Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 47.39%
• EPS Growth: 85.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,679
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 204,296,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,908,850
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,780,049
• PEG Ratio: 54.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 72.99
• 1Y Price Target: $25.14
• Price Target Upside: 44.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.19B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(3.81% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (rapid revenue growth, turnaround toward profitability, and sharply reduced leverage) and a strong, growth-oriented 2026 outlook from management. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technicals and limited valuation support given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Membership & Revenue Growth

Sustained, high single-digit to double-digit membership growth and large revenue increases indicate durable demand and scalable distribution in the Medicare Advantage market. Persistent enrollment growth improves revenue visibility, supports unit-cost dilution as SG&A scales, and strengthens long-term market position.

Profitability Turnaround & Margin Expansion

The move from sustained operating losses to positive adjusted EBITDA and material margin expansion demonstrates the business model is achieving operating leverage. If maintained, this shift supports reinvestment, durable free cash flow generation, and reduces dependence on external capital over the medium term.

Stronger Liquidity & Cash Generation

A return to positive operating and free cash flow, plus a large cash balance, materially de-risks the capital structure and funds growth initiatives. Robust liquidity and an undrawn $200M revolver increase financial flexibility to support network contracting, state expansions, and technology investments.

Negative Factors

Regulatory & Rate Uncertainty

Near-flat Medicare rate guidance and the V28 risk-model phase-in create structural reimbursement uncertainty that can compress margins industry-wide. Persistent CMS policy shifts complicate multi-year pricing, reserve setting, and strategic expansion decisions, raising execution risk for MA underwriting.

Higher First-Year Medical Benefit Ratio from Mix

A strategic shift toward higher-need LIS/dual members increases first-year medical cost ratios structurally, pressuring near-term adjusted gross profit and EBITDA margins. While long-term lifetime value may be positive, this mix creates durable headwinds to margin consistency during growth phases.

Inconsistent Margins & Historical Cash-Flow Variability

Despite 2025 improvement, historically uneven margins and periods of negative operating cash flow signal volatility in core unit economics. Thin profitability and limited disclosure around gross margin reduce confidence in sustainable earnings power absent consistent MBR control and predictable utilization trends.

Alignment Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alignment Healthcare, Inc., a tech-enabled Medicare advantage company, operates consumer-centric health care platform. It provides customized health care in the United States to seniors and those who need it through its Medicare advantage plans. The company owns Medicare advantage plans in the states of California, North Carolina, and Nevada. It also coordinates and provides covered health care services, including professional, institutional, and ancillary services to members enrolled in certain benefit plans of unaffiliated Medicare Advantage Health Maintenance Organizations. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Orange, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Alignment Healthcare primarily makes money by enrolling eligible Medicare beneficiaries into its Medicare Advantage plans and receiving monthly payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) on a per-member basis. Revenue is largely driven by: (1) CMS capitation payments: fixed per-member-per-month payments that are risk-adjusted based on member health status and other factors; Alignment earns a margin when total medical costs and administrative expenses are lower than the capitation revenue. (2) Member premiums: in some plans members may pay additional premiums (including plan premiums beyond the Medicare Part B premium), which contribute to total premium revenue. (3) Quality/Star-related economics: Medicare Advantage payment levels and bonus opportunities are influenced by CMS Star Ratings and related quality programs; improved performance can increase plan revenue and competitiveness through enhanced benefits funded by higher benchmarks/bonuses. (4) Ancillary items such as pharmacy-related economics: Medicare Advantage plans that include Part D often involve premium and CMS-related payments tied to prescription drug coverage; the company’s overall profitability depends on managing pharmacy costs and benefit design. Key factors affecting earnings include medical cost utilization (inpatient, outpatient, physician, and pharmacy spend), the company’s ability to manage risk adjustment accurately and compliantly, enrollment growth and retention, and contracting with provider networks and other healthcare partners to deliver care at negotiated rates. Significant partnerships: null

Alignment Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and a clear improvement toward breakeven profitability in 2025, alongside a healthier balance sheet with sharply lower debt. Offsetting factors include still-thin and inconsistent margins, limited clarity from the reported 2025 gross profit/margin data point, and historically uneven cash-flow consistency despite the 2025 turnaround to positive operating and free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong over the period (from ~$0.96B in 2020 to ~$3.95B in 2025), with a particularly large step-up in 2024. Profitability has materially improved: the company moved from sizable operating losses in 2021–2024 to slightly positive operating income in 2025, and net losses narrowed to near breakeven in 2025. Offsetting this, margins have been inconsistent and generally weak (net margin negative in most years, and 2025 profitability is still very thin), and the 2025 gross profit/margin appears to be reported as zero, which reduces visibility into core unit economics.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically in 2025, with total debt falling sharply versus 2024 and debt relative to equity dropping to a very low level, which meaningfully de-risks the capital structure. Equity also increased versus 2024, supporting a stronger balance sheet profile. The main weakness is that returns on equity remain negative given the company is still slightly unprofitable, and the balance sheet showed elevated leverage as recently as 2024, indicating prior volatility in capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened meaningfully in 2025, with solid positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, a notable turnaround from negative free cash flow in 2021–2024. However, free cash flow declined year over year in 2025, and cash flow results have been uneven historically (including several years of negative operating cash flow), which lowers confidence in consistency. The relationship between cash flow and earnings is also distorted in loss years, so underlying sustainability should be monitored.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.95B	2.70B	1.82B	1.43B	1.17B
Gross Profit	488.56M	296.69M	201.03M	184.28M	128.73M
EBITDA	45.24M	-77.44M	-105.30M	-113.53M	-161.81M
Net Income	-724.00K	-128.03M	-148.02M	-149.55M	-195.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.07B	782.06M	591.88M	633.86M	630.89M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	577.94M	470.65M	318.82M	409.55M	466.60M
Total Debt	338.07M	329.26M	170.79M	164.60M	157.59M
Total Liabilities	886.51M	681.11M	433.81M	394.56M	324.84M
Stockholders Equity	179.28M	99.85M	156.95M	238.13M	306.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	113.15M	-6.65M	-95.18M	-69.20M	-97.14M
Operating Cash Flow	139.93M	34.77M	-59.19M	-45.43M	-78.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-14.97M	39.19M	-147.26M	-28.22M	-20.82M
Financing Cash Flow	18.04M	156.03M	105.00K	16.59M	360.13M

Alignment Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.54, below the 50-day MA of 20.42, and above the 200-day MA of 17.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALHC.

Alignment Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OSCR	61 Neutral	$3.76B	-8.51	-39.45%	―	37.38%	-912.18%
ALHC	60 Neutral	$3.54B	-88.83	-0.49%	―	47.39%	85.35%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CNC	51 Neutral	$16.92B	-3.03	-27.74%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
CLOV	50 Neutral	$991.62M	-14.21	-25.73%	―	15.23%	38.79%
MOH	49 Neutral	$7.18B	18.68	10.99%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	47 Neutral	$20.40B	25.97	6.59%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%

Alignment Healthcare Corporate Events

Alignment Healthcare announces secondary offering by major shareholder

On March 2, 2026, Alignment Healthcare, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and a selling stockholder for an underwritten secondary offering of 13,167,733 shares of the company’s common stock held by that stockholder. The transaction closed on March 4, 2026, with customary representations, warranties, covenants and indemnification obligations among the parties.

The company did not receive any proceeds from this sale, as all shares were sold by the existing stockholder, effectively increasing the public float without raising new capital for Alignment Healthcare. The offering was conducted under an automatically effective shelf registration on Form S-3ASR, reinforcing the company’s access to public capital markets and liquidity for existing investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALHC) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alignment Healthcare stock, see the ALHC Stock Forecast page.

Alignment Healthcare Reports Strong Medicare Advantage Membership Growth

On January 12, 2026, Alignment Healthcare reported that its Medicare Advantage health plan membership rose 31% year over year to approximately 275,300 as of January 1, 2026, extending a roughly 30% compounded annual growth rate since its 2021 IPO and underscoring continued momentum in the MA market. Following a strong 2026 annual enrollment period, the company guided to 290,000 to 296,000 members by year‑end 2026 and said it expects consensus adjusted EBITDA of about $145 million in 2026 to fall within its forthcoming full‑year guidance range, while reaffirming its previously issued 2025 outlook for membership, revenue, adjusted gross profit and adjusted EBITDA; management highlighted that 100% of members remain in plans rated 4 stars or higher for the second consecutive year, reinforcing Alignment’s quality positioning and suggesting a supportive backdrop for continued scalable growth and shareholder value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALHC) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alignment Healthcare stock, see the ALHC Stock Forecast page.