not be able to include these additional costs in the prices of the products we sell. As a result, inflation and sustained higher prices may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.

FAQ

What are “Risk Factors”?

Risk factors are any situations or occurrences that could make investing in a company risky.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that publicly traded companies disclose their most significant risk factors. This is so that potential investors can consider any risks before they make an investment.

They also offer companies protection, as a company can use risk factors as liability protection. This could happen if a company underperforms and investors take legal action as a result.

It is worth noting that smaller companies, that is those with a public float of under $75 million on the last business day, do not have to include risk factors in their 10-K and 10-Q forms, although some may choose to do so.

How do companies disclose their risk factors?

Publicly traded companies initially disclose their risk factors to the SEC through their S-1 filings as part of the IPO process.

Additionally, companies must provide a complete list of risk factors in their Annual Reports (Form 10-K) or (Form 20-F) for “foreign private issuers”.

Quarterly Reports also include a section on risk factors (Form 10-Q) where companies are only required to update any changes since the previous report.

According to the SEC, risk factors should be reported concisely, logically and in “plain English” so investors can understand them.

How can I use TipRanks risk factors in my stock research?

Use the Risk Factors tab to get data about the risk factors of any company in which you are considering investing.

You can easily see the most significant risks a company is facing. Additionally, you can find out which risk factors a company has added, removed or adjusted since its previous disclosure. You can also see how a company’s risk factors compare to others in its sector.

Without reading company reports or participating in conference calls, you would most likely not have access to this sort of information, which is usually not included in press releases or other public announcements.

A simplified analysis of risk factors is unique to TipRanks.

What are all the risk factor categories?

TipRanks has identified 6 major categories of risk factors and a number of subcategories for each. You can see how these categories are broken down in the list below.

1. Financial & Corporate

Accounting & Financial Operations - risks related to accounting loss, value of intangible assets, financial statements, value of intangible assets, financial reporting, estimates, guidance, company profitability, dividends, fluctuating results.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights – risks related to things that impact share prices and the rights of shareholders, including analyst ratings, major shareholder activity, trade volatility, liquidity of shares, anti-takeover provisions, international listing, dual listing.
Debt & Financing – risks related to debt, funding, financing and interest rates, financial investments.
Corporate Activity and Growth – risks related to restructuring, M&As, joint ventures, execution of corporate strategy, strategic alliances.

2. Legal & Regulatory

Litigation and Legal Liabilities – risks related to litigation/ lawsuits against the company.
Regulation – risks related to compliance, GDPR, and new legislation.
Environmental / Social – risks related to environmental regulation and to data privacy.
Taxation & Government Incentives – risks related to taxation and changes in government incentives.

3. Production

Costs – risks related to costs of production including commodity prices, future contracts, inventory.
Supply Chain – risks related to the company’s suppliers.
Manufacturing – risks related to the company’s manufacturing process including product quality and product recalls.
Human Capital – risks related to recruitment, training and retention of key employees, employee relationships & unions labor disputes, pension, and post retirement benefits, medical, health and welfare benefits, employee misconduct, employee litigation.

4. Technology & Innovation

Innovation / R&D – risks related to innovation and new product development.
Technology – risks related to the company’s reliance on technology.
Cyber Security – risks related to securing the company’s digital assets and from cyber attacks.
Trade Secrets & Patents – risks related to the company’s ability to protect its intellectual property and to infringement claims against the company as well as piracy and unlicensed copying.

5. Ability to Sell

Demand – risks related to the demand of the company’s goods and services including seasonality, reliance on key customers.
Competition – risks related to the company’s competition including substitutes.
Sales & Marketing – risks related to sales, marketing, and distribution channels, pricing, and market penetration.
Brand & Reputation – risks related to the company’s brand and reputation.

6. Macro & Political

Economy & Political Environment – risks related to changes in economic and political conditions.
Natural and Human Disruptions – risks related to catastrophes, floods, storms, terror, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic/COVID-19.
International Operations – risks related to the global nature of the company.
Capital Markets – risks related to exchange rates and trade, cryptocurrency.

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